Studying Hurricanes through the use of Simulations



Studying Hurricanes through the use of Simulations

By Sadie Carter, MSUM

         Topic: Hurricanes Grade Level: 8 Duration: 3 Class Periods

 

Student Objectives: Students will be able to:

1. describe how higher temperature causes hurricanes.

2. collect and organize data to determine the relationship

3. use the data to predict the future with the relationship between climate and hurricanes.

Engage: Day 1: Engage the students by talking about Hurricane Katrina. Have the students talk about what they think could cause a hurricane. Does a certain season cause more hurricanes? Why it is suspected that global warming could contribute to a more fearsome hurricane? Why do hurricanes occur in the eastern Caribbean or Atlantic, and move westward? Could prevailing easterlies and trade winds have something to do with hurricanes occurring? Teachers Note: Before this simulation is used the students should already know about prevailing winds at particular latitude, low pressure systems, and what causes thunderstorms. –

Explore: Day 1 cont.: The website for the simulation is:

it will open on the screen of the computer as the Gulf of Mexico. There is a season in the top right corner. The students can click on the season to change it from, fall, winter, spring, and summer. The students also can move the hurricane. There are numbers along side of the hurricane and that stands for the temperature of the water.

The students are expected to do the following to carry out the simulation:

a) Keeping the season the same (Hmmm, Maybe each group should do part a with a different season), move the hurricane over different water temperatures, letting it sit there for 15 seconds so it has the time to reach the appropriate strength. This will be done for 10 different temperatures. A graph of hurricane strength vs. water temp will then be created in Excel.

b) Keeping the water temp at a certain degree the students can see how the hurricanes can grow. With keeping the water temp at the same degree, the hurricane does grow a little. Especially a larger category of hurricane.

c) After making appropriate observations, answer the following question: What happens when the hurricane hits land?

d) When changing seasons, record water temperature at a particular location, (otherwise, it is hard to get a quantitative relationship). Teacher Note: It is just a matter of saying; the whole thing gets a little redder, thus warmer.

e) Test if the water temperature is the same for hurricanes to occur, would a particular season matter.

f) Students will share their information/ data by their graphs.

Explain:  Day 2: Individually or in a large group let students explain any type of pattern they see emerging from the above observations, and then go back into small groups to try to get a handle on the activities. The teacher needs to help the students towards looking at the three causes and effect relationships that the students need to explore, while keeping in mind the scientific method and trying to keep all variables except one constant.

These three relationships are:

a) Why is water temperature one factor of causing a stronger hurricane?

b) Is there a season that makes the water temperature more active for larger hurricanes?

c) Does water and land cause hurricanes to be stronger and longer, to weaker and shorter?

Extend: Day 3: Then the final day have them graph out the different size of the hurricanes and water temperature – and try to plot a line of best fit or do a trend line in Excel. Have the students go to this website shows data of hurricanes in the Caribbean going back to 1851. This website will get them to know why water temperature and the seasons have such a large effect. Predict particularly good or bad years for hurricanes and then verify with their model and see if they are right? Why do some years have more storms then others? Is it from global warming? Teacher Note: They will see that 2000-2004 was the stormiest and also the warmest, maybe our buddy Al Gore is right about this global warming being bad. Another thing that can be misleading is - the next part of the graph is much lower? The reason is because it is just 2005, and even if 2005 was a bad year, it is unlikely it had more storms that any 4 years together.. Make sure that the students know that all the other bars are in 4 year increments. Graphs may be misleading, but you just need to be sure to read them.

Teacher Note: For the students to see that the weather and temperature have a large factor in hurricanes go to , type in Key West, hit enter, click on “averages and records” which is near the bottom, click on the 26 hour forecast, and came up with 1957 as the year of the all time high temp (1957 from the other website one of the largest hurricanes) and 1981 as the coolest temp (which is near a relatively calm spell). This might help the students understand about the temperatures with hurricanes.

Evaluate: Discuss with your class the reason for testing the simulation, the reason is for them to be able to see the hurricanes and be shown how the water temperature and the seasons have the main factor of hurricanes being produced. Have them focus back to the relationship between seasons and temperature. Teacher Note: The simulations are tied to specific MnASS history and nature of science standards about theory/model testing and revision.

If these websites and lesson plan is used for high school students have them research more and use Excel to graph and write their data. Have them enforce the information with graphs and write out research essays.

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