Weekly Economic Update
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|MONTHLY ECONOMIC UPDATE |
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|MONTHLY QUOTE | |
|“Nothing in this world can take the place|September 2010 |
|of persistence.” |THE MONTH IN BRIEF |
|– Calvin Coolidge |For the stock market investor, last month was pretty lackluster – the DJIA suffered its first negative August since 2005, |
| |sliding 4.31% and struggling to keep above the 10,000 level.1 Volume was remarkably light and skepticism permeated Wall |
|MONTHLY TIP |Street. It was widely agreed that the economy was crawling along: the impact of the 2009 federal stimulus was fading, and |
|Updating your will is as important as |the government probably wasn’t going to ride to the rescue again. Businesses and consumers would just have to wait and |
|having one. If you drafted a will years |hope. Yet as August gave way to September, some hope arrived: indicators showed an economy that appeared healthier than |
|back, it likely needs some adjustments. |proclaimed. |
|Revisit your will often and keep it up to| |
|date. |DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH |
| |Our first shot of hope comes in the form of consumer spending and consumer confidence. Consumer spending rose 0.4% in July|
|MONTHLY RIDDLE |after a flat June. That was the biggest increase since March, and welcome after three months without a net gain. Personal |
|Tom's mother has four children. Each was |incomes were up 0.2%, and the personal savings rate declined to 5.9% from the previous 6.2%.2 The University of |
|born exactly one year and one month apart|Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index improved to 68.9 in August from 67.8 in July, and the Conference Board’s August |
|from the previous child. The first she |poll made the same move, rising from July’s 51.0 to 53.5. (Its expectations index rose from 67.5 to 72.5.)3,4 |
|named April, the second she named May, | |
|the third she named June. What did she |Our second shot of hope comes from the retail and manufacturing sectors. Analysts polled by expected the |
|name her fourth child? |Institute for Supply Management’s August manufacturing index to fall to 52.9 from the July mark of 55.5. Surprise – it |
| |came in at 56.3. Additionally, the Commerce Department said retail sales increased for the first time in three months in |
|Want more Articles? Visit our site at |July, reporting a 0.4% gain.5,6,7 |
| | |
| |In another positive sign, inflation reappeared. In July, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% after declining the three |
|Feel free to Contact Us at |previous months; the Bureau of Labor Statistics measured year-over-year inflation at 1.2%. The Producer Price Index |
|go4answers@ for any questions or |advanced 0.2% in July for a 4.2% year-over-year gain.8,9 |
|concerns you have. | |
| |Other indicators were less reassuring. Unemployment ticked up to 9.6% in August, and analysts were not surprised by that |
| |.1% increase. On a positive note, the private sector gained 67,000 jobs. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% in July, not the |
| |2.7% economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting. (It was the first gain in the category in three months.) The ISM|
| |service sector index also declined for August, still showing growth but descending from July’s 54.3 mark to 51.5.10,11,12 |
| | |
| |At the Fed’s annual Wyoming retreat, chairman Ben Bernanke said that the central bank would intervene in the economy if |
| |necessary, admitting that “although private final demand, output, and employment have indeed been growing for more than a |
| |year, the pace of that growth recently appears somewhat less vigorous than we expected.” He noted that Fed policymakers |
| |did not think the recovery was fading.13 |
| | |
| |GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH |
| |In late August, we learned that the European Union’s collective economy expanded in the second quarter at a rate unseen |
| |since 2006. The Eurozone PMI was 55.1 in August, still showing growth but down from 56.7 in July. Still, the index has |
| |been above 50 for the last 11 months of data. The pace of manufacturing growth in Germany, England, Italy and Spain slowed|
| |in August. Economists polled by Bloomberg felt the European Central Bank would keep interest rates at around 1% for an |
| |extended period.14,15 |
| | |
| |Both the government PMI and the most respected private-sector PMI in China advanced in August – the private sector index |
| |went from 49.4 in July to 51.9, a three-month peak. India’s manufacturing sector grew again in August, and Russia’s |
| |manufacturing sector expanded by the most since April 2008.15 |
| | |
| |WORLD MARKETS |
| |Some benchmarks did pull off gains, and many foreign indices outperformed the DJIA and S&P 500. The advances were found in|
| |the emerging markets: Indonesia’s JSX Composite, +0.4%; India’s Sensex, +0.6%; Chile’s IPSA, +2.8%; the Philippines All |
| |Shares Index, +3.4%; and Thailand’s SETI, a remarkable +6.7% last month. The big loser among notable indices was the |
| |Nikkei 225, which had its worst month since May (-7.5%). Other monthly descents: England’s FTSE 100, -0.6%; South Korea’s |
