2022 Election Report

2022 Election Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 11/11/2022

The 2022 elections proved that the best advice in politics is to ¡°expect the unexpected.¡± While the final results

have yet to be tallied, at least one thing is clear: America remains a closely divided country, and the 118th

Congress will reflect that reality.

The House is currently projected to shift to Republican control, albeit with a smaller than anticipated margin.

Votes continue to be counted in 29 House races. The Senate is up for grabs, with two races¡ªArizona and

Nevada¡ªstill not called. Since neither candidate received 50 percent of the vote, the Georgia race is headed to a

December run-off.

Here are some key takeaways from the Nov. 8 results:

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It was not a red wave, but there will be many new faces: Election results, combined with an

unprecedented number of retirements and resignations, will yield the largest congressional class since

2018. At time of publication, at least 71 new members of the House and seven new Senators will be

sworn in January.

House & Senate Leadership: If the Republican lead for control of the House holds, leadership elections

are scheduled for Nov. 16, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is the frontrunner to become Speaker. It¡¯s

unclear if Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will become minority leader or if someone else emerges. In the

Senate, Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are expected to remain as leaders,

regardless of the party in control.

Compromise is still necessary for legislative success: Getting a majority of Republican votes in the

House will be a challenge, given the diverse viewpoints within its caucus. This challenge is familiar to

Democrats, who faced similar dynamics from the progressive wing of their party in passing the

infrastructure bill. Ultimately, a handful of Republican votes helped ensure its passage.

Bipartisanship is a ¡°must¡± in the Senate: Action in the Senate will continue to require bipartisanship, as

neither party on its own will have close to the 60-vote majority necessary to break a filibuster.

Infrastructure law supporters re-elected: Many supporters of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs

Act (IIJA) will be returning. Six of 13 Republican supporters in the House were re-elected (five retired

and one passed away), and 13 of 17 Senators running for re-election won their races with four pending.

Biden still has veto power: Despite Republican majority in the House and possibly the Senate, any

legislation must still be signed into law by President Joe Biden.

Public Support for State & Local Transportation Funding is Strong: Nearly 88 percent of state and local

transportation funding ballot measures were approved and are expected to generate nearly $20 billion

in recurring and one-time revenue to support new transportation improvements.

The election outcomes do not change ARTBA¡¯s mission. Our focus in 2023 remains the continued

implementation of IIJA¡¯s investment levels and policy provisions. This effort will begin in January 2023 with an

initiative to educate the more than 75 new members of Congress about the economic and quality of life benefits

of federal transportation investments in their states/districts.

*This report will be updated regularly as more results are finalized.

? 2022 by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA). All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by

any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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2022 Election Report

U.S. Senate

49

46

2

4

Republicans

Democrats

Independent

Undecided

(caucus with Democrats)

(AK, AZ, GA, NV)

As in 2020, the fate of the Senate may not be known for days or weeks. Democrats, who currently have had the

majority by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote, managed to perform better than

anticipated in key races and picked up the seat of retiring Pat Toomey (R-Pa.).

The IIJA drew bipartisan support from all 50 Democrats and 19 Republicans. Of the bill¡¯s 69 supporters, 17 ran

for re-election and 13 were re-elected with four races yet to be called. Three Republican IIJA supporters retired

including: Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.).

Many Democrats in close races early this year joined a legislative effort to suspend the federal gas. Of the eight senators

who supported the measure, six were up for re-election. Three were re-elected and three results are pending.

The results of each Senate race are on page 6.

U.S. House of Representatives

210

195

29

Republicans

Democrats

Undecided

While the race for control of the House has not been officially called, it appears likely that Republicans will take

over, although with a much smaller margin than projected before the elections. As of Nov. 11, the GOP is

expected to have about a 10-seat majority, depending on the final outcomes of outstanding races. Historically,

the opposing party gains on average 27 seats in the midterm of a new president, highlighting the Republicans¡¯

underperformance this year.

Of the 13 House Republicans who supported the IIJA, six were on the ballot and all won re-election. With more

than 65 House members choosing to vacate their seats before Election Day and several others losing re-election

bids, the incoming class will consist of at least 71 new members.

A table on page 7 highlights members of Congress not returning, along with those who filled their seats, and any

new members filling seats created because of the decennial redistricting process.

? 2022 by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA). All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by

any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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2022 Election Report

Senate & House Committee Leadership Changes

The 118th Congress will see new leaders atop key committees, not just due to the shift in party control, but also

the result of retirements. A top legislative priority is enactment of the annual Fiscal Year 2023 transportation

appropriation bill, which will ensure the IIJA¡¯s highway and public transportation programs are fully funded.

