Chapter 6: Probability



Chapter 5: Probability AP Statistics

Outline Mrs. Harrison

Essential Questions:

1. What is probability?

2. Do “independent” and “disjoint” mean the same thing?

3. How can probability rules be used to determine the probability of an outcome?

4. How can simulation be useful?

Knowledge: You should be able to define, illustrate, or calculate the following:

□ Law of Large Numbers

□ Probability

□ Sample space, S

□ Probability Model

□ Event

□ Mutually Exclusive/Disjoint

□ Complementary Events

□ Independent events

□ Union/Intersection

□ Conditional

□ Simulation

Skills: You should be able to…

□ Interpret probability as a long-run relative frequency.

□ Describe a probability model for a chance process.

□ Use basic probability rules, including the complement rule and the addition rule for mutually exclusive events.

□ Use a two-way table or Venn diagram to model a chance process and calculate probabilities involving two events.

□ Use the general addition rule to calculate probabilities.

□ Calculate and interpret conditional probabilities.

□ Use the general multiplication rule to calculate probabilities.

□ Use tree diagrams to model a chance process and calculate probabilities involving two or more events.

□ Determine if two events are independent.

□ When appropriate, use the multiplication rule for independent events to compute probabilities.

□ Use simulation to model chance behavior.

Monday Tuesday Block Day Friday

|29 |30 |31/1 |2 |

| | |Idea of Probability & Simulation (5.1) | |

| | | |Probability Rules (5.2) |

| | |Simulation Practice | |

|5 |6 |7/8 |9 Pep Rally |

| | | | |

|General Addition Rule (5.2) |Conditional Probability (5.3) |Probability Digital Breakout |Monty Hall |

| | |Ch. 5 Quiz |Paper Wad Lab |

|12 |13 |14 |15 No Late Arrival |16 |

|Finish Paper Wad Lab | | | | |

|Ch. 5 FRAPPY! |Ch. 5 Review |Test 6: Ch. 5 Probability Rules| | |

| | | | | |

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