Economic and Demographic Trends in the Mid-Appalachia …



Economic and Demographic Trends

in the Mid-Appalachia Region

By

MDC, Inc.

June 2002

Economic and Demographic Trends

in the Mid-Appalachia Region

Executive Summary

Home to 7,591,467 people, the 214 counties of the Mid-Appalachia region are characterized by their mountainous geography and history of poverty. Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia's Appalachian counties have economies that were historically based on natural resource extraction and low-skill, low-wage manufacturing; the demise of both leaves many counties that have not diversified economically in a situation of distress or decline and out-migration. Even while much of the rest of the South saw booming economies in the 1990s with population and job growth that led the nation, the Mid-Appalachia region remained behind.

This analysis presents an economic and demographic profile of the Appalachia regions of Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia based on an analysis conducted by MDC, Inc., a private nonprofit development organization based in Chapel Hill, NC, and focusing on the South. The goal of this profile is to provide a context for determining the region's challenges to progress as well as opportunities for action by an institute on rural journalism.

Major Findings:

• Entrenched Challenges: In this global age where a local economy's performance is tied to that of its state and the nation, the failure of much of Appalachia to thrive during the booming 90s indicates entrenched challenges that will continue to compromise the region's well-being. Much of the region's economic base is retrenching and is concentrated in low-growth or declining industries and low-wage services, while booming areas of the South had more diversified economic and occupational mixes with high growth in services, durable goods manufacturing, health care, and retail.

• Economic Distress: While some counties are in markedly better economic shape than they were in 1990, the overall number of counties in distress has increased. In 1980, 59 of the 214 Appalachia counties in these five states were classified as "distressed" by the Appalachian Regional Commission. In 1990, this figure increased to 78 of 214 counties. In 2000, this figure increased to 83 counties. The number of jobs per 100 people and the unemployment rates underscore the lack of economic opportunity in the region, as do the low per capita income rates. The types of jobs available in the region account in part for both income levels and the number of jobs available.

• Poverty: Poverty continues to be an extreme challenge to the region. In 1997, 16.1 percent of Mid-Appalachia's total population lived in poverty, as compared to 13.3 percent of the U.S. population. Owsley County, Kentucky, had the dubious distinction of the highest poverty rate in the Mid-Appalachia region that year, with 40.9 percent of its total population and 50 percent of its children living in poverty.

• Education: The Mid-Appalachia region's adult population is also markedly less educated than that of the U.S. In the year 2000, of those age 25 years and older in the U.S., 51.7 percent has at least some education beyond high school, and only 19.6 percent has less than a high school diploma. In Mid-Appalachia, only 38.9 percent has any education beyond high school, and a staggering 27.5 percent — more than a quarter of the adult population — has not completed high school. In a knowledge economy where education is increasingly critical for economic survival, these statistics shed a great deal of light on why poverty is so entrenched in the region.

• Aging: The population of Mid-Appalachia is markedly older than that of the U.S. as a whole, with 39.2 percent of its population age 45 or older as compared to 34.4 percent for the U.S. The region's youth make up only 22.6 percent of the population, versus the U.S. figure of 25.7 percent. These figures indicate that the region is left with an aging workforce and fewer young people to potentially fill the gap left by those leaving the workforce. In the remainder of the South, the population is aging but not at such extreme levels, and the gap of younger workers is being filled by foreign-born immigrants drawn by job growth. The lack of jobs in Mid-Appalachia disallows such an opportunity and reinforces the downward spiral.

• Opportunity: While the aggregate statistics indicate major challenges, the region does include economically vital communities and a wealth of educational resources. Many metro, resort, and retirement areas within the region have seen a great deal of economic progress in the past 10 years, and these areas can be part of a strong foundation for the region at large. Another crucial piece of that foundation is the higher education infrastructure; the 214 counties of Mid-Appalachia include 104 institutions of higher education for the strengthening of the region's human capital and its civic and economic infrastructure.

Economic and Demographic Trends

in the Mid-Appalachia Region

Introduction and Notes on Data

Home to 7,591,467 people, the 214 counties of the Mid-Appalachia region are characterized by their mountainous geography and history of poverty. Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia's Appalachian counties have economies that were historically based on natural resource extraction and low-skill, low-wage manufacturing; the demise of both leaves many counties that have not diversified economically in a situation of distress or decline and out-migration.

The basic foundation for economic progress is a community's capacity to do two things: bring dollars into a community and keep those dollars within the community. While the factors related to these two functions are numerous, economic diversity is key. An economy that is concentrated in low-profit, declining industries such as natural resource extraction or low-skill manufacturing has much less dollar-importing capacity than an economy that also includes a mix of tourism, high-end professional services, and other value-added industries. A diversified economy also allows a community the flexibility and resilience to weather economic shifts.

Even while much of the rest of the South saw booming economies in the 1990s with population and job growth that led the nation, the Mid-Appalachia region remained behind. While metropolitan and high-amenity areas in the region experienced healthy progress and provide an asset for the region to build upon, the majority of the region, faced with a preponderance of declining and low-wage industries and an undereducated, aging workforce, has been faced with economic stagnation or distress.

