January 2005 - Geography is easy



Population Change

Specimen papers

Paper 1

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With reference to at least two examples of a country/area in Figure 7 in different stages of development, comment on the range of growth rates and suggest reasons for the differences. (6 marks)

Comments might refer to points such as:

•high growth rates in unstable places like Afghanistan, Gaza, Somalia

•fairly high growth rates in Sub-Saharan Africa

•although these are not as high as they once were

•generally low growth rates in developed countries

•negative rates in some East European countries

•negative rate in HIV/Aids influenced S Africa

Level 2 (4–6 marks)

At the bottom of the level one clear reason for the range of rates is given. At the top of the level the difference and range is well and thoroughly explained.

(b) In order to calculate the Population Growth Rate for a country you would need the figure for Birth Rate (%). What is the other vital rates (population statistic) you would need and explain how you would use them to calculate the Growth Rate? (4 marks)

(Note that the question should have said “…are the other rates….”)

Death rate (1). Immigration rate (1) Emigration rate (1)

(BR + IR) – (DR + ER) expressed as a percentage (1).

(c) Some of the countries in Figure 7 could be said to be in Stage 5 of the demographic transition model. Discuss the implications of a shrinking population for the economies of countries affected. (5 marks)

Points could include:

•falling work force

•ageing population

•Shrinking school age population

•increased need for care of old people

•falling tax base

•need for immigration to maintain services etc.

Level 2 (4–5 marks)

Points are discussed clearly, with reference to alternative viewpoints.

Specimen paper 2 page 83

(a) Define infant (i) mortality rate and (i)life expectancy (4)

(a) (i) Number of children, out of every 1000, who die before their first birthday.

(ii) Average age to which a member of the population can expect to live.

Each clear and full answer = 2 marks

Each partially correct answer = 1 mark

(b) (i) Suggest reasons for the variation in the rates of population change shown in Figure 6. (6)

LEDCs have a high death rate and a high birth rate to compensate for this and so have a moderately small population increase. However, as health care and diet improve the death rate usually falls, but the BR takes longer to adjust and so the net effect is to

increase the rate of increase. As the country develops further the BR is reduced and the increase reduces. It may reach a point where the DR is higher than BR, especially in countries with a top heavy age profile, so then the population starts to fall. Some countries have factors that distort the basic demographic transition pattern. For instance, southern African countries like Botswana have a very high incidence of HIV/AIDS infection and this raises the DR and reduces the rate of population increase. Civil war, as in Sierra Leone, or tight state control of birth rate, as in China, can also have a big effect on population increase rates.

Level 2 The answer is clearly developed with links made between BR and DR, reasons for changes in these two and changes in the rate of change. If one such link is developed the answer can reach the bottom of the level. As more links are made the mark moves towards the top of the level.

(4-6 marks)

(ii) Outline some of the issues for economic development linked with a population structure with a very high proportion of people over 65 years old. (5)

Low work force. Low tax base. People have to work longer. Migrants might be attracted for work. Reduction in demand for teachers, etc. Increased demand for carers. Growing importance of the ‘grey pound’. Falling population can lead to negative growth.

State may increase family allowances and other such benefits.

Level 2 The answer is clearly developed with links made between different aspects of the topic. A detailed case study is given, or reference is made to a number of relevant case studies.

If one such link is developed the answer can reach the bottom of the level. As more links are made the mark moves towards the top of the level.

(3-5 marks)

Question January 2012

5 (b) (i) Define 'infant mortality rate'. (2)

Infant mortality is the number of deaths under the age of 1/ per 1000 live births per year.

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Comment on the varying rates of natural change shown in Figure 10. (5)

Natural population change clearly varies – it is, with one exception – Russia – positive. Rates vary – being highest – over 2 in African country of Nigeria. Lowest rates occur in richest area of UK with China being the exception in this context. Generally, areas with low infant mortality rates have low increases or a decrease – UK and Russia. China is an exception with a natural increase of 0.5 but an infant mortality rate over 20. Countries with high rates of increase generally have high rates of infant mortality – Nigeria and India. This suggests a higher rate of births where there are higher numbers of infant deaths.

