YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast - Yardeni Research

YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 11, 2021

Dr. Ed Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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S&P 500 Earnings: YRI vs. Consensus Forecasts (1/11/2021)

Yardeni Research-post tax cut

Analysts' Consensus

Figure A: YardLeevenl i ReseaYrOcYh% S&P 500LevEelarnings YFOYo%recast

2009

60.80

-7.3

60.80

-7.3

2010

85.32

40.3

85.32

40.3

2011

97.82

14.7

97.82

14.7

2012

103.80

6.1

103.80

6.1

2013

109.68

5.7

109.68

5.7

2014

117.86

7.5

117.86

7.5

2015

117.46

-0.3

117.46

-0.3

2016

118.04 a

0.5

118.04 a

0.5

2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

131.98 a 30.90 a 32.58 a 33.45 a 36.02 a

11.8 14.6 10.0

7.2 15.2

131.98 a 30.90 a 32.58 a 33.45 a 36.02 a

11.8 14.6 10.0

7.2 15.2

2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

161.93 a 38.07 a 41.00 a 42.66 a 41.18 a

22.7 23.2 25.8 27.5 14.3

161.93 a 38.07 a 41.00 a 42.66 a 41.18 a

22.7 23.2 25.8 27.5 14.3

2019

163.00 a

0.7

162.97 a

0.6

Q1

39.15 a

2.8

39.15 a

2.8

Q2

41.31 a

0.8

41.31 a

0.8

Q3

42.14 a

-1.2

42.14 a

-1.2

Q4

42.00 a

2.0

41.99 a

2.0

2020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

140.00 e 33.13 a 27.98 a 38.69 a 39.20 e

-14.1 -15.4 -32.3

-8.2 -6.7

135.79 e 33.13 a 27.98 a 38.69 a 36.92 e

-16.7 -15.4 -32.3

-8.2 -12.1

2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

170.00 e 39.00 e 40.00 e 45.00 e 46.00 e

21.4 17.7 43.0 16.3 17.3

167.61 e 37.64 e 40.45 e 44.22 e 45.28 e

23.4 13.6 44.6 14.3 22.6

2022

195.00 e

14.7

195.51 e

16.6

e=estimate. * Historical earnings growth rates and earnings are not adjusted for accounting and index composition changes.

Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 1 / January 11, 2021 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500: YRI Forecasts (12/11/2020)

Figure B: YRY/IY RSev&enuPe Gr5ow0th0(%R) eveRnevueneue, EarnE/iRn(Mgarsgin&%) MarEgarinningsForecast

2009

-12.9

908.40 a

6.7 a

60.80 a

2010

6.0

962.70 a

8.9 a

85.32 a

2011

9.4

1052.83 a

9.3 a

97.82 a

2012

3.8

1092.38 a

9.5 a

103.80 a

2013

2.2

1116.81 a

9.8 a

109.68 a

2014

4.2

1163.31 a

10.1 a

117.86 a

2015

-3.3

1124.39 a

10.4 a

117.46 a

2016

2.2

1149.18 a

10.3 a

118.04 a

2017

7.2

Q1

7.4

Q2

5.8

Q3

6.0

Q4

9.5

1231.57 a 292.78 a 300.98 a 308.22 a 329.59 a

10.7 a 10.6 a 10.8 a 10.9 a 10.9 a

131.98 a 30.90 a 32.58 a 33.45 a 36.02 a

2018

9.0

Q1

9.4

Q2

11.2

Q3

10.7

Q4

5.2

1343.01 a 320.39 a 334.64 a 341.27 a 346.71 a

12.1 a 11.9 a 12.3 a 12.5 a 11.9 a

161.93 a 38.07 a 41.00 a 42.66 a 41.18 a

2019

5.4

Q1

5.8

Q2

5.2

Q3

4.0

Q4

6.6

1415.20 a 338.85 a 351.91 a 355.02 a 369.42 a

11.5 a 11.6 a 11.7 a 11.9 a 11.4 a

162.97 a 39.15 a 41.31 a 42.14 a 41.99 a

2020 Q1 Q2 Q3

-1.1 -1.8 -10.3 -3.9

1400.00 e 332.59 a 315.61 a 341.23 a

10.0 e 10.0 a

8.9 a 11.6 a

140.00 e 33.13 a 27.98 a 39.42 a

2021

10.4

1545.00 e

11.0 e

170.00 e

2022

5.2

1625.00 e

e=estimate. Source: Yardeni Research, Inc. and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

12.0 e

195.00 e

Page 2 / January 11, 2021 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.



YRI S&P 500 Revenue, Earnings & Margin Targets

Figure 1.

1700

S&P 500 REVENUES & YRI FORECASTS

1600

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

1700

22

1600

1500

YRI Forecasts

1400

2020 (1400.00)

2021 (1545.00)

2022 (1625.00)

1300

Consensus Forecasts

2020 (1327.50)

1200

2021 (1435.30)

2022 (1535.91)

21 20

Q3

COVID-19

1500 1400 1300 1200

1100

1100

S&P Actual RPS

1000

RPS* (1364.33)

1000



Latest data thru 12/31/20

900

900

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

* Four-quarter trailing sum of revenues per share. Note: COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 2.

250

250

230 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE & YRI FORECASTS

230

210

(dollars per share , ratio scale)

210

190

YRI Forecasts

20

21 22

190

170

2020 (140.00)

170

2021 (170.00)

150

2022 (195.00)

150 Q3

130

Consensus Forecasts

130

2020 (135.79)

110

2021 (167.61)

110

2022 (195.51)

90

90

I/B/E/S Actual EPS

EPS* (141.79)

70

COVID-19

70



Latest data thru 01/07/21

50

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

* Four-quarter trailing sum of operating earnings per share. Note: COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / January 11, 2021 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.



YRI S&P 500 Revenue, Earnings & Margin Targets

Figure 3.

14

14

S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN & YRI FORECASTS (percent)

20

22

21

12

YRI Forecasts

2020 (10.0)

2021 (11.0)

2022 (12.0)

10

Consensus Forecasts

2020 (10.0)

2021 (11.4)

2022 (12.5)

12

Q3 10

8

COVID-19

8

Actual Margin

6

Profit Margin* (10.4)

6



Latest data thru 12/31/20

4

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

* Four-quarter trailing operating profit margin. Note: COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

220

220

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL

200

(I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv) (dollars per share)

200

180

YRI Forward

160

Earnings Forecast

2020 (170.00)

140

2021 (195.00)

2022 (210.00)

180

1/7 160

Q3

140

120

120

100

100

Earnings Per Share

80

Operating** (4Q sum) (141.79)

80

Forward* (168.15)

60

60



40

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly. ** From S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / January 11, 2021 / YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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