This analysis presents an economic and demographic profile of the Appalachian regions of Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia based on an analysis of 10-year trends conducted by MDC, Inc., a private nonprofit development organization based in Chapel Hill, NC, and focusing on the South.

Founded in 1967, MDC's mission is to advance the South through strategies that expand opportunity, reduce poverty, and build inclusive communities. The organization analyzes trends to identify challenges that impede progress for the South and its people, and it addresses those challenges from multiple angles, including informing the public dialog through resources such as its State of the South reports, a biennial analysis of the South's economy and how Southerners are faring in it.

The goal of this profile is to provide a context for determining the region's challenges to progress as well as opportunities for action by an institute on rural journalism. The analysis aims to answer the following research questions:

• In Mid-Appalachia counties, what are the total population, population density, and composition by age, race, and gender? How has the population changed over the past 10 years?

• How does mid-Appalachia compare to the rest of the United States in terms of per capita income, home ownership, and unemployment? How many people are living in poverty, and how many children? What are the longer-term trends?

• What are the predominant industries and occupations in Mid-Appalachia? Are these industries growing, stagnant, or declining?

• What percentage of the adult population has a high school education? A college education? How does this compare to the rest of the United States? What postsecondary education and vocational training opportunities are available?

Definition of Terms:

"Mid-Appalachia" and "the region" refer to the Appalachian counties of Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia, as those counties are defined by the federal government's Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC).

"State Appalachia," such as "Kentucky Appalachia," refers to Appalachian counties within that state.

"State Appalachia Median County," such as "Kentucky Appalachia Median County," refers to the county with the median statistical figure within the Appalachian counties of that state.

"State Name," such as "Kentucky," refers to the entire state of Kentucky, including the Appalachian counties.

Notes on Data:

The data for this analysis is included in the appendix. The data sets are: Demographics, Economics, Details of Population by Age, Mining Employment, Location of Higher Education Institutions, and Educational Attainment*. Each state data section is organized alphabetically by county.

All counties in West Virginia are included in the Appalachian region; therefore, we do not include a separate data point for "West Virginia Appalachia."

Metro areas or proximity to a metro area in NC, TN, VA, and WV skew some of the data, as do prosperous resort areas in parts of VA and WV. For this reason, we present state Appalachia area figures and the state Appalachia median figures for a fuller picture where appropriate.

Where available, data is provided on the county level. This analysis has required multiple sources of data, and sources are indicated on the data tables attached. The most recent data available at the county level has been used.

Overview

Overall, the Mid-Appalachia region remains mostly rural, lower-growth, less densely populated, much less diverse, older, poorer, and less educated than the states of which it is comprised and the U.S. In an economy that through the 1990s rewarded metropolitan and high-amenity areas with highly educated workers, such characteristics did not bode well for Mid-Appalachia's economy or people. While metro and resort areas in the region did as well or better than their respective states in terms of economic and demographic growth, other areas made little or no progress. In this global age where a local economy's performance is tied to that of its state and the nation, the failure of much of Appalachia to thrive during the booming 90s indicates entrenched challenges that will continue to compromise the region's well-being.

Demography

Population growth from 1990 to 2000 in Mid-Appalachia was only 9.5 percent, compared to the U.S. rate of 13.1 percent. State Appalachia regions lagged each state's growth in all cases and also lagged U.S. rates, with the exception of NC Appalachia and TN Appalachia, which include major metropolitan areas. (See Figure 1.)

Population density of each state's Appalachia region lags its state as well, with the exception of Tennessee due to Chattanooga and Knoxville. The most mountainous areas of Mid-Appalachia — Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia — had population densities significantly lower than their North Carolina and Tennessee counterparts. (See Figure 2.)

Mid-Appalachia's population continues to be nearly all-white, with only NC Appalachia having people of color comprise more than 10 percent of its population. NC Appalachia's greater diversity is reflective of the state's having the country's highest growth rate for Hispanic population from 1990 to 2000. Mid-Appalachia's population was markedly less diverse than the country as a whole: the region's population was 92.5 percent white, 4.8 percent African American, 1.6 percent Hispanic, and .9 percent other, while the U.S. figures were 75.1 percent white, 12.3 percent African American, 12.5 percent Hispanic, and 4.5 percent other. (See Figure 3.)

The population of Mid-Appalachia is markedly older than that of the U.S. as a whole, with 39.2 percent of its population age 45 or older as compared to 34.4 percent for the U.S. The region's retirement age population is higher, with 14.4 percent age 65 or older, with the U.S. figure at 12.4 percent. The region's youth make up only 22.6 percent of the population, versus the U.S. figure of 25.7 percent. (See Figure 4.)

These figures indicate that the region is left with an aging workforce and fewer young people to potentially fill the gap left by those leaving the workforce. In the remainder of the South, the population is aging but not at such extreme levels, and the gap of younger workers is being filled by foreign-born immigrants drawn by job growth. The lack of jobs (see Economy section below) in Mid-Appalachia disallows such an opportunity and reinforces the downward spiral. The region's high median age in 2000, 37.9 years as opposed to the U.S. figure of 35.3 years, confirms that challenge. (See Figure 5.)