| |KOSPI, -1.1%; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, -2.4%; Germany’s DAX, -3.6%; France’s CAC 40, -4.3%; and Brazil’s Bovespa, -4.8%. |
| | |
| |Now how did the key MSCI indices fare last month? Not very well. In U.S. dollar terms, the MSCI World Index lost 3.92% |
| |while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index retreated 2.15%.16,17,18 |
| | |
| |COMMODITIES MARKETS |
| |After a bad July, gold futures enjoyed a strong August. Gold advanced 5.64% for its best month since April. (After eight |
| |months of 2010, gold looked pretty good compared to the S&P 500: +12.90% YTD.) August was rough for oil and downright |
| |awful for natural gas. Oil fell 8.90% after rising in June and July; the August slide left it at -9.30 YTD. Natural gas |
| |futures sank 22.49% in August, a major reversal after prices rose for four straight months; at the end of August natural |
| |gas was down 31.59% for the year. The U.S. Dollar Index went +1.89% for the month, moving from 81.54 at the end of July to|
| |83.08.19,20 |
| | |
| |REAL ESTATE |
| |Well, the National Association of Realtors did have a tiny bit of good news for us: in July, the median sale price of an |
| |existing home was $182,600, 0.7% higher than it had been in July 2009. That was about all the good news that the real |
| |estate sector gave us in August. Analysts knew home sales would drop without encouragement from the federal government. |
| |But they were stunned to learn just how much, especially considering that July is commonly the peak month for home buying.|
| |Existing home sales fell 27.2% on the month and were 25.5% under year-ago levels. New home purchases slipped 12.4% in July|
| |to the slowest pace since the start of recordkeeping in 1963.21,22 |
| | |
| |Mortgage interest rates continued their descent. Freddie Mac’s August 26 Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed rates on |
| |the 30-year FRM averaging under 4.5% (4.36% nationally) and rates on 15-year FRMs averaging below 4% (3.86% nationally). |
| |In the September 2 survey, those numbers got even smaller: 4.32% and 3.83%.23 |
| | |
| | |
| |LOOKING BACK … LOOKING FORWARD |
| |It was an unusual August – the worst for the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ since 2001. The numbers were definitely against the norm |
| |for the Dow – historically, August is the third best month for the DJIA, with gains occurring 65% of the time.24 |
| | |
| |% CHANGE |
| |Y-T-D |
| |1-MO CHG |
| |1-YR CHG |
| |10-YR AVG |
| | |
| |DJIA |
| |-3.96 |
| |-4.31 |
| |+5.46 |
| |-1.07 |
| | |
| |NASDAQ |
| |-6.84 |
| |-6.24 |
| |+5.22 |
| |-4.97 |
| | |
| |S&P 500 |
| |-5.90 |
| |-4.74 |
| |+2.81 |
| |-3.09 |
| | |
| |REAL YIELD |
| |8/31 RATE |
| |1 YR AGO |
| |5 YRS AGO |
| |10 YRS AGO |
| | |
| |10 YR TIPS |
| |0.95% |
| |1.76% |
| |1.65% |
| |4.03% |
| | |
| |Source: , , , - 8/31/101,25,26,27,28 |
| |Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. |
| |These returns do not include dividends. |
| |So how optimistic should we be for September? Well, we have some very good signs in the jobless report. August non-farm |
| |payrolls only shrank by 54,000, compared to expectations of a loss of 120,000 positions. The private sector gain of 67,000|
| |jobs also surpassed the gain of 41,000 analysts had forecast. Newly revised June and July numbers from the Labor |
| |Department indicate that the economy lost 123,000 less jobs than previously assumed.12 Factor in the recent gains in |
| |personal spending and personal income and the continued signs of growth in U.S. and world manufacturing and suddenly |
| |things seem a bit brighter. However, unemployment remains the biggest drag on the housing market and a significant drop in|
| |joblessness isn’t seen for a long time to come. |
| | |
| |Here are the key economic releases for the balance of September. We have the Fed’s September beige book (9/8), July |
| |wholesale inventories (9/10), August retail sales and July business inventories (9/14), August factory output (9/15), |
| |August PPI (9/16), August CPI and the preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (9/17), a Fed|
| |interest rate decision and August housing starts and building permits (9/21), August existing home sales and the |
| |Conference Board’s August leading indicators (9/23), August new home sales and durable goods orders (9/24), the Conference|
| |Board’s September look at consumer sentiment and the July Case-Shiller home price index (9/28). The August consumer |
| |spending data comes to us on October 1, in addition to the September ISM manufacturing index. |
| | |
| |FOR YOUR INFORMATION |
| |Using your 403(b) plan to pay for college |
| |Is using your 403b plan to pay for college possible and is it a good idea? The answer to both questions is yes, and there |
| |are actually two ways to do it. |
| |A 403b plan is a tax deferred retirement plan for certain Government employees and other public service professions |
| |including certain Ministers. It works very much like the more common 401(k) plans. Money is contributed to the plan before|
| |taxes are paid and the funds and its earnings are thus free from taxation until distribution after retirement. There is a |