Comment should refer to possible links to other data items, reasons or an assessment of extent of variation, implementation of population policies.

Level 2 (Clear) 4-5 marks

Description of rates of population change is clear and supported by evidence.

Considers in the light of other information – such as births, deaths, imr or notes of anomalies.

Clear, explicit comment.

5 (c) Examine how population structure changes at different stages of the demographic transition. (15)

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Level 3 (Detailed) 13-15 marks

Clear, purposeful summary of changes, considering at least 3 stages of DTM.

Purposeful in responding to the question - explicit links between stages and population structure. Support is present throughout. Clear, explicit comment/analysis as changes examined.

June 2011 page 104

5(b)

Using Figure, describe and comment on the causes of recent population changes in the United Kingdom. (6)

There should be recognition of the role of immigration, natural increase and the fact that these two are clearly interlinked. Reference may also be made to reasons for higher levels of births.

Reference therefore is likely to be made to the increasing numbers due to natural increase in 2009, whereas for 10 years before the increase was due to immigration – and reflective of the age structure of migrants. Numbers coming in still result in an increase overall – without them population would fall. Births have increased amongst British born women and immigrants – possibly due to better conditions for maternity leave, tax credits.

Comment may note the change over time, the links between the two components and the underlying reasons for increased births such as increased maternity leave.

Level 2 (Clear) 5-6 marks

Response targets question – both command words addressed. Effective use of newspaper extract. Aware of causes and links between them. Clear, relevant comment.

Appropriate terminology used.

Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the DTM (15)

Strengths likely to relate to the fact that all countries will fit model –exemplification likely with reference to specific countries at specific stages. The model shows change over time and can be seen as a predictor, with the expectation that each country will progress through the stages of the model. It is a good basis to compare countries to and offers reasons for progression through

stages. The flexibility of the time element is a positive, increasing the degree of ‘fit’. Some countries such as those in north western Europe clearly fit the model and it explains the changes that occurred there.

Weaknesses likely to relate to the evidence base being north European and so fitting western Europe and North America better than elsewhere; the links to industrialisation and progression make application in poorer countries more difficult; the time scales for stage 2 and 3 in poorer areas of the world raise the

question about progression through the stages; the cause of the change from stage 2 to 3 is also different – the role of population policies or continuing high levels of births for longer; the original absence of a fifth stage to take into account zero and negative growth; migration is not taken directly into account

nor are areas with high rates of disease such as HIV/AIDS that causes a new impact on population.

Level 3 (Detailed) 13-15 marks

Response is purposeful in linking the demographic transition model to strengths and weaknesses.

Account will be more balanced between the two components – but still emphasis on weaknesses likely.

Discussion, debate is present. Some developed, illustrated statements using country/countries studied.

January 2011 page 99

(a) Describe the pattern shown…(3)

There should be recognition of uneven pattern / variation in density. Basic idea of high on coast low inland is worth 1 mark. Areas of highest density – above 700 per square km are exclusively on the east coast. There is a general reduction westwards. However, there is a band inland from the coast that is marked by relatively high densities – between 300-700, including provinces on Henan and Hunan. Some of the eastern coastal areas are relatively low – between 100 and 299 – these form a clear area in the east, south of Shanghai. The lowest densities are without exception to the north and west. Allow 1 for evidence – maybe number or place to support point made.

(b) Explain why the population density of an area may change over time. (5)

The question refers specifically to density, so responses relating to population structure are not relevant. Answers likely to consider natural change resulting from relationship between births and deaths – so that a surplus of births over deaths will result in an increase. Migration change is also relevant – and the relationship between levels of people moving in and those moving out to determine net gain or loss. The underlying reasons for changes in the death, birth and migration rates could also form a legitimate part of an answer.

There may be reference to change within an area and reference to a case study.

Level 2 (4-5 marks)

The contribution of individual component(s) to changes in population density is clear.

Links are made and sequence of events is clear.

Appropriate terminology is used.

