STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Energy ...

STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Energy Production and Consumption Summary

Current Forecast: December 7, 2021; Previous Forecast: November 9, 2021

2020

2021

2022

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

U.S. Energy Production

U.S. Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Current

12.81 10.67 10.79 10.87 10.69 11.28 11.11 11.63 11.67 11.72 11.91 12.09

Previous

12.81 10.67 10.79 10.87 10.69 11.28 11.07 11.47 11.69 11.77 11.97 12.16

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% -0.1% -0.4% -0.5% -0.5%

U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production (billion cubic feet per day)

Current

95.29 89.57 89.99 91.14 90.62 93.20 94.01 95.59 95.22 95.35 96.10 97.21

Previous

95.29 89.57 89.99 91.14 90.62 93.20 94.52 94.94 95.41 96.00 97.12 98.18

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% 0.7% -0.2% -0.7% -1.0% -1.0%

U.S. Coal Production (million short tons)

Current

149.2 116.2 135.9 134.1 140.3 142.7 153.3 146.6 153.5 149.3 159.6 158.2

Previous

149.2 116.2 135.9 134.1 140.3 142.7 153.3 145.6 153.6 145.4 157.4 154.9

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 2.7% 1.4% 2.1%

U.S. Energy Consumption

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)

Current

19.50 16.07 18.45 18.72 18.45 20.03 20.21 20.35 19.79 20.43 20.86 20.80

Previous

19.50 16.07 18.45 18.72 18.45 20.03 20.14 20.07 19.75 20.27 20.81 20.65

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7%

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)

Current

99.89 70.83 76.16 86.21 99.39 71.94 75.05 87.67 97.47 71.25 74.99 88.88

Previous

99.44 70.72 76.76 86.12 99.29 71.94 75.01 86.11 96.77 71.69 75.37 88.57

Percent Change

0.5% 0.2% -0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.8% 0.7% -0.6% -0.5% 0.3%

U.S. Electricity Retail Sales (billion kilowatthours)

Current

900

857 1,071 889

913

898 1,089 915

909

908 1,086 927

Previous

887

844 1,057 876

914

898 1,085 899

908

906 1,079 910

Percent Change

1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% -0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.8%

U.S. Total Energy Consumption (quadrillion Btu)

Current

25.21 20.63 23.47 23.82 25.05 23.16 24.37 24.53 25.13 23.37 24.67 25.25

Previous

25.21 20.63 23.47 23.82 25.05 23.16 24.19 24.47 25.16 23.29 24.59 25.09

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% -0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6%

U.S. Macroeconomic and Weather

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (billion chained 2012 dollars)

Current

18,952 17,258 18,561 18,768 19,056 19,368 19,465 19,675 19,915 20,150 20,363 20,518

Previous

18,952 17,258 18,561 18,768 19,056 19,368 19,430 19,661 19,880 20,101 20,300 20,463

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%

U.S. Manufacturing Production Index (index 2017 = 100)

Current

97.6

84.2

94.2

96.7

97.3

98.7 100.0 100.9 102.1 103.7 105.4 106.8

Previous

97.6

84.2

94.2

96.7

97.3

98.7 100.1 101.2 102.2 103.8 105.6 107.0

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.3% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1%

U.S. Heating Degree Days

Current

1,880 543

71

1,424 2,108 473

51

1,436 2,077 492

77

1,541

Previous

1,880 543

71

1,424 2,107 472

51

1,460 2,089 494

77

1,539

Percent Change

0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% -1.6% -0.6% -0.4% -0.4% 0.1%

U.S. Cooling Degree Days

Current

70

393

931

120

49

410

901

112

48

400

847

93

Previous

70

393

931

120

49

411

905

118

48

398

847

93

Percent Change

0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% -0.3% -0.5% -4.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.2%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook ()

2019

12.29 12.29 0.0%

92.87 92.87 0.0%

706.3 706.3 0.0%

20.54 20.54 0.0%

85.29 85.29 0.0%

3,811 3,811 0.0%

100.43 100.43 0.0%

19,033 19,033 0.0%

99.5 99.5 0.0%

4,320 4,320 0.0%

1,495 1,495 0.0%

Year 2020 2021

11.28 11.28 0.0%

11.18 11.13 0.5%

91.49 91.49 0.0%

93.37 93.34 0.0%

535.3 535.3 0.0%

583.0 582.0 0.2%

18.19 18.19 0.0%

19.77 19.68 0.5%

83.26 83.25 0.0%

83.46 83.03 0.5%

3,718 3,664 1.5%

3,815 3,797 0.5%

93.13 93.13 0.0%

97.11 96.88 0.2%

18,385 18,385 0.0%

19,391 19,379 0.1%

93.2 93.2 0.0%

99.2 99.3 -0.1%

3,919 3,917 0.0%

4,067 4,089 -0.5%

1,514 1,513 0.0%

1,472 1,482 -0.7%

2022

11.85 11.90 -0.4%

95.97 96.69 -0.7%

620.7 611.4 1.5%

20.47 20.37 0.5%

83.10 83.06 0.1%

3,830 3,804 0.7%

98.41 98.13 0.3%

20,236 20,186 0.2%

104.5 104.6 -0.1%

4,187 4,199 -0.3%

1,387 1,385 0.1%

Growth Rate 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022

-8.2% -8.2%

-0.9% -1.3%

6.0% 6.9%

-1.5% -1.5%

2.1% 2.0%

2.8% 3.6%

-24.2% -24.2%

8.9% 8.7%

6.5% 5.1%

-11.5% -11.5%

8.7% 8.2%

3.6% 3.6%

-2.4% -2.4%

0.2% -0.3%

-0.4% 0.0%

-2.5% -3.9%

2.6% 3.6%

0.4% 0.2%

-7.3% -7.3%

4.3% 4.0%

1.3% 1.3%

-3.4% -3.4%

5.5% 5.4%

4.4% 4.2%

-6.4% -6.4%

6.5% 6.6%

5.3% 5.3%

-9.3% -9.3%

3.8% 4.4%

2.9% 2.7%

1.3% 1.3%

-2.8% -2.0%

-5.8% -6.6%

STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: Energy Prices

Current Forecast: December 7, 2021; Previous Forecast: November 9, 2021

2020

2021

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

U.S. Petroleum

WTI spot ($/barrel)

