Japanese Security Policy



　　　

　　　　　　　　　　　Japanese Security Policy

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Kotaro　Ochiai

　Introduction

　The　threat of North Korea has dramatically changed Japan’s security policy.

Taepodong Missiles and the abduction by North Korea fluently has taught us how

serious the threat is. After the 9・11 terror in 2001, Washington requested Tokyo

more cooperation especially with the security arrangements between the two countries.

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These two factors, put the Japanese government to pass the laws of some security

actions that has been debated for a long time, maintaining Japan’s defense oriented

defense policy.

North Korea(PRK)

In 1998, North Korea launched a Taepo Dong Missile over the mainland of Japan.

Until that moment, the Japanese people didn’t realize the threat of North Korea.

In a sense it is ironical that the Taepo Dong Missile,whose target was the US, awakened

the Japanese, instead of the Nodong Missile that covers all over Japan, which was

launched in 1994.

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In 1999, the Japanese government ordered Maritime SDF (Self Defense Forces) to

chase two North Korean spy ships for the first time. In 2001 a North Korean spy ship

had been sank and was caught by the Japanese Coast Guard.

Prime Minister Koizumi visited North Korea in September 2002 and Kim Jong Il

admitted the fact that thirteen Japanese were abducted in 1970’s ,which North Korea

had been denying till then. Hearing this news the Japanese were so astonished and

angry. Although the five abducted Japanese who were said to be alive were returned to

Japan, their families are still held inside North Korea and moreover much more

Japanese are believed to be abducted and living in North Korea．Pyongyang says the

remaining the eight abducted Japanese died from traffic accidents and flood.

They also insist no more Japanese are held . Tokyo believes nearly 100 were abducted

and most of them are alive. Pyongyang is now insisting the five Japanese were

returned to Japan temporarily and should be sent back and because Tokyo has

broken this agreement between the two countries, there is nothing to be done.

To cope with the North Korean threat, the law which allows the government to restrict

citizens’ rights in case of emergencies was established. In 2003 ,Japan launched its

first intelligence satellites. MD(Missile Defense) program started with 1 billion dollar

budget．In 2007 MD(PAC-3 :Patriot Advanced Cabability-3 and Sea-based Missiles)

will be deployed .

The law that enables the government to stop money transfer to North Korea was

established. The second sanctions law that prohibits North Korean ships from entering

Japanese ports is now under discussion in the national diet. But in effect Tokyo didn’t

stop the money transfer and the new sanctions law is regarded as a bargaining chip

as well.The families of abducted Japanese claim that only exercises of sanctions can

add pressure to Pyongyang. They say stopping shipments of luxurious goods is a smart

sanctions that does not damage ordinary North Koreans. One year has passed since

the five abducted Japanese were returned but their families are still in North Korea

and talks between the two countries are in stalemate. Frustrations and support for

sanctions are growing in Japan.

With the emergence of the Taepo Dong Missile , a debate on whether or not to attack

enemy’s bases has started.Let’s presume there is a hard evidence that Taepodong is

going to be launched against Japan, should Tokyo just wait and see ? There are

growing opinions that in such a situation SDF should attack the North Korean missile

launchers and offensive weapons should be introduced.

　　　US

In 2001, soon after the 9.11 terror, Anti Terrorism Special Measures Law was

established . 9.11 terror killed 24 Japanese but it didn’t change our perception of threat

so much. Rather than that, Japan is accelerating cooperation with the US to cope with

the threat of North Korea. SDF(Self Defense Forces) is now operating in the Indian

Ocean and the Middle East to support the War on Terror. But Japanese know these

measures are intended to secure the credibility of the Japan-US alliance.

The Bush Administration’s hawkish stance is putting Japan’s security policy forward.

In the years of the Clinton Administration “Japan Passing” which means “ Japan is no

longer important to the US in favor of China ” was often mentioned.

Now ,the Koizumi Administration does almost everything the Bush Administration

requests and a new phrase “Japan Surpassing” is emerging in Washington. It

would be a nightmare for Prime Minister Koizumi if Kerry would becomes the next

president. Traditionally Tokyo prefers Republican administrations to Democrats.