Question June 2010 page 95

(a) Study Figure 5 which shows a partly completed diagram of the demographic transition model.

(a) Complete Figure 5 by adding appropriate labels to the diagram. (4 marks)

For labelling axes – birth and death rate (per 000 per year) – (1); for total population/size of population and time (1). For correctly labelling birth rate line, death rate line and total population (1). In addition, the stages should be labelled by name not number i.e. High stationary, Early expanding, Late expanding, Low stationary, zero or declining population – (1 per 2 correct stages) Vertical lines marking stages are valid (1 per 2 correct stages)

(must extend from top to bottom) and aspects such as natural increase/decrease could also be named (not just change) (1). 4x1 (4 marks)

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(b) To what extent does Malaysia fit the demographic transition model for the time period shown in Figure 6? (6 marks)

Malaysia appears to have been in stage 2 in 1960 as there was a significant gap between the births and deaths that continues until 1980/1990. Growth was at its highest in 1980 at 3.1%. The birth rate falls slightly by 1990, but the rate of population growth slows only slightly as the

death rate also falls – 2.6%. However, the trend of falling birth rate is maintained and there is a greater fall by 2000 that continues until 2007. A corresponding slower fall in the death rates means that rate of natural increase falls to below 2 at 1.7%. There is clearly a change in stage and Malaysia has now reached stage 3. Projecting current trends would suggest that stage 4 will ultimately be reached, although the speed at which the birth rate has fallen has reduced in the last seven years. Total population reflects changes in birth and death rate with increase slowing down in current century, suggesting progression through stage 3 and a move towards stage 4.

Level 2 (5-6 marks)

Clear purposeful description linked to model. Has overview of changes / stages – possibly 2 present and others not yet gone through. Evidence in support. Appropriate assessment of ‘to what extent’ using evidence. (6 marks)

(c) Describe how the population structure of a country in stage 2 of the demographic transition model is different from that of a country in stage 4. (5 marks)

Country in stage 2 will have a broad base, whereas in stage 4 this will be much narrower. In stage 2, it will taper rapidly towards the top, whilst in stage 4, the pyramid will be a similar width throughout and wider at the top than the stage 2 counterpart. The overall shape of the

stage 2 pyramid may be seen as an expanding/progressive pyramid, whilst that of the stage 4 will be stable/contracting with an indent at the base. Sketch pyramids may be used to illustrate answer. Description may relate to relative numbers / proportion of independent population and elderly dependants and young dependants instead of relating to pyramids.

Level 2 (4-5 marks)

Description of structure is clear – for both stages 2 and 4. Clear contrasts are drawn out. Appropriate terminology is used.

(d) Comment on the impact of different population structures on the balance between population and resources. (15 marks)

Content will depend on areas selected. Likely to relate to contrasting countries (rich and poor), a country changing over time or different areas within a country or a combination of these. Whatever the areas, contrasts are likely to relate to an area where an ageing population is

present and an area where a youthful population is present or an area that has seen change over time reflecting this (of DTM for UK) Internal contrasts are likely to draw out similar features. The importance of the independent groups may also form a valid response. These two contrasting population structures should then be discussed with regard to the demands placed by the population on limited resources – and how needs are met – and extent to which they are met. In areas with ageing population, reference to the need for healthcare –

hospital beds – cost of hip replacements, dementia – looking after people in the community; the role of charitable organisations may be explored as may private healthcare, role of family; the need to provide – and the burden of state pension, the need for private pensions, equity in

housing; the need to raise retirement age; increase taxes; the need for housing – residential homes for the elderly, sheltered accommodation, building of small houses on retirement parks.

In areas with a youthful population, reference to the need for healthcare for the young and antenatal care to reduce mortality, the need to provide education for a young population, the need for housing of appropriate quality for a growing population; the need for employment –

adequate jobs for people; implications for future may be considered with growing numbers of elderly. (15 marks)

Question January 2010 page 91

(a) Birth rate refers to the number of (live) births per 1000 per year (1).

