NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

AD-A245 740

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

Monterey, California

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THESIS..

PREDICTING HIGH QUALITY AFQT

WITH YOUTH ATITUDE TRACKING STUDY DATA

by

Jackie Lynn Rickman

December, 1991 Thesis Co-Advisors:

George W. Thomas Linda Gorman

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

92-02877

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6a NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School

6c ADDRESS (City, State, andZIP Code) Monterey, CA 93943-5000

6b OFFICE SYMBOL (f applicable) 55

7a NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School

7b. ADDRESS (City, State, andZIP Code) Monterey, CA 93943-5000

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11 TITLE (Include Security Classification) PREDICTING HIIGHl QUALITY AFQT WITH YOUTH ATTITUDE TRACKING SURVEY DATA (UNCLASSIFIED)

12 PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Jack L. Rickman

13a TYPE OF REPORT Master's Thesis

13b TIME COVERED

From

To

14 DATE OF REPORT (year,month, day) December, 1991

15 PAGE COUNT

72

16 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION

The views expressed in this thesis are those ofthe author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of'Def'ense or the U.S.

Government.

17 COSATI CODES

18 SUBJECT TERMS (continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)

FIELD

GROUP

SUBGROUP

AFQT

ASVAB YATS NL.SY

MANPOWER

REGRESSION

HIGH QUALITY

MILITARY MANPOWER

19. ABSTRACT (continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)

This thesis demonstrates that Youth Attitude Tracking Study (YATS) data can be used to create a synthetic AFQT classification procedure for distinguishing high quality respondents. Unlike previous methods, the procedure does not rely on interest in the military to predict AFQT category. The estimates are based on an analysis of the YATS data matched with the Defense Manpower Data Center cohort data tile using a binomial logistic regression model. The market segment analyzed is 17 to 21 year old males who are either high school graduates or prospective graduates. The dependent variable is whether or not a respondent would score above the fiftieth percentile on the Armed Forces Qualification Test. The explanatory variables reflect individual demographic, educational and labor market characteristics at the time of YATS interview. The YATS time frame is restricted to 1983 through 1985 in order to facilitate future bridging of YATS models with models estimated with similar time period data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth) NISY ). Additionally, the models may be used to provide estimates olAFQT quality for more recent YATS respondents.

20 DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT

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22a NAME OF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL

George W Thomas

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83 APR edition may be used u1til exhausted All other editions are obsolete

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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

PREDICTING HIGH QUALITY AFQT WITH

YOUTH ATTITUDE TRACKING STUDY DATA

by

Jackie Lynn Rickman Major, United States Marine Corps B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1979

Submitted in partial fulfillment

of the requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANPOWER MANAGEMENT

from the

Author:

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December, 191

. Jack L. Rickman

Approved by:

George W. Thomas, Thesis Co-Advisor

Linda Gorman, Thesis Co-Advisor

David R.Whipple,Cha Department of Admini strati eSinces

ABSTRACT

This thesis demonstrates that Youth Attitude Tracking Study

(YATS) data can be used to create a synthetic AFQT classification

procedure for distinguishing high quality respondents. Unlike

previous methods, the procedure does not rely on interest in the

military to predict AFQT category. The estimates are based on an

analysis of the YATS data matched with the Defense Manpower Data

Center cohort data file using a binomial logistic regression model.

The market segment analyzed is 17 to 21 year old males who are

either high school graduates or prospective high school graduates.

The dependent variable is whether or not a respondent would score

above the fiftieth percentile on the Armed Forces Qualification

Test. The explanatory variables reflect individual demographic,

educational and labor market characteristics at the time of YATS

interview. The YATS time frame is restricted to 1983 through 1985

in order to facilitate future bridging of YATS models with models

estimated with similar time period data from the National

Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). Additionally, the models may

be used to provide estimates of AFQT quality for more recent YATS

respondents.

/ .. .

Aooession For

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DTIC TAB Unnrunnunced

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND .......

............

1

II. LITERATURE REVIEW .......

................

11

III. DATA AND METHODOLOGY ..............

16

A. SAMPLE DESCRIPTION ..............

16

B. SAMPLE REDUCTION ...............

19

C. DEPENDENT VARIABLE ..............

24

D. METHODOLOGY ........

..................

25

E. EXPLANATORY VARIABLES .....

.............

27

1. Demographic Explanatory Variables .....

30

2. Education Explanatory Variables ......

30

3. Labor Market Status Explanatory Variables

32

4. Descriptive Statistics ....

...........

32

F. DATA AND METHODOLOGY SUMMARY ...

.........

35

IV. ANALYSIS ..........

.....................

37

A. GENERAL .........

....................

37

B. LOGIT REGRESSION ......

...............

37

1. MODELS .......

.................. .

38

2. ANALYSIS OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES

...

39

iv

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