XLE Energy -1.26 -11.29 28.70 SLV Silver -0.68 -9.21 -10 ...

Red September (So Far)

? Below is a look at our asset class performance matrix using key ETFs (or ETNs, unit trusts, etc.) traded on US exchanges. It has been a red September so far with the S&P 500 (SPY) down 1.36% MTD. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was up on the month early Friday afternoon, but a sell-off into the close leaves it down 0.88% MTD. The Dow 30 (DIA) has been weaker than its large-cap counterparts, and small-caps and mid-caps have both underperformed large-caps as well.

? Industrials and Financials have been the weakest sectors so far in September with declines of more than 2%, and all eleven sector ETFs are in the red.

? Brazil is down the most of any country ETF this month, while China has bounced back quite a bit. Japan has also had a stellar month so far with a gain of 6.45%.

Asset Class Performance MTD, Q3, and YTD - Total Return (%)

US Related ETF Description SPY S&P 500 DIA Dow 30 QQQ Nasdaq 100 IJH S&P Midcap 400 IJR S&P Smallcap 600 IWB Russell 1000 IWM Russell 2000 IWV Russell 3000

MTD -1.36 -2.04 -0.88 -2.38 -2.73 -1.29 -1.90 -1.32

IVW S&P 500 Growth IJK Midcap 400 Growth IJT Smallcap 600 Growth IVE S&P 500 Value IJJ Midcap 400 Value IJS Smallcap 600 Value DVY DJ Dividend RSP S&P 500 Equalweight

-1.09 -1.44 -2.02 -1.69 -3.10 -3.63 -1.59 -1.47

FXB FXE FXY GBTC ETHE

British Pound Euro Yen Bitcoin Trust Ethereum Trust

0.61 -0.04 0.07 -2.57 -3.89

XLY Cons Disc XLP Cons Stap XLE Energy XLF Financials XLV Health Care XLI Industrials XLB Materials XLK Technology XLC Comm Services XLU Utilities

-0.41 -0.53 -1.26 -2.14 -1.49 -2.44 -1.87 -1.40 -1.59 -0.13

Q3 4.06 0.74 6.25 -0.08 -3.26 3.66 -3.38 3.21

YTD 19.93 14.58 20.32 17.45 19.50 19.11 13.42 18.75

6.87 0.82 -0.15 0.71 -0.97 -6.16 0.31 2.18

22.13 13.23 16.25 17.13 21.72 22.38 23.67 21.65

-0.11 -0.60 0.98 23.45 41.31

0.88 -4.01 -6.45 15.00 103.94

2.44 2.73 -11.29 2.43 5.75 -0.43 2.07 6.07 4.06 8.26

14.11 7.83 28.70 28.55 18.27 15.86 17.04 20.93 25.31 10.83

Global ETF Description EWA Australia EWZ Brazil EWC Canada ASHR China EWQ France EWG Germany EWH Hong Kong PIN India EWI Italy EWJ Japan EWW Mexico EWP Spain RSX Russia EWU UK

MTD -0.46 -4.95 -0.27 4.20 -0.10 -1.34 0.47 1.12 -1.97 6.45 -2.15 -2.24 1.81 -0.82

EFA EAFE EEM Emerging Mkts IOO Global 100 BKF BRIC CWI All World ex US

0.64 0.15 -1.65 0.96 0.47

DBC Commodities DBA Agric. Commod. USO Oil UNG Nat. Gas GLD Gold SLV Silver

0.94 -2.82 1.58 13.25 -1.48 -0.68

SHY 1-3 Yr Treasuries IEF 7-10 Yr Treasuries TLT 20+ Yr Treasuries AGG Aggregate Bond BND Total Bond Market TIP T.I.P.S.

-0.03 -0.23 -0.16 -0.02 -0.06 0.35

Q3 -0.69 -14.65 -0.08 -2.61 2.06 -0.35 -3.11 12.12 -0.28 7.80 4.21 -3.31 2.86 0.12

2.89 -4.82 3.47 -7.74 -0.10

0.57 -0.21 -2.17 32.65 0.94 -9.21

0.10 1.35 3.19 0.89 0.91 2.86

YTD 9.23 -5.23 21.50 -1.45 17.44 10.37 6.56 24.89 11.05 8.56 17.24 3.08 23.44 13.67

12.76 2.03 17.79 -3.08 10.26

31.70 15.18 47.83 88.59 -6.27 -10.50

-0.04 -2.10 -4.93 -0.78 -0.88 4.37



The Bespoke Report 9/10/21 Page 1 of 24

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After hitting its 54th record closing high of the year last Thursday, equities suffered a post?Labor Day hangover this week with the S&P 500 declining on all four of the week's trading days.

? In the post WWII period, there have only been four other years where the S&P 500 came out of Labor Day with declines on all four trading days of the week.

? The four prior years were 1972, 1991, 2001, and 2018. The table below shows the daily declines along with the S&P 500's performance for the rest of the year.