Fertility rate is the number of (live) births per 1000 women per year (1) aged 15 – 49 (1). It can also be defined as the number of children born on average by each woman (1), so that 2.1 would reflect the replacement rate (1).

The differences relate to the group of people involved – the birth rate refers to the whole population (1), whilst the fertility rate refers to the female component only (1) and in its most specific sense is an age specific rate relating to those of child-bearing age (1). Allow up to 3 marks for definitions and 3 marks for establishing the differences. An explicit comment is needed on distinction of 4.

(b) Infant mortality is the number of deaths under 1 (per 1000 live births per year) (1). It reflects the deaths in one of the most vulnerable age groups (1); those who are most susceptible to die from famine, as a result of floods, earthquakes, epidemics (1). It implies much about levels of development and standard of living (1) regarding access to clean water (1), medical care/hospitals/doctors/ vaccines/drugs (1).

High levels are often responsible for high levels of births to ensure the survival of most of family (1). Responses may be generic or evaluate with specific reference to data; extent of correlation may be considered or its usefulness may be questioned. 4 x 1 (4 marks)

(c) Highest life expectancy – 77+ - is found in Japan, Australia and western Europe USA and part of southern South America -74+. Lowest life expectancy occurs in much of sub-Saharan Africa where it is below 50. It reaches 41 in significant area. Apart from the countries along the Mediterranean, life expectancy is below 64. Much of Asia is 58+ although China and parts of Malaysia, Thailand have higher levels at 69+.

Reasons relate to levels of development – with generally the more developed areas having higher life expectancy. However, this is not always the case – China as an emerging world power and NIC has life expectancy of 69+, whilst the ageing population in some areas may reduce the figures, so too may lifestyle. Lowest life expectancy in Africa can be linked to the prevalence of AIDS. Generally, access to appropriate food sources, medical care etc. will explain the differences in levels globally.

Level 2 (5 – 7 marks)

Description of pattern is clear (fuller, more detailed) and supported by evidence. May identify exceptions. A balanced account where explanation is clearly addressed. Appropriate terminology is used. (7 marks)

5 (d) Content will depend on two areas selected. Whatever the areas, contrasts should be expected on the following aspects – housing – characteristics, quality; ethnicity – origin of population; age structure of population; services present; wealth of population and type of jobs people do/level of employment. These aspects are given in specification, but other alternatives are permissible if appropriate and may be substitutes – spec uses term ‘such as’.

The final aspect considers the implications for social welfare. This may also be integrated or candidates may choose to do this section separately. Here, there should be reference to how people’s well-being is affected by where they live and the general health/well-being of the community should be considered. Thus, links between location, quality of housing and health could be considered; quality of education and achievement – number of GCSE A* - C, extent to which the area is safe, extent to which there is access to appropriate services – shops, schools, medical centres, sports facilities, meeting places, etc. The response should summarise the contrasts – these should be integral and clearly drawn out.

Level 2 (7 – 12 marks)

Description is more specific and precise.Contrasts are drawn between the two areas (maybe implicit) and the summary is clear.Points are supported in places. Begins to make links to social welfare at top end.

Level 3 (13 – 15 marks)

Clear, explicit purposeful summary of contrasts (maybe integrated).An organised account that is purposeful in responding to the question.Exemplification is used to support answers – case studies are effectively used.Clear, explicit links to social welfare and contrasts between areas.

Question June 2009 page 86

(a)(i) Only areas of decline are in eastern Baltic/ countries that have joined since 2004 (1) states of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland - there is a clear cluster here (1) for recognition of this. There is a band of countries going n.w. to s.e. from Denmark to Hungary where there is a cluster of countries experiencing relatively low gains - approx 0.5 - 2‰ (1). Some in this area are relatively high e.g. Czech Republic (1). Many western European countries have significant increases – the highest being on the edges - Ireland, Italy and Spain (1).

Portugal is relatively low in contrast (1). Southern Europe is relatively high - Spain, Italy and Cyprus have the highest figures (1). Greece is relatively low in this region.