The Japanese still remember the fact that Clinton bypassed to China to stay

for a week skipping Tokyo and Seoul.

Generally speaking Japan is a good partner for the US except the point Japan

will not exercise its collective rights of self-defense. Japan pays 4 billion dollar as a

Host Nation Support to the US forces. 40000 American personnel are stationed in Japan

but most of them are marines ,airforce ,and navy. In contrast to the US forces in Korea

whose mission is defending Korea, the US forces in Japan are to operate outside

Japan such as in Korea Taiwan, and the Middle East.

　　　SDF(Self Defense Forces) operations in Iraq

The Japanese government still remembers the Gulf Crisis and war in 1990-91.

Japan paid 13 billion dollar to support the war but the US didn’t appreciate

this “checkbook diplomacy”. So as to the Iraqi War , “Show the flag” is the catch phrase

in Tokyo.

　At first ,the majority of the Japanese were against the Iraq War and SDF’

deployment to Iraq.Prime Minister Koizumi says Iraqi War is to stop the development

of WMD. Opposition parties are against Iraqi War and deployment of SDF.

The Iraqis are misunderstanding That SDF will be giving them jobs and

infrastructures. This gap between perception and reality is making them disappointing

The SDF’ base has been attacked a few times though nobody was injured.

There are three byproducts born from the Iraqi operations. First, theIraqi operations

are giving joy and pride to the SDF. As in Japan ,SDF is unhappily operating like

digging holes and filling them. Second, Japanese citizens don’t have the chances to see

SDF’ operations in Japan. But the Iraqi Operations showed them how wonderful

SDF is. Third ,the Iraqi Operations is also giving a good training opportunity to the

SDF .

As it still remains its Cold War style force structure, having 240000

personnel, the operations in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean are making

SDF difficult to exercise its domestic tasks though only 1700 personnel were sent.

It is reported some of SDF members dispatced to the Middle East left notes that say

if he died during his duty, he wants to be buried in the Yasukuni Shrine. And if happens,

this would be a nightmare scenario to the Japanese government,because in this

case Prime Minister Koizumi would have to go to the Yasukuni Shrine which

will invite criticism from Seoul and Beijing.

It is criticized that supporting the Bush administration doesn’t mean securing the

Japan-US alliance. Though the Japanese government says the relationship between

Japan and US is now the best in the history but it seems that the Koizumi

　

Administration is just fulfilling what the Bush Administration is asking for and

that Japan’s presence in the world and in Washington isn’t so significant.

US government explicitly demands Japan to exercise the collective rights of self-

defense. According to the present interpretation shown by the Japanese government, if

North Korea launches the Nodong Missile against the US , Japan will not intercept

it because Japan can not exercise the collective rights of self-defense and this is

making the US government very angry .US had been surprisingly generous about this

issue. But last these few years, Washington is beginning to ask Japan to change

its interpretation.

Restructuring and reduction of US bases in Okinawa is necessary. Okinawa

Prefecture, although it consists of several small islands near Taiwan, 75% of US

bases are located.

In Iraq ,SDF is supplying water for Iraqi citizens and not engaging in military

operations. To comply the limitations of the Constituion , SDF is operating in so-called

“noncombatant areas” that is difficult to explain from where to where. And SDF

members are admitted to shoot only in case of self defense．They can’t defend Dutch

soldiers unless SDF is attacked because Japan can’t exercise the collective rights of

self-defense though the Dutch are kindly guarding SDF.

Japan has to depend on the US power ,but on the other hand Japan,

especially SDF wants independence. That is why SDF is maintaining domestic arms

production lines and producing the most expensive weapons in the world. To

secure Japan’s military independence, except for Maritime SDF , data-link with US

forces is not realized.

In the long run Japan must solve this ambivalence. Realists suggest further

integration with the US as Japan can’t defend itself and Japan has already passed the

point of no return and so there is no other options. They say further integration

will increase the credibility and deterrant power of the alliance.Opponents insist

Japan should secure its independence and leave some freedom of choices.