Current

45.34 27.96 40.89 42.50 58.09 66.19 70.61

Previous

45.34 27.96 40.89 42.50 58.09 66.19 70.61

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Refiner composite crude oil acquisition cost ($/barrel)

Current

47.48 26.76 40.79 42.09 57.12 66.11 70.12

Previous

47.48 26.76 40.79 42.09 57.12 66.11 70.41

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4%

Brent spot average ($/barrel)

Current

49.97 29.52 42.97 44.34 61.12 68.91 73.45

Previous

49.97 29.52 42.97 44.34 61.12 68.91 73.45

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Gasoline, regular-grade retail including taxes ($/gallon)

Current

2.41

1.94

2.18

2.15

2.56

2.97

3.16

Previous

2.41

1.94

2.18

2.15

2.56

2.97

3.16

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Diesel, retail including taxes ($/gallon)

Current

2.89

2.43

2.43

2.47

2.90

3.21

3.36

Previous

2.89

2.43

2.43

2.47

2.90

3.21

3.36

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Heating Oil, residential retail including taxes ($/gallon)

Current

2.80

2.00

2.14

2.30

2.72

2.83

2.97

Previous

2.80

2.00

2.14

2.30

2.72

2.83

2.97

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

U.S. Natural Gas

Henry Hub spot ($ per million Btu) Current

1.91

1.71

2.00

2.53

3.56

2.94

4.36

Previous

1.91

1.71

2.00

2.53

3.56

2.94

4.36

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Residential Retail ($ per thousand cubic feet)

Current

9.44

11.74 17.50 10.53

9.75

13.87 20.36

Previous

9.44 11.74 17.50 10.53 9.75 13.87 20.16

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

U.S. Electric Utilities Fuel Costs ($ per million Btu)

Coal Current

1.92

1.91

1.93

1.91

1.91

1.92

2.03

Previous

1.93

1.91

1.93

1.92

1.91

1.93

2.05

Percent Change

-0.3% -0.3% -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -0.8%

Natural Gas Current

2.39

2.09

2.28

2.87

7.24

3.26

4.36

Previous

2.39

2.08

2.26

2.87

7.26

3.26

4.49

Percent Change

-0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% -0.3% 0.0% -2.7%

Residual Fuel Oil Current

12.14 6.66

8.84

8.92 11.28 13.08 14.21

Previous

12.15 6.65

8.85

8.90 11.28 13.09 13.69

Percent Change

-0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8%

U.S. Residential Retail Electricity (cents per kilowatthour)

Current

12.87 13.19 13.31 13.21 13.10 13.84 14.00

Previous

12.90 13.24 13.35 13.25 13.09 13.78 13.97

Percent Change Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

-0.3% -0.4% -0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook ()