The countries joining in 2004 tend to have lower rates of migration change (1) and indeed half experience a loss of population (1). Malta and Cyprus may be viewed as exceptions to this (1). The above offer possible responses relating to pattern.

Recognition of exceptions is valid. Credit any valid point that relates to pattern.

(a)(ii) Areas of net migration gain result of - pull factors - attractions of these countries with regard to jobs, housing prospects, e.g. UK, Belgium, Italy. Some countries may seek to recruit foreign workers to supplement their workforce. Some may gain due to proximity to those who appear to be supplying migrants - e.g. Austria, Czech Republic.

Areas gaining in southern Europe such as Spain, Malta and Cyprus could be the result of retirement migration due to good weather. France has relatively low gain due to migration in contrast to surrounding countries. This may be due to government policy.

Areas of greatest migration loss likely to be result of push factors – such as high unemployment; relatively poor economic areas by European standards.

Level 2 (4-5 marks)

Reasons clearly relate to pattern described/Figure 6.Explanation refers to a variety of reasons..Will seek to explain exceptions.

5 (b) Present population structure - contracting population. Approximately 20% of males are under the age of 15 and 18% of females. People in their 30’s are the single most important age group. There is a large elderly population as the pyramid is high and wide - with approximately 22% of women over the age of 60 and 19% of men. The ageing dependent is slightly larger than the young dependent sector. It is likely to increase, given the width of the bars for the intermediate age groups. The registered eastern European workers are mainly in the age groups between 18 and 34. Numbers then drop rapidly by approximately 120 000 to the next category. Less than 4000 are in the oldest group. Thus, this cohort will have the effect of increasing the importance of the independent population and reduce the relative proportion of elderly. It is likely that there will be an impact on natural increase as the age selective migration is likely to result in an increase in births and thus, the population structure will show significant change.

Level 2 (5-6 marks)

Description is clear and supported by evidence – overview of structure.The impact of the workers on the present age structure is clear.Links are clearly made between the two components and appropriate terminology is used.

(c) Population change can be viewed as either an increase or a decline. It may result from natural or migration change. Change can also be viewed with regard to structure.

Similarly, the impacts can be seen either positively or negatively. Actual responses will depend on exemplars considered and will be variable.

Population increase - economic

Unemployment; pressure on resources - food, housing, health, schools may be considered. There may be reference to the need to provide for an ageing or a young dependent population. Conversely, an increase in population may stimulate economic growth and lead to jobs being filled - possibly unwanted jobs or those demanding certain skills; more paid in taxes; rise in public spending.

Population decrease - economic

Stagnation of economy - loss of young migrants, less paid in taxes, loss of skills but some money sent back.

Population increase – political

Need to allocate resources – drain on these – may refer to need to increase food production, increase taxation to fund health care of elderly; need to introduce population policies regarding reducing birth rate or migration to compensate for an ageing population.

Population decrease - political

Policies to encourage natural increase, immigration; to stem outflow of population, to develop resources - seek aid.

Comment likely to refer to relative importance of economic and political impacts; whether effects are negative or positive or severity of one particular aspect; or perceived knock-on effects. A view will be expressed that can be supported by the evidence.

Level 2 (7-12 marks)

Description is more specific and precise. Economic and political are both referred to, although an imbalance is permissible. Points are supported in places.Tentative/implicit comment.

Level 3 (13-15 marks)

Clear, purposeful description. Economic and political are both referred to - and type clearly stated. An organised account that is purposeful in responding to the question.

Detailed response e.g. exemplification is used to support answers.Clear, explicit comment.

Questions from old GCE

(a) Explain why the pattern of population change in some countries does not follow that predicted by the demographic transition model. (7 marks)

The model has been described as Eurocentric, and assumes that all countries around the world will follow the same four stages as European countries.

• It assumes that industrialisation will accompany development. It seems unlikely that some of the poorest African countries will ever industrialise.

• The decline in the DR in stage 2, linked to improvements in nutrition and medical advances, happened spontaneously in MEDCs over a period of time, as new inventions were implemented. LEDCs have been given the knowledge and medical advances and have seen their death rates decline more rapidly, and at present they are at lower levels than ever experienced in the MEDW. This has also resulted in higher rates of natural increase than seen in MEDCs.