The Mid-Appalachia region's adult population is also markedly less educated than that of the U.S. In the year 200, of those age 25 years and older in the U.S., 28.6 percent of the population has a high school diploma only, and 51.7 percent has at least some education beyond high school. Only 19.6 percent had less than a high school diploma. In Mid-Appalachia, while 34 percent has a high school diploma only, only 38.9 percent has any education beyond high school, and a staggering 27.5 percent — more than a quarter of the adult population — has not completed high school. Only 18 of the 214 counties had a lower percentage than the U.S. of adults with less than a high school diploma. (See Figure 6.)

Economy

Economic possibilities for counties in Mid-Appalachia vary widely due to terrain, available services, and infrastructure. The ARC distressed counties map (see Figure 7) indicates those counties which, as of 2000, were considered to have the most "structurally disadvantaged economies" as determined by poverty, unemployment, and per capita market income rates.

In 1997, 16.1 percent of Mid-Appalachia's total population lived in poverty, as compared to 13.3 percent of the U.S. population. (See Figure 8.)

For all five states studied, per capita personal income (PCI) in 1999 was significantly less than for the U.S., and the PCI of each state's Appalachia region was even lower than the state PCI. The Mid-Appalachia region's figure was $21,954, and the U.S. figure was $28,546, a full 30 percent higher. (See Figure 9.) The PCI figure for the median county in each state's Appalachia region was even lower than each state's Appalachia region figure, indicating an upward skew due to a few counties with higher-than-typical figures.

Despite having significant leeway to make up ground in PCI between 1990 and 1999, only Virginia's Appalachia region managed to grow at a rate higher than its state, and VA Appalachia still ended with a PCI at only 75 percent of its state PCI. The below-state-level increases indicate that Mid-Appalachia was not able to take advantage of economic opportunities in even the most prosperous of times, and some of the counties fell even farther behind their states and the country. (See Figure 10.)

The average wage per job is certainly a factor in the region's low per capita income and high poverty rates. In 2000, the average wage per job in the U.S. was $34, 652, a full 32.3 percent higher than the Mid-Appalachia figure of $26,194. (See Figure 11.) Each state's Appalachia region lagged the state considerably; and in every case, the figure for the Appalachia region's median county was lower than the state's Appalachia region, again indicating the figures were skewed high by a few counties.

The percent increase in average wage per job from 1990 to 2000 again indicates a region unprepared to take advantage of economic opportunity and falling farther behind the U.S. and the involved states. The Mid-Appalachia increase of 35.02 percent is a full 13.4 percentage points behind the U.S. increase of 48.6 percent. (See Figure 12.)

The number of jobs per 100 people and the unemployment rates underscore the lack of opportunity in the region. At 53.09 jobs per 100 people, the region's rate is well below the U.S.'s 59.51 jobs per 100 people, and the median county's number of jobs per 100 people in each state's Appalachia region is below the state level in every single case. (See Figure 13.) Regarding unemployment, the figure for the median county in each state's Appalachia region was higher than the U.S., and with the exception of North Carolina, also higher than its state rate. (See Figure 14.)

The types of jobs available in the region account in part for both income levels and the number of jobs available. Traditional resource-based industries — farming and mining — declined in each of the five states between 1978 and 1997. Nondurable goods manufacturing — chemicals, textiles and apparel, and tobacco — all saw significant declines in the states from 1978 to 1997. Still, manufacturing, services, and government occupations account for the majority of jobs in Mid-Appalachia.

The more mountainous states have few options for placement of manufacturing facilities, as reflected in the low percentage of jobs in manufacturing. The higher figures in North Carolina and Tennessee are accounted for mainly with traditional manufacturing, the number of jobs in which is declining in most industries due to technology replacing workers and to global competition. (See Figure 15.)

Service and retail employment were areas of huge growth in the South in general from 1978 to 1997, with health and business services being areas with continued booming growth. Each state Appalachia region showed a percentage of jobs in services lower than the U.S. and lower than its state in 2000, indicating a lack of economic diversification and consistent with the areas' low population growth rates. (See Figure 16.)

In all but Tennessee, a higher percentage of jobs are in the government sector in Mid-Appalachia than in the U.S. Counties with high poverty rates and high government sector employment are a particular problem. No fewer than eight of the 10 counties with the highest poverty rates in each state's Appalachia region had a government sector employment rate higher than the United States figure. These statistics indicate an overreliance on public sector employment and an undiversified economy with a lack of other opportunities, both of which bode poorly for economic growth. While a public economy is better than no economy and more stable than some, it has very low growth potential, providing little opportunity to lower poverty levels. (See Figure 17.)

