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FORUM: Disarmament and International SecurityISSUE: Nagorno-Karabakh ConflictSTUDENT OFFICER: Asl? Büyüko?luPOSITION: Deputy PresidentLETTER FROM THE DEPUTY PRESIDENTI would like to welcome you all to TEDMUN’21 as the deputy president of the DISEC committee. I’m Asl? Büyüko?lu and I am a 10th Grader in Ar? Science High School. It’s my utmost pleasure to be a student officer among the Academic Team of TEDMUN’21 and be to be serving you. My passion for MUN emerged almost 1.5 year ago and as we live in a world of both innovation and conflict, I believe that it’s our substantial duty to fulfil the function of ourselves. Participating in MUNs made me realize how important it is to utterly understand and contribute to solutions over international problems, that’s why I love MUN. As till now, I have 8 delegate experiences and to add, this will be my very first chairing experience. To assure you, I have observed the chairing duties well that I will be serving you in the same way. Besides MUN, I do have quite an interest in architecture, making playlists, art, being an enthusiastic fan? ? and just to let you know I’m an INTJ.?Additionally, I’m more than excited to be your student officer in TEDMUN’21 and I’m sure that this conference will be a significant moment for both me, my president and you delegates. I will do everything in my power, in order to offer you a fun, remarkable and an unforgettable debate time. If you have any further inquiries please do not hesitate to reach me out via asli@ . Hoping to see each and one of you soon..INTRODUCTIONNagorno-Karabakh is a region that has caused a lot of fighting over the possession of the territory due to its value. The dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan is an excellent example of how a local conflict can serve as the manifestation of a larger power struggle between great powers, in this case for political and economic control over the Caucasus and the Caspian regions. The territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan began in 1988, when Nagorno-Karabakh passed a resolution to become a part of Armenia besides being legally under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan. Although, the conflict has its origins in the early 20th century, when the map of Soviet Union was being carved by Stalin. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s which later transformed into a minor conflict following the end of the war, later escalating into another full-scale war in 2020.? After more than 25 years of stability, the conflict escalated in 2020, lasting6 weeks. Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a ceasefire deal by Russia, on November 10, 2020. The conflict among the region continues to stay stable, as the ceasefire remains effectual.DEFINITION OF KEY TERMSNagorno-Karabakh: Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountain territory in the South Caucasus, particularly between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both countries have been fighting desperately for this region’s possession since the 1980s.Caucasus: The Caucasus, or known as Caucasia, is the area lying between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea and is mainly composed of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, and parts of Southern Russia.Republic of Artsakh: Artsakh, officially known as the Republic of Artsakh, is a breakaway state which is internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan, also is actively supported by Armenia, Artsakh controls part of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, including the capital of Stepanakert.Autonomous Oblast: Autonomous oblasts of the Soviet Union were administrative units created for a number of smaller nations, which were given autonomy within the fifteen republics of the Soviet Union.Bishkek Protocol: The Bishkek Protocol is a provisional ceasefire agreement, signed by the representatives of Armenia, the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Russia’s representative.OSCE Minsk Group: The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe was created in 1992, in the purpose of encouraging a peaceful, negotiated resolution to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The Minsk Group is headed by a co-chairmanship consisting of France, Russia and the United States.BACKGROUND INFORMATIONHistorical BackgroundThe 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War was derived from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, an ethnic and territorial dispute between landlocked Armenia and Caucasian Azerbaijan which initially originated in the early 20th century. The region had been previously occupied by renowned empires in history, including the Kingdom of Armenia, the Seljuk Empire, the Tatars and Mongols, the Persian Dynasties, and the Russian Empire. The region was formerly called Artsakh and adopted the name of Karabakh from Turkic nomads which migrated into the region.In order to fully understand the dispute, we must go back to the roots of the issue. Over the years, both Azerbaijan and Armenia proceeded to fight for the possession of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. To start with, we will go to the early 19th century.?During the first Russian revolution in February 1905, clashes between Armenians and Caucasian Tatars- which were residing in lands currently governed by Azerbaijan - commenced.?The Armenian-Azerbaijani War began after ethnic and religious