A Policy debate on attacking enemy’s bases and exporting arms has started. Japan

has been denying these actios for decades but some hawks(Japanese neoconservatives)

are advocating revisions. Arms export will decrease its costs and gives Japan

political power. Arms made in Japan are sometimes the most expensive in the

world.For example, F2 fighter deployed in 2001 ,which made the US afraid that

might become the in the world, turned out to be not good as expected though

it is much more expensive than F16 .

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Though the above mentioned policy changes are important、Japan still

maintains its traditional and unique defense oriented policy．In 2003 American

neoconservatives advocated Japan’ｓnuclear armament but almost no Japanese

supported it. SDF has no aircraft carriers, marines, and offensive missiles. Japan’s

military expenditure ranks somewhere between No.2 and No.5 in the world,but it is

just 1% against its GDP.

　　　COJ(Constitution of Japan)

　The Article 9 of the Constitution　of Japan is so unique. It says “ Aspiring sincerely to

an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce

war as a sovereign right of nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling

international disputes. In order to accomplish the aim of preceding paragraph,land,sea,

and airforces,as well as war potential,will never be maintained. The right of

belligerency of the state will not be recognized.COJ renounces war and possession of

military power．So the gap between Japan’s declaration policy and substance is

significant. Such a gap reduces the transparency of its security policy.

Conservative are unsatisfied with the fact that COJ was drafted by the Americans

in 1940’s. They also say every country has the right of self-defense and military

power. Conservatives used to say the COJ needs to be revised because it was written by

the US but now they say it is to be revised from needs to cooperate with the US.

Liberals remember how cruel the World War Ⅱ was and so support the spirits of

the COJ. Although it is the most essential issue, unfortunately public opinion is divided

on the security policy.

Revision of the COJ has been a debate among the Japanese and finally the national

diet has started a concrete discussion. After 57 years , the debate in the national diet is

not whether or not the COJ should be revised but how should the Article 9 be

revised. Within a decade the COJ may be revised.

Revision of the COJ is just like the Pandora’s box. Japan’s defense oriented policy

will be maintained．Revisionists are only declaring we have the

right of self-defense and can exercise the collective rights of self-defense.They say

revision does’t mean Japan will become a military power but a “normal state”.On

the other hand nobody knows how Asian countries will react and Japan will respond.

But at least,revision of the COJ might clear the ambiguity of Japan’s security

policy .Anyway Japan must explain that revision doesn’t mean militarization and start

of military build up race. More urgent is the rights of collective self-defense

issue. Government says Japan has the rights but can’t exercise them. Again the public

opinion is divided but the majority of the national diet members support the exercise.

of he rights.

China

China’s nuclear tests and threat of force against Taiwan in 1990’s made Japanese

support the Japan-US alliance that China is agains, much more. Beijing has lost

respects and favors that Japanese had for them. Tokyo is trying to persuade that

developments of the Japan-US alliance, MD, and SDF’ overseas operations will not

threat China. As to North Korea, abduction of Japanese is one of the most

important issues and Tokyo is asking Beijing to pressure Pyongyang but

China is not so positive. As there is a gap between the two countries.

In these years China’s nationalism is often stimulated by Japan. Territorial disputes

on Senkaku Islands started in 1971 just after the UN the announcement of

the existence of oil reserves.

Prime Minister Koizumi promised to visit the Yasukuni Shrine to thank Japanese

soldiers who died during the World War Ⅱ but China is strongly against it because

war criminals who are believed to have ordered genocide in China also sleep there.

To China, if the prime minister of Japan visits the Yasukuni Shrine ,it means

Japan wants to justify the war and deny their responsibility to it. In fact, the

Shrine states that Japan started the war as self defense. Tokyo proposed an idea

to construct a new national and non- religious cemetery to replace Yasukuni

which is religiuos and not national. But conservatives are strongly against it.

Prime Minister Koizumi is eager to keep the promise. Due to frustrations of Beijing ,

Koizumi is not able to visit China for years.

As to the China-Taiwan conflict, Japanese wants a peaceful resolution. If China-

Taiwan War breaks out, Japan will probably be involved in US-China War.This year,

The Japanese de facto ambassador asked Taiwan not to claim its independence from

China.