• In certain countries, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa, birth rates are at a much higher level than they ever were in Europe. Very high birth rates generally occur due to cultural factors, such as religion.

• In some countries e.g. those in South East Asia, the time scale regarding the transition from stage 1 to stage 4 has been much reduced. The model covers a period of time well in excess of 100 years. In such NICs birth rates have fallen rapidly due to government policy e.g. China and/or availability of contraception.

• The model fails to account for changes in population size due to the effects of migration.

Level 1: (1-3 marks)

The answer lacks focus and either provides a description of the demographic transition model or might try to explain birth rates and death rates in LEDCs.

Level 2: (4-5 marks)

One of the bullet points is covered clearly, the use of place will not be specific; comments made would apply to any country of a similar type.

Level 3: (6-7 marks)

Two or more of the bullet points are covered, showing a more detailed understanding of the demographic transition model itself and its application to a relevant country.

(b) Explain how economic and political factors have influenced changes in fertility rates over time in the UK. (7)

There has been a reduction in fertility in the UK over the last 200 years or so. Answers may relate to stages of the DTM to explain changes in fertility. In the nineteenth century, people had larger families typically 6+ children. In the early twentieth century, family size reduced from 6+ children to 4 children by mid-century. By the end of the twentieth century, fertility dropped below 2 children per woman. Economic factors influencing change. In the nineteenth century children were an economic asset, they

contributed to the household income. During the twentieth century, school-leaving age steadily increased from 11 to 16. Children became economically dependent on their parents for longer. In the later years of the twentieth Century, it became more usual for women to work outside the home and to delay childbearing until their thirties, when they had accumulated possessions, wealth and economic stability. Political Factors. Education of women has been an influential factor. Equality laws were passed to ensure equal opportunities, more women are university educated at the start of the 21st Century. Provision of family planning, Abortion Act of 1960s all helped to encourage the use of contraception.

In the UK, family planning is provided free of charge but parents have been given financial help too with childcare e.g. child allowance, tax credits etc so Government influence regarding population policies can be regarded as neutral.

Level 1: (1-3 marks)

Describes changes in the birth-rate/fertility in the UK over time at a basic level but does not explain influencing economic/political factors. Otherwise explains factors using an unclear time element.

Level 2: (4-5 marks)

Describes changes in fertility and covers one type of influencing factor well. Substitute breadth for depth, perhaps a number of factors at a basic level. The time element is clear.

Level 3: (6-7 marks)

Uses some detail e.g. specific rates or legislation and refers to both economic and political factors over a longer time period. (7 marks)

January 2006

(a) Refugee: someone who flees from their country from conflict, from disaster or because of well-founded fear of persecution; a person in need of refuge in a foreign country. (1)

An economic migrant is a person who moves into a country to seek employment or better employment or a higher income. (1) (2 marks)

[pic] (i)

(i) Comment on the origin of asylum seekers arriving in the UK during 2001.

Most are from Asia and Africa. (1)

OR

Most are from certain individual countries in Afghanistan, Somalia and Iraq (allow for other sensible combinations). (1)

The majority of asylum seekers come from the LEDCs. (1) Allow a second mark for elaboration e.g. >50% from Asia and Africa i.e. use of the values. 33% from Asia (1)

None from North America and few from MEDCs within Europe (e.g. Romania)

Many of the countries listed have recently been at war e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Fed. Republic of Yugoslavia. (1)

Many of the countries have persecuted minority groups e.g. Turkey, Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka. (1) (Don’t allow sweeping statements linked to famine)

1 mark for describing origin using data from the table. (3 marks)

(ii) [pic]

Description

Mainly males, 78% male compared to 22% female

Majority are under the age of 35, 81% compared to 19% over the age of 35.

More than three times as many young females than elderly female refugees aged 35 and older.

More than four times as many young males than male refugees aged 35 and older.

Reasons.

