Report on Texas Growth Occupations 2017 .us

Texas Workforce Commission

Report on Texas Growth Occupations 2017

LMCI 1-5-2018

I. Executive Summary

Texas Labor Code Section 302.019 requires the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) to gather and study information relating to existing and projected shortages in high-wage, high-demand occupations in Texas annually, including for selected industries.

This report summarizes findings relating to existing and projected shortages in high-wage, high-demand occupations by industry in Texas. Data included in this report was the most current data available as of the end of fiscal year 2017. Thus, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data covers the period through first quarter 2017. The Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Help Wanted Online (HWOL) data cover the period through the September 2017 estimates.

As of September 2017, Texas has experienced 89 consecutive months of annualized employment growth.

Texas remains driven by a continued economic shift towards high-skilled jobs in the Business and Professional Services sector, while the state's rapid population growth and aging baby-boomer population increases demand for service sector jobs, primarily Leisure and Hospitality and Education and Health Services. These three industries, in addition to Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, account for over 55 percent of the jobs in Texas.

The occupations showing the highest current demand according to the HWOL data are typical of the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, Health Care, and Transportation and Warehousing sectors. These industries also currently show the highest employment growth rates.

For this report, TWC staff measured industry employment levels over the most recent available five-year period (first quarter of 2012 to first quarter of 2017) using employment levels reported by Texas employers under TWC's QCEW program. This report included industry-level employment data along with HWOL data to provide comparison and context.

This report contains TWC's most current long- and short-term projections for employment growth in Texas. Long-term projections were released in September 2016 with a base year of 2014 covering the period of 2014 to 2024. Short-term projections were released in February 2017 with a base year of 2016 covering the period of 2016 to 2018. As a result, this report uses current employment statistics programs such as QCEW, CES and HWOL to better understand the current economic situation. The next short-term employment projections, covering the period of 2017 to 2019, will be released in the Spring of 2018. The next long-term employment projections, covering the period of 2016 to 2026, will be released in Fall 2018.

Due to shifts in the economy, required education and job training for the occupations in this report ranges from professional occupations requiring a college degree, to skilled trades in construction or manufacturing that require specific technical skills training. Some jobs in this report require no postsecondary education. However, higher-paying occupations tend to require:

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a) a bachelor's degree and specific technical skill training, or b) some form of post-secondary education, specific technical skill training, and additional on-the-

job training. Since no official definition of a high wage occupation exists, TWC focused in this report on growing occupations that pay more than the Texas median wage of $35,484 per year. In preparing the projections, TWC examined more than 800 occupations, segmenting them for specific industries. Those growth occupations are listed by industry sector in Section II. For more information on TWC's methodologies, please refer to the Methodology section at the end of this report.

II. Growth Occupations in Growth Industries

Increasing populations and higher demand for goods and services continue to drive demand for workers in the United States, particularly in Texas and its surrounding states. In some key occupations, local supply has at times struggled to keep up with demand. This report focuses on the most in-demand occupations in Texas from 2014 through 2024 (long-term) and 2016 through 2018 (short-term). It is important to remember that even similar job titles will require unique combinations of technical skills, education, work experience, and soft skills based on each employer's unique needs. This section identifies occupations within major industries as defined in Chapter 302. The charts display staffing and wage information for a specific occupation in that specific industry. Occupations are then ranked by the projected employment change in Texas from 2014 to 2024. Listed industry employment data corresponds with that industry's North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code.

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A. Construction

The construction industry is projected to grow by 27.8 percent from 2014 to 2024, creating the need for 177,390 workers over 10 years. Occupational projections also indicate that the highest demand will be for supervisors and for specialty trade workers to fill positions such as Electricians, Plumbers, and Carpenters.

In first quarter 2017, employment with Construction companies reached 698,844 workers. The industry has grown 23.8 percent over the last five years according to QCEW data and demand for construction workers continues to rise. Texas second quarter 2017 home sales rose significantly, while housing inventory remains at 4.1 months, driving average home prices up 6.8 percent from last year. These trends indicate strong demand for residential, commercial and industrial building projects.

Construction occupations projected to add the most jobs in the long- and short-term and pay above the Texas median wage of $35,484 are listed below.