Official committee leadership decisions take place in late November and December, but since a chair or ranking

member is typically determined by seniority, the following represents most likely scenarios:

Senate

Appropriations Committee: With the retirement of the top Republican and Democrat, the committee with

responsibility for funding the federal government will have new leaders:

Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.)

Susan Collins (R-Maine)

Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)

Patty Murray (D-Wash.)

Commerce Committee: With the scheduled 2023 reauthorization of federal aviation programs, including the

Airport Improvement Program (AIP), the Commerce committee will have a new top Republican.

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.)

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.)

Environment and Public Works Committee: Tom Carper (D-Del.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) are likely

to retain the top spots with the chair and ranking member determined by the party controlling the chamber.

House

Appropriations Committee: The Republican and Democratic leaders will return, but will switch roles, pending

takeover by Republicans.

Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas)

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.)

Appropriations Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing & Urban Development:

Rep. David Price (D-N.C.) retiring

To be determined

Transportation & Infrastructure Committee: Chairman Peter DeFazio will retire at the end of this year, leaving

an opening for the top Democrat on the committee.

Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.)

¨CRep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) retiring

To be determined

Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.) and Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) to vie for the top spot.

? 2022 by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA). All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by

any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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2022 Election Report

State Elections

Governors Races

Most states will experience stability in the governor¡¯s mansion, with 32 of 36 races this cycle remaining under

the same party¡¯s control. Democrats picked up Maryland and Massachusetts, while races in Arizona and Nevada

are still too close to call. See page 10 for a complete list of results.

Governors who supported gas tax suspensions in 2022 were re-elected in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia and New

York. Illinois and Colorado re-elected governors who delayed planned gas tax increases, and Tennessee¡¯s

governor, who suspended the state registration fee, was re-elected.

State Legislatures

Democrats picked up trifectas in Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan and Minnesota, meaning they control the

House, Senate and governor¡¯s mansion. This is in addition to controlloing the executive and legislative branches

in 14 states going into the midterms. Republicans have not yet gained a trifecta this cycle, but currently hold 23

across the country. The remaining states operate with divided governments.

State & Local Transportation Ballot Initiatives

Voters in 18 states approved 88 percent of 380 state and local ballot initiatives that are expected to generate

almost $20 billion in one-time and recurring revenue for transportation improvement projects. The results of 23

measures are pending..

The approval rate was higher than the historical average tracked by ARTBA¡¯s Transportation Investment

Advocacy Center (ARTBA-TIAC). Since 2010, voters in 44 states have approved an average 85 percent of nearly

3,000 state and local ballot measures, raising an estimated $342 billion in new and renewed revenue.

The revenue generated by the Nov. 8 results will help local governments compete for IIJA-related discretionary

grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation.

ARTBA TIAC¡¯s ballot report is available at .

? 2022 by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA). All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by

any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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2022 Election Report

What¡¯s Next for Transportation

Congress will return in mid-November for a ¡°lame duck¡± session. Organizational meetings, new member

orientation and leadership elections will help prepare the more than 70 new members before they are sworn in

on Jan. 3. Additional year-end legislative business will also be on the agenda.

Funding for federal highway and public transportation programs are operating under a continuing resolution at

FY 2022 levels through Dec. 16. ARTBA¡¯s top legislative priorities in coming weeks is to work with both parties to

complete the FY 2023 transportation appropriations process and secure full funding for year two of the IIJA.

Both the House and Senate proposed spending bills fully fund the IIJA and include supplemental surface

transportation investment. Congress must either negotiate a compromise between each chamber¡¯s proposal or

pass another continuing resolution into 2023, which would require the new Congress to start over.

Funding

Once Republicans officially assume control of the House, it will result in a majority who did not vote for the IIJA

or were not in office when it was passed, which could create some uncertainty around FY 2023 funding levels.

However, regardless of who controls the Senate, it will still have a majority of IIJA supporters. This, combined

with an ever-looming presidential veto threat, indicates funding levels are as stable as the congressional

environment allows. Nevertheless, it is imperative that ARTBA and the transportation construction industry

continue to proactively highlight the value of these investments in every community to help preserve their

continuity.

Oversight

As IIJA implementation continues, both the House and Senate will utilize their respective oversight

responsibilities to ensure administrative action matches congressional intent. With a Republican majority in

either chamber, expect greater focus on ensuring IIJA¡¯s environmental and project delivery reforms are put in

place, and increased scrutiny of the Biden administration¡¯s distribution of the law¡¯s discretionary grant

programs.

Please contact Lauren Schapker, ARTBA¡¯s vice president of legislative affairs, at lschapker@, with

questions about this report.

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? 2022 by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association (ARTBA). All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by

any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of ARTBA.

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