The Greatest Century That Ever Was - Cato Institute

[Pages:32]No. 364

December 15, 1999

The Greatest Century That Ever Was

25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years

by Stephen Moore and Julian L. Simon

Executive Summary

There has been more material progress in the United States in the 20th century than there was in the entire world in all the previous centuries combined. Almost every indicator of health, wealth, safety, nutrition, affordability and availability of consumer goods and services, environmental quality, and social conditions indicates rapid improvement over the past century. The gains have been most pronounced for women and minorities.

Among the most heartening trends discussed in this study are the following: life expectancy has increased by 30 years; infant mortality rates have fallen 10-fold; the number of cases of (and the death rate from) the major killer diseases-- such as tuberculosis, polio, typhoid, whooping cough, and pneumonia--has fallen to fewer than 50 per 100,000; air quality has improved by about 30 percent in major cities since 1977; agricultural productivity has risen 5- to 10-fold; real per capita gross domestic product has risen from

$4,800 to $31,500; and real wages have nearly quadrupled from $3.45 an hour to $12.50.

During the course of this century, the affordability and availability of consumer goods have greatly increased. Even most poor Americans have a cornucopia of choices that a century ago the Rockefellers and the Vanderbilts could not have purchased. Today more than 98 percent of American homes have a telephone, electricity, and a flush toilet. More than 70 percent of Americans own a car, a VCR, a microwave, air conditioning, cable TV, and a washer and dryer. At the turn of the century, almost no homes had those modern conveniences. And although Americans feel that they are more squeezed for time than ever, most adults have twice as much leisure time as their counterparts did 100 years ago.

By any conceivable measure, the 20th century has truly been the greatest century of human progress in history.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Stephen Moore is director of fiscal policy studies at the Cato Institute. Julian L. Simon (1932?98) was a professor of business administration at the University of Maryland and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. Most of the research findings come from Simon's lifetime of work showing how life on earth is getting better, not worse. The research assistance of Stephen A. Slivinski and Philip Kerpen is gratefully acknowledged.

We are about to complete what the 1933 World's Fair

in Chicago aptly called "the Century of Progress."

Introduction

We step upon the threshold of 1900 . . . facing a brighter dawn of civilization.

--New York Times, January 1, 1900

The central premise of this study is that there has been more improvement in the human condition for people living in the United States in this century than for all people in all previous centuries of human history combined. Gigantic strides have been made in living standards in most other parts of the world as well, but not all. The European Jews, the Russians, and the Chinese experienced dreadful episodes of tyranny under Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.

When one considers the age of the planet, the 20th century has been a momentary flash in time. Yet the documentable improvement in the quality of human life in this brief period has been nothing short of miraculous. Although the leap forward in human progress began in the 19th century with the Industrial Revolution, the greatest strides have taken place in the 20th century. Virtually every statistic presented in the pages that follow confirms that we are about to complete what the 1933 World's Fair in Chicago aptly called "the Century of Progress."

The roughly fourfold rise in the living standards of Americans in this century is particularly impressive when we consider that for thousands of years human progress occurred at a glacial pace. For the thousand years before the Industrial Revolution, incomes were virtually flat, growing by about 0.5 percent per year. Life expectancy was not much greater in 1700 than it was at the time of the Greek and Roman Empires (Figure 1). Throughout most of human history, life was, as Thomas Hobbes famously put it, "nasty, brutish and short."

One way to appreciate the improvements in quality of life over the course of this century is to mentally travel back 100 years. What

was life really like? The latter part of the 19th century was an era of tuberculosis, typhoid, sanitariums, child labor, child death, horses, horse manure, candles, 12-hour work days, Jim Crow laws, tenements, slaughterhouses, and outhouses. Lynchings--not just of blacks--were common. (In the South 11 Italians were lynched in one month.) To live to 50 was to count one's blessings. For a mother to have all four of her children live to adulthood was to beat the odds of nature. One in 10 children died before his or her first birthday. One hundred years ago parents lived in eternal fear of a child's dying; nowadays, many parents live in eternal fear of their child's not making the county select soccer team.