Males are generally more mobile than females, e.g. in some LEDCs females may not be allowed to travel alone. Also women tend to be responsible for children so it may be more difficult for them to flee.

Younger people are also more mobile; if escape is initially on foot it might be difficult for elderly people to physically move. Also, people over 35 tend to have more family ties.

The overwhelming number of males might be partly due to the fact that some are economic migrants. In reality those seeking asylum should be all ages and both sexes in more equal proportions because natural disasters do not target a particular sex or age group. In LEDCs it is the men who mainly seek work outside the home.

Level 1 (1-3 marks)

Predominantly description of the characteristics of the asylum seekers. Reasons will be limited and probably be linked to the mobility of younger people. One aspect might be well done.

Level 2 (4-5 marks)

The description will be clear and accurate and use may be made of the data.Reasons will be given. (5 marks)

Question June 2006

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(a) (i) Convex sides to pyramid or bulges in the middle (1) recessive shape overall (1) base is narrower than the middle section (1). 2 marks

(ii) (ii) Outline the differences between the population structures of Inner London and Eastbourne.

Inner London has a higher percentage of young dependents (1) 18-20% compared to 15% in Eastbourne – elaboration (1).

Eastbourne has more elderly dependents than Inner London (1) 25% in Eastbourne compared to 10% in Inner London (1).

Higher percentage of economically active population in Inner London, (particularly young adults), compared to Eastbourne (1) use of values (1) i.e.simple statements giving a difference (1) elaborating using values (2). 3 marks

January 2007

(b) How can migration be classified?

Migration can be classified by distance, nature of origin, scale, destination, regions etc. For example:

International migration is movement of people across international boundaries, e.g. large numbers of people moving from the Indian sub-continent to the UK in the 1960s.

National or regional migration is large numbers of people moving from one part of the country to another, e.g. the drift towards the SE in the UK in the 1980s and 1990s.

Rural to urban migration involves mass movement of people from the countryside to nearby urban areas. In the UK this type of migration was evident during the eighteenth and early part of the twentieth century, but in LEDCs it has been a feature since the midtwentieth century.

Urban to rural migration involves large numbers of people moving from towns into the countryside. This has been a feature of population movement in the UK since the 1960s. Migration can also be classified by purpose or reason.

Further classification considers whether the move was forced or voluntary, temporary or permanent.

Reasons can be:

Economic, based around employment or standards or living.

Social, which would include health, education, stage in the life cycle and crime.

Cultural reasons might include discrimination because of race or religious beliefs.

Political reasons would be linked to human conflict or perhaps one.s political beliefs.

Environmental reasons would include natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.

Level marking

Level 1 (Basic) (1-3 marks)

Different types of migration may be described without an obvious understanding of how they can be classified. One basic classification may be given with little explanation e.g.

temporary versus permanent.

Level 2 (Clear) (4-5 marks)

The term classification will be clearly understood and candidates will provide an organised classification of migration by either scale or purpose, describing two or more

types or scales of movement. At the top of the level there might be elaboration, using examples as illustration.

(c) The population of the UK has changed over the last 100 years as a result of both natural increase and migration. Examine the factors influencing natural population change in the UK over the last 100 years.

In 1900 we had reached stage 3 in the Demographic Transition Model. Birth rates had started to follow the already well-established downward trend of death rates. Natural increase at 11 per thousand, although higher than at any other time over the last 100 years, was already lower than it had previously been. Answers that start with stage one and two of the DTM will be self-penalising. Many will be restricted to Level 1.

The overall trend in natural increase shows a decline. Natural increase has fallen because:

Birth rates are much lower than previously. They have been influenced by factors such as children being required by law to attend school and restricted from working, education of women and raised expectations including mothers starting to choose careers over a large family, and thus delaying the onset of childbearing.

Death rates have also fallen because of improvements in standards of living, including access to clean water and health care. Over the last century life expectancy has risen considerably. Reductions in infant mortality have influenced the fall in the death rate too. Improvements in antenatal and neonatal care and the provision of vaccinations have been particularly important.