Q4

Q1

75.96 80.45 -5.6%

69.66 74.92 -7.0%

74.96 79.45 -5.7%

68.43 73.73 -7.2%

78.27 82.14 -4.7%

73.00 78.26 -6.7%

3.27 3.26 0.5%

2.94 3.00 -2.1%

3.62 3.61 0.5%

3.29 3.39 -3.2%

3.43 3.40 0.8%

3.31 3.34 -0.8%

5.02 5.54 -9.4%

4.58 5.24 -12.7%

13.97 13.52 3.3%

12.40 12.58 -1.5%

2.03 2.06 -1.5%

2.04 2.08 -2.3%

5.28 5.94 -11.2%

5.16 5.86 -12.1%

14.17 13.99 1.2%

13.69 14.55 -5.9%

13.82 13.85 -0.2%

13.91 13.88 0.2%

2022

Q2

Q3

67.15 69.44 -3.3%

66.01 66.01 0.0%

65.91 68.20 -3.4%

64.53 64.53 0.0%

70.65 72.94 -3.1%

69.67 69.67 0.0%

2.95 3.00 -2.0%

2.89 2.90 -0.2%

3.16 3.23 -2.0%

3.17 3.17 -0.1%

3.05 3.07 -0.7%

2.86 2.84 0.6%

3.82 3.53 8.2%

3.78 3.51 7.8%

14.57 14.72 -1.0%

18.63 18.53 0.5%

2.04 2.09 -2.3%

2.03 2.08 -2.1%

4.05 3.76 7.7%

3.97 3.69 7.6%

13.95 14.55 -4.1%

12.99 13.13 -1.1%

14.53 14.41 0.9%

14.51 14.35 1.1%

Q4

62.98 62.98 0.0%

61.47 61.47 0.0%

66.98 66.98 0.0%

2.74 2.74 0.0%

3.13 3.13 0.1%

2.87 2.86 0.3%

3.73 3.45 7.9%

11.68 11.46 1.9%

2.02 2.06 -2.0%

4.08 3.82 6.8%

12.52 12.53 0.0%

14.18 13.99 1.4%

2019

56.99 56.99 0.0%

59.36 59.36 0.0%

64.34 64.34 0.0%

2.60 2.60 0.0%

3.06 3.06 0.0%

3.00 3.00 0.0%

2.57 2.57 0.0%

10.46 10.46 0.0%

2.02 2.02 0.0%

2.88 2.88 0.0%

12.73 12.73 0.0%

13.01 13.01 0.0%

Year 2020 2021

39.17 39.17 0.0%

67.87 69.02 -1.7%

39.73 39.73 0.0%

67.44 68.66 -1.8%

41.69 41.69 0.0%

70.60 71.59 -1.4%

2.18 2.18 0.0%

3.00 3.00 0.1%

2.56 2.56 0.0%

3.28 3.28 0.2%

2.44 2.44 0.0%

2.99 2.98 0.3%

2.03 2.03 0.0%

3.97 4.10 -3.2%

10.76 10.76 0.0%

12.36 12.20 1.3%

1.92 1.92 -0.2%

1.98 1.99 -0.6%

2.40 2.39 0.4%

4.94 5.12 -3.6%

9.15 9.15 0.0%

13.21 12.98 1.7%

13.16 13.20 -0.3%

13.69 13.68 0.1%

Growth Rate 2022 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022

66.42 68.28 -2.7%

-31.3% -31.3%

65.02 66.83 -2.7%

-33.1% -33.1%

70.05 71.91 -2.6%

-35.2% -35.2%

2.88 2.91 -1.1%

-16.1% -16.1%

3.19 3.23 -1.3%

-16.4% -16.4%

3.09 3.10 -0.3%

-18.5% -18.5%

73.3% 76.2%

69.8% 72.8%

69.3% 71.7%

37.6% 37.4%

28.4% 28.2%

22.4% 22.1%

-2.1% -1.1%

-3.6% -2.7%

-0.8% 0.4%

-4.3% -3.1%

-2.9% -1.4%

3.3% 3.9%

3.98 3.93 1.1%

-20.7% -20.7%

12.93 12.95 -0.2%

2.9% 2.9%

95.1% 101.5%

14.9% 13.3%

0.1% -4.1%

4.6% 6.2%

2.03 2.08 -2.2%

-5.0% -4.8%

4.27 4.20 1.7%

-16.8% -17.1%

13.26 13.67 -3.0%

-28.1% -28.1%

14.29 14.17 0.9%

1.1% 1.4%

3.0% 3.5%

105.9% 114.4%

44.3% 41.9%

4.1% 3.7%

2.9% 4.5%

-13.5% -18.1%

0.4% 5.3%

4.4% 3.6%

STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

Current Forecast: December 7, 2021; Previous Forecast: November 9, 2021

2020

2021

2022

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production (million barrels per day)

OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Production

Current

32.88 29.10 29.78 30.49 30.08 30.75 31.10 32.23 32.32 32.41 32.63

Previous

33.05 29.27 29.95 30.66 30.18 30.88 31.15 32.22 32.54 32.65 32.93

Percent Change

-0.5% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.4% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% -0.6% -0.7% -0.9%

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Production

Current

33.49 30.71 28.64 29.99 30.36 30.76 32.21 33.15 33.78 33.90 33.95

Previous

33.50 30.72 28.65 30.00 30.36 30.76 32.23 33.32 33.70 33.84 34.01

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.5% 0.3% 0.2% -0.2%

Non-OPEC Production

Current

66.90 61.25 62.02 62.39 62.23 63.78 64.34 65.62 65.79 66.83 67.61

Previous

67.24 61.58 62.36 62.74 62.44 64.01 64.58 66.08 66.21 67.25 68.09

Percent Change

-0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.7% -0.6% -0.6% -0.7%

Total World Production

Current

100.39 91.96 90.66 92.38 92.59 94.54 96.55 98.77 99.58 100.73 101.56

Previous

100.74 92.30 91.01 92.74 92.80 94.78 96.82 99.40 99.90 101.09 102.10

Percent Change

-0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.6% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5%

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)

OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Consumption

Current

45.44 37.42 42.24 42.79 42.27 43.94 45.43 45.91 45.34 45.17 46.16

Previous

45.50 37.45 42.27 42.84 42.30 43.94 45.40 45.85 45.31 44.95 46.01

Percent Change

-0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3%

Non-OECD Consumption

Current

49.50 47.51 50.50 51.79 51.72 52.13 52.48 53.72 53.95 54.90 55.00

Previous

50.33 47.44 51.21 52.59 52.39 52.75 53.20 54.25 54.52 55.48 55.58

Percent Change

-1.6% 0.1% -1.4% -1.5% -1.3% -1.2% -1.3% -1.0% -1.1% -1.0% -1.1%

China Consumption

Current

13.89 14.08 14.65 15.11 15.26 15.47 14.98 15.46 15.84 16.00 15.71

Previous

13.89 14.08 14.65 15.11 15.30 15.51 15.02 15.49 15.81 15.98 15.69

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%

Total World Consumption

Current

94.94 84.93 92.74 94.59 93.98 96.07 97.91 99.63 99.29 100.06 101.15

Previous

95.83 84.90 93.47 95.43 94.68 96.69 98.59 100.10 99.83 100.43 101.59

Percent Change

-0.9% 0.0% -0.8% -0.9% -0.7% -0.6% -0.7% -0.5% -0.5% -0.4% -0.4%

Closing Stocks (million barrels)

OECD Commercial Inventory

Current

2,970 3,206 3,168 3,025 2,911 2,868 2,786 2,745 2,772 2,841 2,858

Previous

2,970 3,206 3,168 3,025 2,914 2,873 2,782 2,751 2,760 2,822 2,841

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% -0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%

OPEC Surplus Production Capacity and World Macroeconomic

OPEC Surplus Crude OIl Production Capacity (million barrels per day)

Current

3.15

5.98

7.92

7.68

8.20

8.07

6.74

5.81

5.27

5.16

5.13

Previous

3.15

5.98

7.92

7.68

8.20

8.07

6.74

5.65

5.42

5.18

5.14

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% -2.8% -0.4% -0.2%

World GDP Growth (annualized percent change)

Current

-1.40 -8.81 -2.40 -0.57

3.24 11.41 4.72

4.05

4.63

4.82

4.82

Previous

-1.32 -8.69 -2.46 -0.67

3.16 11.28 4.74

4.11

4.58

4.82

4.88

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook ()

