Sharp Power Rising Authoritarian Influence

SHARP POWER

Rising

Authoritarian Influence

About the Forum

The International Forum for Democratic Studies at the National Endowment for Democracy

(NED) is a leading center for analysis and discussion of the theory and practice of democracy

around the world. The Forum complements NED¡¯s core mission¡ªassisting civil society groups

abroad in their efforts to foster and strengthen democracy¡ªby linking the academic community

with activists from across the globe. Through its multifaceted activities, the Forum responds to

challenges facing countries around the world by analyzing opportunities for democratic transition, reform, and consolidation. The Forum pursues its goals through several interrelated initiatives: publishing the Journal of Democracy, the world¡¯s leading publication on the theory and

practice of democracy; hosting fellowship programs for international democracy activists, journalists, and scholars; coordinating a global network of think tanks; and undertaking a diverse

range of analytical initiatives to explore critical themes relating to democratic development.

About the National Endowment for Democracy

The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) is a private, nonprofit foundation dedicated

to the growth and strengthening of democratic institutions around the world. Each year, NED

makes more than 1,700 grants to support the projects of non-governmental groups abroad who

are working for democratic goals in more than 90 countries. Since its founding in 1983, the

Endowment has remained on the leading edge of democratic struggles everywhere, while evolving into a multifaceted institution that is a hub of activity, resources, and intellectual exchange

for activists, practitioners, and scholars of democracy the world over.

About the Network of Democracy Research Institutes (NDRI)

The Network of Democracy Research Institutes (NDRI) is a global network of think tanks that

conduct research and analysis on democracy, democratization, and related topics in comparative government and international affairs. The NDRI is coordinated by the NED¡¯s International

Forum for Democratic Studies and is a key network of the World Movement for Democracy. A

unique global network, its mission is to foster interaction among international think tanks that

may not otherwise come into contact with one another, and to connect them with other democracy scholars and activists. The collaborative space created by the NDRI allows think tanks

from diverse parts of the world to initiate joint projects. The NDRI also encourages member

institutes to reach out in solidarity to one another and to share knowledge and experiences.

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Acknowledgments

The International Forum for Democratic Studies is grateful to the Network of Democracy

Research Institute members that participated in the production of this report¡ªthe Center for

the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL, Argentina), the Institute of Public

Affairs (IPA, Poland) and the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO, Slovakia). This project would not

have been possible without the hard work and dedication of the think tanks¡¯ lead researchers

and country report authors¡ªJuan Pablo Cardenal (CADAL), Jacek Kucharczyk (IPA), Grigorij

Mese?nikov (IVO), and Gabriela Pleschov¨¢ (IVO). CADAL executive director Gabriel Salvia also

played a critical role in facilitating research in the Latin American case countries. Special

thanks are also owed to Ludmila Flavia Gonz¨¢lez Cerulli and Carmen Grau Vila for providing

CADAL¡¯s lead researcher with on-the-ground research assistance and support in Argentina

and Peru, respectively.

The International Forum would also like to thank the many other experts who participated in

roundtable meetings held at the National Endowment for Democracy in May 2016 and January

2017 to discuss the issues that were the focus of this report. Included among them were a

number of Russia and China country experts, Latin American and European regional experts,

as well as many staff members at the NED. Their insights, perspectives, and suggestions

ultimately helped sharpen the final analysis and findings in this report.

Thanks are also owed to the International Forum staff who contributed to this report¡¯s

publication. Christopher Walker, NED Vice President for Studies and Analysis, provided

overall guidance for the initiative. Forum research and conferences officer Jessica Ludwig

played a pivotal role providing overall coordination of the think tanks¡¯ research efforts, as

well as crucial editorial feedback. Forum director Shanthi Kalathil also provided substantive

insights and valuable feedback during the report¡¯s production. In addition, the hard work and support provided by Melissa Aten, Dean

Jackson, Andrea Blazanovic, and Rachelle Faust were essential to organizing the roundtable meetings and bringing this

report to completion. Special thanks are also given to

Journal of Democracy assistant editor Rachel Bercovitz

for her keen eye in proofreading sections of the report.

