Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy

March (update) 2017

RESEARCH AND INFORMATION

Research and Information

Briefing Paper March (update) 2017

Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy

This is one in a series of briefing papers that has been produced by the Research and Information team. It is intended that these papers will be used by Council services and, where appropriate, our Community Planning partners to assist policy development and wider service delivery. Some papers, including this one, may be of interest to a wider audience.

This paper looks at Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy in Aberdeen City, up-dating the Briefing Paper on the same topic published in January 2016. The main up-dates relate to Life Expectancy at birth as figures for this are produced on an annual basis. However, figures on Healthy Life Expectancy at local authority level rely on data collected in the Census and are therefore produced on a much more infrequent basis. These figures have therefore not been up-dated at a local authority area (although figures for Healthy Life Expectancy at Scotland level have been updated).

The data in this paper comes primarily from National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO). This paper presents a brief overview of the estimated Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at birth for males and females in Aberdeen City. It compares Aberdeen City to other local authority areas and to Scotland. It also looks at how Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy have changed over time as well as the relationship between these and deprivation. The paper also looks at Life Expectancy at birth for intermediate zones in Aberdeen City and gives information on Life Expectancy at age 65 years.

For more information on these issues, please contact: Research and Information Team Office of Chief Executive Aberdeen City Council 1st Floor, Old Town House Broad Street Aberdeen AB10 1FY 01224 523322 statistics@.uk

Other briefing papers in this series have included the following topics: 2014-Based Population Projections ? Aberdeen City Migration Report, Aberdeen City Population Report, Aberdeen City and Shire

These papers, and other statistical reports, can be found in the `Stats and Facts' section of the Aberdeen City Council website: .uk/statsandfacts

We value your comments/feedback and would appreciate if you could provide your comments on this paper by clicking the following link:

Research and Information, Briefing Paper, Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy Page 1

Summary

Life expectancy at birth is higher for women than for men. In Aberdeen City (2013-2015), life expectancy at birth for women was 80.9 years and for

men it was 76.6 years. These figures are slightly lower than Scottish averages of 81.1 years for women and 77.1 years for men. In Aberdeen City, life expectancy has increased for both men and women over the past 12 years. The increase has been higher for men (2.5 years) than for women (1.0 year). However, rates of increase have been lower in Aberdeen City than for most other local authority areas. As a result, Aberdeen's position relative to other council areas has worsened in the past 12 years ? dropping from 17th to 24th in the rankings for males and from 11th to 20th for females. Life expectancy is strongly associated with deprivation. In Aberdeen City, life expectancy at birth was 71.4 years for men in the 15% most deprived areas of the city compared to 77.7 years for men in the 85% least deprived areas. For women, the respective figures were 77.9 years and 81.6 years. There are substantial variations in life expectancy estimates in different areas of Aberdeen City (based on Intermediate Zones). For males, life expectancy at birth ranges from a low of 68.2 years in Woodside to a high of 84.9 years in Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield ? a difference of 16.7 years. For females it ranges from a low of 74.9 years in Woodside to a high of 87.0 years in Balgownie and Donmouth East ? a difference of 12.1 years.

Healthy life expectancy at birth is higher for women than for men. In Aberdeen City, males born in the period 2009-2013 had a life expectancy at birth of 76.9

years and a healthy life expectancy of 65.0 years, giving an expected period of `not healthy' health of 11.9 years. For women, the figures were 81.2 years and 67.4 years, giving an expected period of `not healthy' health of 13.8 years. Compared to other local authority areas, healthy life expectancy in Aberdeen City ranks slightly above mid-point ? ranking 15th (out of 32) for males and 14th for females. Lack of comparable data means that it is not possible to look at changes over time in healthy life expectancy for local authority areas. Data for Scotland, however, shows that healthy life expectancy has increased over time (1980-2008) for both males and females. The corresponding increase in life expectancy, however, means that the percentage of life expected to be in `healthy' health has remained constant at around 90% for males and 88% for females. As with life expectancy, healthy life expectancy is strongly associated with deprivation. In Scotland, for both males and females, healthy life expectancy decreased with increasing deprivation, and length of time in `not healthy' health increased with increasing deprivation. Additionally, the gap between men and women also increased with increasing deprivation.

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1. Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy (LE) at birth is an estimate of the average number of years a new-born baby would survive if he/she experienced an area's age specific mortality rates throughout his/her life. It provides a useful summary measure of mortality rates experienced across a population at a particular point in time. National Records of Scotland (NRS) produces life expectancy estimates for Scottish council areas. The estimates are based on the mortality probabilities indicated by the death records for the three years prior to the date of publication. The most recent estimates were published on 29th November 2016 (based on 2013-2015).

1.1. Life Expectancy at Birth In general, LE at birth is higher for women than for men. In Aberdeen City LE at birth is estimated to be 80.9 years for women and 76.6 years for men, i.e. a baby girl born in Aberdeen City in 2013-2015 could expect to live for 80.9 years while a baby boy born in Aberdeen City in the same period could expect to live for 76.6 years. The estimated LE at birth for both females and males in Aberdeen City is slightly below the corresponding estimates for Scotland of 81.1 years and 77.1 years (see Table 1.1 below).