Q4

2019

33.16 33.44 -0.8%

31.49 31.63 -0.4%

33.98 34.05 -0.2%

34.66 34.67 0.0%

67.85 68.48 -0.9%

65.71 65.98 -0.4%

101.84 102.53 -0.7%

100.38 100.65 -0.3%

46.20 45.97 0.5%

47.72 47.79 -0.1%

55.09 55.67 -1.0%

52.54 53.28 -1.4%

15.98 15.96 0.1%

14.01 14.46 -3.1%

101.29 101.64 -0.3%

100.26 101.07 -0.8%

2,857 2,851 0.2%

2,879 2,879 0.0%

5.10 5.11 -0.2%

2.52 2.52 0.0%

4.45

2.83

4.49

2.83

Year 2020 2021

30.56 30.73 -0.6%

31.05 31.11 -0.2%

30.70 30.71 0.0%

31.63 31.68 -0.2%

63.14 63.48 -0.5%

64.00 64.29 -0.4%

93.84 94.19 -0.4%

95.63 95.97 -0.4%

41.98 42.02 -0.1%

44.40 44.38 0.0%

49.84 50.40 -1.1%

52.52 53.15 -1.2%

14.43 14.43 0.0%

15.29 15.33 -0.3%

91.81 92.42 -0.7%

96.91 97.53 -0.6%

3,025 3,025 0.0%

2,745 2,751 -0.2%

6.19 6.19 0.0%

7.20 7.16 0.6%

-3.28 5.86 -3.28 5.82

2022

Growth Rate 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022

32.63 32.89 -0.8%

-3.0% -2.9%

33.90 33.90 0.0%

-11.4% -11.4%

67.03 67.52 -0.7%

-3.9% -3.8%

100.93 101.42 -0.5%

-6.5% -6.4%

1.6% 1.2%

3.0% 3.2%

1.4% 1.3%

1.9% 1.9%

5.1% 5.7%

7.2% 7.0%

4.7% 5.0%

5.5% 5.7%

45.72 45.56 0.3%

-12.0% -12.1%

54.74 55.32 -1.1%

-5.1% -5.4%

15.88 15.86 0.2%

3.0% -0.2%

100.46 100.88 -0.4%

-8.4% -8.6%

5.8% 5.6%

5.4% 5.5%

5.9% 6.2%

5.6% 5.5%

3.0% 2.7%

4.2% 4.1%

3.9% 3.4%

3.7% 3.4%

2,857 2,851 0.2%

5.1% 5.1%

-9.2% -9.1%

4.1% 3.6%

5.16 5.21 -0.9%

146.0% 146.0%

4.68 4.69

16.3% 15.6%

-28.2% -27.2%

STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels

Current Forecast: December 7, 2021; Previous Forecast: November 9, 2021

2020

2021

2022

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

U.S. Supply (million barrels per day)

U.S. Crude Oil Production

Current

12.81 10.67 10.79 10.87 10.69 11.28 11.11 11.63 11.67 11.72 11.91

Previous

12.81 10.67 10.79 10.87 10.69 11.28 11.07 11.47 11.69 11.77 11.97

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% -0.1% -0.4% -0.5%

U.S. Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production

Current

5.17

4.96

5.34

5.22

4.86

5.46

5.52

5.67

5.67

5.81

5.91

Previous

5.17

4.96

5.34

5.22

4.86

5.46

5.51

5.59

5.67

5.81

5.94

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5%

U.S. Ethanol Production

Current

1.02

0.70

0.92

0.97

0.90

0.99

0.96

1.04

0.97

1.01

1.02

Previous

1.02

0.70

0.92

0.97

0.90

0.99

0.96

1.01

0.97

1.00

1.02

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%

U.S. Total Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuel Net Imports

Current

-0.97 0.11 -0.83 -0.84 -0.07 -0.16 0.35 -0.16 -0.21 0.83 0.47

Previous

-0.97 0.11 -0.83 -0.84 -0.07 -0.16 0.25 -0.12 -0.04 0.79 0.31

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.8% 37.7% 473.8% 4.7% 53.2%

U.S. Consumption (million barrels per day)

U.S. Gasoline

Current

8.51

7.12

8.51

8.06

8.00

9.07

9.13

8.94

8.40

9.28

9.41

Previous

8.51

7.12

8.51

8.06

8.00

9.07

9.17

8.88

8.40

9.23

9.41

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% -0.1%

U.S. Distillate

Current

4.02

3.49

3.70

3.94

3.97

3.93

3.87

4.09

4.14

4.04

3.98

Previous

4.02

3.49

3.70

3.94

3.97

3.93

3.85

4.01

4.14

4.01

3.97

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3%

U.S. Jet Fuel

Current

1.56

0.69

0.97

1.09

1.13

1.34

1.52

1.53

1.44

1.59

1.71

Previous

1.56

0.69

0.97

1.09

1.13

1.34

1.52

1.51

1.46

1.57

1.70

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 1.3% -1.4% 1.4% 0.4%

U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids

Current

3.37

2.85

3.01

3.68

3.40

3.33

3.31

3.60

3.81

3.31

3.36

Previous

3.37

2.85

3.01

3.68

3.40

3.33

3.23

3.59

3.77

3.26

3.32

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1%

U.S. Total Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels

Current

19.50 16.07 18.45 18.72 18.45 20.03 20.21 20.35 19.79 20.43 20.86

Previous

19.50 16.07 18.45 18.72 18.45 20.03 20.14 20.07 19.75 20.27 20.81

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3%

U.S. Closing Stocks (million barrels)

U.S. Crude Oil

Current

483.3 532.7 497.7 485.5 501.9 448.0 420.4 426.2 457.0 461.7 438.5

Previous

483.3 532.7 497.7 485.5 501.9 448.0 420.9 431.8 461.0 464.5 440.4

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -1.3% -0.9% -0.6% -0.4%

U.S. Total Gasoline

Current

261.8 254.5 227.6 243.4 237.6 237.2 227.0 229.6 240.6 246.2 233.8

Previous

261.8 254.5 227.6 243.4 237.6 237.2 225.1 231.9 241.4 246.5 233.9

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% -1.0% -0.3% -0.1% 0.0%

U.S. Distillate Fuel Oil

Current

126.8 176.9 172.5 161.2 145.5 140.1 131.7 131.4 122.7 128.4 136.1

Previous

126.8 176.9 172.5 161.2 145.5 140.1 129.3 136.0 125.6 130.6 137.8

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% -3.4% -2.4% -1.7% -1.3%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook ()

