S.1. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)



Supplementary InformationMitigation pathways towards national ambient air quality standards in IndiaPallav Purohita, Markus Amanna, Gregor Kiesewettera, Peter Rafaja, Vaibhav Chaturvedib, Hem H. Dholakiab, Poonam Nagar Kotib, Zbigniew Klimonta, Jens Borken-Kleefelda, Adriana Gomez-Sanabriaa, Wolfgang Sch?ppa and Robert SanderaaInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria bCouncil on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), New Delhi, India. Contents TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u S.1. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) PAGEREF _Toc18004814 \h 3S.2. The GAINS model PAGEREF _Toc18004815 \h 4S.2.1. Comparison of modelled to observed PM2.5 PAGEREF _Toc18004816 \h 5S.3. Data sources and assumptions for the GCAM scenarios PAGEREF _Toc18004817 \h 6S.3.1 Energy supply PAGEREF _Toc18004818 \h 6S.3.2 Energy demand PAGEREF _Toc18004819 \h 6S.3.3 Socio-economic variables PAGEREF _Toc18004820 \h 6S.3.4 Energy access PAGEREF _Toc18004821 \h 6S.4. Source contributions to PM2.5 annual concentration by State/region PAGEREF _Toc18004822 \h 8S.5 Sectoral policies and measures incorporated in the energy baseline projection PAGEREF _Toc18004823 \h 14S.6. Pollution control legislation considered in the 2018 legislation scenario PAGEREF _Toc18004824 \h 16Figures PAGEREF _Toc18004825 \h 19Tables PAGEREF _Toc18004826 \h 26References PAGEREF _Toc18004827 \h 37 S.1. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)GCAM is a dynamic-recursive model with technology-rich representations of the economy, energy sector, land use and water linked to a climate model that can be used to explore climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, regulations and accelerated deployment of energy technology ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"guoyB31U","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Edmonds et al., 1997; McJeon et al., 2014)","plainCitation":"(Edmonds et al., 1997; McJeon et al., 2014)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5831,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5831,"type":"article-journal","title":"An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies","container-title":"Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change","page":"311-339","volume":"1","issue":"4","source":"Springer Link","abstract":"We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.","DOI":"10.1007/BF00464886","ISSN":"1573-1596","journalAbbreviation":"Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change","language":"en","author":[{"family":"Edmonds","given":"Jae"},{"family":"Wise","given":"Marshall"},{"family":"Pitcher","given":"Hugh"},{"family":"Richels","given":"Richard"},{"family":"Wigley","given":"Tom"},{"family":"Maccracken","given":"Chris"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["1997",12,1]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":5688,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5688,"type":"article-journal","title":"Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas","container-title":"Nature","page":"482-485","volume":"514","issue":"7523","source":"","abstract":"The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America1. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources2. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions3,4,5,6. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal7,8. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy–economy–climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope9,10 or its coverage of greenhouse gases2. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models11 of energy–economy–climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from ?2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from ?0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy9,10.","DOI":"10.1038/nature13837","ISSN":"1476-4687","language":"en","author":[{"family":"McJeon","given":"Haewon"},{"family":"Edmonds","given":"Jae"},{"family":"Bauer","given":"Nico"},{"family":"Clarke","given":"Leon"},{"family":"Fisher","given":"Brian"},{"family":"Flannery","given":"Brian P."},{"family":"Hilaire","given":"Jér?me"},{"family":"Krey","given":"Volker"},{"family":"Marangoni","given":"Giacomo"},{"family":"Mi","given":"Raymond"},{"family":"Riahi","given":"Keywan"},{"family":"Rogner","given":"Holger"},{"family":"Tavoni","given":"Massimo"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014",10]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":""} (Edmonds et al., 1997; McJeon et al., 2014). Regional population and labor productivity growth assumptions drive the energy and land-use systems employing numerous technology options to produce, transform, and provide energy services as well as to produce agriculture and forest products, and to determine land use and land cover. Using a run period extending from 1990 – 2100 at 5 year intervals, GCAM has been used to explore the potential role of emerging energy supply technologies and the greenhouse gas consequences of specific policy measures or energy technology adoption including; CO2 capture and storage, bioenergy, hydrogen systems, nuclear energy, renewable energy technology, and energy use technology in buildings, industry and the transportation sectors. In GCAM-IIMA building sector, following are the services along with the alternation fuel sources: (i) Cooling and heating are fueled by electricity, (ii) Cooking is fueled by LPG/natural gas, biomass, coal and electricity, (iii) Lighting is fueled by electricity and kerosene, and (iv) Appliances (TV, fridge, etc.) are fueled by electricity. Model descriptions for the residential and commercial building sector can be found in ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"xOMpV04S","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Eom et al., 2012)","plainCitation":"(Eom et al., 2012)","dontUpdate":true,"noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5967,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5967,"type":"article-journal","title":"China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment","container-title":"Energy","collection-title":"Energy and Exergy Modelling of Advance Energy Systems","page":"405-419","volume":"46","issue":"1","source":"ScienceDirect","abstract":"Buildings are an important contributor to China's energy consumption and attendant CO2 emissions. Measures to address energy consumption and associated emissions from the buildings sector will be an important part of strategy to reduce the country's CO2 emissions. This study presents a detailed, service-based model of China's building energy demand, nested in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment framework. Using the model, we explored long-term pathways of China's building energy demand and identified opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A range of different scenarios was also developed to gain insights into how China's building sector might evolve and what the implications might be for improved building energy technology and carbon policies. The analysis suggests that China's building energy growth will not wane anytime soon, although technology improvement will put downward pressure on this growth: In the reference scenarios, the sector's final energy demand will increase by 110–150% by 2050 and 160–220% by 2095 from its 2005 level. Also, regardless of the scenarios represented, the growth will involve the continued, rapid electrification of the buildings sector throughout the century, and this transition will be accelerated by the implementation of carbon policy.","DOI":"10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.009","ISSN":"0360-5442","title-short":"China's building energy demand","journalAbbreviation":"Energy","author":[{"family":"Eom","given":"Jiyong"},{"family":"Clarke","given":"Leon"},{"family":"Kim","given":"Son H."