| |stiff 10% penalty for withdrawing funds early, plus the withdrawals are taxed as income. It is always best to leave the |
| |funds in the plan until retirement. So, how about using your 403b to pay for College? |
| |Actually, this can be done in two different ways. The way the plans are set up makes them, in effect, tax deferred College|
| |savings plans as well as retirement funds. You are allowed to make withdrawals from the plan to pay for specific college |
| |expenses for your dependent children. The withdrawals are not subject to the penalty for early withdrawal. |
| |Taking a distribution from the 403b plan to pay for College has three major drawbacks. The funds withdrawn count as income|
| |and are subject to taxation. Since the amount of the withdrawal counts as income, it might also impact your eligibility |
| |for income based financial aid in the following year. Also, once the money is withdrawn from the plan it can not be |
| |replaced. The annual contribution limitations still apply. |
| |So, a better way to use the 403b plan to pay for College is to borrow from the funds in the plan. This option confuses |
| |many people because it seems like you are borrowing your own money, but this is hardly the case. Actually, your money is |
| |only acting as security for the loan. Your funds remain in the plan and continue to accumulate interest for retirement, |
| |which is their true purpose. Although you pay interest on the loan, it is almost as if you are paying it to yourself. The |
| |loan does not count as income so no taxes are owed, and it will not change your income level for income based aid in the |
| |following year. |
| |The only drawbacks to the loan plan for using your 403b plan to pay for College is that the loan must be repaid in five |
| |years and if you lose your employment the whole balance might suddenly become due. If you can not repay the loan, it is |
| |repaid from the funds in the 403b plan and this repayment is subject to the early withdrawal penalty and counts as taxable|
| |income. |
| | |
| |Everything you need to know about LOSAP! |
| |ABOUT LOSAP |
| |On January 18, 1998, the “Emergency Services Volunteer Length of Service Award Program was signed into law. This program |
| |is more commonly known by the acronym “LOSAP.” The statute defines a LOSAP as “a system established to provide |
| |tax-deferred income benefits to active volunteer members of an emergency service organization.” An emergency service |
| |organization generally includes all forms of volunteer fire and first aid organizations. For the purposes of administering|
| |the law, this definition includes those volunteer first aid organizations that charge for their services. |
| |The tax-deferred income benefits for emergency services volunteers come from contributions made solely by the governing |
| |body of the municipality or fire district, on behalf of those volunteers who meet the criteria of a plan created by that |
| |governing body. The contributions are deposited into a plan similar to the deferred compensation plans permitted for |
| |county and municipal employees (N.J.S.A. 43:15B-1 et seq.). These plans permit the governing body or the volunteer to |
| |direct the investment of funds in the different investment vehicles that may be permitted under the plan adopted by the |
| |governing body. The investment options may include different types of mutual funds or annuities. |
| |CREATION OF LOSAPs |
| |LOSAPs are not required; they are strictly voluntary. The programs are established by a sponsoring agency, which is the |
| |governing body of a municipality or fire district. While the law permits a county government to create them, virtually all|
| |emergency service organizations are municipally based entities. The law applies equally to fire districts where they |
| |exist. It is important to note that LOSAPs, other than those permitted and created pursuant to this law, are not |
| |permitted. |
| |Who creates LOSAPS? |
| |The law provides that LOSAPs are created for emergency service organizations by the jurisdiction under which they operate.|
| |The jurisdiction for volunteer fire organizations’ LOSAPs is as follows: |
| |1. By municipal ordinance for volunteer fire organization(s) in a municipality which is not |
| |served by fire districts; or, |
| |2. By resolution of a Fire District Board of Fire Commissioners in a municipality where they operate. |
| |3. Where there is more than one fire district within a municipality, each district may have its own LOSAP for its fire |
| |companies. If a fire company serves more than one district, the provisions of Section G of Local Finance Notice MC-98-6 |
| |apply. |
| |4. The municipality or fire district may only have one LOSAP for each emergency service, regardless of how many fire |
| |companies or first aid organizations operate within their jurisdiction. |
| |Volunteer first aid, emergency or volunteer ambulance or rescue squad associations (squad), require additional |
| |explanation, as the concept of “operating under the jurisdiction” may not relate in all cases, as squads often work |