Q4

12.09 12.16 -0.5%

5.98 6.01 -0.5%

1.02 1.01 1.2%

-0.28 -0.51 -46.0%

8.96 8.85 1.3%

4.15 4.14 0.2%

1.68 1.68 0.3%

3.88 3.87 0.3%

20.80 20.65 0.7%

441.0 442.6 -0.4%

248.5 248.8 -0.1%

137.4 139.1 -1.2%

2019

12.29 12.29 0.0%

4.82 4.82 0.0%

1.03 1.03 0.0%

0.67 0.67 0.0%

9.31 9.31 0.0%

4.10 4.10 0.0%

1.74 1.74 0.0%

3.14 3.14 0.0%

20.54 20.54 0.0%

432.8 432.8 0.0%

254.1 254.1 0.0%

140.1 140.1 0.0%

Year 2020 2021

Growth Rate 2022 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022

11.28 11.28 0.0%

11.18 11.13 0.5%

11.85 11.90 -0.4%

-8.2% -8.2%

-0.9% -1.3%

6.0% 6.9%

5.17 5.17 0.0%

5.38 5.36 0.4%

5.84 5.86 -0.3%

7.3% 7.3%

4.0% 3.5%

8.6% 9.3%

0.91 0.91 0.0%

0.97 0.97 0.5%

1.01 1.00 0.6%

-11.9% -11.9%

7.3% 6.7%

3.5% 3.4%

-0.63 -0.63 0.0%

-0.01 -0.03 -55.9%

0.20 0.14 48.6%

-194.8% -194.8%

-98.2% -95.9%

-1877.2% -627.5%

8.05 8.05 0.0%

8.79 8.78 0.1%

9.01 8.97 0.5%

-13.5% -13.5%

3.79 3.79 0.0%

3.97 3.94 0.7%

4.08 4.07 0.3%

-7.7% -7.7%

1.08 1.08 0.0%

1.38 1.38 0.3%

1.61 1.60 0.2%

-38.3% -38.3%

3.23 3.23 0.0%

3.41 3.39 0.6%

3.59 3.55 1.0%

2.8% 2.8%

18.19 18.19 0.0%

19.77 19.68 0.5%

20.47 20.37 0.5%

-11.5% -11.5%

9.2% 9.1%

4.7% 4.1%

28.5% 28.0%

5.6% 5.0%

8.7% 8.2%

2.6% 2.2%

2.8% 3.2%

16.2% 16.3%

5.2% 4.9%

3.6% 3.6%

485.5 485.5 0.0%

426.2 431.8 -1.3%

441.0 442.6 -0.4%

12.2% 12.2%

243.4 243.4 0.0%

229.6 231.9 -1.0%

248.5 248.8 -0.1%

-4.2% -4.2%

161.2 161.2 0.0%

131.4 136.0 -3.4%

137.4 139.1 -1.2%

15.1% 15.1%

-12.2% -11.1%

-5.7% -4.7%

-18.5% -15.6%

3.5% 2.5%

8.2% 7.3%

4.5% 2.3%

STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Natural Gas

Current Forecast: December 7, 2021; Previous Forecast: November 9, 2021

2020

2021

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

U.S. Supply (billion cubic feet per day)

U.S. Total Marketed Production

Current

103.02 96.83 97.29 98.53 97.65 101.12 101.99

Previous

103.02 96.83 97.29 98.53 97.65 101.12 102.51

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5%

U.S. Federal GOM Marketed Production

Current

2.80

2.28

1.75

1.81

2.26

2.25

1.81

Previous

2.80

2.28

1.75

1.81

2.26

2.25

1.94

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.6%

U.S. Lower 48 ex GOM Marketed Production

Current

99.25 93.68 94.67 95.75 94.37 97.92 99.28

Previous

99.25 93.68 94.67 95.75 94.37 97.92 99.70

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.4%

U.S. Pipeline Gross Imports

Current

7.6

6.1

6.4

7.3

8.7

6.8

7.2

Previous

7.6

6.1

6.4

7.3

8.7

6.8

7.1

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%

U.S. LNG Gross Imports

Current

0.24

0.12

0.09

0.09

0.15

0.02

0.03

Previous

0.24

0.12

0.09

0.09

0.15

0.02

0.05

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -31.9%

U.S. Gross Exports

Current

16.07 12.69 12.00 16.99 17.59 18.48 18.09

Previous

16.07 12.69 12.00 16.99 17.59 18.48 18.24

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.9%

U.S. Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)

U.S. Residential

Current

22.95 8.25

3.84 16.10 25.67 7.50

3.62

Previous

22.95 8.25

3.84 16.10 25.67 7.51

3.46

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 4.5%

U.S. Commercial

Current

14.04 5.85

4.39 10.40 14.87 6.24

4.68

Previous

14.04 5.85

4.39 10.40 14.87 6.24

4.69

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.4%

U.S. Industrial

Current

24.31 20.32 20.92 23.53 23.81 21.47 21.12

Previous

24.31 20.32 20.92 23.53 23.81 21.49 21.26

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% -0.7%

U.S. Electric Power Sector

Current

30.00 29.16 39.50 28.28 26.75 29.17 37.93

Previous

29.55 29.05 40.10 28.19 26.65 29.14 37.86

Percent Change

1.5% 0.4% -1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2%

U.S. Total Consumption

Current

99.89 70.83 76.16 86.21 99.39 71.94 75.05

Previous

99.44 70.72 76.76 86.12 99.29 71.94 75.01

Percent Change

0.5% 0.2% -0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

U.S. Working Gas in Storage (billion cubic feet)

Current

2,029 3,133 3,840 3,341 1,801 2,583 3,305

Previous

2,029 3,133 3,840 3,341 1,801 2,583 3,303

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

U.S. Balancing Item (billion cubic feet per day) (Consumption - Supply)

Current

-0.09 -0.18 -0.80 -0.84 0.16 -0.62 -0.43

Previous

-0.55 -0.29 -0.20 -0.93 0.06 -0.63 -0.74

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook ()