? Relative to the four prior years, the only one that was weaker than this week was 2001 when the S&P 500 would seemingly drop every day leading up to the 9/11 attacks for no reason, falling 4.22%.

? There's not a particularly large sample size, and while the S&P 500 was higher for the remainder of the year three out of four times, the one down year was a doozy when in 2018, the S&P 500 dropped more than 13%. Surprisingly, even with the 9/11 attacks coming the following Tuesday, in 2001, the S&P 500 still managed to finish the year higher than it was on the Friday after Labor Day.

S&P 500 Down Every Day of Labor Day Week: 1945 - 2021

Year to Date

Year Pre Labor Tues

1972

9.23

-0.25

1991

19.75

-0.83

2001

-14.14

-0.06

2018

8.52

-0.17

2021

20.75

-0.34

S&P 500 Performance (%)

Labor Day Week

Wed Thurs

Fri

-0.61 -0.24 -0.13

-0.56 -0.21 -0.01

-0.11 -2.24 -1.86

-0.28 -0.37 -0.22

-0.13 -0.46 -0.77

Entire Week -1.22 -1.60 -4.22 -1.02 -1.70

Rest of Year 5.86 5.48 1.28 -13.60

S&P 500: 1972

120

115

Labor Day Week

110

105

100 1/1/7 2

1400

3/1/7 2

5/1/7 2

7/1/7 2

9/1/7 2

S&P 500: 2001

11/1/72

1325

1250

Labor Day Week

1175

1100

1025

950 1/1/0 1

3/1/0 1

5/1/0 1



7/1/0 1

9/1/0 1

11/1/01

440 420 400 380 360 340 320 300

1/1/9 1

3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300

1/1/1 8

S&P 500: 1991

Labor Day Week

3/1/9 1

5/1/9 1

7/1/9 1

9/1/9 1

S&P 500: 2018

11/1/91

Labor Day Week

3/1/1 8

5/1/1 8

7/1/1 8

9/1/1 8

The Bespoke Report 9/10/21

11/1/18

Page 2 of 24

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward or Redistribute

? Even with this week's small drop, the S&P 500's price chart continues on 4600 a very smooth track higher with little in the way of 4200 a pullback for the last ten

3800

months.

? The saying that "the 3400

trend is your friend" cer-

tainly remains on the 3000

side of market bulls when

Sep-20

it comes to the S&P.

Nov-20

S&P 500: Last Year

Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

? The small-cap Russell 2,000's price chart looks quite different from the 2500

Russell 2,000 (Smallcaps): Last Year

S&P 500 still, and it con- 2300

tinues to struggle within 2100 a sideways range that is

1900

slanting slightly downward. Since peaking in 1700

Q1, we've seen a series 1500

of lower highs and lower lows for the Russell, although it was encouraging

1300 Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21 May-21

Jul-21

to see the index at least re-take its 50-DMA over the last couple of weeks.

Sep-21

? One area of weakness recently has been the Dow Transports, which is 16500

Dow Transports: Last Year

still viewed as a "leading" sector by many trend 14500

followers. Transports peaked a couple of 12500

months later than the Russell 2,000, but its 10500

short-term downtrend since its high in May is much more defined. The

8500 Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21 May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Transports index managed to get back above its 50-DMA for a bit in late August, but it's heading

into this weekend trading slightly in oversold territory.



The Bespoke Report 9/10/21

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward or Redistribute

Page 3 of 24

-17.205 -17.205 -17.205

? Below is a snapshot of the stocks that make up the Dow Transports index so you can see which parts of the group have been weakest recently.

? Ocean shipping company Matson (MATX) is one of the outliers in the group, trading significantly above its 50-day moving average at the moment. Avis Budget (CAR) is also quite a bit above its 50DMA and up 144% year-to-date.

? The airline stocks are mostly trading in neutral territory after selling off hard for the past few months.

? UPS and FedEx (FDX) are two of the weaker stocks in the group with both trading more than 5% below their 50-day moving averages.

? Rail transport companies Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP) are currently the two most oversold stocks in the group, with both trading two or more standard deviations below their 50-DMAs.



The Bespoke Report 9/10/21

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward or Redistribute

Page 4 of 24

? While the Transports used to be the guiding light for many traders, we think the semiconductors hold that role in the 21st century. And as shown in the chart below of the Philly SOX index (made up of most of the largest semiconductor companies), the semis have been trading a lot more positively than the Transports lately. This week, the SOX index once again tested all-time highs, and it has traded much more positively (including a nice gain on Friday) over the last few months than it did from March through May.

Philly Semiconductor SOX Index: Last 12 Months

3700 3500 3300 3100 2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

-17.205

? Below is a snapshot of the largest semiconductor stocks within the SOX index sorted alphabetically. Most of these names are up double-digit percentage points on the year, and the majority are above their 50-DMAs as we head into the weekend. NVIDIA (NVDA), ASML, and Applied Materials (AMAT) have led the group in 2021 with gains of more than 55%. Micron (MU) and QUALCOMM (QCOM) are the only two stocks shown that are in the red on the year.



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For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward or Redistribute

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