},{"family":"Kyle","given":"Page"},{"family":"Patel","given":"Pralit"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2012",10,1]]}}}],"schema":""} Eom et al. (2012) and ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"eqblcfS0","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Chaturvedi et al., 2014)","plainCitation":"(Chaturvedi et al., 2014)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5557,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5557,"type":"article-journal","title":"Long term building energy demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework","container-title":"Energy Policy","page":"226-242","volume":"64","source":"ScienceDirect","abstract":"With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass).","DOI":"10.1016/j.enpol.2012.11.021","ISSN":"0301-4215","title-short":"Long term building energy demand for India","journalAbbreviation":"Energy Policy","author":[{"family":"Chaturvedi","given":"Vaibhav"},{"family":"Eom","given":"Jiyong"},{"family":"Clarke","given":"Leon E."},{"family":"Shukla","given":"Priyadarshi R."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014",1,1]]}}}],"schema":""} (Chaturvedi et al., 2014), and for the transportation sector in ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"eoKrZw7x","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Kyle and Kim, 2011)","plainCitation":"(Kyle and Kim, 2011)","dontUpdate":true,"noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5965,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5965,"type":"article-journal","title":"Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands","container-title":"Energy Policy","page":"3012-3024","volume":"39","issue":"5","source":"ScienceDirect","abstract":"This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450ppmv CO2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy.","DOI":"10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.016","ISSN":"0301-4215","journalAbbreviation":"Energy Policy","author":[{"family":"Kyle","given":"Page"},{"family":"Kim","given":"Son H."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2011",5,1]]}}}],"schema":""} Kyle and Kim (2011) and ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"FGqHgQib","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Mishra et al., 2013)","plainCitation":"(Mishra et al., 2013)","dontUpdate":true,"noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5963,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5963,"type":"report","title":"Transportation Module of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM): Model Documentation - Verion 1.0","publisher":"Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis.","publisher-place":"Davis, California, USA","event-place":"Davis, California, USA","author":[{"family":"Mishra","given":"G."},{"family":"Kyle","given":"P."},{"family":"Teter","given":"J."},{"family":"Morrison","given":"G."},{"family":"Kim","given":"S."},{"family":"Yeh","given":"S."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2013"]]}}}],"schema":""} Mishra et al. (2013). The GCAM industrial module distinguishes various industrial sectors like steel, paper, cement, etc. ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"9c4hfi4q","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Zhou et al., 2013)","plainCitation":"(Zhou et al., 2013)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5964,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5964,"type":"article-journal","title":"Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective","container-title":"Energy Policy","page":"284-294","volume":"58","source":"ScienceDirect","abstract":"The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China's final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China's per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095.","DOI":"10.1016/j.enpol.2013.03.014","ISSN":"0301-4215","journalAbbreviation":"Energy Policy","author":[{"family":"Zhou","given":"Sheng"},{"family":"Kyle","given":"G. Page"},{"family":"Yu","given":"Sha"},{"family":"Clarke","given":"Leon E."},{"family":"Eom","given":"Jiyong"},{"family":"Luckow","given":"Patrick"},{"family":"Chaturvedi","given":"Vaibhav"},{"family":"Zhang","given":"Xiliang"},{"family":"Edmonds","given":"James A."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2013",7,1]]}}}],"schema":""} (Zhou et al., 2013). On the supply side, electricity production is modeled in detail considering nine fuels competing for electricity production, with more than one technology within each fuel.Figure A.1: Schematic representation of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) Source: Joint Global Change Research Institute/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USAS.2. The GAINS modelThe GAINS (Greenhouse gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model explores cost-effective multi-pollutant emission control strategies that meet environmental objectives on air quality impacts (on human health and ecosystems) and greenhouse gases. GAINS, developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), brings together data on economic development, the structure, control potential and costs of emission sources, the formation and dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere and an assessment of environmental impacts of pollution ().GAINS addresses air pollution impacts on human health from fine particulate matter and ground-level ozone, vegetation damage caused by ground-level ozone, the acidification of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and excess nitrogen deposition to soils, in addition to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. GAINS describes the interrelations between these multiple effects and the pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM, NMVOC, NH3, CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases) that contribute to these effects at the European scale. GAINS explores, for each of the source regions