Memo - Politico

Memo

Date: February 21, 2016

From: Warren Tompkins & Jon Lerner

To: Conservative Solutions PAC Supporters

Re: The Harry Potter Analogy

The results in South Carolina were tremendously good for Marco Rubio. This morning,

the media speculation that Donald Trump is unstoppable, is flatly wrong. It misses a

central element of this year¡¯s Republican nominating contest.

Trump has earned the ¡°frontrunner¡± label. However, South Carolina actually made him

weaker, not stronger. Yes, you read that right. Here¡¯s why.

Fans of Harry Potter will understand the following analogy. [Note: we are not calling

Donald Trump evil. This is an analogy, not a direct comparison.]

In Harry Potter lore, Voldemort, the Dark Lord, had a secret to his strength. His secret

was his horcruxes. The horcruxes were objects that allowed Voldemort to maintain

immortality. As each horcrux was destroyed, Voldemort became increasingly vulnerable,

not increasingly strong. When all of the horcruxes were gone, Voldemort lost his one-onone battle with Harry Potter.

Donald Trump has a solid claim on one-third of the Republican vote. He has virtually no

claim on the other two-thirds. The data consistently and overwhelmingly shows Trump

with the highest unfavorables among the remaining candidates, and that he is the last

choice of more voters than any other Republican by far. That means Trump¡¯s support will

grow very little as the field continues to narrow. His 33% is formidable when the field is

large; it isn¡¯t when the field is small. Trump won a victory in South Carolina, but the

field shrank once again. Like Voldemort¡¯s horcruxes, the large candidate field shields

Trump from harm. At each step of the primary process, Trump is losing his shields, and

that is making him more vulnerable.

This phenomenon is unlike anything we¡¯ve seen before. In the years in which they won

the GOP nomination, when Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W.

Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney started racking up successive primary victories,

they faced no similar barriers because they were not disliked by very large numbers

within the party. Even if Trump continues to win on March 1, he will remain vulnerable

as the field continues to shrink.

Extending this analogy puts Marco Rubio in the role of Harry Potter.

The recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Rubio leading a one-on-one race with

Trump 57%-41%. It¡¯s not even close. This is consistent with virtually all other polling on

this question, and it follows the data that shows Trump is not the choice of a strong

majority of Republicans. As the field shrinks, Trump weakens and Rubio strengthens.

Trump looks strong this morning, but if you look deeper, his vulnerability is increasingly

exposed.

For the sake of Republican prospects in November, this is critical. The latest Fox News

poll shows Donald Trump losing to Hillary Clinton by 5 points, and Marco Rubio

defeating Hillary Clinton by 4 points. That¡¯s a 9-point swing that is the difference

between a conservative and a liberal president, and a conservative and a liberal Supreme

Court.

Conservative Solutions PAC will be active in nearly every state that votes in March,

adjusting our course as the contours and needs of the race change. Thank you for your

investment to date. Despite being attacked much more heavily than any other candidate,

Marco Rubio remains in a position to win. Your additional assistance is urgently needed.

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