AESO 2020 Annual Market Statistics

AESO 2020 Annual Market Statistics

MARCH 2021

The information contained in this report is published for information purposes only. While the AESO strives to make the information contained in this document as timely and accurate as possible, the AESO makes no claims, promises, or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the contents of this document, and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions. As such, any reliance placed on the information contained herein is done so at the reader's sole risk.

Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Price of electricity Pool price decreased 15 per cent TABLE 1: Annual market price statistics FIGURE 1: Monthly average pool price FIGURE 2: On-peak pool price duration curve FIGURE 3: Off-peak pool price duration curve

2

FIGURE 22: Monthly wind capacity and generation

23

Wind capacity factor increased

23

3

FIGURE 23: Annual wind capacity factor duration curves

23

3

FIGURE 24: 2020 Wind generation seasonal average

3

hourly output

24

3

Regional wind

24

4

TABLE 5: 2020 regional wind statistics

25

5

FIGURE 25: Monthly wind capacity factor by region

25

Spark spread decreased 27 per cent

6

Solar generation

25

FIGURE 4: 2019 and 2020 daily average spark spread

6

FIGURE 26: Solar generation total monthly output

26

Alberta Load Average load decreased 2.4 per cent

7

FIGURE 27: 2020 Solar generation seasonal average

7

hourly output

26

TABLE 2: Annual load statistics

7

Imports and exports

27

FIGURE 5: 2019 and 2020 monthly average load

8

Total transfer capability rating remained stable

27

FIGURE 6: 2020 weekly average weather-normalized

FIGURE 28: Annual total transfer capacity by transfer path 27

load vs. 2019

9

Capacity factor reflects increase in imports

28

FIGURE 7: Annual load duration curves ? on-peak hours

10

FIGURE 29: Annual capacity factor by transfer path

28

FIGURE 8: Annual load duration curves ? off-peak hours

10

Intertie availability factor

28

Seasonal load

10

FIGURE 30: Annual availability factor by transfer path

29

TABLE 3: Seasonal peak load

11

Availability utilization

29

Behind-the-Fence Load

11

FIGURE 31: Annual availability utilization by transfer path

29

FIGURE 9: Behind-the-Fence load as percentage of AIL

11

FIGURE 32: Annual interchange utilization with WECC region 30

Regional load

12

FIGURE 33: Annual interchange utilization with Saskatchewan 30

FIGURE 10: Regional average load

12

Imports into Alberta increased in 2020

31

Installed generation

12

Year-end generation capacity decreased 1.5 per cent

12

FIGURE 11: Year-end generation capacity by technology

13

FIGURE 12: Average annual generation capacity by technology 13

FIGURE 34: Annual intertie transfers by province or state

31

FIGURE 35: Monthly average intertie transfers

31

Achieved premium-to-pool price decreased in 2020

32

FIGURE 36: Annual achieved premium-to-pool price

on imported energy

32

Generation availability

14

FIGURE 13: Annual availability factor by technology

14

Ancillary services

33

Combined-cycle power is highest utilized technology

14

Cost of operating reserve decreased

33

FIGURE 14: Annual availability utilization factor by technology 15

TABLE 6: Annual operating reserve statistics

33

Combined-cycle generation capacity factor

FIGURE 37: 2020 market share of active operating reserve 34

remains the highest

15

Transmission must-run, transmission constraint

FIGURE 15: Annual capacity factor by technology

15

rebalancing, and dispatch down service

34

Gas generation supplied 46 per cent of net-to-grid energy 16

TABLE 7: Annual TMR and DDS statistics

35

FIGURE 16: Annual average net-to-grid generation

FIGURE 38: Monthly TMR and DDS dispatched energy

36

by technology

16 Uplift payments

36

FIGURE 17: 2020 monthly average net-to-grid generation

TABLE 8: Annual uplift payments

36

by technology

17

Payments to suppliers on the margin

36

Simple-cycle gas realized highest achieved premium to pool price

FIGURE 18: Annual achieved premium to pool price Coal-fired generation sets marginal price in 69 per cent of hours

FIGURE 19: Annual marginal price-setting technology

System flexibility

37

17

Net demand variability

37

18

FIGURE39: Distribution of 10-minute ramps for variable

generation, load and net demand in 2020

38

20

Forecast uncertainty

38

20

Short-term load forecast uncertainty

38

Supply adequacy Supply cushion increased 17 per cent FIGURE 20: Monthly supply cushion Reserve margin decreased 19 per cent FIGURE 21: Annual reserve margin

20

FIGURE 40: Distribution of day-ahead load forecast error

20

in 2020

39

21

Wind and solar power forecast uncertainty

39

21

FIGURE 41: Distribution of hour-ahead wind forecast error

21

in 2020

40

Unit on/off cycling

40

Wind generation

22

FIGURE 42: Average number of on/off cycles per generating

Wind generation served 7 per cent of Alberta internal load 22

unit, by technology and year

41

TABLE 4: Annual wind generation statistics

22

Final notes

41

2020 Annual Market Statistics

1

Executive summary

The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) facilitates a fair, efficient, and openly competitive market for electricity and provides for the safe, reliable and economic operation of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES). The AESO 2020 Annual Market Statistics report provides a summary of key market information over the past year and describes historical market trends. The accompanying data file provides stakeholders with the information that underlies the tables and figures in this report.