Q4

103.72 102.98 0.7%

2.32 2.31 0.3%

100.50 99.76 0.7%

6.9 6.8 1.2%

0.20 0.20 0.0%

19.36 19.63 -1.4%

15.98 16.38 -2.5%

10.64 11.01 -3.3%

24.01 23.94 0.3%

28.79 26.63 8.1%

87.67 86.11 1.8%

2,962 2,925 1.3%

0.47 -0.48

Q1

103.32 103.49 -0.2%

2.33 2.33 0.0%

100.07 100.25 -0.2%

7.3 7.3 0.0%

0.32 0.32 0.0%

20.15 20.28 -0.7%

24.42 24.56 -0.6%

14.58 14.62 -0.3%

24.78 24.32 1.9%

25.11 24.72 1.6%

97.47 96.77 0.7%

1,659 1,623 2.2%

0.09 -0.65

2022

Q2

Q3

103.46 104.13 -0.6%

104.27 105.34 -1.0%

2.26 2.25 0.7%

2.16 2.14 1.3%

100.42 101.11 -0.7%

101.37 102.47 -1.1%

6.3 6.4 -0.2%

6.4 6.4 0.0%

0.18 0.18 0.0%

0.18 0.18 0.0%

19.76 19.82 -0.3%

20.85 20.88 -0.2%

7.77 7.83 -0.8%

3.85 3.84 0.4%

6.64 6.66 -0.2%

5.23 5.16 1.4%

22.51 22.33 0.8%

21.64 21.55 0.4%

26.64 27.16 -1.9%

36.42 36.91 -1.3%

71.25 71.69 -0.6%

74.99 75.37 -0.5%

2,588 2,563 1.0%

3,311 3,297 0.4%

-0.84 0.87 -0.87 0.38

Q4

105.48 106.49 -1.0%

2.14 2.10 1.8%

102.47 103.51 -1.0%

6.7 6.7 0.0%

0.20 0.20 0.0%

21.34 21.36 -0.1%

17.41 17.43 -0.1%

11.53 11.81 -2.4%

24.56 24.46 0.4%

26.98 26.44 2.0%

88.88 88.57 0.3%

2,862 2,856 0.2%

1.04 -0.14

2019

99.85 99.85 0.0%

2.78 2.78 0.0%

96.17 96.17 0.0%

7.4 7.4 0.0%

0.14 0.14 0.0%

12.76 12.76 0.0%

13.75 13.75 0.0%

9.63 9.63 0.0%

23.06 23.06 0.0%

30.93 30.93 0.0%

85.29 85.29 0.0%

3,188 3,188 0.0%

-1.12 -1.13

Year 2020 2021

Growth Rate 2022 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022

98.91 98.91 0.0%

101.14 101.09 0.1%

104.14 104.87 -0.7%

-0.9% -0.9%

2.16 2.16 0.0%

2.16 2.19 -1.4%

2.22 2.20 0.9%

-22.5% -22.5%

95.83 95.83 0.0%

98.04 97.96 0.1%

101.09 101.84 -0.7%

-0.4% -0.4%

6.8 6.8 0.0%

7.4 7.3 0.8%

6.7 6.7 0.0%

-7.2% -7.2%

0.13 0.13 0.0%

0.10 0.10 -3.7%

0.22 0.22 0.0%

-7.2% -7.2%

14.44 14.44 0.0%

18.38 18.49 -0.6%

20.53 20.59 -0.3%

13.1% 13.1%

2.3% 2.2%

0.2% 1.6%

2.3% 2.2%

8.2% 7.4%

-26.0% -23.1%

27.3% 28.1%

3.0% 3.7%

2.8% 0.4%

3.1% 4.0%

-9.5% -8.7%

119.1% 110.9%

11.7% 11.3%

12.77 12.77 0.0%

13.14 13.20 -0.5%

13.32 13.37 -0.4%

-7.1% -7.1%

8.66 8.66 0.0%

9.08 9.18 -1.1%

9.47 9.54 -0.7%

-10.0% -10.0%

22.27 22.27 0.0%

22.60 22.62 -0.1%

23.37 23.16 0.9%

-3.4% -3.4%

31.75 31.74 0.0%

30.69 30.09 2.0%

28.81 28.83 -0.1%

2.7% 2.6%

83.26 83.25 0.0%

83.46 83.03 0.5%

83.10 83.06 0.1%

-2.4% -2.4%

3,341 3,341 0.0%

2,962 2,925 1.3%

2,862 2,856 0.2%

4.8% 4.8%

-0.48 -0.49

-0.11 -0.45

0.30 -0.32

2.9% 3.4%

4.8% 6.0%

1.5% 1.6%

-3.3% -5.2%

0.2% -0.3%

-11.3% -12.5%

1.4% 1.3%

4.3% 3.9%

3.4% 2.4%

-6.1% -4.2%

-0.4% 0.0%

-3.4% -2.4%

STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Electricity

Current Forecast: December 7, 2021; Previous Forecast: November 9, 2021

2020

2021

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

U.S. Electricity Generation, Electric Power Sector (billion kilowatthours)

U.S. Total Generation

Current

930

899 1,101 921

954

948 1,126

Previous

925

896 1,109 923

952

948 1,123

Percent Change

0.5% 0.3% -0.6% -0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%

U.S. Coal

Current

170

151

248

198

230

204

281

Previous

170

151

248

199

230

204

281

Percent Change

0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

U.S. Natural gas

Current

362

346

469

343

321

346

454

Previous

355

343

474

341

318

345

453

Percent Change

2.1% 0.9% -1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2%

U.S. Petroleum

Current

4.0

3.9

4.4

4.1

5.2

3.5

4.7

Previous

4.0

3.9

4.5

4.0

5.2

3.5

4.6

Percent Change

-0.7% -0.4% -2.1% 0.4% -1.7% 0.0% 3.6%

U.S. Nuclear

Current

204

191

204

191

198

187

203

Previous

204

191

204

191

198

185

203

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.7% -0.3%

U.S. Conventional Hydroelectric

Current

74

81

68

61

69

66

61

Previous

75

81

71

63

69

67

61

Percent Change

-1.5% -0.6% -3.1% -3.2% -0.9% -2.2% 0.1%

U.S. Other Renewables

Current

113

125

107

122

129

141

122

Previous

115

125

106

124

129

141

120

Percent Change

-1.5% 0.2% 0.7% -1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 2.1%

U.S. Electricity Sales (billion kilowatthours)

U.S. Residential

Current

341

335

454

335

379

328

446

Previous

340

334

453

334

379

328

445

Percent Change

0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

U.S. Commercial

Current

317

295

363

312

304

321

377

Previous

314

293

360

309

305

322

376

Percent Change

1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% -0.1% 0.0% 0.4%

U.S. Industrial

Current

240

226

252

241

229

247

264

Previous

231

216

242

231

229

247

263

Percent Change

4.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.7%

U.S. Total

Current

900

857 1,071 889

913

898 1,089

Previous

887

844 1,057 876

914

898 1,085

Percent Change

1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5% -0.1% 0.0% 0.4%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook ()

