Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.

January 12, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Bulls & Bears Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 AAII Sentiment Bull & Bears

1 2 3 4 5 6-10

January 12, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bulls & Bears

Figure 1.

6

6

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

5

Ratio

Ratio

5

Bull/Bear

Dec 28

1.95

4

Ratio*

Jan 4

2.15

Jan 11

1.90

4

3

3

2

1/11 2

1

1

0

0

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

80

80

75

Percentage

Bulls Bears

75

70

Bulls

Dec 28

46.4

23.8

Jan 4

50.6

23.5

70

65

Bears

Jan 11

43.7

23.0

65

60

60

55

55

50

50

45

1/11 45

40

40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

50

50

45

Percentage

Correction

Correction

Dec 28

29.8

40

Jan 4

25.9

Jan 11

33.3

35

30

45 40 35 1/11 30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10



5

5

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Page 1 / January 12, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

Figure 2.

5200

4700 4200

3700

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)

3200

2700

2200

1700

1200

700



5200 1/11 4700

4200 3700 3200 2700 2200

1700

1200

700

200

200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.

41600 36600 31600 26600

21600

Figure 3.

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE* (ratio scale)

16600

11600

41600 1/11 36600

31600 26600 21600

16600

11600

6600

6600



1600

1600

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Page 2 / January 12, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

Figure 4.

5200

4700 4200

3700

S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

3200

(ratio scale)

2700

2200

1700

1200

700



5200 1/11 4700

4200 3700 3200 2700 2200

1700

1200

700

200

200

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's and Investors Intelligence.

41600 36600 31600 26600

21600

Figure 5.

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS* (ratio scale)

16600

11600

41600 1/11 36600

31600 26600 21600

16600

11600

6600

6600



1600

1600

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Page 3 / January 12, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

Figure 6.

40

S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA vs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*

20

0

40

20 1/11

0



-20

-20

-40

-40

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Figure 7.

40

40

S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMA vs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

20

20

1/11

0

0



-20

-20

-40

-40

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 4 / January 12, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



AAII Sentiment

Figure 8.

100

100

AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio* (49.6)

75

75

50

1/5

50

25

25

0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

5

5

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio (1.0)

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1/5

1

0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

80

80

Latest Readings

70

Bulls (32.8)

Bulls Bears 70

Bears (33.3)

Dec 29

37.7

30.5

Jan 5

32.8

33.3

60

60

50

50

40

40

1/5

30

30

20

20

10

10



0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears. Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

Page 5 / January 12, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Bull & Bears

Figure 9.

5.5

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

5.0

Bull/Bear Ratio

(4-week average)

4.5

Consumer Confidence

4.0

Expectations Index

3.5

140 120 100 Dec

3.0 80

2.5

2.0

1/11

60

1.5

1.0

40

.5



.0

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.

Figure 10.

6

S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIO S&P 500 Forward P/E* (20.9)

5 Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (1.9)

4

3

2

1

30

25

1/7 20

15 1/11

10



0

5

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Investors Intelligence.

Page 6 / January 12, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download