In 2020, 208 participants in the Alberta wholesale electricity market transacted approximately $5.7 billion of energy. The annual average pool price for wholesale electricity decreased 15 per cent from its previous-year value to $46.72/megawatt hour (MWh). The average natural gas price increased 25 per cent, averaging $2.12/gigajoule (GJ). The average spark spread based on a 7.5 GJ/MWh heat rate decreased 27 per cent to $30.81/MWh from its previous-year value.

The average Alberta Internal Load (AIL) decreased by 2.4 per cent over 2019 values.

Price Pool price

2019 $54.88/MWh

2020 $46.72/MWh

Year/Year Change -15%

Gas price

$1.69/GJ

$ 2.12 /G J

+25%

Spark spread at 7.5 GJ/MWh

$42.21/MWh

$30.81/MWh

-27%

Load Average AIL Winter peak Summer peak

2019 9,695 MW 11,698 MW1 10,822 MW

2020 9,462 MW 11,729 MW2 10,532 MW

Year/Year Change -2.4% +0.2% -2.7%

Demand from April through October was much lower than 2019 due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a decrease in average AIL of 2.4 per cent and a decrease in the summer peak of 2.7 per cent.

Installed generation capacity at the end of 2020 decreased 1.5 per cent from the end of 2019, due to the retirement of just over 500 MW of coal-fired units. In 2020, for the first time, natural gas generation overtook coal-fired generation3 as the primary source of electricity provided to the AESO grid. Gas-fired generation supplied 46 per cent of Alberta's net-to-grid energy.

Alberta was a net importer of electricity along all interties in 2020. Imports to the province increased 85 per cent from 2019 levels. Exports decreased by 84 per cent.

1 Winter 2019/20 seasonal peak was set January 14, 2020 2 Winter 2020/21 seasonal peak was set February 9, 2021 3 Several coal-fired facilities in Alberta have converted to "dual fuel" or "co-fired" capability, allowing them to operate as either natural gas- or coal-fired,

or both. The AESO is presently unable to discern which fuel is being utilized at any given time and, therefore, references in this report to coal-fired generation also reflect natural gas firing at these facilities.

2

2020 Annual Market Statistics

Price of electricity

Pool price decreased 15 per cent

The pool price during 2020 averaged $46.72/MWh--a decrease of 15 per cent from 2019. In addition, each day is separated into on-peak and off-peak periods: on-peak periods start at 7 a.m. and end at 11 p.m. every day; the remaining hours of the day make up the off-peak period. In 2020, the average pool price during the on-peak period decreased 15 per cent to $54.72/MWh, and the off-peak average pool price decreased 16 per cent to $30.71/MWh. The spark spread is a high-level measurement that estimates the profitability of operating a generic combined-cycle natural gas baseload generation asset in the energy market. In 2020, the spark spread fell 27 per cent to $30.81/ MWh. Table 1 summarizes historical price statistics over the 10-year period between 2011 and 2020.

TABLE1: Annual market price statistics

Year

2011 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 2020

Pool price ($/MWh)

Average

76.22 64.32 80.19 49.42 33.34 18.28 22.19 50.35 54.88 46.72

On-peak average

102.22 84.72 106.13 61.48 40.73 19.73 24.46 59.28 64.12 54.72

Off-peak average

24.22 23.51 28.29 25.28 18.55 15.37 17.64 32.47 36.40 30.71

Spark spread at 7.5 (GJ/MWh)

Average

50.46 47.28 57.58 17.56 14.12 2.77 6.70 39.54 42.21 30.81

The pool price sets the wholesale price of electricity--the settlement price for all transactions in the energy market. Figure 1 shows the monthly distribution of prices over the past five years. For 2020, the monthly average pool price ranged from a low of $26.36/MWh in May to a high of $120.67/MWh in January.

FIGURE1: Monthly average pool price

$140

$120

$100

$80

Average Pool Price ($/MWh)

$60

$40

$20

Jan-2016 Ma r- 2016 May-2016 Jul-2016 Sep-2016 Nov-2016 Jan-2017 Ma r- 2017 May-2017 Jul-2017 Sep-2017 Nov-2017 Jan-2018 Ma r- 2018 May-2018 Jul-2018 Sep-2018 Nov-2018 Jan-2019 Ma r- 2019 May-2019 Jul-2019 Sep-2019 Nov-2019 Jan-2020 Ma r- 2020 May-2020 Jul-2020 Sep-2020 Nov-2020

$0 Monthly Average

12-Month Rolling Average

2020 Annual Market Statistics

3

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