| |independently of, or concurrently with municipalities and fire districts. Where a squad has unique operating |
| |relationships, the Division of Local Government Services should be contacted for a determination on whether a fire |
| |district or municipality would be considered a sponsoring agency. |
| |How are LOSAPs Created? |
| |The first step in creating a LOSAP is the adoption of the enabling ordinance or resolution. However, the ordinance or |
| |resolution does not take effect until the voters approve it as a public question at the next general election (for a |
| |municipality), or the fire district’s next annual election. Ordinances and resolutions creating a LOSAP must include the |
| |following items: |
| |• A general description of the program, including the point system to be utilized in |
| |determining eligibility for benefits; |
| |• A statement of the proposed estimated total amount to be budgeted for the program; |
| |• A statement of the proposed maximum annual contribution for an active volunteer member; and, |
| |• If the proposed LOSAP authorizes credit for prior years service, a statement of the number of prior years of active |
| |emergency service that may be credited for each active volunteer member. A majority vote of the sponsoring agency’s |
| |governing body is required to approve the ordinance or resolution. Consent of the Director of Division of Local Government|
| |Services is not necessary for ordinances, resolutions, or ballot questions regarding a LOSAP. However, at the request of |
| |the sponsoring agency, DCA will review individual ordinances/resolutions, ballot questions and explanatory statements. |
| |Copies of all approved LOSAP ordinances and resolutions must be filed with the Division within 30 days of the date of the |
| |referendum. Also, all election results must be certified by either the County Board of Elections or the fire district and |
| |a copy filed with the Division with 30 days of the date of certification. Once approved by the voters, appropriations for |
| |a LOSAP are included in the budget of the sponsoring agency as a separate line item. Municipal budget appropriations for |
| |LOSAPs may be treated as exceptions to the budget cap and require no other special treatment. Several other important |
| |matters related to the program are: |
| |• For municipalities, the calendar year following the referendum date is the first year of the LOSAP; for fire districts,|
| |it is the same calendar year as the referendum vote. |
| |• No municipality or fire district can have more than one program that provides cash payments for volunteers based on |
| |length of service. However, the LOSAP law does not affect other properly authorized current- year based programs, such as |
| |stipends for serving in official capacities or uniform allowances. Abolishing or amending a LOSAP requires the same |
| |ordinance or resolution and ratifying referendum. However, the ordinance or resolution abolishing or amending the LOSAP |
| |must be passed by a two-thirds majority of the full membership of the sponsoring agency. If the LOSAP is dissolved, all |
| |accumulated funds shall remain in trust for subsequent distribution to the individual contributors. The rules also provide|
| |that minor, clarifying, or administrative amendments that do not materially affect the elements of the plan approved by |
| |the voters may be amended by a majority vote of the governing body. |
| |LOSAP BENEFITS |
| |There are two important definitions to consider when dealing with LOSAP benefits: “Active volunteer member” means a person|
| |who has been so designated by the go verning board of a duly created emergency service organization and who is faithfully |
| |and actually performing volunteer service in that organization. |
| |“Year of emergency service” means a 12- month period during which an active volunteer member participates in the fire or |
| |first aid service and satisfies the minimum |
| |requirements of participation established by the sponsoring agency on a consistent and uniform basis. |
| |• Monetary Benefits |
| |If an active volunteer member meets the year of active service requirement, a LOSAP must provide a benefit between the |
| |minimum contribution of $100 and maximum contribution of $1,150 per year. While the maximum amount is set by statute, once|
| |a LOSAP is adopted, if authorized by the enabling referendum it is subject to periodic increases that are tied to the |
| |consumer price index (N.J.S.A. 40A:14-185f). The Division annually certifies the permitted maximum amount. A volunteer in |
| |an emergency service organization is eligible to participate in a LOSAP immediately upon becoming an active volunteer |
| |member of the emergency service organization [section 6(a) of the law, N.J.S.A. 40A:14-1889(a)], or be eligible to receive|
| |the benefit. It also permits a volunteer to “vest” after five years. |
| |• Recruitment and Retention of Volunteers |
| |One of the most practical benefits of LOSAP programs is that they can be used as a tool to ensure retention of existing |
| |volunteer members and to provide incentives for recruiting new volunteer firefighters and rescue squad members. |
| |HOW IS ELIGIBILITY FOR A LOSAP AWARD DETERMINED? |