Industrial cities were typically enveloped in clouds of black soot and smoke. At that stage of the Industrial Revolution, factories belching poisons into the air were regarded as a sign of prosperity and progress. Streets were smelly and filled with garbage before modern sewerage systems and plumbing were put in place. Leading killers of the day included pneumonia, tuberculosis, diarrhea, and violence. In 1918 pneumonia killed 675,000 Americans. In the first two decades of the 20th century, before the era of acid rain and global warming, pollution killed people--lots and lots of people. Deadly diseases were carried by milk and what then qualified as "drinking water." Cancer was not one of the primary causes of death as it is today, because most Americans succumbed to infectious diseases and occasional epidemics before their bodies had time to contract cancer.

Medical care was astonishingly primitive by today's standards. Abraham Flexner, writing in the famous Flexner report on medical education in 1910, commented that until then, a random patient consulting a random physician had only a 50-50 chance of benefiting from the encounter. Health historian Theodore Dalrymple notes that until the late 19th century it was often considered "beneath a physician's dignity to actually examine a patient." Most of the drugs used throughout the ages, including arsenic,

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Figure 1 Life Expectancy at Birth, This Millennium

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Sources: For 1000?1850 (Europe), Julian L. Simon, The Ultimate Resource 2, rev. ed. (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1996), p. 319; for 1900?96 (United States), Centers for Disease Control, National Center for Health Statistics, Monthly Vital Statistics Report 47, no. 45, Table 16; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1975), Series B 107.

which was still used through the early 1900s, were useless and in many cases poisonous. Oliver Wendell Holmes was reported to have declared that if all of the drugs in his time were tossed into the ocean it would be better for mankind and worse for the fish.

So why did mankind experience such a burst of progress all of a sudden at the start of the 20th century? And why did so much of that progress originate in the United States? The shorthand answer to the second question is this: Freedom works. The unique American formula of individual liberty and free enterprise has encouraged risk taking, experimentation, innovation, and scientific exploration of a magnitude that is unprecedented in human history.

Economic freedom and freedom from government repression, in particular, are nec-

essary ingredients for human progress. In the United States the government has, for the most part, set down a reasonable rule of law and then gotten out of the way. The tragedy of this century is that mankind has had to relearn the lesson of history again and again--most recently in the former Soviet Union, where life expectancies have tragically fallen, and in China, where tens of millions of Chinese starved to death under collectivist agricultural policies--that repression by government short-circuits the human spirit and produces sustained periods of stagnation and even anti-progress. Figure 2 shows that there is a strong positive relationship between economic freedom and life expectancy across countries.

America also enjoys a unique advantage over other nations because we are a nation

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Figure 2 Life Expectancy and Economic Freedom

80 77

75

$15,609

76 Life Expectancy

70

70

$13,020

68

20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000

65

10,000

$6,721

60

8,000

60 6,000

$3,218

4,000

55

$2,675

2,000

50 A

B

C

D

Economic Freedom Grade, 1997

0 F

Sources: Calculations by DKT International based on James D. Gwartney and Robert L. Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World: 1997 Annual Report (Vancouver: Fraser Institute, 1997); and Population Reference Bureau, World Population Data Sheet 1999,

that remakes itself through the new blood of immigrants. The tens of millions of new Americans who came through Ellis Island or the Golden Gate or across the Rio Grande have been some of the brightest and most ambitious people of the rest of the world. Americans are a people who have been selfselected as problem solvers and progress seekers. Historian Paul Johnson states this point in the first sentence of his book A History of the American People, when he describes Americans as "the first, best hope for the human race."

The answer to the first question, why all this progress has been compressed into the historical nanosecond of the 20th century, is not so straightforward. We believe, however, that three relatively modern developments have revolutionized human life. The first was

modern medicine and vaccines. Scientists generally attribute up to half the increase in life expectancy in this century to improved drugs, vaccines, and other medical treatment breakthroughs.

The second development was the harnessing of electrical power. Although generation of electrical power was possible by the late 19th century, electricity started to become widely available in homes and factories only in the early decades of this century. The magic of electrical power not only brought us literally out of the darkness but also launched thousands of inventions, all of which have allowed mankind to begin to harness the forces of nature, thus improving nearly every aspect of our daily lives.