Q4

951 938 1.4%

200 214 -6.8%

351 325 8.0%

4.0 3.8 6.8%

191 191 -0.1%

61 57 6.4%

143 145 -1.2%

339 338 0.4%

321 317 1.4%

253 243 4.1%

915 899 1.8%

Q1

933 938 -0.5%

207 218 -4.9%

302 298 1.3%

4.5 4.5 0.0%

194 195 -0.9%

70 68 4.2%

154 153 0.7%

360 360 -0.1%

310 309 0.2%

237 238 -0.1%

909 908 0.0%

2022

Q2

Q3

955 957 -0.2%

1,120 1,118 0.2%

199 195 2.2%

269 263 2.3%

318 325 -2.3%

437 446 -1.8%

3.7 3.7 -1.1%

4.4 4.3 0.9%

190 191 -0.5%

204 205 -0.4%

79 78 0.9%

65 64 2.2%

163 162 0.9%

139 136 2.4%

326 325 0.1%

435 434 0.2%

328 326 0.5%

379 376 1.0%

253 253 0.0%

270 268 0.8%

908 906 0.2%

1,086 1,079 0.6%

Q4

962 951 1.2%

217 210 3.2%

331 326 1.5%

3.8 3.6 6.8%

192 193 -0.4%

59 58 1.8%

157 158 -0.6%

343 343 0.2%

325 319 1.9%

257 247 4.1%

927 910 1.8%

2019

3,966 3,966 0.0%

959 959 0.0%

1,477 1,477 0.0%

17.2 17.2 0.0%

809 809 0.0%

287 287 0.0%

410 410 0.0%

1,440 1,440 0.0%

1,361 1,361 0.0%

1,002 1,002 0.0%

3,811 3,811 0.0%

Year 2020 2021

2022

Growth Rate 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022

3,852 3,853 0.0%

3,980 3,960 0.5%

3,970 3,963 0.2%

-2.9% -2.9%

768 768 -0.1%

914 929 -1.6%

892 886 0.7%

-19.9% -19.9%

1,520 1,512 0.5%

1,471 1,441 2.0%

1,388 1,395 -0.5%

2.9% 2.4%

16.3 16.5 -0.7%

17.5 17.1 2.0%

16.4 16.2 1.5%

-5.1% -4.4%

790 790 0.0%

779 778 0.1%

780 784 -0.5%

-2.4% -2.4%

284 290 -2.0%

256 255 0.6%

274 268 2.2%

-0.9% 1.1%

468 471 -0.6%

537 535 0.3%

613 608 0.8%

14.1% 14.8%

3.3% 2.8%

19.1% 20.9%

-3.2% -4.7%

7.0% 4.2%

-1.4% -1.5%

-9.8% -12.2%

14.7% 13.6%

-0.2% 0.1%

-2.4% -4.6%

-5.6% -3.2%

-6.0% -5.5%

0.2% 0.8%

6.8% 5.1%

14.3% 13.8%

1,465 1,462 0.2%

1,492 1,490 0.1%

1,464 1,462 0.1%

1,287 1,276 0.9%

1,324 1,319 0.4%

1,342 1,331 0.9%

959 920 4.3%

992.44 981 1.2%

1,017 1,005 1.2%

3,718 3,664 1.5%

3,815 3,797 0.5%

3,830 3,804 0.7%

1.7% 1.5%

-5.4% -6.3%

-4.3% -8.3%

-2.5% -3.9%

1.9% 1.9%

2.9% 3.4%

3.5% 6.7%

2.6% 3.6%

-1.9% -1.9%

1.4% 0.9%

2.5% 2.4%

0.4% 0.2%

STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Coal and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Current Forecast: December 7, 2021; Previous Forecast: November 9, 2021

2020

2021

2022

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

U.S. Coal (million short tons)

U.S. Production

Current

149.2 116.2 135.9 134.1 140.3 142.7 153.3 146.6 153.5 149.3 159.6

Previous

149.2 116.2 135.9 134.1 140.3 142.7 153.3 145.6 153.6 145.4 157.4

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 2.7% 1.4%

U.S. Exports

Current

20.0

14.8

15.3

19.1

20.7

22.1

20.7

21.2

26.4

18.2

19.3

Previous

20.0

14.8

15.3

19.1

20.7

22.1

22.5

23.7

27.1

18.3

19.1

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -8.0% -10.6% -2.6% -0.4% 0.7%

U.S. Imports

Current

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.1

Previous

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.1

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -13.0% -25.7% -12.9% -5.2% -1.7%

U.S. Electric Power Demand

Current

98.0

87.1 139.0 111.7 127.9 113.8 157.0 110.9 114.0 110.5 150.8

Previous

97.9

87.2 139.3 112.1 128.1 113.8 156.3 118.5 119.7 107.9 146.9

Percent Change

0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.5% -6.4% -4.8% 2.4% 2.6%

U.S. Secondary Stocks

Current

150.7 155.8 134.3 138.1 115.8 115.6 86.2

88.1

89.9

99.4

79.7

Previous

150.6 155.7 134.2 137.5 116.1 115.9 88.1

82.8

78.9

87.6

70.4

Percent Change

0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -2.1% 6.4% 14.0% 13.5% 13.2%

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Petroleum

Current

558.0 441.3 520.1 523.1 517.3 558.8 568.9 569.8 551.9 573.0 588.0

Previous

558.0 441.3 520.1 523.1 517.3 558.8 568.5 567.3 551.9 569.4 586.3

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3%

Coal

Current

201.5 177.4 271.3 224.9 255.2 227.7 319.1 225.8 231.5 222.7 295.1

Previous

201.5 177.4 271.3 224.9 255.2 227.7 312.4 237.2 242.9 219.0 287.8

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% -4.8% -4.7% 1.7% 2.6%

Natural Gas

Current

489.8 347.5 381.2 428.1 483.9 353.2 365.2 435.4 474.5 349.9 373.3

Previous

489.8 347.5 381.2 428.1 483.8 353.1 365.4 428.3 471.7 351.9 374.2

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 1.7% 0.6% -0.6% -0.3%

Total Fossil Fuel

Current

1249.3 966.2 1172.6 1176.1 1256.4 1139.7 1253.1 1231.0 1257.9 1145.6 1256.5

Previous

1249.3 966.2 1172.6 1176.1 1256.3 1139.6 1246.3 1232.8 1266.5 1140.3 1248.3

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% -0.1% -0.7% 0.5% 0.7%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook ()