Availability of higher education in Mid-Appalachia does offer a resource for strengthening the region's workforce and its economy. While geography and transportation are major issues in accessing education, the number of institutions does offer some hope. However, higher education institutions do tend to be located in the (relatively) more prosperous counties, as indicated by the location of Wal-Mart stores, which for the most part do not locate in counties with higher poverty rates. In addition, higher education institutions are both a mechanism for importing dollars into a community, through student tuition and spending at a minimum, and through exporting knowledge, research, and services at a maximum.

State Profiles

Kentucky

• In educational attainment in the year 2000, every county in the KY Appalachia region had a higher percentage of adults age 25 and above with less than a high school diploma than the U.S. figure of 19.6 percent. Of the 10 KY Appalachia counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty, 42.5 percent or more of their adults age 25 and above had less than a high school diploma.

• Every county in the KY Appalachia region had a higher percentage of people living in poverty than the U.S.'s 13.3 percent and a higher percentage of children living in poverty than the U.S.'s 19.9 percent in 1997. Forty-seven of the 49 counties had rates higher than Kentucky's 16 percent of all people. The KY Appalachia median county's figure was 26.1 percent.

• Every county in the KY Appalachia region had a 1999 per capita income rate lower than the U.S. rate, and 47 of the 49 counties had a PCI figure below the state figure.

• In terms of jobs per 100 people in 2000, 45 of 49 KY Appalachia counties were below both the U.S. and KY figures. The KY Appalachia median county's figure was an astonishing 22.28 jobs lower than the U.S. figure of 59.51 jobs per hundred people.

• The 2000 average wage per job in every KY Appalachia county was lower than in the U.S.'s $34,652, and 45 of 49 Appalachia counties were also below KY's $28,100 figure.

• The 10 KY Appalachia counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty all had a percent increase in the average wage per job from 1990 to 2000 that was below the U.S. increase, and eight of the 10 had a rate below that of KY.

• Forty of the 49 KY Appalachia counties had unemployment figures higher than the U.S. in 2001.

• In the occupational mix, manufacturing was underrepresented in the highest poverty counties in 2000. All but one of the 49 KY Appalachia counties had a service employment rate lower than the U.S. The 10 KY Appalachia counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty all had government employment rates well above the U.S. and KY rates, and nine of the 10 were among the 15 counties with the highest government employment rate.

• The three highest coal employment counties in 2000 are in top-five wage counties, and it's a dying industry, indicating future decline in those counties.

North Carolina

• In educational attainment in the year 2000, all but six counties in the NC Appalachia region had a higher percentage of adults age 25 and above with less than a high school diploma than the U.S. figure of 19.6 percent.

• Fifteen of the 29 NC Appalachia counties had a percentage of people living in poverty equal to or higher than the U.S. rate in 1997. The lower poverty rate in the remaining counties is attributable in part to their being in metropolitan, resort, or retirement areas. The percentage of children living in poverty follows the same lines, with 14 of the 29 counties being equal to or higher than the U.S. figure.

• All NC Appalachia counties were below the U.S. figure for average wage per job in 2000, and 28 of the 29 were below the NC state figure as well, with metropolitan Forsyth County being the exception. Nine of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had an average wage per job below in the NC Appalachia region's median county figure, which was approximately 30 percent lower than the U.S. figure.

• Twenty-six of the 29 NC Appalachia counties had a per capita income figure below the U.S. figure of $28,546 in 1999; 24 had a PCI below the state figure of $26,417. Nine of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had a PCI below the NC Appalachia region's median county's figure of $22,222.

• Despite a percentage increase in PCI above the U.S., NC, and NC Appalachia region figures from 1990 to 2000, all 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty still had a PCI below the U.S., state, and NC Appalachia figures.

• NC Appalachia had an extremely high reliance on manufacturing compared to the U.S. in 2000, and that manufacturing is concentrated in declining traditional industries such as tobacco processing and furniture manufacturing.

• Eight of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty in 1997 had a percentage of employment in the government sector above the state and U.S. figures in 2000, and five of the 10 were among the six counties with the highest rates of government employment.

• Twenty-three of the 29 Appalachia counties had fewer jobs per 100 people than the state at 61.41 and the United States at 59.51 jobs per 100 people in 2000.

Tennessee

• In educational attainment in the year 2000, 48 of the 50 TN Appalachia counties had a higher percentage of adults age 25 and above with less than a high school diploma than the U.S. figure of 19.6 percent. Of the 10 TN Appalachia counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty, 37.1 percent or more of their adults age 25 and above had less than a high school diploma.

• Of the 50 TN Appalachia counties, 37 had a higher percentage of people living in poverty than the United States at 13.3 percent and Tennessee at 13.6 percent in 1997. The figures follow in line for the percentage of children living in poverty, with 40 TN Appalachia counties having a percentage higher than the U.S. at 19.9 percent and TN at 18.9 percent. The majority of counties with lower percentages were metropolitan areas.

• All but one of the 50 TN Appalachia counties had a 1999 per capita income lower than the U.S. figure of $28,546, and all but two were below the TN figure of $25,548; those two were Hamilton and Knox, the counties containing Chattanooga and Knoxville. All 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had PCI below the TN Appalachia region's median county's figure of $19,245.

