AESO 2020 Annual Market Statistics
AESO 2020 Annual Market Statistics
MARCH 2021
The information contained in this report is published for information purposes only. While the AESO strives to make the information contained in this document as timely and accurate as possible, the AESO makes no claims, promises, or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the contents of this document, and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions. As such, any reliance placed on the information contained herein is done so at the reader's sole risk.
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Price of electricity Pool price decreased 15 per cent TABLE 1: Annual market price statistics FIGURE 1: Monthly average pool price FIGURE 2: On-peak pool price duration curve FIGURE 3: Off-peak pool price duration curve
2
FIGURE 22: Monthly wind capacity and generation
23
Wind capacity factor increased
23
3
FIGURE 23: Annual wind capacity factor duration curves
23
3
FIGURE 24: 2020 Wind generation seasonal average
3
hourly output
24
3
Regional wind
24
4
TABLE 5: 2020 regional wind statistics
25
5
FIGURE 25: Monthly wind capacity factor by region
25
Spark spread decreased 27 per cent
6
Solar generation
25
FIGURE 4: 2019 and 2020 daily average spark spread
6
FIGURE 26: Solar generation total monthly output
26
Alberta Load Average load decreased 2.4 per cent
7
FIGURE 27: 2020 Solar generation seasonal average
7
hourly output
26
TABLE 2: Annual load statistics
7
Imports and exports
27
FIGURE 5: 2019 and 2020 monthly average load
8
Total transfer capability rating remained stable
27
FIGURE 6: 2020 weekly average weather-normalized
FIGURE 28: Annual total transfer capacity by transfer path 27
load vs. 2019
9
Capacity factor reflects increase in imports
28
FIGURE 7: Annual load duration curves ? on-peak hours
10
FIGURE 29: Annual capacity factor by transfer path
28
FIGURE 8: Annual load duration curves ? off-peak hours
10
Intertie availability factor
28
Seasonal load
10
FIGURE 30: Annual availability factor by transfer path
29
TABLE 3: Seasonal peak load
11
Availability utilization
29
Behind-the-Fence Load
11
FIGURE 31: Annual availability utilization by transfer path
29
FIGURE 9: Behind-the-Fence load as percentage of AIL
11
FIGURE 32: Annual interchange utilization with WECC region 30
Regional load
12
FIGURE 33: Annual interchange utilization with Saskatchewan 30
FIGURE 10: Regional average load
12
Imports into Alberta increased in 2020
31
Installed generation
12
Year-end generation capacity decreased 1.5 per cent
12
FIGURE 11: Year-end generation capacity by technology
13
FIGURE 12: Average annual generation capacity by technology 13
FIGURE 34: Annual intertie transfers by province or state
31
FIGURE 35: Monthly average intertie transfers
31
Achieved premium-to-pool price decreased in 2020
32
FIGURE 36: Annual achieved premium-to-pool price
on imported energy
32
Generation availability
14
FIGURE 13: Annual availability factor by technology
14
Ancillary services
33
Combined-cycle power is highest utilized technology
14
Cost of operating reserve decreased
33
FIGURE 14: Annual availability utilization factor by technology 15
TABLE 6: Annual operating reserve statistics
33
Combined-cycle generation capacity factor
FIGURE 37: 2020 market share of active operating reserve 34
remains the highest
15
Transmission must-run, transmission constraint
FIGURE 15: Annual capacity factor by technology
15
rebalancing, and dispatch down service
34
Gas generation supplied 46 per cent of net-to-grid energy 16
TABLE 7: Annual TMR and DDS statistics
35
FIGURE 16: Annual average net-to-grid generation
FIGURE 38: Monthly TMR and DDS dispatched energy
36
by technology
16 Uplift payments
36
FIGURE 17: 2020 monthly average net-to-grid generation
TABLE 8: Annual uplift payments
36
by technology
17
Payments to suppliers on the margin
36
Simple-cycle gas realized highest achieved premium to pool price
FIGURE 18: Annual achieved premium to pool price Coal-fired generation sets marginal price in 69 per cent of hours
FIGURE 19: Annual marginal price-setting technology
System flexibility
37
17
Net demand variability
37
18
FIGURE39: Distribution of 10-minute ramps for variable
generation, load and net demand in 2020
38
20
Forecast uncertainty
38
20
Short-term load forecast uncertainty
38
Supply adequacy Supply cushion increased 17 per cent FIGURE 20: Monthly supply cushion Reserve margin decreased 19 per cent FIGURE 21: Annual reserve margin
20
FIGURE 40: Distribution of day-ahead load forecast error
20
in 2020
39
21
Wind and solar power forecast uncertainty
39
21
FIGURE 41: Distribution of hour-ahead wind forecast error
21
in 2020
40
Unit on/off cycling
40
Wind generation
22
FIGURE 42: Average number of on/off cycles per generating
Wind generation served 7 per cent of Alberta internal load 22
unit, by technology and year
41
TABLE 4: Annual wind generation statistics
22
Final notes
41
2020 Annual Market Statistics
1
Executive summary
The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) facilitates a fair, efficient, and openly competitive market for electricity and provides for the safe, reliable and economic operation of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES). The AESO 2020 Annual Market Statistics report provides a summary of key market information over the past year and describes historical market trends. The accompanying data file provides stakeholders with the information that underlies the tables and figures in this report.