considered in the model, the cost-effectiveness of more than 2000 measures to control emissions to the atmosphere. It computes the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants and analyses the costs and environmental impacts of pollution control strategies. In its optimization mode, GAINS identifies the least-cost balance of emission control measures across pollutants, economic sectors and countries that meet user-specified air quality and climate targets. The Indian version of the GAINS model that is used for this study employs a spatially disaggregated representation of India using 23 sub-regions. The national energy projections supplied by GCAM are allocated across Indian States using the proportional downscaling algorithm reported by ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"nqOaV5vw","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Rafaj et al., 2013)","plainCitation":"(Rafaj et al., 2013)","dontUpdate":true,"noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":3994,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":3994,"type":"article-journal","title":"Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies","container-title":"Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change","page":"801-824","volume":"18","issue":"6","source":"link.","abstract":"This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion € when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion (Euros) € is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50 %. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication.","DOI":"10.1007/s11027-012-9390-6","ISSN":"1381-2386, 1573-1596","journalAbbreviation":"Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change","language":"en","author":[{"family":"Rafaj","given":"Peter"},{"family":"Sch?pp","given":"Wolfgang"},{"family":"Russ","given":"Peter"},{"family":"Heyes","given":"Chris"},{"family":"Amann","given":"Markus"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2013",8,1]]}}}],"schema":""} Rafaj et al. (2013). Total energy consumption data provided by national energy projections is distributed across States based on shares derived from subnational energy and industrial statistics. These statistics were compiled initially for the first version of the GAINS-India model ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"4nuORwUs","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Purohit et al., 2010)","plainCitation":"(Purohit et al., 2010)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":4460,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":4460,"type":"report","title":"GAINS-Asia. Scenarios for cost-effective control of air pollution and greenhouse gases in India","publisher":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)","publisher-place":"Laxenburg, Austria","event-place":"Laxenburg, Austria","author":[{"family":"Purohit","given":"P."},{"family":"Amann","given":"M."},{"family":"Mathur","given":"R."},{"family":"Gupta","given":"I."},{"family":"Marwah","given":"S."},{"family":"Verma","given":"V."},{"family":"Bertok","given":"I."},{"family":"Borken-Kleefeld","given":"J."},{"family":"Chambers","given":"A."},{"family":"Cofala","given":"J."},{"family":"Heyes","given":"C."},{"family":"Hoglund-Isaksson","given":"L."},{"family":"Klimont","given":"Z"},{"family":"Rafaj","given":"P."},{"family":"Sandler","given":"R."},{"family":"Schoepp","given":"W."},{"family":"Toth","given":"G."},{"family":"Wagner","given":"F."},{"family":"Winiwarter","given":"W."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2010"]]}}}],"schema":""} (Purohit et al., 2010), and later updated for the GAINS-City model for Delhi and its neighboring States ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"nW6nAjaQ","properties":{"unsorted":true,"formattedCitation":"(Amann et al., 2017; Bhanarkar et al., 2018)","plainCitation":"(Amann et al., 2017; Bhanarkar et al., 2018)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5483,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5483,"type":"article-journal","title":"Managing future air quality in megacities: A case study for Delhi","container-title":"Atmospheric Environment","page":"99-111","volume":"161","source":"ScienceDirect","abstract":"Megacities in Asia rank high in air pollution at the global scale. In many cities, ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) have been exceeding both the WHO interim targets as well as respective national air quality standards. This paper presents a systems analytical perspective on management options that could efficiently improve air quality at the urban scale, having Delhi as a case study. We employ the newly developed GAINS-City policy analysis framework, consisting of a bottom up emission calculation combined with atmospheric chemistry-transport calculation, to derive innovative insights into the current sources of pollution and their impacts on ambient PM2.5, both from emissions of primary PM as well as precursors of secondary inorganic and organic aerosols. We outline the likely future development of these sources, quantify the related ambient PM2.5 concentrations and health impacts, and explore potential policy interventions that could effectively reduce environmental pollution and resulting health impacts in the coming years. The analysis demonstrates that effective improvement of Delhi's air quality requires collaboration with neighboring States and must involve sources that are less relevant in industrialized countries. At the same time, many of the policy interventions will have multiple co-benefits on development targets in Delhi and its neighboring States. Outcomes of this study, as well as the modelling tools used herein, are applicable to other urban areas and fast growing metropolitan zones in the emerging Asian regions.","DOI":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.04.041","ISSN":"1352-2310","title-short":"Managing future air quality in megacities","journalAbbreviation":"Atmospheric Environment","author":[{"family":"Amann","given":"Markus"},{"family":"Purohit","given":"Pallav"},{"family":"Bhanarkar","given":"Anil D."},{"family":"Bertok","given":"Imrich"},{"family":"Borken-Kleefeld","given":"Jens"},{"family":"Cofala","given":"Janusz"},{"family":"Heyes","given":"Chris"},{"family":"Kiesewetter","given":"Gregor"},{"family":"Klimont","given":"Zbigniew"},{"family":"Liu","given":"Jun"},{"family":"Majumdar","given":"Dipanjali"},{"family":"Nguyen","given":"Binh"},{"family":"Rafaj","given":"Peter"},{"family":"Rao","given":"Padma S."