Error Rates in Forensic Science - Arizona State University
Error Rates in Forensic Science
Jonathan J. Koehler Professor of Law & Professor of Business
jay.koehler@asu.edu
Forensic Science for the 21st Century Arizona State University Tempe, AZ
April 3, 2009
Forensic Scientists Make Errors
Source: Saks & Koehler, 309 Science 892 (2005)
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Why Do Error Rates Matter?
Because the probative value of a reported association (or "match") is restricted by the chance that a false positive error occurred
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Error Rates by Area
Modality Bitemarks Voice Identification Handwriting Hair Fingerprints (by person) Fingerprints (by sample) DNA (through 1998)
Error Rate 64% 63% 40% 35%
4% to 7% 0.6%
0.2% to 1.2%
Interpret these error rates with great caution ...
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Why the Caution?
Because existing studies and tests were not designed to provide a reliable indication of error rates in the various forensic sciences
Because the data are minimal (sometimes based on a single study)
Because "error rate" can be defined in various ways
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