In 2020, 208 participants in the Alberta wholesale electricity market transacted approximately $5.7 billion of energy. The annual average pool price for wholesale electricity decreased 15 per cent from its previous-year value to $46.72/megawatt hour (MWh). The average natural gas price increased 25 per cent, averaging $2.12/gigajoule (GJ). The average spark spread based on a 7.5 GJ/MWh heat rate decreased 27 per cent to $30.81/MWh from its previous-year value.
The average Alberta Internal Load (AIL) decreased by 2.4 per cent over 2019 values.
Price Pool price
2019 $54.88/MWh
2020 $46.72/MWh
Year/Year Change -15%
Gas price
$1.69/GJ
$ 2.12 /G J
+25%
Spark spread at 7.5 GJ/MWh
$42.21/MWh
$30.81/MWh
-27%
Load Average AIL Winter peak Summer peak
2019 9,695 MW 11,698 MW1 10,822 MW
2020 9,462 MW 11,729 MW2 10,532 MW
Year/Year Change -2.4% +0.2% -2.7%
Demand from April through October was much lower than 2019 due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a decrease in average AIL of 2.4 per cent and a decrease in the summer peak of 2.7 per cent.
Installed generation capacity at the end of 2020 decreased 1.5 per cent from the end of 2019, due to the retirement of just over 500 MW of coal-fired units. In 2020, for the first time, natural gas generation overtook coal-fired generation3 as the primary source of electricity provided to the AESO grid. Gas-fired generation supplied 46 per cent of Alberta's net-to-grid energy.
Alberta was a net importer of electricity along all interties in 2020. Imports to the province increased 85 per cent from 2019 levels. Exports decreased by 84 per cent.
1 Winter 2019/20 seasonal peak was set January 14, 2020 2 Winter 2020/21 seasonal peak was set February 9, 2021 3 Several coal-fired facilities in Alberta have converted to "dual fuel" or "co-fired" capability, allowing them to operate as either natural gas- or coal-fired,
or both. The AESO is presently unable to discern which fuel is being utilized at any given time and, therefore, references in this report to coal-fired generation also reflect natural gas firing at these facilities.
2
2020 Annual Market Statistics
Price of electricity
Pool price decreased 15 per cent
The pool price during 2020 averaged $46.72/MWh--a decrease of 15 per cent from 2019. In addition, each day is separated into on-peak and off-peak periods: on-peak periods start at 7 a.m. and end at 11 p.m. every day; the remaining hours of the day make up the off-peak period. In 2020, the average pool price during the on-peak period decreased 15 per cent to $54.72/MWh, and the off-peak average pool price decreased 16 per cent to $30.71/MWh. The spark spread is a high-level measurement that estimates the profitability of operating a generic combined-cycle natural gas baseload generation asset in the energy market. In 2020, the spark spread fell 27 per cent to $30.81/ MWh. Table 1 summarizes historical price statistics over the 10-year period between 2011 and 2020.
TABLE1: Annual market price statistics
Year
2011 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 2020
Pool price ($/MWh)
Average
76.22 64.32 80.19 49.42 33.34 18.28 22.19 50.35 54.88 46.72
On-peak average
102.22 84.72 106.13 61.48 40.73 19.73 24.46 59.28 64.12 54.72
Off-peak average
24.22 23.51 28.29 25.28 18.55 15.37 17.64 32.47 36.40 30.71
Spark spread at 7.5 (GJ/MWh)
Average
50.46 47.28 57.58 17.56 14.12 2.77 6.70 39.54 42.21 30.81
The pool price sets the wholesale price of electricity--the settlement price for all transactions in the energy market. Figure 1 shows the monthly distribution of prices over the past five years. For 2020, the monthly average pool price ranged from a low of $26.36/MWh in May to a high of $120.67/MWh in January.
FIGURE1: Monthly average pool price
$140
$120
$100
$80
Average Pool Price ($/MWh)
$60
$40
$20
Jan-2016 Ma r- 2016 May-2016 Jul-2016 Sep-2016 Nov-2016 Jan-2017 Ma r- 2017 May-2017 Jul-2017 Sep-2017 Nov-2017 Jan-2018 Ma r- 2018 May-2018 Jul-2018 Sep-2018 Nov-2018 Jan-2019 Ma r- 2019 May-2019 Jul-2019 Sep-2019 Nov-2019 Jan-2020 Ma r- 2020 May-2020 Jul-2020 Sep-2020 Nov-2020
$0 Monthly Average
12-Month Rolling Average
2020 Annual Market Statistics
3
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