PDF Tale of Two Markets: Single-Family vs. Multifamily Construction

Tale of Two Markets: Single-Family vs. Multifamily

Construction

Housing Finance Policy Center Data Talk July 13, 2016

Speakers: Paul Emrath, Greg Willett, and Jamie Woodwell

Tale of Two Markets A. Single-Family Construction

Urban Institute Data Talk Series July 13, 2016

Paul Emrath Vice President of Survey and Housing Policy Research National Association of Home Builders

Outline

3

? Housing starts / NAHB's latest forecast ? Supply constraints / costs inhibiting single-family production ? Role of government regulation ? Supply vs. demand for housing in different price ranges

Total Housing Starts Since World War II

(in thousands)

2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000

800 600

400

200 0

Annual Starts Worst Pre-2008 Recession

1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

4

Single-Family Housing Starts

Rising, but still well below normal

2,000 Thousands of units, SAAR

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200 1,000

80% fall

800

2000-2003 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1,343,000 "Normal"

620,000

647,000

4%

713,000

10%

794,000

11%

916,000

15%

1,042,000

14%

2016Q1: 59% of "Normal"

5

2018Q4: 81% of "Normal"

600

Trough to Current:

400

Mar 09 = 353,000 May 16 = 764,000

+116% 200

0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

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