},{"family":"Sander","given":"Robert"},{"family":"Sch?pp","given":"Wolfgang"},{"family":"Srivastava","given":"Anjali"},{"family":"Vardhan","given":"B. Harsh"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2017",7]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":5554,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5554,"type":"article-journal","title":"Managing future air quality in megacities: Co-benefit assessment for Delhi","container-title":"Atmospheric Environment","page":"158-177","volume":"186","source":"ScienceDirect","abstract":"Urbanization, population and economic growth in Indian megacities like Delhi have resulted in an increase in energy and transportation demand leading to severe air pollution and related health impacts, as well as to the rapid growth in the greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, an integrated assessment of air quality and climate policies for Indian cities – with a particular focus on National Capital Territory of Delhi, has been carried out. We have developed emission inventory of air pollutants and greenhouse gases for the base year (2010) and evaluated the impact of current policies on emission projections by 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario. Emissions of coarse and fine particulate matter are projected to be 51% and 15% higher in 2030 as compared to present. As the current legislations do not indicate progress towards the achievement of the Indian National Ambient Air Quality Standards in Delhi, we explored the effectiveness of additional emission control strategies with either advanced end-of-pipe emission controls or low carbon policies. Relative to the baseline scenario, the set of alternative policy strategies would reduce emissions rapidly in 2030. The results revealed that air quality policies under various scenarios could also have co-benefits of reducing carbon emissions. At the same time, the results suggest that low carbon policies would be more efficient to cut emissions as compared to advanced end-of-pipe emission control policies. However, their implementation could be limited by the availability of clean fuels. In the climate policy scenario, carbon emission in 2030 is estimated to decrease by 19% relative to baseline. Additional controls combined with low carbon policies like controlling non-industrial emissions create an opportunity to further enhance the scope for co-benefits and to attain the air quality standards in Delhi.","DOI":"10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.05.026","ISSN":"1352-2310","title-short":"Managing future air quality in megacities","journalAbbreviation":"Atmospheric Environment","author":[{"family":"Bhanarkar","given":"Anil D."},{"family":"Purohit","given":"Pallav"},{"family":"Rafaj","given":"Peter"},{"family":"Amann","given":"Markus"},{"family":"Bertok","given":"Imrich"},{"family":"Cofala","given":"Janusz"},{"family":"Rao","given":"Padma S."},{"family":"Vardhan","given":"B. Harsha"},{"family":"Kiesewetter","given":"Gregor"},{"family":"Sander","given":"Robert"},{"family":"Sch?pp","given":"Wolfgang"},{"family":"Majumdar","given":"Dipanjali"},{"family":"Srivastava","given":"Anjali"},{"family":"Deshmukh","given":"Swapnil"},{"family":"Kawarti","given":"Amit"},{"family":"Kumar","given":"Rakesh"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018",8,1]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":""} (Amann et al., 2017; Bhanarkar et al., 2018), as well as for the World Energy Outlook 2015 study focusing at India ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"gD93z7uR","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Cofala et al., 2015)","plainCitation":"(Cofala et al., 2015)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5724,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5724,"type":"report","title":"Implications of energy trajectories from the World Energy Outlook 2015 for India's air pollution. Final IIASA Report.","publisher":"International Energy Agency (IEA)","publisher-place":"Paris","event-place":"Paris","URL":" /Air_pollution_emissions_impacts_India_WEO2015_IIASA.pdf","author":[{"family":"Cofala","given":"J."},{"family":"Bertok","given":"I."},{"family":"Borken-Kleefeld","given":"J."},{"family":"Heyes","given":"C."},{"family":"Kiesewetter","given":"G."},{"family":"Klimont","given":"Z"},{"family":"Purohit","given":"P."},{"family":"Rafaj","given":"P."},{"family":"Sander","given":"R."},{"family":"Sch?pp","given":"W."},{"family":"Amann","given":"M."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2017",12,23]]}}}],"schema":""} (Cofala et al., 2015). The downscaling procedure also allocates energy consumption to subsectors and fuel types that are not explicitly provided by the energy model. These include various transport categories (road/off-road; cars/trucks/buses; land-based/ships), industrial demand activities (cement/metals/chemicals/others; furnaces/boilers), and fuel conversion (refineries/coking/others). For each of the States/regions considered in GAINS, emission estimates for a particular emission control scenario consider (1) the detailed sectoral structure of the emission sources that emerges from the downscaling of the activity projection described above, (2) their technical features (e.g., fuel quality, plant types, etc.), and (3) applied emission controls (GAINS includes a database of over 1000 technical measures). For each key source sector, the spatial patterns of PM and its precursors emissions are then estimated at a 0.5? × 0.5? longitude–latitude resolution ( ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"PmTmO3wW","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Klimont et al., 2017)","plainCitation":"(Klimont et al., 2017)","dontUpdate":true,"noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5406,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5406,"type":"article-journal","title":"Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon","container-title":"Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics","page":"8681–8723","volume":"17","issue":"14","DOI":"10.5194/acp-17-8681-2017","author":[{"family":"Klimont","given":"Z."},{"family":"Kupiainen","given":"K."},{"family":"Heyes","given":"C."},{"family":"Purohit","given":"P."},{"family":"Cofala","given":"J."},{"family":"Rafaj","given":"P."},{"family":"Borken-Kleefeld","given":"J."},{"family":"Sch?pp","given":"W."