The third transforming development was the invention of the microchip. As the brains

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of the computer, the semiconductor has been mankind's passport to a whole new universe of knowledge. The average American worker with a $799 Pentium-chip laptop computer has more computing power at his fingertips than was contained in all the computers in the entire world during World War II. One hundred years ago, all of the greatest mathematicians in the world together did not have the problem-solving resources of today's fourth grader with a $19.95 Texas Instruments pocket calculator.

Americans have a tendency to believe that things used to be better than they are now. This inclination typically impels us to look to government to make things better. The nostalgia that many Americans express for the 1950s is a notable example. However, as the comedian Jackie Gleason once noted, "The past remembers better than it lived." For the vast majority of Americans--particularly minorities and women--life was not better in the 1950s than today. We are healthier; we live longer; we are richer; we can afford to purchase far more things; we have more time and money for recreation; we have bigger and better homes; we are at much less risk of catastrophic accidents; and we breathe cleaner air and drink safer water. The list could go on and on. It is impossible, of course, to measure Americans' spiritual well-being, but there can be little argument that our material wellbeing has never been better.

The doubters will wonder whether our present glorious age in America is just another blip in history, like the Egyptian, Persian, and Roman Empires and the Golden Age of Greece. Skeptics moan that either the progress we have experienced in the 20th century will be reversed or, as some environmentalists fear, we will be done in by growth mania itself. We may simply be living through another episode of dynastic glory that will soon falter.

We doubt it. The advance of civilization that we are now living through is different from previous advances. Ours is the first age in which affluence has been enjoyed by more than just a tiny fraction of the population. In

previous times, even in the great empires, at least 90 percent of the populace remained at a Malthusian level of subsistence. Never before have improvements in quality of life been spread to virtually every segment of the population, as has happened in the United States and the developed world in this century.

Perhaps the best way to dramatize this point is to compare the living conditions of the poor today with those of well-to-do citizens 100 years ago. As we prepare to close the books on the 20th century, most Americans who are considered "poor" today have routine access to a quality of food, health care, consumer products, entertainment, communications, and transportation that even the Vanderbilts, the Carnegies, the Rockefellers, and 19th-century European royalty, with all their combined wealth, could not have afforded. No mountain of gold 100 years ago could have purchased the basics of everyday life that we take for granted in 1999: a television set, a stereo with the first music ever recorded, a cellular telephone, a car, a vaccination against polio, a H?agen Dazs ice cream bar, a sinus tablet, contact lenses (to say nothing of laser surgery), or the thrill of seeing Michael Jordan majestically soar through the air as if defying gravity while dunking a basketball. Today, almost all Americans can afford these things.

We are also optimistic because, unlike in previous eras of progress, the gains that have been made in the 20th century are truly irreversible because they are primarily the result of the wondrous advances of human knowledge that have accumulated in this century. That knowledge can never be erased, even if barbarians or Luddites were to burn every library to the ground. Encyclopedias can now be stored on a six-inch, $10 computer disk. If, God forbid, a bomb were to destroy all the physical capital and infrastructure of the United States, those structures could be rebuilt in a generation, provided there were still people around to do the rebuilding. (Consider how quickly Germany was resurrected after World War II.) Moreover, the information age makes it almost futile for

The semiconductor has been mankind's passport to a whole new universe of knowledge.

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Table 1 25 Wonderful Trends of the 20th Century

Trend

1900?1920a

1995?98b

Life expectancy (years) Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 live births) Deaths from infectious diseases (per 100,000 population) Heart disease (age-adjusted deaths per 100,000 population) Per capita GDP (1998 dollars) Manufacturing wage (1998 dollars) Household assets (trillions of 1998 dollars) Poverty rate (percent of U.S. households) Length of workweek (hours) Agricultural workers (percent of workforce) TV ownership (percent of U.S. households) Homeownership (percent of U.S. households) Electrification (percent of U.S. households) Telephone calls (annual per capita calls) Cars for transportation (percent of U.S. households) Patents granted High school completion (percent of adults) Accidental deaths (per 100,000 population) Wheat price (per bushel in hours of work) Bachelor's degrees awarded to women (percent of degrees) Black income (annual per capita, 1997 dollars) Resident U.S. population (millions) Air pollution (lead, micrograms per 100 cubic meters of air) Computer speed (millions of instructions per second) Computer ownership (percent of U.S. households)

a Values are for earliest year for which data are available. b Values are for latest year for which data are available.