Table 1.1: Life expectancy at birth, males and females, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2013-

2015

Male

Female

Life

Lower

expectancy

CI

Upper CI

Life expectancy

Lower CI

Upper CI

Years

Years

Years

Years

Years

Years

Aberdeen City

76.6

76.1

77.0

80.9

80.5

81.4

Scotland

77.1

77.0

77.2

81.1

81.0

81.2

Source: National Records of Scotland, available at: CI = confidence interval (95%)

Note: It should be remembered that life expectancy is an estimate ? and as such is subject to a margin of error. The accuracy of the results is indicated by calculating a 95% confidence interval (CI) ? the true underlying life expectancy lies within its upper and lower limits with 95% probability. So, looking at lower and upper CI limits for females in Aberdeen City, true life expectancy for baby girls born in 2013-2015 lies between 80.5 years and 81.4 years.

Life expectancy estimates for different areas or different groups can be said to be significantly different if their confidence intervals do not overlap. Therefore, looking at the above table, as the upper and lower CI limits for male and female life expectancy do not overlap, it can be said that female life expectancy is significantly higher than male life expectancy. Using the CIs to compare Aberdeen City and Scotland, it can be seen that while estimated life expectancy is lower in Aberdeen City than Scotland for both males and females, this difference is not statistically significant (i.e. the confidence intervals do overlap).

It is also worth noting that life expectancy results, particularly in smaller areas, can be affected by random variation in the annual number of deaths.

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Year s

1.2. Comparison with other local authorities Males: LE at birth ranged from a low of 73.4 years in Glasgow City to a high of 80.5 years in East Dunbartonshire ? a difference of 7.1 years. At 76.6 years, Aberdeen City has the 9th lowest estimated LE at birth of all local authorities in Scotland. Females: LE at birth ranged from a low of 78.7 years in West Dunbartonshire to a high of 83.5 years in East Dunbartonshire ? a difference of 4.8 years. At 80.9 years, Aberdeen City has the 13th lowest estimated LE at birth of all local authorities in Scotland. Figure 1.1 shows LE at birth for males and females for all of Scotland's local authority areas, highlighting the difference in LE at birth for males and females and also the differences between council areas. Average LE estimates for Scotland are also included. The areas are ordered by female LE at birth. Figure 1.1: Life Expectancy at birth for males and females by local authority area, Scotland, 2013-2015.

86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68

Males Females Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015, Available at:

A full table detailing estimated LE at birth and their 95% Confidence Intervals for each local authority is given in Appendix 1.

1.3. Changes over time Figure 1.2 shows LE at birth for males and females in Aberdeen City and Scotland over the period from 2001-2003 to 2013-2015.

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Figure 1.2: Life expectancy at birth for males and females, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2001-2003 to 2013-2015

82.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 70.0

Year s

Males - Aberdeen

Females - Aberdeen

Males - Scotland

Females - Scotland

Source: National Records of Scotland, Life expectancy for administrative areas within Scotland, Time series data, available at:

As can be seen from the above chart, life expectancy at birth has increased in all groups over the 12-year period. For males, estimated life expectancy rose from 74.1 years to 76.6 years in Aberdeen City (an increase of 3.3% over the period) and from 73.5 years to 77.1 years in Scotland (an increase of 4.9%). For females the increase was less pronounced than for males, with estimated life expectancy increasing from 80.0 years to 80.9 years in Aberdeen City (1.2% increase) and from 78.8 years to 80.1 years in Scotland (2.9% increase). The lower rate of increase for females compared to males has resulted in a slight closing of the gap between male and female life expectancy at birth, from 5.9 years in 2001-2003 to 4.3 years in 20132015 for Aberdeen City and from 5.3 years in 2001-2003 to 3.0 years in 2013-2015 for Scotland as a whole.

For most of the 12-year period, both male and female life expectancy at birth has been slightly higher in Aberdeen City than in Scotland. However, in contrast with the continuing upward trend for Scotland as a whole, in Aberdeen City recent estimates for LE at birth have dropped slightly ? from 77.0 years in 2011-2013 to 76.6 years in 2013-2015 for males and from 81.2 years in 2011-2013 to 80.9 years in 2013-2015 for females. While this is a relatively small drop (and not statistically significant), it does mean that current estimated LE is now slightly lower in Aberdeen City than in Scotland for both males and females.

Local authorities: Life expectancy at birth increased for both males and females in all local authorities in Scotland over the 12-year period from 2001-2003 to 2013-2015. In general the increase was higher for males than females (the only exception being Midlothian where the increase in life expectancy was higher in females than in males).