| |Each sponsoring agency is required to establish, in its enabling ordinance or resolution, a point system that reflects the|
| |range of volunteer services that may be provided to the emergency service organization. The law does not prohibit the |
| |sponsoring agency from adopting a sliding scale of benefits that combines the use of points and years of service. One year|
| |of active emergency service is awarded for each calendar year in which an active volunteer accumulates the minimum number |
| |of points that are required by the sponsoring agency. The law permits a paid employee of a local government to receive |
| |LOSAP credits for volunteer activities during the volunteer’s regularly scheduled work periods. |
| |LOSAP PENALTIES |
| |In addition to a penalty of no less than $100 and no more than $1150, any person who knowingly violates the LOSAP law can |
| |be subject to a forfeiture of benefits and prohibition from serving in any emergency service organization in the state. |
| |Further, any person who knowingly misrepresents the credit earned by a volunteer or knowingly includes an individual on an|
| |annual certification list, who is not a qualified member of an emergency service organization shall be subject to a fine |
| |of no less than $100 and no more than $1150 for each individual whose credit or status was misrepresented. |
| | |
| |Retirement tips for individuals |
| | |
| |The Service offers you the following tips to help you take responsibility for your retirement. Set a Goal - "I think I can|
| |save $25 a paycheck." It's easy to procrastinate so set up a "painless" payroll deduction for saving. It doesn't matter if|
| |the money goes into a 401(k) plan, an IRA or into a plain, old-fashioned savings account, just start saving. |
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|The content of this material was provided to you by Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp. for its representatives and their clients. |
|Bruce Linger is a Representative with Lincoln Financial Advisors and may be reached at or 800 445-2448, or go4answers@. |
| |
|Securities and advisory services offered through Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp., a broker/dealer and registered investment advisor. Insurance offered through |
|Lincoln affiliates and other fine companies. 395 W. Passaic Street, Rochelle Park, NJ 07662-3016, 800-445-2448 CRN 201009-2045954 |
| |
|This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting Representative or the Representative’s |
|Broker/Dealer. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded |
|blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of |
|Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock|
|market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange |
|(the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities |
|listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange |
|and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, |
|and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The JSX Composite is an index of all stocks that trade on the Indonesia Stock |
|Exchange. BSE Sensex or Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitivity Index is a value-weighted index composed of 30 stocks that started January 1, 1986. The IPSA Index is a |
|Total Return Index and is composed of the 40 stocks with the highest average annual trading volume in the Santiago Stock Exchange. The Philippine Stock Exchange |
|All Share Index is a market capitalization weight index composed of all the stocks listed at the Philippine Stock Exchange. The Bangkok SET Index is a |
|capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The Nikkei 225 is the benchmark stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange |
|(TSE). The FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. The KOSPI Index is a |
|capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of selection of|
|companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt |
|Stock Exchange. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The Bovespa, the benchmark |
|stock index of Brazil, is the second largest in the Americas, and the leading exchange in Latin America. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index|
|that includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index |
|consisting of indices in more than 25 emerging economies. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its |
|completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors |
|cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is |
|needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks |
|are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. |
| |
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|26 - bigcharts.historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=8%2F31%2F00&x=0&y=0 [8/31/10] |
|26 - bigcharts.historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=8%2F31%2F00&x=0&y=0 [8/31/10] |
|27 - offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [8/31/10] |
|27 - offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [8/31/10] |
|28 - instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00] |
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