47 100 700 307 (1950) $4,800 $3.40 $6 (1945) 40 50 35 0 46 8 40 1 25,000 22 88 4.1 34 $1,200 76 135 (1977) 0.02 (1976) 1 (1980)

77 7 50 126 $31,500 $12.50 $41 13 35 2.5 98 66 99 2,300 91 150,000 88 34 0.2 55 $12,400 265 4 700 44

repressive governments, like that of the Soviet Union, to try to restrain freedom through military might, as they did in previous eras.

Finally, we are convinced that the progress of the 20th century is not a mere historical blip but rather the start of a long-term trend of improved life on earth, because almost every measure of human material welfare has

shown gains. This is the first time in human history that has happened.

Indeed, we are hard-pressed to find more than a small handful of trends that have gotten worse in this century. Taxes are higher and government is a lot bigger and more intrusive than 100 years ago in the United States. (We believe that big government may be a consequence, but surely not the cause, of

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prosperity.) The good news is that, at this moment in history, for most inhabitants of the planet, freedom is marching forward and is not in retreat. Even in the United States, federal spending as a percentage of gross domestic product has now dipped to its lowest level in 25 years--suggesting that perhaps Bill Clinton was right that "the era of big government is over."

Some social trends, of course, indicate deterioration not improvement over the past 30 to 40 years, as William Bennett and Robert Bork have emphasized. There have been worrisome increases in family breakup, abortions, illegitimate births, and teen suicide, for example. Violent crime rates have drifted upward--in the 1920s, 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, for example--and downward--in the 1930s and 1990s, for example--with no immediate sign of longterm improvement. However, there are glimmers of good news. In recent years, most of these troubling trends of social decay have been improving, and for almost all the other social problems, the arrow points to improvement on a grand scale.

Winston Churchill once said that "the further back you look, the further ahead in the future you can see." The declinists are wrong when they say that mankind is on a collision course with doomsday. For Americans, the 20th century was not mostly an era of world war, environmental degradation, catastrophic global warming, capitalist exploitation, overpopulation, and a deep divide between the haves and the have-nots. (As John Tierney of the New York

Times lamented not long ago: "No matter how much healthier and wealthier everyone becomes, we always read about a gap between one group or another. . . . As more babies survive, we focus on endangered species of beetles.") It is imperative that we understand and appreciate the advances of our recent history so we can use our resources wisely for solving real societal problems, not make-believe ones.

So the purpose of this study is in part to set the historical record straight; it is a plea that the history books and the media try to get the story right. We hope that the 25 great trends presented in the pages that follow and given in Table 1 will convince people that the 20th century has been the greatest century that ever was. It should also convince even the zealous skeptics that the past 100 years truly have been the American century. The great American comedian-philosopher Will Rogers had the story exactly right when he said many years ago:

Trying to stop this country now would be like spitting on a railroad track. No politician, no party, not Congress or the Senate, can really hurt this country now. And we're not where we are on account of any one man. We're here on account of the common sense of the big normal majority. This country is bigger than any man or any party. They couldn't ruin it even if they tried.

We are convinced that the progress of the 20th century is not a mere historical blip but rather the start of a longterm trend of improved life on earth.

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Human Life Span

The most amazing demographic fact of the past century, and the greatest human achievement in history in our view, is that humanity has almost won the battle against early death. We are not alone in this assessment. Several years ago the New York Times described the doubling of life expectancy since the start of the Industrial Revolution as "the greatest miracle in the history of our

species." Throughout most of human history, death came at an early age--often 25?35 years was a typical life span. In the United States over the past 100 years, life expectancy has increased to 77 years (Figure 3)--triple the life span of our ancient ancestors and three decades longer than our great-grandparents could expect to live at the turn of the century. Incredibly, the life expectancy of black Americans has almost doubled in this century.

Figure 3 U.S. Life Expectancy at Birth, 20th Century

90

77 68

47

45

0

1900

1950

1998

Sources: Historical Statistics of the United States, Series B 107; and Monthly Vital Statistics Report 47, no. 45, Table 16.

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