Q4

158.2 154.9 2.1%

25.4 25.2 0.8%

1.1 1.1 -0.7%

120.5 116.2 3.7%

77.8 70.2 10.8%

582.3 578.2 0.7%

244.0 234.8 3.9%

441.5 440.5 0.2%

1267.8 1253.6 1.1%

2019

706 706 0.0%

93.8 93.8 0.0%

6.7 6.7 0.0%

539 539 0.0%

134.0 134.0 0.0%

2,372 2,372 0.0%

1077.5 1077.5 0.0%

1684.0 1684.0 0.0%

5,133 5,133 0.0%

Year 2020 2021

535 535 0.0%

583 582 0.2%

69.1 69.1 0.0%

84.8 89.1 -4.9%

5.1 5.1 0.0%

4.6 5.0 -9.1%

436 437 -0.2%

510 517 -1.4%

138.1 137.5 0.4%

88.1 82.8 6.4%

2,042 2,042 0.0%

2,215 2,212 0.1%

875.0 875.0 0.0%

1027.7 1032.5 -0.5%

1646.7 1646.7 0.0%

1637.7 1630.6 0.4%

4,564 4,564 0.0%

4,880 4,875 0.1%

2022

621 611 1.5%

89.2 89.7 -0.5%

3.9 4.0 -4.7%

496 491 1.0%

77.8 70.2 10.8%

2,295 2,286 0.4%

993.4 984.5 0.9%

1639.1 1638.4 0.0%

4,928 4,909 0.4%

Growth Rate 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022

-24.2% -24.2%

8.9% 8.7%

6.5% 5.1%

-26.3% -26.3%

22.8% 29.0%

5.3% 0.6%

-23.9% -23.9%

-10.1% -1.0%

-15.9% -19.9%

-19.1% -19.0%

16.9% 18.4%

-2.7% -5.0%

3.0% 2.6%

-36.2% -39.8%

-11.7% -15.2%

-13.9% -13.9%

8.4% 8.3%

3.6% 3.3%

-18.8% -18.8%

17.5% 18.0%

-3.3% -4.7%

-2.2% -2.2%

-0.5% -1.0%

0.1% 0.5%

-11.1% -11.1%

6.9% 6.8%

1.0% 0.7%

STEO Current/Previous Forecast Comparisons: U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption and Capacity

Current Forecast: December 7, 2021; Previous Forecast: November 9, 2021

2020

2021

2022

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption, All Sectors (quadrillion btu)

U.S. Wind Power

Current

0.787 0.803 0.627 0.852 0.883 0.875 0.699 1.002 1.049 0.982 0.759 1.063

Previous

0.796 0.793 0.615 0.862 0.877 0.867 0.683 1.008 1.041 0.970 0.746 1.071

Percent Change

-1.0% 1.3% 2.0% -1.1% 0.6% 0.9% 2.3% -0.6%

0.8%

1.2% 1.8% -0.7%

U.S. Wood Biomass

Current

0.532 0.517 0.519 0.533 0.520 0.523 0.538 0.540 0.529 0.524 0.551 0.547

Previous

0.532 0.517 0.519 0.533 0.520 0.523 0.536 0.532 0.524 0.520 0.542 0.537

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.5%

0.9%

0.9% 1.7% 1.9%

U.S. Solar Power

Current

0.238 0.374 0.377 0.257 0.292 0.467 0.452 0.316 0.377 0.590 0.589 0.394

Previous

0.238 0.374 0.377 0.257 0.292 0.467 0.461 0.328 0.380 0.596 0.584 0.403

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.8% -3.5% -0.9% -0.9% 1.0% -2.3%

U.S. Ethanol

Current

0.268 0.231 0.277 0.269 0.253 0.293 0.298 0.296 0.266 0.299 0.303 0.296

Previous

0.268 0.231 0.277 0.269 0.253 0.293 0.297 0.293 0.265 0.297 0.303 0.293

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0%

0.0%

0.6% -0.1% 1.3%

U.S. Biodiesel

Current

0.062 0.067 0.073 0.074 0.056 0.070 0.062 0.069 0.071 0.079 0.086 0.091

Previous

0.062 0.067 0.073 0.074 0.056 0.070 0.061 0.071 0.072 0.075 0.080 0.088

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% -3.1% -1.1% 5.6% 6.2% 3.6%

U.S. Renewable Electric Power Sector Generation Capacity (MW)

Wind Power

Current

106,055 107,549 109,076 118,045 120,930 124,472 126,426 135,275 136,465 138,404 138,404 142,410

Previous

106,055 107,549 109,076 118,045 120,930 124,472 126,735 135,042 136,197 137,896 138,606 141,903

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% 0.2%

0.2%

0.4% -0.1% 0.4%

Wood Biomass

Current

2,480 2,480 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,362 2,362 2,362 2,362 2,362 2,362 2,362

Previous

2,480 2,480 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,362 2,362 2,362 2,362 2,362 2,362 2,362

Percent Change

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Solar Power

Current

38,887 40,985 42,786 47,413 50,293 52,267 55,281 63,653 66,731 70,845 74,004 84,566

Previous

39,067 41,160 42,961 47,586 50,256 52,222 55,880 63,333 65,718 69,665 72,133 81,531

Percent Change

-0.5% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% 0.1% 0.1% -1.1% 0.5%

1.5%

1.7% 2.6% 3.7%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook ()

2019

2.691 2.691 0.0%

2.236 2.236 0.0%

1.017 1.017 0.0%

1.200 1.200 0.0%

0.265 0.265 0.0%

103,462 103,462

0.0%

2,778 2,778 0.0%

37,038 37,038 0.0%

Year 2020 2021

3.069 3.065 0.1%

3.458 3.435 0.7%

2.101 2.101 0.0%

2.121 2.111 0.4%

1.246 1.246 0.0%

1.528 1.547 -1.3%

1.045 1.045 0.0%

1.141 1.138 0.3%

0.276 0.276 0.0%

0.258 0.258 -0.2%

118,045 135,275 118,045 135,042

0.0% 0.2%

2,505 2,505 0.0%

2,362 2,362 0.0%

47,413 47,586 -0.4%

63,653 63,333 0.5%

2022

3.852 3.828 0.6%

2.151 2.123 1.4%

1.950 1.962 -0.6%

1.164 1.158 0.5%

0.327 0.315 3.7%

142,410 141,903

0.4%

2,362 2,362 0.0%

84,566 81,531 3.7%

Growth Rate 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022

14.1% 13.9%

12.7% 12.1%

11.4% 11.4%

-6.0% -6.0%

0.9% 0.5%

1.4% 0.5%

22.5% 22.5%

22.6% 24.2%

27.6% 26.8%

-12.9% -12.9%

9.2% 8.9%

2.0% 1.8%

4.0% 4.0%

-6.8% -6.6%

26.8% 22.1%

14.1% 14.1%

14.6% 14.4%

5.3% 5.1%

-9.8% -9.8%

-5.7% -5.7%

0.0% 0.0%

28.0% 28.5%

34.3% 33.1%

32.9% 28.7%

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