KPMG's Pensions Accounting Survey 2019

KPMG's Pensions Accounting Survey 2019

An insight into market trends at 31 December 2018

May 2019 uk

2 KPMG's Pensions Accounting Survey 2019

Introduction

KPMG's Pensions Accounting Survey 2019 looks at trends in bestestimate assumptions based on 212 of KPMG's clients with UK Defined Benefit (DB) pension schemes reporting under IFRS, UK GAAP or US GAAP at 31 December 2018. Our data sample spans the whole market, including clients who are advised by all the leading consultancies. This enables us to provide a detailed insight into market-wide practice, helping to inform discussions that go beyond accounting.

2018 was a turbulent year for the UK economy: GDP growth was the slowest it's been since 2012, at just 1.4% over the year; the Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.75%, a level not seen since the financial crisis; UK equities showed negative returns over the year; and salaries outpaced inflation.The key driver behind this mixed economic activity was the continuing uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. This uncertainty has continued through to the first quarter of 2019, with the Bank of England forecasting that growth over 2019 will be the slowest since 2009, with a onein-four chance that the economy will slip into recession in the second half of 2019.

Our publication deadline only allowed us to track Brexit events long enough to know that the UK didn't leave the EU on the planned date of 29 March 2019. The political uncertainty meant that market conditions were volatile over March 2019, with AA corporate bond yields falling by 0.3% and long-term inflation expectations increasing by around 0.1% over the month. Real AA yields fell to -1.3% at 31 March 2019, a significant drop from -0.9% seen at 31 December 2018.

In an effort to return inflation toward its 2% target, the Bank of England increased its benchmark interest rate during 2018 for the second time in a decade to 0.75% (an increase of 0.25%). This increase had already been largely priced into the market, and so this did not result in marked volatility. Amid the continuing Brexit uncertainty, the Monetary Policy Committee has recently voted not to increase interest rates further over 2019.

Over 2018, corporate bond yields rallied slightly from the lows seen over the past few years, finishing 0.3% higher than at the start of the year. These higher yields would generally have resulted in a reduction in pension scheme liabilities relative to 2017.

However, asset returns were generally poor over 2018. UK equities yielded a negative annual return of -9% which is a significant deterioration compared to positive returns of 13% over 2017. For many schemes the fall in corporate bond yields will have more than offset poor asset returns, but some schemes may have seen a deterioration in balance sheet position, depending on the types of assets held and the level of hedging in place.

? 2019 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

KPMG's Pensions Accounting Survey 2019 3

Contents

Financial headlines

Median real or net AA discount rates (measured as the difference between the discount rate and RPI inflation) remained negative for the third consecutive year. However our analysis shows a shift from the downwards trend experienced in recent years, with the median net discount rate increasing by 0.4% from -0.8% in 2017 to -0.4% in 2018.

? The median discount rate assumption increased from 2.5% last year to 2.9% at 31 December 2018.

? The range of discount rate assumptions adopted has remained stable this year at 0.5%.

? However only 82% of companies surveyed had a discount rate assumption within 0.1% of the median, compared to 90% last year. This reflects the fact that although the yield curve has become flatter at very short durations, over medium to long durations the curve has become slightly more downward sloping.

? Long term inflation expectations have remained stable over the year with a median assumption of 3.3%.

? The range of RPI inflation assumptions adopted has decreased from 0.7% last year to 0.6% this year.

Demographic headlines

Life expectancy assumptions have continued to decrease for the fourth consecutive year.

? The median life expectancy assumption has fallen by 0.2 years for current pensioners, and 0.1 years for future pensioners.

? The Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau (CMIB) continually updates its research and produces annual updates of the CMI projection model. For the past few years, these updates have projected a slowing rate of future mortality improvements. With 76% of the companies surveyed adopting the latest CMI projections at the time (CMI 2017), this has resulted in assumed life expectancies falling. As expected, this trend has continued as evidenced by the recent publication of the CMI 2018 projection model, which we expect to be adopted by the majority of companies by 31 December 2019.

? Despite the significant transfer value activity seen in 2018, only 4% of companies surveyed have included an explicit assumption in their accounts around future transfer expectations, a small increase from the 3% seen last year.

01 Key headlines

Page 4

02 A look back over 2018

Page 8

03 A look ahead to 2019 and beyond

Page 12

04 Discount rate

Page 16

05 Inflation

Page 20

Looking ahead

The following key topical issues are likely to impact companies reporting in 2019: ? The changes to how the IAS 19 pension expense is calculated after the

occurrence of a special event. ? The proposed amendments to FRS 102 in respect of multi-employer schemes. ? The ongoing review of IFRIC 14 by the International Accounting Standards

Board (IASB) may lead to a further Exposure Draft sometime in 2019/20.

We explore these issues and more on pages 12 to 15.

06 GMP Equalisation

Page 26

07 Mortality

Page 30

? 2019 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

4 KPMG's Pensions Accounting Survey 2019

Key headlines Section

One

Financial assumptions

Real AA discount rates have increased from -0.8% last year to -0.4% this year.

Real yields have risen by 0.4% since the start of the year. ? The median discount rate at 31 December 2018 was 2.9%. This reflects

an increase of 0.4% compared to the median last year.

? The median RPI inflation rate at 31 December 2018 was 3.3%, in line with the median last year.

? The median CPI inflation assumption adjustment and inflation risk premium have remained unchanged from the previous year at 1.0% and 0.2% respectively.

Movement in Median Assumptions

Median Assumption (%)

7.0%

6.40%

6.0% 5.0%

5.30%

4.80% 5.10%

5.80%

5.40%

5.70%

4.80%

4.50%

4.0% 3.0%

3.30%

3.60% 3.50%

4.40%

3.60% 3.80%

3.10%

3.40%

3.30% 3.30% 3.30%

2.80% 2.80% 3.00%

3.00% 2.90%

3.00%

3.10% 3.10%

2.70% 2.50%

2.90%

2.0%

2.20% 2.30% 2.40% 2.10% 2.10% 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%

1.0%

0.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year ending 31 December

Discount Rate

RPI Inflation

CPI inflation

Source: KPMG analysis

? 2019 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

KPMG's Pensions Accounting Survey 2019 5

01 Key headlines

Demographic assumptions

Median assumed life expectancies have decreased by 0.2 years for current pensioners and by 0.1 years for future pensioners

The trend of falling life expectancies has continued. ? The trend of falling life expectancies seen over the past few years

has continued into 2018. This is largely due to the slowing rate of future mortality improvements projected by the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau (CMIB) over the past four years.

? With the publication of CMI 2018 in March 2019, we can now anticipate a `lost decade' of life expectancy improvements between 2009 and 2019.

Movement in the Life Expectancies

25

24.2 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.1

23.5 23.7

23.1 23.1

23

22.3

21.0

21.7 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.4 22.3

21 19.8

21.1

19.4 20.1

19

19.5

18.4

23.5 22.1

23.4 21.9

17

15 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year ending 31 December

Future Pensioner (currently aged 45) Source: KPMG analysis

Current Pensioner (currently aged 65)

? 2019 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

02 A look back over 2018

03 A look ahead to 2019 and beyond

04 Discount rate

05 Inflation

06 GMP Equalisation

07 Mortality

Median Life Exoectancy (years)

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