tensions between both states grew uncontrollably. On July 4, 1921, the Central Committee of Russian Communist Party decided to integrate Nagorno-Karabakh into Armenia. The next day, after Joseph Stalin took power over the party, the region was integrated into the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR), even though 94 percent of the region was ethnic Armenians at that time. Stalin established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) in 1923, one year after the formation of the USSR. The Soviet Era has seen Karabakh Armenians facing various restrictions in their liberties. On the other side, Azeris living in the oblast experienced discrimination and economic marginalization from Kharabakhians.?As the Soviet Union began to dissolve, authorities from NKAO held an unofficial referendum on February 20, 1988. Based on the results, they appealed to both Armenia SSR and Azerbaijan SSR to authorize the attachment of Karabakh to Armenia. This caused the beginning of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, where clashes occurred near the town of Askeran.?First Nagorno-Karabakh WarAn official referendum took place in December 1991 to decide the fate of NKAO, even if most Azerbaijanis boycotted it out of anger. Even if the results fell in favour of Armenians, NKAO was not one of the 15 republics of the USSR eligible to vote.? The enclave’s parliament had voted in favour of uniting with Armenia. The demand to unify with Armenia, which began anew in 1988, began in a relatively peaceful manner. As the Soviet Union’s dissolution neared, the tensions gradually grew into an increasingly violent conflict between ethnic Armenians and ethnic Azerbaijanis.?Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 26, 1991, and the official independence of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, the war over Nagorno-Karabakh quickly escalated into a full-scale war.?The war took place in late 1980s to May 1994. The circumstances of the dissolution of the Soviet Union facilitated an Armenian separatist movement in Soviet Azerbaijan. The declaration of secession from Azerbaijan was the final result of a territorial conflict regarding the land. As Azerbaijan declared its independence from the Soviet Union and removed the powers held by the enclave's government, the Armenian majority voted to secede from Azerbaijan. In the process they proclaimed the unrecognized Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.??Full-scale fighting erupted in the late winter of 1992. The newly formed Russian Federation started to illegally supply weapons to Armenia, while the nation received mercenaries from other countries in the CIS region. On the other hand, Azerbaijan recruited various Islamic mujahideen from Afghanistan and Iran. These clashes resulted in massive casualties, which instigated the Azerbaijani president, Heydar Aliyev, to call for long ceasefires that were rejected by Armenia. The war ended with Armenia’s victory. Even if Nagorno-Karabakh was internationally viewed as Azerbaijani territory, Armenian forces were allowed to take military control over the region and establish the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Although the war ceased in 1994 when both Azerbaijan and Armenia signed the Bishkek Protocol, the two parties actually never agreed on a peace treaty. The protocol ended the First Nagorno-Karabakh War and froze the issue. The ceasefire was breached on a number of occasions, particularly during the 2008 clashes, 2016 clashes and ended entirely with the outbreak of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh outbreak.Border ClashesAs mentioned before, the Bishkek Protocol remained effective between both countries, until the first of the many clashes, which occurred in 2010. Both sides accused the other of violating the ceasefire regime. These were the worst violations of the cease-fire (which has been in place since 1994) in two years and left Armenian forces with the heaviest casualties. Throughout the years, there have been more casualties in between 2011-2013 followed by 2014 helicopter shootdown. The fight among the border continued occasionally, escalating the tension further. Between 2011 and 2019, clashes between Armenian NKR and Azerbaijan serially reiterated, killing over 485 soldiers and civilians.2020 Nagorno-Karabakh WarFighting broke out in the morning on 27th September 2020, following months of increasing tension. The war was an armed conflict, Azerbaijan backed up by Turkey and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh with Armenia. As both countries had started to become more impatient regarding the issue, the escalation of the tension did not take long. Azerbaijan introduced a curfew, martial law and partial mobilization, also Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan. As Azerbaijan’s main ally, Turkey’s impact over the course of the events is highly important.?The war between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenians preceded its occurrence for 6 weeks until Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace deal on November 9th, 2020, ending all the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh area. The deal included that the warring sides will keep control of their currently held areas within Nagorno-Karabakh, and required Armenia to withdraw their forces from Armenian occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh. With the deployment of a peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation along the line