• Every TN Appalachia county had an average wage per job in 2000 that was below the U.S. figure of $34, 652; 45 of the 50 were below the TN figure of $29,894. Eight of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had an average wage per job below the TN Appalachia median of $23,023, and five of the 10 also were the five with the lowest average wage per job.

• All of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty in 1997 had an unemployment rate in 2001 higher than the U.S., TN Appalachia, and TN figures. Seven of the 10 were also among the 10 counties with the highest unemployment rate.

• Of the 50 TN Appalachia counties, 42 had fewer jobs per hundred than TN's 61.63 figure, and 40 had fewer than the U.S.'s 59.51 figure in 2000.

• Of the 50 counties, 45 had a higher reliance on manufacturing than the U.S., and 39 had a higher reliance than TN in 2000. Nine of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had a higher reliance on manufacturing than the U.S.

• In 2000, of the 50 counties, 47 had a lower percentage of employment in services than the U.S.'s 31.8 percent, and 46 were below TN's 28.6 percent.

• Nine of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had a higher percentage of people employed in the government sector than the state and U.S.

Virginia

• In educational attainment in the year 2000, 21 of 23 counties in the VA Appalachia region had a higher percentage of adults age 25 and above with less than a high school diploma than the U.S. figure of 19.6 percent. Of the 10 VA Appalachia counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty, 29.8 percent or more of their adults age 25 and above had less than a high school diploma.

• Of the 23 VA Appalachia counties in 1997, 18 had a higher percentage of people living in poverty than the state's 11.6 percent, and 16 had a higher percentage than the U.S.'s 13.3 percent.

• All five of the counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty in 1997 were among the seven counties with the highest percentage of people employed in mining in 2000.

• The 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty in 1997 were also the 10 counties with the highest percentage of children living in poverty that year.

• Nine of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty in 1997 had unemployment levels in 2001 higher than the state, the VA Appalachia region, and the U.S.

• Eighteen of the 23 counties had fewer jobs per 100 in the year 2000 than the state's 62.61 figure, and 17 were below the U.S.'s 59.51 figure, including all of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty. Note that the counties with the highest numbers of jobs per 100 people have independent cities within them.

• All 23 of the VA Appalachia counties have a 1999 per capita income figure below Virginia's $29,794 and the U.S.'s $28,546. Nine of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had a PCI below the VA Appalachia region's PCI. Despite high increases in per capita income from 1990 to 1999 in VA Appalachia, the actual PCI figures indicate a huge gap remains.

• All 23 VA Appalachia counties were below the U.S.'s average wage per job of $34,652 in the year 2000 and below VA's figure of $34,655. The state's figure was a dramatic 21 percent higher than the highest county in the VA Appalachia region.

• Despite significant room for improvement, seven of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty in 1997 were among the nine counties with the lowest percentage increase in average wage per job from 1990 to 2000.

• Eleven of the 23 Appalachia counties had employment in manufacturing above the U.S. figure of 11.4 percent in 2000, indicating an overreliance on an occupational sector declining in the state and the U.S. However, six of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty fell well below the U.S. figure.

• All but one of the 23 counties had a percentage of employment in services below the state and the country in 2000. The exception was Bath County, location of The Homestead Resort and several snow-skiing areas.

• All of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had government employment rates higher than the U.S. in 2000.

West Virginia

• In educational attainment in the year 2000, 48 of 55 counties in the WV Appalachia region had a higher percentage of adults age 25 and above with less than a high school diploma than the U.S. figure of 19.6 percent. Nine of the 10 WV Appalachia counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty were among the 10 counties with the highest percentage of adults with less than a high school diploma. In those nine counties, 34.6 percent or more of the adults age 25 and above had less than a high school diploma.

• Forty-eight of the 55 West Virginia counties had a higher percentage of people living in poverty in 1997 than the U.S.'s 13.3 percent. The WV figure was 16.8 percent, but the state's median was 17.5 percent.

• Of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty in 1997, all had a population increase of 3.8 percent or less from 1990 to 2000. Eight of the 10 had population declines, with figures ranging from –3.8 percent to –22.4 percent. Of those eight, all but one was also among the counties with the highest percentage of employment in mining.

• Of the 55 counties, 47 had a higher percentage of children living in poverty than the U.S. in 1997; percentages of the total population living in poverty and of children in poverty tracked closely.

• Every WV county had a 1999 per capita income lower than the U.S. figure of $28,546. Seven of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty are also the seven counties with the lowest PCI, indicating an extreme lack of jobs paying a sustaining wage.

• In 2000, 48 of the 55 counties had fewer jobs per 100 than the U.S.'s 59.51; 42 of 55 counties had fewer jobs per 100 than WV's 49.46. The state median of 42.13 jobs per 100 indicates the state figure is skewed high due to a few high counties, the top four of which are metro counties. The 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty are below the median figure, and five of those are in the bottom eight counties in jobs per 100, with figures ranging from 29.46 to only 18.72.