Long-Term

Occupational Title

Electricians Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Carpenters Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers Office Clerks, General General and Operations Managers Construction Managers Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers

Annual Average Employment

2014

39,740

Annual Average Employment

2024

53,490

Number Change 2014-

2024

13,750

Percent Growth 2014-

2024

34.6%

Average Annual Wage 2016

$45,064

43,440

55,330

11,890 27.4% $64,518

27,290 27,930

35,160 34,970

7,870 7,040

28.8% $45,765 25.2% $38,164

23,650

29,650

6,000 25.4% $40,437

14,680

24,000 17,280 21,080 13,450

19,910

29,200 22,160 25,160 16,460

5,230

5,200 4,880 4,080 3,010

35.6%

21.7% 28.2% 19.4% 22.4%

$43,211

$38,046 $126,436 $94,737 $54,478

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Short-Term

Occupational Title

Supervisors of Construction Trades & Extraction Workers Electricians Carpenters Plumbers, Pipefitters, & Steamfitters Operating Engineers & Other Construction Equipment Operators Construction Managers Office Clerks, General General & Operations Managers Heating, AC, & Refrigeration Mechanics & Installers Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers

Annual Average Employment

2016

Annual Average Employment

2018

Number Change 2016-

2018

Percent Growth 2016-

2018

Average Annual Wage 2016

47,920

43,260 30,820 29,850

25,970

23,310 26,290 18,940

15,960

14,780

51,490

46,210 32,910 31,800

27,770

24,800 27,770 20,230

17,020

15,760

3,570

2,950 2,090 1,950

1,800

1,490 1,480 1,290

1,060

980

7.4%

6.8% 6.8% 6.5%

6.9%

6.4% 5.6% 6.8%

6.6%

6.6%

$64,518

$45,064 $38,164 $45,765

$40,437

$94,737 $38,046 $126,436

$43,211

$54,478

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B. Manufacturing

Texas produces more than 11 percent of the total manufactured goods in the United States. It also exports more goods by dollar value to Mexico and Canada than to any other country. Despite a strong dollar, which typically reduces demand for exports, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (DFRB) manufacturing production index posted 15 consecutive positive readings in September, suggesting manufacturing output continues to expand in Texas.

The Manufacturing industry has changed in recent years with increased automation, driving up manufacturing wages for 94 consecutive months according to the DFRB monthly Manufacturing Outlook survey. This is likely due to an increase in demand for higher-skilled employees. These ongoing changes may have fed the contraction of 11,000 manufacturing jobs from first quarter 2012 to first quarter 2017. The industry began showing positive growth starting in November 2016.

Manufacturing industry employment is expected to increase by 7.2 percent by 2024. This increase spans a broad range of skill sets including Industrial Machinery Mechanics; Computer Controlled Machine Tool Operators; and Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers, among others as shown below.

Long-Term

Occupational Title

Industrial Machinery Mechanics Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders Maintenance Workers, Machinery General and Operations Managers Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers

Annual Average Employment

2014

10,990

Annual Average Employment

2024

14,090

Number Change 2014-

2024

3,100

Percent Growth 2014-

2024

28.2%

Average Annual Wage 2016

$54,224

32,130

34,910

2,780 8.7% $68,371

12,180

25,550 12,890

14,580

27,730 15,000

2,400

2,180 2,110

19.7%

8.5% 16.4%

$40,446

$40,281 $38,872

20,250

22,070

1,820 9.0% $69,338

11,420 7,110 16,750

25,340

13,220 8,660 17,990

26,560

1,800 1,550 1,240

1,220

15.8% 21.8% 7.4%

4.8%

$62,746 $44,713 $143,065

$41,330

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Short-Term

Occupational Title

Industrial Machinery Mechanics Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Electrical & Electronics Engineering Technicians Industrial Engineers Chemical Equipment Operators & Tenders Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal & Plastic Semiconductor Processors Software Developers, Systems Software Maintenance Workers, Machinery Electronics Engineers, Exc. Computer

Annual Average Employment

2016

10,510 13,420

Annual Average Employment

2018

10,980 13,780

Number Change 2016-

2018

470 360

Percent Growth 2016-

2018

4.5% 2.7%

Average Annual Wage 2016

$54,224 $38,872

7,390

7,630

240 3.2% $58,563

8,320 11,720

8,500 11,900

180 2.2% $95,355 180 1.5% $62,746

10,600

10,770

170 1.6% $40,446

3,990 6,480 6,970 4,540

4,160 6,630 7,120 4,680

170 4.3% $36,594 150 2.3% $105,988 150 2.2% $44,713 140 3.1% $114,522

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C. Agriculture and Forestry

Though the Agriculture and Forestry industry is one of Texas' smallest in terms of employment, it leads the nation in many ways. The industry produces the most cattle, cotton, hay, sheep, goats and mohair of any state in the nation.1 Texas also has the most farms and ranches in the country: 248,800 covering 130.2 million acres.2 In Texas and across the nation, this industry has been using fewer and fewer workers in recent decades as farming methods have become more efficient. Farms now tend to be fewer in number, larger and more expensive to operate, but also much more productive. From first quarter of 2012 to first quarter of 2017 the Agriculture and Forestry industry in Texas grew by 6.5 percent, adding 3,617 jobs. This trend is also supported by the Conference Board's HWOL data which has shown a 64 percent increase in job postings over the year. The industry is projected to add nearly 6,700 jobs by 2024, growing to 64,850 jobs total. Agriculture and Forestry industry jobs projected to add the most positions over the long- and short-term are listed below.

1 Texas Department of Agriculture () 2 Texas Department of Agriculture ()

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