　　Russia

The　Cold　War is over and Russia is no more Japan’s potential enemy. Japan’s urgent

interest in the relationship with Russia is the territorial dispute on the Northern

Islands. Though more than ten years have passed since the end of the Cold War and the

Soviet Union, no significant progress has been made on this dispute. There is no good

prospect. Rather than having a progressing on this dispute, now Japan wants Russia

to pressure North Korea on abduction of Japanese issue and WMD.

Korea(ROK)

As to the security cooperation with Korea ,Japan believes it must start with Korea’s

proposal and for that the rights of collective self-defense will be an obstacle. When

President No was elected Tokyo was anxious for his pro North and anti US stance.

Japan wants Seoul pressure Pyongyang to cooperate on WMD and the abduction issue.

Though Takeshima(Dokuto) is sometimes reported as a territorial dispute ,it isn’t

known as well as Senkaku Islands(China) and Northern Islands(Russia).

MD（Missile　Defense）

To enhance the credibility of the Japan-US alliance to cope with the threat from

North Korea, Japan started MD program with 1 billion dollars budget last year.

But there are four objections to MD in Japan. First, MD technology is still in the

developping stage and its workability is uncertain. Second ,MD costs too much. It is

estimated that Japan must pay 8 billion dollars. Japan’s military expenditure is

somewhere between No.2 and No.5 in the world but 8 billion dollars is as mush as the

annual expense of front line(platforms).Some critics say Japan is treated as a

cash dispenser to share America’s burden. SDF once introduced 100 P3Cs to

complement the US strategy to cope with Soviet submarines and P3Cs are in vain now.

Third, introduction of MD system requires further integration of SDF and US forces .

Japan would lose more military independence .Fourth, MD may provoke overreactions

of China and North Korea. Though its workability is uncertain but MD may make

North Korea believe a peaceful resolution of WMD issue is better. Although it costs

much, to show Japan’s will, MD might be a good instrument.

To develop the MD system with the US it is unavoidable to export military parts to it.

In 1967, Tokyo announced the Non Arms Export Principle . In 1983, the Principle was

partially revised and Japan started exporting arms related technology to US as

an exception. Koizumi Administration has made up his mind to export MD related

parts. A fundamental policy change is advocated to export arms to Asia and

Europe as well．But such a drastic change is not supported by the majority of the

administration．If Japan starts arms export like US and China, it will make Asian

countries anxious and weaken Japan’s voice on arms reductions .

Nuclear Armament

In 1995 ,the Japan Defense Agency made a report saying nuclear armament is not a

good idea. It will damage the NPT regime and Japan-US alliance. It also might invite

Korean nuclear armament and China’s military build up. This is the typical

dilemma in security. As the only country who experienced nuclear bombs in Hiroshima

and Nagasaki ,90% of the Japanese are against nuclear armament . Japan is such

a small island .Though it costs too much, nuclear arament doesn’t guarantee

the security of Japan. To rely on the nuclear umbrella of the US is the best.

Japan ratified NPT and is promoting nuclear disarmament. Japan maintains Non

Nuclear Three Principles ,which is no possesions, no productions, and no

introductions of nuclear weapons. These principles are kept though US ships sometimes

transit Japanese ports with nuclear weapons. Nuclear　armament will be possible

only when the following conditions are met. The credibility of the Japan-US alliance is

lost and nuclear threat from China or/ and Korea becomes serious.

How should SDF be reformed ?

The three SDF ,Ground, Air, and Maritime must be integrated. Japan’s Joint Chiefs of

Staffs will have own staffs in 2006 . Like other countries ,there are confrontations

among the three . Ground SDF is adhering the Cold War type scenario when a foreign

country like the Soviet Union invades Japan and 1000 tanks are necessary.

Substantial civilian control must also be realized. At present, SDF is controlled by

bureaucrats instead of by ministers and the national diet. SDF must change from Cold

War oriented to Post Cold War oriented. Especially anti terror measures must be

introduced. Soon after the 9.11 terror , “Should SDF defend US bases in Japan?” was

debated. Some old and influential politician stated SDF should not shoot Japanese

citizens and so finally the police guarded the bases.