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2017"]]}}}],"schema":""} Klimont et al. 2017), based on relevant proxy variables. These estimates rely on the most recent updates of data on population distribution, road networks, plant locations, open biomass burning, etc. that were originally developed within the Global Energy Assessment project ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"BADlDG77","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(GEA, 2012)","plainCitation":"(GEA, 2012)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":4694,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":4694,"type":"book","title":"Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future","publisher-place":"Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria","event-place":"Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria","URL":"","ISBN":"9781 10700 5198 hardback 9780 52118 2935 paperback","title-short":"Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future","author":[{"family":"GEA","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2012"]]}}}],"schema":""} (GEA, 2012).S.2.1. Comparison of modelled to observed PM2.5Figure A.2 shows a comparison of ground-level ambient PM2.5 concentrations calculated with the GAINS model to observations as far as available for the year 2015 from the World Health Organization (WHO) Ambient Air Pollution Database and the Delhi Pollution Control Committee (DPCC) website. Unfortunately, limited information is available for many of the monitoring data points, particularly regarding the station types and positioning, and data coverage. In general, agreement seems reasonable; with one exception, modelled concentrations in all cities are within a factor 2 of the measured values. The outlier in Muzaffarpur with measured PM2.5 concentrations of 197 ?g/m3 seems rather questionable since PM10 concentrations are reported at 214 ?g/m3 at the same location and year, implying a very unusual PM2.5/PM10 ratio of 0.92.Figure A.2. Validation of modelled PM2.5 against observations in 2015. Observation points for the same city (Delhi) are connected.S.3. Data sources and assumptions for the GCAM scenariosS.3.1 Energy supplyThe GCAM-IIMA version starts with the base year 2010 and operates at five years’ time steps till 2100. For 2015, data on electricity generation and capacity are based on the publicly available statistics from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) and Energy Statistics. The future demand for electricity generation and other forms of energy is determined in each end use sector, where the penetration of electricity-based technologies (e.g., air-conditioning) and other-fuel based technologies (e.g., oil-based cars) grows with increasing income. The distribution of electricity generation across different technologies responds to the relative cost of generating electricity, based on stakeholder consultations with power sector experts (including renewable energy developers, National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) Ltd, and experts from the Ministry of Power (MoP)). S.3.2 Energy demandThe buildings sector distinguishes commercial buildings, rural residential, and urban residential sectors. Energy service demand is modelled for air-conditioning (high and low efficiency), cooking (biomass, coal, electricity, LPG, and natural gas), lighting (fluorescent bulbs, incandescent bulbs, kerosene lamps, and LEDs), refrigeration (high and low efficiency), ventilation (low and high efficiency ceiling fans), television, water heaters (electricity, LPG, solar) and ‘other appliances’. The demand for each energy service responds to changes in income levels, service prices, and growth in floor space). Data on electricity demand from the building sector in 2015 was provided by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), Ministry of Power (MoP). For the transport sector, energy demand is modelled for passenger transport (road, rail and aviation), freight transport (road and rail), and international shipping ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"QQqUKfvJ","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoR, 2018; MoRTH, 2016a; National Transport Development Policy Committee, 2014)","plainCitation":"(MoR, 2018; MoRTH, 2016a; National Transport Development Policy Committee, 2014)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":11962,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":11962,"type":"report","title":"Year Book: 2017-18","publisher":"Ministry of Railways (MoR), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi, India","event-place":"New Delhi, India","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoR","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":11963,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":11963,"type":"report","title":"Road Transport Year Book (2015-16)","publisher":"Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi, India","event-place":"New Delhi, India","author":[{"family":"MoRTH","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2016"]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":11961,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":11961,"type":"book","title":"India Transport Report: Moving India to 2032","publisher":"Taylor & Francis Group","volume":"I, II & III","number-of-pages":"248","ISBN":"1-138-18637-6","author":[{"family":"National Transport Development Policy Committee","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014"]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":""} (MoR, 2018; MoRTH, 2016a; National Transport Development Policy Committee, 2014), driven by per-capita GDP and population. Data on fuel consumption from the transportation sector in historical years (2010 and 2015) was provided by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (MoPNG).The industrial sector in GCAM-IIMA is modelled in an aggregate way. Demand for industrial services responds to income growth and fuel prices. Fuels (biomass, coal, electricity, natural gas and oil) compete on the basis of relative prices for providing energy services to meet industrial energy demand. The current GCAM model version only tracks the energy mix and emissions at an aggregated level for all industrial sectors. This category also includes the agricultural sector, whose electricity consumption is almost half of that of the industrial sector. Data on energy consumption from the industrial sector in 2010 and 2015 was provided by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI). S.3.3 Socio-economic variablesIn GCAM, population and income (GDP) act as exogenous drivers of energy supply and demand. Assumptions on population growth are in line with the UN population projection (medium variant) ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"RMHkVL6Q","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(UN, 2015)","plainCitation":"(UN, 2015)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":6114,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":6114,"type":"report","title":"The World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision","publisher":"Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations","publisher-place":"New York, USA","event-place":"New York, USA","URL":"","author":[{"family":"UN","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]}}}],"schema":""} (UN, 2015). For GDP, the assumptions for this study follow the medium economic growth rate projections of NITI Aayog, with an annual growth rate of 6.7 percent from 2012 to 2047.S.3.4 Energy accessGCAM contains a detailed representation of energy service demands for the urban and rural residential sectors. Demands are responsive to costs as well as income. As affordability of services increase, the demand for energy services increases both in urban and rural areas. The current policies related to energy access are represented in the analysis in the following way:Urbanisation rate: The rate of urbanisation is modelled as a function of economic growth. Higher the economic growth, higher is the transition towards urbanisation. Coherent with the data in GAINS, is an increase of urbanization to 50% in 2050 is assumed for the medium economic growth scenario.Urban rural income divide: While the framework can model increasing inequalities in incomes, a stylised representation has been adopted for this study, reflecting an optimistic assumption of the state of urban-rural divide in India’s future. Clean cooking access: The Indian government has embarked on an ambitious programme to provide clean fuel, mainly LPG to Indian households. For this study we assume that biomass will be entirely replaced by alternative cooking fuels by 2040. We also model an alternative policy failure scenario in which the biomass use remains significant for meeting cooking energy demands even in 2050. Efficient lighting: With a thrust on the LED programme, we assume that the penetration of LEDs increases at a fast pace. Incandescent bulbs will be phased out from Indian households by 2030 across all scenarios. The incandescent bulbs will be replaced by LEDs as well as CFLs. S.4. Source contributions to PM2.5 annual concentration by State/regionFigures in this Section show source contributions to population-weighted annual mean ambient PM2.5 concentrations under the 2018 legislation scenario for all States (GAINS regions). Contributions are specified by spatial origin (x axis), chemical speciation (PPM/secondary aerosols) and economic source sector for primary PM (colors). 201520302050Andhra PradeshAssamBiharChhattisgarh201520302050DelhiGoaGujaratHaryana201520302050Himachal PradeshJammu & KashmirJharkhandKarnataka201520302050KeralaMadhya PradeshMaharashtraNorth East (ext. Assam)201520302050OdishaPunjabRajasthanTamil Nadu201520302050UttarakhandUttar PradeshWest BengalS.5 Sectoral policies and measures incorporated in the energy baseline projection SectorPolicies and measuresCross-cuttingNational Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"4HkadJAA","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(GoI, 2008)","plainCitation":"(GoI, 2008)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5562,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5562,"type":"report","title":"National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)","publisher":"Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change, Government of India (GOI)","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","author":[{"family":"GoI","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2008"]]}}}],"schema":""} (GoI, 2008).National Clean Energy Fund to promote clean energy technologies based on a levy of INR 400 (USD 6) per tonne of coal ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"DRuImnxG","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Purohit, 2014)","plainCitation":"(Purohit, 2014)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5564,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5564,"type":"post-weblog","title":"Increase in coal tax will scale up Indian renewables","container-title":"East Asia Forum","URL":"","author":[{"family":"Purohit","given":"P"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014",8]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2014",11,18]]}}}],"schema":""} (Purohit, 2014).‘Make in India’ campaign to increase the share of manufacturing in the national economy.NDC GHG target: reduce emissions intensity of GDP 33-35 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"z8Q1Sts5","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(UNFCCC, 2015)","plainCitation":"(UNFCCC, 2015)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5566,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5566,"type":"report","title":"India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: Working towards Climate Justice","publisher":"United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)","publisher-place":"Bonn, Germany","event-place":"Bonn, Germany","author":[{"family":"UNFCCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]}}}],"schema":""} (UNFCCC, 2015).NDC energy target: achieve about 40 percent cumulative installed capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 with the help of technology transfer and low-cost international finance ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"OwAArgSa","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(UNFCCC, 2015)","plainCitation":"(UNFCCC, 2015)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5566,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5566,"type":"report","title":"India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: Working towards Climate Justice","publisher":"United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)","publisher-place":"Bonn, Germany","event-place":"Bonn, Germany","author":[{"family":"UNFCCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]}}}],"schema":""} (UNFCCC, 2015).Efforts to expedite environmental clearances and land acquisition for energy projects.Open the coal sector to private and foreign investors.Power sector Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and other fiscal measures to promote renewables.Increased use of supercritical coal technology.Environmental (Protection) Amendment Rules.Universal electricity access achieved by 2025.Strengthened measures such as competitive bidding to increase the use of renewables towards the national target of 175 GW of renewables capacity by 2022 (100 GW solar, 75 GW non-solar).Expanded efforts to strengthen the national grid, upgrade the transmission and distribution network and reduce aggregate technical and commercial losses to 15 percent.Increased efforts to establish the financial viability of all power ‘market participants, especially network and distribution companies.Transport sectorIncreasing blending mandate for ethanol ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"gewvVyAU","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Purohit and Dhar, 2015)","plainCitation":"(Purohit and Dhar, 2015)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":4283,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":4283,"type":"report","title":"Biofuel Roadmap for India","publisher":"UNEP DTU Partnership","publisher-place":"Copenhagen, Denmark","page":"39","event-place":"Copenhagen, Denmark","URL":"","author":[{"family":"Purohit","given":"P."},{"family":"Dhar","given":"S."