The International Forum would also like to acknowledge Tyler Roylance, Shannon O¡¯Toole, and Andrew

Mosher for their editorial support for the papers

featured in this report.

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About the Authors

Juan Pablo Cardenal is a researcher of the Center for the Opening and Development of Latin

America¡¯s Advisory Council and is a journalist, writer, and researcher. Over the last eight years,

he has conducted on-the-ground research in over 40 countries on the topic of China¡¯s global

reach, including more than 1,300 interviews. He has co-authored three books which have been

published in eleven languages: La Imparable Conquista China (China¡¯s Unstoppable Conquest,

2015), El Imperio Invisible: El Exito Empresarial Chino y Sus Vinculos Con la Criminalidad

de Espana y Europa (Invisible Empire: The Success of Chinese Businesses and Their Ties to

Crime in Spain and Europe, 2013) and La Silenciosa Conquista China (China¡¯s Silent Army,

2011). He is also the author of a chapter about China in the book, Democracy under Threat

(2017). He was the China correspondent for the Spanish dailies El Mundo and El Economista

for a decade and is now a contributor to several international media outlets. He has also been a

speaker and panelist at numerous international institutions and forums. He holds a bachelor¡¯s

degree in journalism and an executive masters in International Relations from the

Geneva School of Diplomacy.

Jacek Kucharczyk is president of the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA), a leading Polish think

tank and an independent center for policy research and analysis. Mr. Kucharczyk has been

a co-founder and board member of a number of international NGOs, including the Prague

Civil Society Centre, the Policy Association for an Open Society (PASOS), and the European

Partnership for Democracy (EPD) in Brussels. He is also a former member of the Think Tank

Fund and Scholarship Program Advisory Boards at Open Society Foundations, as well as a former board member of the National School of Public Administration in Warsaw. He has authored

and edited articles, reports, policy briefs and books on European integration, democratic governance, democracy assistance, and populism. He frequently comments on current domestic and

European affairs and political developments for Polish and international media.

Grigorij Mese?nikov is a political scientist and president of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO),

a Bratislava-based think tank he helped found in 1997. He has published expert studies on

party systems¡¯ development and political aspects of transformation in post-communist societies

in various monographs, collections, and scholarly journals in Slovakia and other countries.

He regularly contributes analyses of Slovakia¡¯s political scene to domestic and foreign media.

He has co-edited and co-authored a number of books, including the Global Reports on Slovakia

(1995¨C2011), the annually published comprehensive analysis of the country¡¯s development.

He was a key author of the report on Slovakia in Nations in Transit published by Freedom

House (1998¨C2014). He served as a Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow at the NED in 2006.

Gabriela Pleschov¨¢ works at the Institute of International Relations, University of Economics

in Bratislava. Her research interests include relations between China and the European Union,

Central European policy towards China, and migration issues relating to China. Her publications

have appeared in journals, including Europe-Asia Studies and Problems of Post-Communism.

She is a contributor to reports published by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC)

on the topic of contemporary affairs between China and Europe.

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D E C E M B E R 2 O1 7

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

6

Introduction

From ¡®Soft Power¡¯ to ¡®Sharp Power¡¯:

Rising Authoritarian Influence in the Democratic World

by

Christopher Walker and Jessica Ludwig

8

Chapter 1

China in Latin America: Understanding the Inventory of Influence

??by Juan Pablo Cardenal

26

Chapter 2

Navigating Political Change in Argentina

??by Juan Pablo Cardenal

37

Chapter 3

Reframing Relations in Peru

??by Juan Pablo Cardenal

67

Chapter 4

Exploiting Political Polarization in Poland

??by Jacek Kucharczyk

94

Chapter 5

Testing Democratic Resolve in Slovakia

??by Grigorij Mese?nikov

5

and

NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY

Gabriela Pleschov¨¢

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124

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