Japanese neoconservatives

New generational politicians understand security better and are hawkish than the

older generation. They advocate revision of COJ, arms export, exercise of collective

rights of self-defense ,and the attacking of enemy’s bases. Older generations,who

experienced the WWⅡworry that these new generation are hawkish and insensitive

about the fears of Asian countries.

　

Intelligence as a taboo

After the WWⅡ, Intelligence has been a taboo in Japan. Japanese government avoids

the words such as military and intelligence from being used. Last year , the Public

Security Investigation Agency changed its English name to Public Security Intelligence

Agency without notice but nothing substantial has changed.

Power struggles among information agencies is as hard as CIA and FBI. PSIA,

Defense Agency，National Police Agency, Cabinet,and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

collect and analyze informations but none of them engage in human intelligence.

And there is no one in conrtol of operations of these institutions. In 2003 Japan

launched its first information gathering satellites but as most analysts are

gathered from private companies, their experience and knowledge will not be

accumlated.

The amount of the information budget is unknown but it is estimated to be only 1%

against US. It is often said Japan should become a “normal state”. Japan does’t have

a general antispy law. Only SDF members are punished when leaking designated

secrets. But the highest punishment for it is five years imprisonment ,which is as long

as smuggling fake brand bags.

Is Japan a military power?

SDF has the best weapons in Asia such as 200 F15 fighters, 100 P3C，AEGIS,and

AWACS. Its military expenditure ranks somewhere between No.2 and No.5 in the

world .SDF’ overaseas operations are increasing.

Though Japan’s military expenditure ranks No.1 or No.2 in Asia，40% is

personnel expenses. Then front line(platforms) expenses shares just 10% in

spite of the fact that Japanese weapons are the most expensive in the world. SDF has

240000 personnel that is much less than Russia, China, North,and South Korea. The

number of Japan’s military expenditure doesn’t present its substantial military power.

Besides SDF lacks in power projection capability such as aircraft carriers , marines,

bombers, and offensive missiles. Helicopter carriers are to be deployed within a few

years. But still Japan’s defense oriented defense will be maintained. The Japan Defense

Agency publishes White Paper(The Defense of Japan) every year and shows its

strategy and force structures which only a few countries such as the US do.

Though the way is not good, SDF is strictly controlled and Japan is far from the

military power. .An American general once frankly said “The Japan-US Secutity

Treaty is the cap of the　bottle that prevents Japan’s militarization”.

　　　Prospects

What happens if SDF member is killed in Iraq? Both Spanish and Italian

reactions are possible. But Prime Minister Koizumi says SDF will not withdraw

even if some of them dies. The public opinion is becoming favorable to the

SDF’ operations because they are doing well.

The　National　Defense　Program Outline shows basic policies concerning the

establishment, maintainance, and management of defense capabilities ,including the

nature of its capability and specific goals for its establishment. The former NDPO was

reviewed in 1995 to reflect the end of the Cold War. New NDPO will be established

before the end of this year. New NDPO is expected to stress the following three points.

First ,MD(Missile Defense) is introduced to cope with new threat by ballistic missiles.

Second to manage huge expenditure of MD without increasing the defense budget, main

platforms such as tanks and fighters are to be reduced. The Cold War is over and 12

years have passed since the collapse of the Soviet Union , the force structure of the SDF

is still Cold War oriented. SDF has 1000 tanks which don’t equip with even

sensors.Who can imagine of the situation that 1000 tanks are necessary? Besides,

these tanks are too heavy to run ordinary roads in Japan. Ground SDF(army)

adheres to such an old fashioned idea. Third ,SDF’ overseas operations is upgraded

to its primary missions.

A consensus is emerging in the national diet. There is not a much difference between

in the security between the leading party(Liberal Democratic party) and the largest

opposition party(Democratic Party) . On the other hand, the public opinion is still

divided on essential matters such as the Constitution and the collective

rights of self-defense. Such a division in the public opinion will limit drastic

developments of the security policy.

The Japan-US alliance is more stable than Korea-US alliance . As now almost no

Japanese says “ Yankee Go Home”. The US appreciates Japan’s contributions. But in

cases of Korean and Taiwanese crises ,Japan must prove it isn’t a paper ally by taking

risks to exercise the collective rights of self-defense .

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