• In 2000, all 55 counties had an average wage per job below the U.S. figure of $34,652. Eight of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had an average wage per job below the state figure of $26,217.

• In 2001, unemployment rates in WV counties ranged from 2.2 percent in metro areas to 15.4 percent. The 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty had unemployment rates higher than the U.S. rate of 4.8 percent and the state figure of 4.9 percent.

• From 1990 to 1999, 51 of the 55 counties had a percent increase in the average wage per job below the U.S. figure of 48.58 percent, despite having had huge room for improvement due to starting with such a low figure in 1990. The state figure was only a 28.26 percent increase.

• In 2000, 44 of the 55 counties had a higher percentage of employment in government than the U.S.'s 13.6 percent. Three of the 10 counties with the highest percentage of people living in poverty were in the top five in government employment, all three had population loss between 1990 and 2000, and all but one were also in the top 10 in mining employment in 2000.

Supporting Information and Data

Mining Employment

Ten Counties per State with Highest Percentage of Mining Employment

(only includes those counties for which data were disclosed in the 2000 Census)

Kentucky

|County |% Mining Employment |

|Leslie |29.3% |

|Martin |24.9% |

|Knott |21.6% |

|Pike |14.5% |

|Letcher |14.1% |

|Harlan |12.2% |

|Perry |7.9% |

|Floyd |6.8% |

|Magoffin |5.3% |

|Bell |5.2% |

North Carolina

|County |% Mining Employment |

|Mitchell |0.5% |

|Alexander |0.2% |

|Buncombe |0.1% |

|Caldwell |0.1% |

Tennessee

|County |% Mining Employment |

|Clay |6.1% |

|Cannon |3.6% |

|Rhea |0.4% |

|Blount |0.2% |

|Knox |0.2% |

|Roane |0.2% |

|Sullivan |0.2% |

|White |0.2% |

Virginia

|County |% Mining Employment |

|Buchanan |17.7% |

|Dickenson |13.9% |

|Wise |12.1% |

|Wythe |7.8% |

|Russell |4.4% |

|Lee |3.3% |

|Botetourt |1.5% |

West Virginia

|County |% Mining Employment |

|Boone |37.9% |

|Mingo |29.2% |

|Wyoming |13.1% |

|Clay |12.3% |

|McDowell |11.2% |

|Webster |9.6% |

|Calhoun |8.2% |

|Upshur |7.8% |

|Logan |6.9% |

|Gilmer |6.8% |

Location of Higher Education Institutions

Kentucky

|County |College/University |# of Wal-Mart Stores |

|Adair |Lindsey Wilson College |1 |

|Bath | | |

|Bell |Cumberland Valley Technical College |1 |

|Boyd | |2 |

|Breathitt | |1 |

|Carter |Kentucky Christian College | |

|Casey | | |

|Clark | |1 |

|Clay | |1 |

|Clinton | | |

|Cumberland | | |

|Elliott | | |

|Estill | | |

|Fleming | | |

|Floyd |Prestonsburg Community College |1 |

|Garrard | | |

|Green | | |

|Greenup |Ashland Community College | |

|Harlan |Southeast Community College |1 |

|Jackson | | |

|Johnson | |1 |

|Knott |Alice Lloyd College | |

|Knox |Union College |1 |

|Laurel |Laurel Technical College |1 |

|Lawrence | | |

|Lee | | |

|Leslie | | |

|Letcher | |1 |

|Lewis | | |

|Lincoln | |1 |

|McCreary | | |

|Madison |Berea College |2 |

| |Eastern Kentucky University | |

|Magoffin | | |

|Martin | | |

|Menifee | | |

|Monroe | | |

|Montgomery | |1 |

|Morgan | | |

|Owsley | | |

|Perry |Hazard Community College |1 |

|Pike |Pikeville College |2 |

|Powell | | |

|Pulaski |Somerset Community College |1 |

|Rockcastle | | |

|Rowan |Morehead State University |1 |

| |Rowan Technical College | |

|Russell | | |

|Wayne | |1 |

|Whitley |Cumberland College |2 |

|Wolfe | | |

North Carolina

|County |College/University |# of Wal-Mart Stores |

|Alexander | |1 |

|Alleghany | | |

|Ashe | | |

|Avery | | |

|Buncombe |University of North Carolina at Asheville |3 |

| |Warren Wilson College | |

| |Montreat College | |

| |Asheville-Buncombe Technical College | |

|Burke |Western Piedmont Community College |1 |

|Caldwell |Caldwell Community College |1 |

|Cherokee |Tri-County Community College |1 |

|Clay | | |

|Davie | |1 |

|Forsyth |Wake Forest University |4 |

| |Forsyth Technical/Community College | |

| |Salem College | |

| |Winston-Salem State | |

|Graham | | |

|Haywood |Haywood Community College |1 |

|Henderson | |1 |

|Jackson |Western Carolina University |1 |

| |Southwestern Community College | |

