Oil 2023 .windows.net

Oil

2023

Analysis and forecast to 2028

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond.

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Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of T?rkiye United Kingdom United States

The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA

IEA association countries:

Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine

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Revised version, June 2023 Information notice found: corrections

Oil 2023

Abstract

Abstract

The global energy crisis has moved energy security to the fore of the international policy agenda and boosted the momentum behind the deployment of clean energy technologies. Investment in clean energy is accelerating at a faster rate than for fossil fuels, helping bring peak oil demand into view. Oil 2023, the IEA's medium-term outlook, provides a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through to 2028. The report examines how a stronger drive by governments towards a low-emissions future and changes in behaviour will impact oil market fundamentals in the coming years. Oil 2023 explores some of the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead, including upstream investment, sources of new supply growth, spare capacity and shifting patterns of oil demand. It also provides insights as to how these changing dynamics will affect refining and trade flows.

I EA. CC BY 4.0.

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Oil 2023

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits

This publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division of the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security. The principal authors are, in alphabetical order, Yuya Akizuki, Alexander Bressers, Joel Couse, Ciar?n Healy, Peg Mackey, David Martin, Jacob Messing and Jenny Thomson. Julien Canu and Luis Fernando Rosa provided statistical support and essential research assistance. Toril Bosoni, head of OIMD, led the analysis and edited the Report. Keisuke Sadamori, director of the IEA's Directorate of Energy Markets and Security, provided expert guidance and advice. Deven Mooneesawmy provided essential editorial assistance.

The report benefited greatly from contributions from other experts within the IEA, including Yasmine Arsalane, Alessandro Blasi, Laura Cozzi, Paolo Frankl, Tim Gould, Paul Grimal, J?r?me Hilaire, Christophe McGlade, Jeremy Moorhouse, Apostolos Petropoulos and Gianluca Tonolo.

The IEA Communications and Digital Office provided production and launch support. Particular thanks go to Jad Mouawad and his team; Astrid Dumond, Oliver Joy, Jethro Mullen, Therese Walsh and Isabelle Nonain-Semelin. Diane Munro edited the report.

I EA. CC BY 4.0.

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Oil 2023

Table of contents

Table of contents

Executive summary.................................................................................................................. 8 Demand.................................................................................................................................... 11

Global summary .................................................................................................................... 11 Fundamentals ....................................................................................................................... 14 Energy transition gathers pace ............................................................................................. 17 Petrochemicals power ahead, China takes centre stage ..................................................... 26 Aviation and marine demand growth resumes ..................................................................... 30 Demand developments by region ......................................................................................... 33 Supply...................................................................................................................................... 42 Global summary .................................................................................................................... 42 Investment and exploration................................................................................................... 47 OPEC+ supply....................................................................................................................... 51 Non-OPEC+ supply............................................................................................................... 65 Refining ................................................................................................................................... 80 Global summary .................................................................................................................... 80 Refining capacity................................................................................................................... 82 Refining industry adapts to demand changes ...................................................................... 86 Regional developments ........................................................................................................ 90 Global oil trade ..................................................................................................................... 100 Global summary .................................................................................................................. 100 Crude oil balances and trade .............................................................................................. 102 Product balances and trade ................................................................................................ 107 Tables .................................................................................................................................... 112 Abbreviations and acronyms .............................................................................................. 124 Units of measure ................................................................................................................. 125

List of figures

Annual oil demand growth, 2022-2028 ........................................................................................... 11 Global cumulative oil demand growth by fuel, 2022-2028 .............................................................. 12 Impact of alternative oil price forecast scenarios, 2023-2028 ......................................................... 17 Cumulative transport fuels demand growth, 2022-2028 ................................................................. 18 New EVs and improved efficiency will avoid 7.8 mb/d of extra oil demand, 2022-2028 ................. 19 Global annual EV sales by country/region, 2010-2028 ................................................................... 20

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