Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 24, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Margin Debt
3-6
September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 1.
900
840 MARGIN DEBT & WILSHIRE 5000
780
Margin Debt
Aug 50 9/23
720
Margin Debt*
40
660
(billion dollars) (911.5)
600
Wilshire 5000
540
Market Cap
30
(trillions) (46.3)
480
420
360
20
300
240
180
10
120
60
0
0
79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 2.
3.0
3.0
MARGIN DEBT*
(as a percent of Wilshire 5000)
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
Aug
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 3.
400
MARGIN DEBT* 350 (yearly change, billion dollars)
300
250
Margin Debt
400 350 300 Aug 250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
-50
-50
-100
-100
-150
-150
-200
-200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 4.
100
100
MARGIN DEBT* (yearly percent change)
50
50
Aug
0
0
-50
-50
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 5.
1000
MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500
Margin Debt
800
Margin Debt*
(billion dollars) (911.5)
S&P 500 Market Cap (37.3)
600
400
200
40 A9u/2g2
30
20
10
0
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.
Figure 6.
4
4
MARGIN DEBT (as a percent of S&P 500 market cap)
3
3
Aug
2
2
1
1
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.
Page 5 / September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Margin Debt
Figure 7.
900
MARGIN DEBT & RUSSELL 3000
850
Aug
3000
800
9/24
750
700
Margin Debt* (billion dollars)
650
600
Russell 3000 Index
2000
550
500
450
400
350
1000
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit Balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Wall Street Journal.
Figure 8.
1000
950 MARGIN DEBT & S&P 1500
900
9/24 Aug
1000 950 900
850
850
800
S&P 1500 Composite Index
800
750
750
700
Margin Debt*
700
650
(billion dollars)
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 6 / September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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