|McDowell |McDowell Technical/Community College |1 |

|Macon | |1 |

|Madison |Mars Hill College | |

|Mitchell |Mayland Community College |1 |

|Polk |Blue Ridge Community College | |

|Rutherford | |1 |

|Stokes | | |

|Surry |Surry Community College |1 |

|Swain | | |

|Transylvania |Brevard College |1 |

|Watauga |Appalachian State University |1 |

|Wilkes |Wilkes Community College |1 |

|Yadkin | |1 |

|Yancey | | |

Tennessee

|County |College/University |# of Wal-Mart Stores |

|Anderson | |1 |

|Bledsoe | | |

|Blount |Maryville College |1 |

|Bradley |Cleveland State Community College |1 |

| |Lee College | |

|Campbell | | |

|Cannon | | |

|Carter | |1 |

|Claiborne |Lincoln Memorial University |1 |

|Clay | | |

|Cocke | |1 |

|Coffee |University of Tennessee Space Institute |2 |

|Cumberland | |1 |

|De Kalb | | |

|Fentress | |1 |

|Franklin |University of the South |1 |

|Grainger | | |

|Greene |Tusculum College |1 |

|Grundy | | |

|Hamblen |Walters State Community College |1 |

|Hamilton |Chattanooga State Technical Community College |4 |

| |University of Tennessee at Chattanooga | |

| |Southern Adventist University | |

|Hancock | | |

|Hawkins | | |

|Jackson | | |

|Jefferson |Carson-Newman College |1 |

|Johnson |Milligan College | |

|Knox |Pellissippi State Technical Community College |8 |

| |University of Tennessee at Knoxville | |

| |Johnson Bible College | |

|Loudon | |1 |

|McMinn |Tennessee Wesleyan College |1 |

|Macon | |1 |

|Marion | |1 |

|Meigs | | |

|Monroe |Hiwassee College |1 |

|Morgan | | |

|Overton | | |

|Pickett | | |

|Polk | | |

|Putnam |Tennessee Technological University |1 |

|Rhea |Bryan College |1 |

|Roane |Roane State Community College |1 |

|Scott | |1 |

|Sequatchie | | |

|Sevier | |1 |

|Smith | |1 |

|Sullivan |Northeast State Technical Community College |4 |

| |Kings College | |

|Unicoi | | |

|Union | | |

|Van Buren | | |

|Warren | |1 |

|Washington |East Tennessee University |1 |

|White | |1 |

Virginia

|County/City |College/University |# of Wal-Mart Stores |

|Alleghany | | |

|Bath | | |

|Bland | | |

|Botetourt | | |

|Buchanan |Appalachian School of Law | |

|Carroll | | |

|Craig | | |

|Dickenson | | |

|Floyd | | |

|Giles | |1 |

|Grayson | | |

|Highland | | |

|Lee | | |

|Montgomery |Virginia Tech |1 |

|Pulaski |New River Community College |1 |

|Rockbridge | | |

|Russell | | |

|Scott | | |

|Smyth | |1 |

|Tazewell |Bluefield College |3 |

| |Southwest Virginia Community College | |

|Washington |Virginia Highlands Community College | |

|Wise |University of Virginia at Wise |1 |

| |Mountain Empire Community College | |

|Wythe |Wytheville Community College | |

|Bristol City |Virginia Intermont College |1 |

|Buena Vista City |Southern Virginia University | |

|Clifton Forge City |Dabney S. Lancaster Community College | |

|Covington City | |1 |

|Galax City | |1 |

|Lexington City |Washington & Lee University |1 |

| |Virginia Military Institute | |

|Norton City | |1 |

|Radford City |Radford University |1 |

West Virginia

|County |College/University |# of Wal-Mart Stores |

|Barbour |Alderson-Broaddus College | |

|Berkeley |Shepherd College |1 |

|Boone | | |

|Braxton | | |

|Brooke |Bethany College | |

| |West Liberty State College | |

|Cabell |Marshall University |1 |

|Calhoun | | |

|Clay | | |

|Doddridge | | |

|Fayette |West Virginia Institute of Technology |1 |

|Gilmer |Glenville State College | |

|Grant | | |

|Greenbrier |West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine |1 |

|Hampshire | | |

|Hancock | |1 |

|Hardy | |1 |

|Harrison |Salem International University |1 |

| |Salem-Teikyo University | |

|Jackson | |1 |

|Jefferson | |1 |

|Kanawha |University of Charleston |3 |

| |West Virginia Junior College | |

| |West Virginia State College | |

|Lewis | |1 |

|Lincoln | | |

|Logan |Southern West Virginia Community and Technical College |1 |

|McDowell | | |

|Marion |Fairmont State College |2 |

|Marshall | | |

|Mason | |1 |

|Mercer |Bluefield State College |1 |

| |Concord College | |

| |Valley College Institute of Technology | |

|Mineral |Potomac State College |1 |

|Mingo | | |

|Monongalia |West Virginia University |1 |

|Monroe | | |

|Morgan | | |

|Nicholas | |1 |

|Ohio |Wheeling Jesuit University | |