of contact and the Lachin Corridor.Currently, the conflict remains stable and is under the terms of the ceasefire agreement. However, another occurrence of a dispute is still expected.??INVOLVED COUNTRIES AND ORGANIZATIONSTurkey: Since Azerbaijan and Turkey have strong economic, military, cultural, linguistic ties, also referring to their relationship as “two states, one nation”, Turkey was expected to be an ally of Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Turkey and Armenia already have a fraught history. Armenia calls the killing of almost 1.5 million Armenians in the late Ottoman period a “genocide”, which Turkey repeatedly refutes. In the matter of Turkey’s impact regarding the issue, it has been stated that the drones that Turkey provided have had a major impact in the conflict. Turkey also does not seem to be in the aim of being directly involved in the fighting, guaranteeing their relationship with Russia.?Russia:? Russia’s impact over the situation can be considered as an endgame, due to them consulting the peace deal. The dependency between Armenia and Russia is coming from the military base that Russia has, with which also shares economic ties. Russian President Vladimir Putin has long sought to stay on good terms with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, in part due to their location along an important energy corridor coveted by the West. Moscow pursued a policy of neutrality over the decades-old tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh.United States of America: The United States State Department confirmed contacting both Azerbaijani and Armenian governments, encouraging them to maintain direct communication links to avoid escalating the conflict. The US, while maintaining a neutral stance, has opted for peace through communication, instead of conflict.OSCE Minsk Group: Created on the 24th of March 1992, The OCSE Minsk group looks for peaceful and negotiated solutions to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Its permanent members are Belarus, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, with co-chairs Igor Popov from the Russian Federation, Stéphane Visconti from the French Republic, and Andrew Schofer from the United States of America. In this instance, it has called for an immediate ceasefire from both sides. The French and Russian co-chairs have enforced looking for a peaceful solution through mediated talks.TIMELINE OF EVENTS?Late 1980sThe referendum, where the enclave’s parliament voted in favour of uniting with Armenia was held, whereby most of the population voted in favour of independence.1988The dissolution of Soviet Union neared, also gradually making the tension grow into a violent conflict, between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijan.20 February 1988The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) in Azerbaijan voted to unify the region with Armenia.March 1988Gugark Pogrom against Azerbaijani people, resulting with the death of 180-187 of Azerbaijani civilianJanuary 12-19 1990Baku Pogrom against Armenians, death of 48 Armenian and civilians from other ethnic origins26 February 1992Khojaly Massacre against Azerbaijani civilians, resulting with the tragic deaths of 200-600 Azerbaijani.?Late Winter of 1992The full-scale clashes between parties initiated and attempts for mediation by OSCE failed.1994, Prior to the CeasefireArmenians were in full control of most of the enclave and also held and currently control approximately 9% of Azerbaijan's territory outside the enclave.May 5, 1994Bishkek Protocol, a provisional ceasefire agreement, was signed with a particular affirmation of overwhelming Armenian victory by AzerbaijanMarch 4, 2008The 2008 Mardakert Clashes began on 4 March after the 2008 Armenian Election Protests, the first sturdy military confrontation since the signing of the Bishkek Protocol.March 14, 2008UN General Assembly by a recorded vote of 39 in favour to 7 against adopted Resolution 62/243, demanding the immediate withdrawal of all Armenian forces from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.Between 2008-2010In total, a number of 74 soldiers were killed on both sides.2011In all during the year, 10 Armenian soldiers were killed2012In all during 2012, 19 Azerbaijani and 14 Armenian soldiers were killed.201312 Azerbaijani and 7 Armenian soldiers were killed in border clashes2014By August 5, 2014, the fighting that started on 27 July had left 14 Azerbaijani and 5 Armenian soldiers dead. Overall, 27 Azerbaijani soldiers had died since the start of the year in border clashesNovember 12, 2014Azerbaijani armed forces shot down a Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army Mil Mi-24 helicopter over Karabakh's Agdam district. In the incident resulting with the death of 3 servicemen, Armenia's Defense Ministry stated the aircraft was unarmed and called its downing an "unprecedented provocation". Azerbaijani authorities claimed the helicopter was "trying to attack" Azerbaijani army positions.2015In 2015 alone, Baku spent $3bn on its military, more than Armenia's entire national budget.April 201688 Armenian and 31–92 Azerbaijani soldiers died in addition to 10 civilian casualties and destruction of an Azerbaijani military helicopter, 13 unmanned drones and an Azerbaijani tank.2016-2017Several border clashes with varying severance took place through the years of which shelling of artillery positions and usage of anti-tan batteries have been witnessed in notable ones.2018?8 Artsakh soldiers were killed by Azerbaijani