The rates of increase (i.e. the percentage change over the 12-year period) varied by local authority. In Aberdeen City the rate of increase in life expectancy was lower than the average increase for Scotland (3.3% compared to 4.9% for males and 1.2% compared to 2.9% for females) and for both males and females the rates of increase were the lowest across all local

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authorities in Scotland. As a result, Aberdeen City's position relative to other council areas in relation to estimated life expectancy has worsened in the last 12 years, dropping from 17th to 24th in the rankings for males and from 11th to 20th for females. Table 1.2 shows the estimated LE at birth for Aberdeen City and selected local authorities (top and bottom ranking for males and females) for 2001-2003 and for 2013-2015. The table also shows the actual change in years as well as the percentage change. Full details of life expectancy at birth in Scotland by local authority area and comparisons with 2001-2003 and 2012-2014 are given in Appendix 2a (males) and Appendix 2b (females).

Table 1.2: Estimated life expectancy at birth for males and females, Aberdeen City and

comparator local authorities, 2001-2003 and 2013-2015

Council Area

Life Expectancy at Birth1

2001-2003

2013-2015

Change over 12 years4

Years2

Rank3

Years2

Rank3

Years

%

East Dunbartonshire

77.1

1

80.5

1

3.4

4.4

Perth and Kinross

75.9

4

79.8

2

3.8

5.0

East Renfrewshire

75.9

3

79.3

3

3.3

4.4

Males

Aberdeen City Dundee City

74.1

17

76.6

24

71.9

27

75.1

30

2.4

3.3

3.2

4.4

West Dunbartonshire

70.8

30

74.8

31

4.0

5.6

Glasgow City

69.0

32

73.4

32

4.3

6.3

Scotland

73.5

-

77.1

-

3.6

4.9

East Dunbartonshire

80.4

5

83.5

1

3.1

3.9

East Renfrewshire

81.1

1

83.4

2

2.4

2.9

Na h-Eileanan Siar

79.7

13

82.9

3

3.2

4.0

Aberdeen City Females

East Ayrshire

80.0

11

80.9

20

77.9

26

79.4

30

1.0

1.2

1.5

1.9

Glasgow City

76.4

32

78.8

31

2.5

3.2

West Dunbartonshire

77.4

30

78.7

32

1.3

1.7

Scotland

78.8

-

81.1

-

2.3

2.9

Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015, Available at:



areas/2013-2015/list-of-tables 1The estimates are based on mortality probabilities indicated by the death records for the 3 years of the time period. 2The results may vary from year to year, particularly those based on small populations. 3Rank out of 32 local authority areas (high to low). 4Figures may not sum due to rounding.

1.4. Life Expectancy by level of deprivation

Life expectancy is strongly associated with level of deprivation. Using figures for the period 2011-2015, NRS have produced estimates of LE at birth by level of deprivation based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2016. Data zones in Aberdeen City were ordered by SIMD rank (from most to least deprived), with the top 15% then being assigned as

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Aberdeen City's 15% most deprived areas and the remaining 85% being assigned as Aberdeen City's 85% least deprived areas.

In Aberdeen City there was a significant difference in estimated life expectancy by level of deprivation. Life expectancy for men in the 15% most deprived areas was 71.4 years compared to 77.7 years for men in the 85% least deprived areas ? a difference of 6.3 years. For women, the difference in estimated life expectancy was less marked, at 77.9 years for women in the 15% most deprived areas, and 81.6 years for women in the least deprived 85% a difference of 3.7 years. See Table 1.3.

Table 1.3: Estimated life expectancy at birth in Aberdeen City for males and females, 20112015, by deprivation (SIMD 2016)

Life Expectancy at birth

95% Confidence interval

Males

Most deprived 15% Least deprived 85% Overall

Years 71.4 77.7 76.6

Years (70.4 to 72.3) (77.3 to 78.1) (76.1 to 77.0)

Most deprived 15%

77.9

(77.0 to 78.8)

Females

Least deprived 85%

81.6

(81.2 to 82.0)

Overall

80.9

(80.5 to 81.4)

Source: National Records of Scotland, Available at:

1.5. Life Expectancy at birth by intermediate zone 2009-2013

Estimates of life expectancy by intermediate zone (2006-base) are available on ScotPHO. The most recent figures relate to data from 2009-2013 (5-year average).

For both males and females there are important differences in estimated life expectancy at birth depending on where you live in Aberdeen City. For males, estimated LE at birth ranges from a low of 68.2 years in Woodside to a high of 84.9 years in Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield ? a difference of 16.7 years. For females it ranges from a low of 74.9 years in Woodside to a high of 87.0 years in Balgownie and Donmouth East ? a difference of 12.1 years.

Figure 1.3 shows estimated LE at birth by intermediate zones for males and females (ordered by female LE). Consistent with the pattern in Aberdeen City as a whole, in almost all intermediate zones, estimated LE at birth is higher for females than males ? the only exception being West End North where LE is 82.7 years for both males and females. However, the difference in male and female estimated life expectancy varies quite markedly between intermediate zones, ranging from no difference in West End North to a difference of 9.8 years in City Centre. As a result, the ranking of intermediate zones (i.e. from low to high estimated LE) differs for males and females. Full details of estimated life expectancy,

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