|Pendleton | | |

|Pleasants | | |

|Pocahontas | | |

|Preston | | |

|Putnam | | |

|Raleigh |College of West Virginia |1 |

|Randolph |Davis and Elkins College |1 |

|Ritchie | | |

|Roane | |1 |

|Summers | | |

|Taylor | |1 |

|Tucker | | |

|Tyler | | |

|Upshur |West Virginia Wesleyan College |1 |

|Wayne | |1 |

|Webster | | |

|Wetzel | |1 |

|Wirt | | |

|Wood |Ohio Valley College |3 |

| |West Virginia University at Parkersburg | |

|Wyoming | | |

Economic Indicators by Correlation

to Percentage of Population Living in Poverty

| |

|(Indicators listed from highest correlation to lowest correlation, |

|based on 10 counties with highest poverty rate) | | |

| | | | | | |

|Kentucky | | |North Carolina | |

|% children living in poverty |% children living in poverty |

|% government employment |2000 average wage per job |

|1999 PCI | | |% change PCI 90-99 | |

|Jobs per 100 in 2000 | |1999 PCI | | |

|2000 average wage per job |% manufacturing employment |

|% change average wage 90-00 |% government employment |

|2001 unemployment rate | |% services employment |

|% manufacturing employment |Jobs per 100 in 2000 | |

|% services employment | |% change average wage 90-00 |

|% change PCI 90-99 | |2001 unemployment rate |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | | |

|Tennessee | |Virginia | | |

|% children living in poverty |% children living in poverty |

|1999 PCI | | |2001 unemployment rate |

|2000 average wage per job |Jobs per 100 people in 2000 |

|2001 unemployment rate | |1999 PCI | | |

|Jobs per 100 people in 2000 |% change average wage 90-00 |

|% government employment |2000 average wage per job |

|% services employment | |% change PCI 90-99 | |

|% manufacturing employment |% manufacturing employment |

|% change in PCI 90-99 | |% services employment |

|% change average wage 90-00 |% government employment |

| | | | | | |

| | | | | | |

|West Virginia | | | | |

|% children in poverty | | | | |

|1999 PCI | | | | | |

|Jobs per 100 people in 2000 | | | |

|% government employment | | | |

|2001 unemployment rate | | | | |

|% manufacturing employment | | | |

|% change average wage 90-00 | | | |

|% services employment | | | | |

|% change PCI 90-00 | | | | |

|2000 average wage per job | | | |

| | | | | | |

* Educational Attainment data sets and analysis will be forwarded as soon as the data are available from the Census Bureau for these states at the county level and can be analyzed.

-----------------------

Metro and Resort Areas in Mid-Appalachia

NC: Asheville (Buncombe Co.) and Winston-Salem (Forsyth Co.)

TN: Chattanooga (Hamilton Co.), Knoxville (Knox Co.), Bristol-Johnson City-Kingsport (Sullivan and Washington Cos.), and Oak Ridge (Anderson and Roane Cos.)

VA: Homestead Resort (Bath Co.), Sugarloaf Resort (Botetourt Co.), Blacksburg (Montgomery Co.)

WV: Charleston (Kanawha Co.), Huntington (Cabell and Wayne Cos.), Greenbrier Resort (Greenbrier Co.), and Wheeling (Ohio Co.)

Number of Counties in State Appalachia Regions Below U.S. Figure for Jobs per 100 people, Year 2000

Kentucky — 45 of 49 counties

North Carolina — 23 of 29 counties

Tennessee — 42 of 50 counties

Virginia — 17 of 23 counties

West Virginia — 48 of 55 counties

Higher Education and Big-Box Retail in

Mid-Appalachia Counties

# Higher Ed. # Wal-Marts # Wal-Marts

Institutions in college cos.

KY 17 25 15

NC 22 24 18

TN 24 44 30

VA 15 14 9

WV 26 31 20

| |% Living in Poverty, |% Employ-ment in |% Change in Population,|

| |1997 |Mining, 2000 |1990 - 2000 |

|Counties | | | |

|Logan |23 |6.9 |-12.4 |

|Wyoming |23 |13.1 |-11.3 |

|Calhoun |24.2 |8.2 |-3.8 |

|Mingo |24.9 |29.2 |-16.3 |

|Gilmer |25.0 |6.8 |-6.6 |

|Summers |24.2 |N/A |-8.5 |

|Webster |28.5 |9.6 |-9.4 |

|McDowell |31.4 |11.2 |-22.4 |

|2000 Average Wage per Job |

|Figures for Median County |

| | |

|KY Appalachia |$21,089 |

|NC Appalachia |$23,211 |

|TN Appalachia |$23,023 |

|VA Appalachia |$23,659 |

|WV Appalachia |$22,981 |

|1999 Per Capita Personal Income |

|Figures for Median County |

| | |

|KY Appalachia |$15,883 |

|NC Appalachia |$22,222 |

|TN Appalachia |$19,434 |

|VA Appalachia |$19,702 |

|WV Appalachia |$17,787 |

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