June 2007

(a) [pic]

(i) Describe the relationship between fertility rate and mean age of mother at birth

shown in Figure 1.

(i) Negative relationship (1). Overall the fertility rate has fallen and the mean age of mother at birth has risen (1). Accurate use of values will give an elaboration mark. These values will be calculated, not lifted, e.g. fertility rate has fallen by 0.19 children per woman and the age of the mother at birth has risen by 2.4 years.

Otherwise the second mark can come from noting anomalies to the overall trend, e.g. the FR rose in 1991. 2 marks

The number of children has fallen and age of birth of mother risen because increasingly women choose university and careers over marriage and childrearing (up to 2). Children are expensive, so many people delay starting a family until they can afford the cost. Some people choose greater personal wealth and material possessions over children (up to 2). It is possible to control family size and birth in the UK as birth control and abortions are available (1). Older females are less fertile so those delaying starting a family are less able to conceive (up to 2). 3 marks

(ii) Examine the strengths and weaknesses of the Demographic Transition Model when used to study population change in MEDCs and LEDCs.

Strengths include:

The model provides a useful generalisation of population change over time.

It can be used to compare rates of growth between different countries at a given point in time.

Can be a useful predictive tool, so that future changes can be forecasted.

It can be used to estimate population structure.

Weaknesses of the model:

The model is Eurocentric, and assumes that all countries will pass through the same stages. Some LEDCs appear to skip stages, e.g. China.s one child policy implemented in 1980 resulted in a rapidly declining birth rate.

It does not take migration into account as a component of population growth/decline.

Some LEDCs appear to be stuck in stage 2. Their death rates have fallen, but their birth rates remain high, due to cultural or religious reasons.

The relationship between population growth and economic development, seen in MEDCs, has been much more tenuous in the LEDW.

Some countries in the LEDW had a much larger base population than those in Europe at the start of the transition, so the impact of population growth during stage 2 and early part of stage 3 has been far greater.

Model irons out major fluctuations caused by natural disasters, wars etc.

Originally no fifth stage in the model

Level marking

Level 3 (Detailed) (9-10 marks)

A well-balanced response, with some good use of detail, e.g. relevant countries might be used as support. Both strengths and weaknesses will be considered equally in MEDCs and LEDCs.

Question January 2008

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1 (a) (i) With reference to Figure 1a, contrast the numbers of young dependants with the numbers of people in the 15–29 year age bands.

There are more 15-29 year olds than 0-14 year olds (1). 7-8m 0-14s compared to 9-10m 15-29s / roughly 75% the number of 15-29s (up to 2 marks). (2 marks)

1 (a) (ii) Suggest reasons for the fluctuations in the numbers of people below the age of 40 shown in Figure 1a. (3 marks)

Fewer 0-14 year olds / contracting base as a result in a reduction in fertility/birth rate/out-migration in recent years (1). This could also be a result of the lower numbers of adults in the 25-39 age bands who would be the parents (1). Bulge in the 15-29 age groups could be the result of a previous baby boom (1). Contraction in the pyramid in the 25-39 year olds could be a result of out-migration of young adults (1). Max. 1 if points are not linked to an age band.

1 (a) (iii) Account for the projected changes in population structure between 2000 and 2050, shown by Figures 1a and 1b.

Increase in the proportion of elderly in the population as a result of increasing life expectancy, due to improvements in health care, standards of living, nutrition etc. Poland has reached stage 5 in the Demographic Transition Model, where birth rates have fallen below

death rates. Proportion of elderly women has also increased dramatically since 2000.

The lower, but stable birth rate accounts for the narrow base and straight sides in the 0-24 year age groups. This is partly due to people choosing to have a smaller family because women work, availability of contraception, cost of bringing up a child in an MEDC etc. The reduction in the number of young could also be a consequence of the previous out-migration of young adults, suggested in the 2000 pyramid, leaving behind fewer adults in the reproductive age groups.

Level 2 (Clear) (4-5 marks)

Changes in more than one section of the pyramid are noted and accounted for clearly.

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