Politics, governance, and state-society relations

Atlantic Council

RAFIK HARIRI CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST

POLITICS, GOVERNANCE, AND

STATE-SOCIETY RELATIONS

CONVENER

TAMARA COFMAN WITTES

The Brookings Institution

A WORKING GROUP REPORT OF THE MIDDLE EAST STRATEGY TASK FORCE

POLITICS, GOVERNANCE, AND

STATE-SOCIETY RELATIONS

REAL SECURITY: THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF GOVERNANCE

AND STABILITY IN THE ARAB WORLD

CONVENER

TAMARA COFMAN WITTES

The Brookings Institution

The Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan organization that promotes constructive US leadership and engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community in meeting today's global challenges. ? 2016 The Atlantic Council of the United States. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Atlantic Council, except in the case of brief quotations in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. Please direct inquiries to: Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005 (202) 463-7226, ISBN: 978-1-61977-516-9 This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council and its donors do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report's conclusions. November 2016

POLITICS, GOVERNANCE, AND STATE-SOCIETY RELATIONS

WORKING GROUP

CONVENER

Tamara Cofman Wittes

The Brookings Institution

WORKING GROUP MEMBERS

Dr. Daniel Brumberg - Associate Professor and Co-Director of the MA in Democracy & Governance Studies, Department of Government, Georgetown University; Special Adviser for Iran and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace

Mr. Leslie Campbell - Senior Associate; Regional Director for Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute

Dr. Steven Cook - Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

Dr. Larry Diamond - Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University Dr. Kristin Diwan - Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington

Mr. Issandr El Amrani - Project Director, North Africa, International Crisis Group Dr. Shadi Hamid - Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy, US Relations with the Islamic World,

The Brookings Institution Ms. Amy Hawthorne - Deputy Director for Research, Project on Middle East Democracy Dr. Steven Heydemann - Professor and Janet N. Ketcham 1953 Chair of Middle East Studies,

Smith College Sir John Jenkins - Executive Director, International Institute for Strategic Studies

Amb. Richard LeBaron - Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council Dr. Karim Mezran - Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council

Dr. Chibli Mallat - Presidential Professor, College of Law, University of Utah Dr. Nadim Shehadi - Director, Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies,

The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Dr. Maria Stephan - Nonresident Senior Fellow,

Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council

Dr. Maha Yahya - Director, Middle East Center, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1

Foreword

3

Executive Summary

6

Introduction

11

21

I. The Collapse of the Middle Eastern State System: Why It Happened, How It Happened, and What

It Means

II. The States We Are In: Existing Models

for Governance in the Middle East

28

III. Sketching the Path Ahead: How to Build Sustainable

Governance?

33

IV. Recommendations for US Policy

39

Conclusion

POLITICS, GOVERNANCE, AND STATE-SOCIETY RELATIONS

FOREWORD

The Middle East is seeing a century-old political order unravel, an unprecedented struggle for power within and between states, and the rise of extremist elements that have already exacted a devastating human and economic toll that the world cannot continue to bear. That is why we, in partnership with the Atlantic Council, have undertaken a bipartisan effort to advance the public discussion in the direction of a global strategy for addressing these and other, longer-term challenges confronting the region.

To that end, we convened in February 2015 a Middle East Strategy Task Force to examine the underlying issues of state failure and political legitimacy that contribute to extremist violence, and to suggest ways that the international community can work in true partnership with the people of the region to address these challenges. As Co-Chairs for this project, our emphasis is on developing a positive agenda that focuses not just on the problems of the region, but recognizes and seeks to harness its vast potential and empower its people.

We have undertaken this effort together with a diverse and high-level group of senior advisers from the United States, Europe, and the Middle East, underscoring the truly international approach that is necessary to address this global problem and the need, first and foremost, to listen to responsible voices from the region. We approach this project with great humility, since the challenges facing the region are some of the most difficult that either of us has ever seen.

Engaging some of the brightest minds in the region and beyond, we organized five working groups to examine the broad topical issues that we see as essential to unlocking a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East. These issues include:

? Security and Public Order

? Religion, Identity, and Countering Violent Extremism

? Rebuilding Societies: Refugees, Recovery, and Reconciliation in times of Conflict

? Politics, Governance, and State-Society Relations

? Economic Recovery and Revitalization

Over the course of 2015, each of these working groups discussed key aspects of the topic as they saw it, culminating in each case in a paper outlining the individual working group convener's conclusions and recommendations based on these discussions. This paper is the outcome of the working group on Politics, Governance, and State-Society Relations, convened by Tamara Cofman Wittes, Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. We are extremely grateful to Tammy for the time and dedication she offered to this project.

This paper represents Dr. Wittes's personal conclusions. While these conclusions were greatly informed by the debates within the working group, this paper is not a consensus document and does not necessarily represent the views of each individual working group member. Nor does it necessarily represent our views as Co-Chairs, or those of the Senior Advisers to the project. Instead, this paper is intended as a think piece to spur further discussions of these matters.

We greatly appreciated Dr. Wittes's exhaustive effort to drill into the complex matter of how the social contract in the Middle East is being redefined in a post-Arab Spring world. We found particularly astute her reminder that reform is also critically important for those states not currently visited by civil war. Her calls for inclusivity in governing--across divides on gender, age, sect, ethnicity, or other factors--are enormously important to setting the Middle East on a sustainable path. Furthermore, her examination of case studies such as that of

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