snipers and 3 civilians were killed in demining operations held by Artsakh.?September 27 2020Border clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh re-erupted, leading to Armenia declaring martial law and mobilization followed by declaration of martial law and establishment of curfew by Azerbaijan's ParliamentOctober 3 2020Azerbaijan and Armenia/Artsakh began trading missile and rocket artillery strikes against infrastructure. Among the targets hit were Stepanakert, the capital of Artsakh, a bridge linking Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh, which was taken out in a missile strike.October 10 2020Russia reported that both Armenia and Azerbaijan had agreed on a humanitarian ceasefire.October 26 2020Azerbaijani advance to within 25 kilometers of the Lachin corridorNovember 8 2020Azerbaijani forces seized Shusha, the second-largest city in Artsakh before the war, located 15 kilometers from Stepanakert, the republic's capital.?November 9 2020Ceasefire Agreement signed with stipulates stating the retreatment of Armenian soldiers and transmission of control to Azerbaijan.?PREVIOUS ATTEMPTS TO SOLVE THE ISSUEWhile the flaring 2020 Nagorno Karabakh War mainly involves Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is also important to understand the surrounding parties that have acted and reacted prior to the war, either directly or indirectly. The United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey, France, Germany, Pakistan, and The European Union have all had their opinions, and some have even taken action.?Since the beginning of the latest fierce clashes, the two sides claim to have inflicted heavy losses on opposing forces and ignored repeated calls from international leaders to halt fighting. The member countries of the OSCE Minsk Group, the European Union and NATO, among others, have urged an immediate halt to clashes in the occupied region.The effectiveness of the OSCE Minsk Group has been highly criticized by Azerbaijani and Armenian States, concerning its absolute transparency and usefulness. The inefficiency of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group to find a solution to the conflict has further escalated tensions. The president of Azerbaijan, ?lham Aliyev indicated that the Minsk group of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has not yet played any role in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict which recently escalated after Armenian forces launched attacks on Azerbaijani civilians and security personnel. Some even accused the group members that instead of producing solutions, the co-chairs of Minsk Group gained time for Armenia to settle further in the areas it occupied.The last summit between Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan took place on October 16, 2017 organized by Minsk Group in Geneva, Switzerland. The presidents admitted to take appropriate actions in order to reinforce the negotiations process and decrease tensions on the Line of Contact.Although several meetings had been held between government officials of parties, it has been pointed out that neither concrete solutions have ever been proposed by the Minsk Group nor to a precise outcome can they ever reach.?POSSIBLE SOLUTIONSIf we are to come up with a permanent solution to this on-going conflict, we should expose the dispute in a wider point of view, both looking at the past attempts and concerning the future. Since the topic is an issue which has a long history and many tried solutions, each and every country has their very own experience regarding the conflict. The Nagorno-Karabakh is a region that carries out a geopolitical value and both parties are in the contest of taking the hold of that strength. It should not be forgotten that this dispute is not only caused by political desires but also the economic side of the issue, as in this case both countries are in a fierce fight over natural resource. It could be expected that a dispute is highly possible among the region, due to its value when it comes to the transmission of a mass fortune of natural gas and gasoline, being the intersection region of Iraq-Iran.Both parties made their claims, Azerbaijan stating their longstanding governance of the region, while Armenia indicated the demographic structure of the region. As aforementioned, there have been several referendums that have been organized in the region, showing the ineffectiveness of them, and how Armenia’s claims cannot be easily compensated. While coming up with beneficial solutions, it is totally crucial to heed the fact that neither state’s solidarity cannot be endangered. One thing that surely needs to be ensured is that both parties’ satisfactions, to ensure the security of the civilians. Our solutions here will be, placing a permanent governance with its full-independence and self-governance rights. It is also important to not cleanse the region by its cultural assets and respect the residents within their desires. On the other hand, this solution may eventually cause another dispute in the future, therefore, it can be suggested that either state would be the governor of the region, yet with the other state having inconsistent privileges for the residents. Other than these solutions, each country is more than welcomed to come up with solutions in the course of the committee. It’s not impossible to have a last to this conflict and save many lives while ensuring peace and safety.?BIBLIOGRAPHY? ................
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