Explaining Correlation Class Exercise



Explaining Correlation Class Exercise

A local police chief in a small Midwestern town finds that as ice cream consumption

increases, the crime rates increases. As people eat less ice cream, the crime rate decreases.

• What explains this relationship?

• Is it a causal connection or is there something these two variables have in common?

Scientists have linked television-watching with childhood obesity. In fact, the degree of obesity

rises 2 percent for each hour of television viewed per week by those aged 12 to 17, according to a study in the Journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics. One explanation is that TV watching results in less exercise and more snacking (often on the high-calorie, low-nutrition foods pitched in commercials).

• Is that conclusion justified?

• What are some alternative explanations for the correlation?

Hippocrates’ delightful Good News Survey (GNS) was designed to illustrate errors that can be hidden in seemingly sound scientific studies. The survey found that people who often ate Frosted Flakes as children had half the cancer rate of those who never ate the cereal. Conversely, those who often ate oatmeal as children were four times more likely to develop cancer than those who did not.

• Does this mean that Frosted Flakes prevents cancer while oatmeal causes it?

The same GNS revealed that people who had had routine physicals in the previous 3 years were

twice as likely to report high blood pressure and cholesterol levels.

• Do physical exams cause health problems?

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