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]}}}],"schema":""} (Purohit and Dhar, 2015).Support for alternative-fuel vehicles.Support for alternative-fuel vehicles, including 2020 National Electric Mobility Mission Plan; subsequent support for electric two/three-wheelers, cars and buses.Increased support for natural gas in road transport, particularly urban public transport.Dedicated rail corridors to encourage shift away from road freight.Industrial sectorEnergy Conservation Act:Mandatory energy audits.Appointment of energy managers in seven energy-intensive industries.National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE):Cycle II and III of the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme, which benchmarks facilities’ performance against best practice and enables trading of energy savings certificates.Income and corporate tax incentives for energy service companies, including the Energy Efficiency Financing Platform.Framework for Energy-Efficient Economic Development offering a risk guarantee for performance contracts and a venture capital fund for energy efficiency.Energy efficiency intervention in selected SME clusters including capacity building.Further implementation of the NMEEE’s recommendations including:Tightening of the PAT mechanism under Cycle III.Further strengthening of fiscal instruments to promote energy efficiency.Strengthen existing policies to realize the energy efficiency potential in SMEs.Building sectorRural electrification under Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY) scheme.Promotion of clean cooking access with LPG, including free connections to poor rural households through Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana.Energy Conservation Building Code 2007 with voluntary standards for commercial buildings.“Green Rating for Integrated Habitat Assessment” rating system for green buildings.Promotion and distribution of LEDs through the Efficient Lighting Programme.Standards and Labelling Programme, mandatory for air conditioners, lights, televisions, and refrigerators, voluntary for seven other products and LEDs.Phase out incandescent light bulbs by 2020.Voluntary Star Ratings for the services sector.Measures under the National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency.Enhanced efforts to increase electricity access for households.Source: ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"SDkz7dLO","properties":{"unsorted":true,"formattedCitation":"(GoI, 2014, 2008; 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GOI, 2006; MNRE, 2010; MoEFCC, 2015; Purohit and Fischer, 2014; MoP, 2014; UNFCCC, 2015)S.6. Pollution control legislation considered in the 2018 legislation scenarioThe 2018 legislation scenario considers all measures and standards that were in force in mid-2018. In particular, it includes measures to control emissions of dust from the power plants and industrial combustion sources ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"Xc9vJvIf","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2015)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2015)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":770,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":770,"type":"report","title":"Environment (Protection) Amendment Rules, 2015","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2016",12,14]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2015). To meet the new pollution norms for SO2, coal thermal power plants are required to retrofit or install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) which removes Sulphur dioxide from exhaust flue gases. In order to meet the 100 mg/Nm3 NOx standard, new plants will have to employ Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) to achieve compliance. For existing plans, the 300 mg/Nm3 standard can potentially be attained through a combination of primary measures such as combustion controls, Selective Non-catalytic (SNCR), and in some cases SCR. Table A.2 presents the key air pollution prevention policies in the power and industry sectors considered in the 2018 legislation scenario for India.Controlling emissions from mobile sources (road and off-road, incl. non-exhaust sources) is essential for air pollution abatement in India. Unit emissions from road vehicles depend mostly on the fuel used (gasoline, diesel or CNG) and on the emission control technology. Adoption of emission control technologies is in turn driven by legislation. The National Auto Fuel Policy (2003) mandates that all new four-wheeled vehicles in 11 cities meet Bharat Stage III emission norms for conventional air pollutants (similar to Euro III emission norms), and comply with Euro IV standards by 2010 ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"eZuyO58D","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoPNG, 2003)","plainCitation":"(MoPNG, 2003)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5726,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5726,"type":"report","title":"Auto Fuel Policy Report 2003","publisher":"Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","author":[{"family":"MoPNG","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2003"]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoPNG, 2003). The Auto Fuel Vision and Policy 2025 was published in May 2014 to update the 2003 document with more stringent fuel and emissions standards ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"KNXvxH3g","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoPNG, 2014)","plainCitation":"(MoPNG, 2014)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5725,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5725,"type":"report","title":"Auto Fuel Vision and Policy 2025: Report of the Expert Committee","publisher":"Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoPNG","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",12,8]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoPNG, 2014).Table A.2: Current legislation and Air pollution prevention policies implemented in the CLE scenario for IndiaS. No.SectorPolicyRemarks1.Power plantsElectrostatic precipitators (ESPs) to curb particulate matterFlue gas desulphurization (FGD) to minimize SO2 and mercurySelective catalytic converters (SCRs) and selective non-catalytic converters (SNCRs) to reduce NOx. 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ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"zgoxznP5","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018a)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018a)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5718,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5718,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary – G.S.R. 233(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC)","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",8,6]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2018a)New emission standard norms of SO2 and NOx for five industries – ceramic, foundry industries (furnaces based on fuel), glass, lime kiln and reheating furnace. ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"dZfk487d","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018b)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018b)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5717,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5717,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary - G.S.R. 263(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC)","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",6,22]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2018b)Ban on per coke and furnace oil in Industrial sector in NCR States ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"9W0PDCOJ","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018c, 2018d)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018c, 2018d)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5715,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5715,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary - G.S.R. 96(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",7,29]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":5716,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5716,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary - G.S.R. 492-195(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC)","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",7,13]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2018c, 2018d)4.AgricultureBharat (Trem) Stage III A for agricultural tractors from April 2010. Bharat (Trem) Stage III from October 2005.5.WasteBan on open burning of wastes in Indian cities. ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"BrZFI5FS","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEF, 2010)","plainCitation":"(MoEF, 2010)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5553,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5553,"type":"report","title":"Report of the Committee to Evolve Roadmap on Management of Wastes in India","publisher":"Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","author":[{"family":"MoEF","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2010"]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEF, 2010)Ban on crop residue burning in five States — Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"reDI6lu3","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(CSE, 2017)","plainCitation":"(CSE, 2017)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5719,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5719,"type":"report","title":"India's burning issue of crop burning takes a new turn. Down to Earth","publisher":"Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"CSE","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2017"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2017",8,16]]}}}],"schema":""} (CSE, 2017)Solid Waste Management Rules 2016 ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"4AW07WAM","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2016)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2016)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5721,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5721,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary – S.O. 1357(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"Available at: ","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2016"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",8,24]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2016)For historic years we model the actual introduction of the different Indian emission control stages (Bharat); for the future years (2020 onwards) measures are accounted for to leapfrog directly to Bharat State (BS)-VI for all on-road vehicle categories ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"GRx57cid","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoRTH, 2016b)","plainCitation":"(MoRTH, 2016b)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5552,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5552,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary - G.S.R. 187(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoRTH","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2016"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",6,18]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoRTH, 2016b). Specifically, for passenger cars, light-duty and heavy-duty trucks BS-III is in force from 2010. For two-wheelers standards equivalent to the European Euro-III are in force since 2010. More stringent emission controls for cars and trucks (Bharat-IV), and an associated supply of low-sulphur fuels, are mandated in Delhi and 19 other ‘advanced’ cities since April 2010. Apart from Delhi, these cities have a share of about 10%-14% of the population in their respective State, yet a higher share in the vehicle population. Heavy duty vehicles are often registered outside the city with more stringent emission control, thereby effectively circumventing the most advanced controls ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"il3MTkor","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Cofala et al., 2015)","plainCitation":"(Cofala et al., 2015)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5724,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5724,"type":"report","title":"Implications of energy trajectories from the World Energy Outlook 2015 for India's air pollution. Final IIASA Report.","publisher":"International Energy Agency (IEA)","publisher-place":"Paris","event-place":"Paris","URL":" /Air_pollution_emissions_impacts_India_WEO2015_IIASA.pdf","author":[{"family":"Cofala","given":"J."},{"family":"Bertok","given":"I."},{"family":"Borken-Kleefeld","given":"J."},{"family":"Heyes","given":"C."},{"family":"Kiesewetter","given":"G."},{"family":"Klimont","given":"Z"},{"family":"Purohit","given":"P."},{"family":"Rafaj","given":"P."},{"family":"Sander","given":"R."},{"family":"Sch?pp","given":"W."},{"family":"Amann","given":"M."}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2015"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2017",12,23]]}}}],"schema":""} (Cofala et al., 2015). Therefore, we assume that only a share of up to 10% of all State’s vehicles is complying with the most advanced controls. BS-IV air pollutant emission norms have been in force across India since April 2017. Additionally, India has also adopted nationwide fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles. A transition to BS-VI norms is expected from 1st April 2020 ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"8VzSSqy3","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(ICCT, 2016)","plainCitation":"(ICCT, 2016)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5723,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5723,"type":"report","title":"India Bharat Stage VI Emission Standards","publisher":"International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)","publisher-place":"Wilmington, NC","event-place":"Wilmington, NC","URL":" /India%20BS%20VI%20Policy%20Update%20vF.pdf","author":[{"family":"ICCT","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2016"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",5,7]]}}}],"schema":""} (ICCT, 2016). Figure A.3 presents the penetration of the Bharat Emission standards for passenger cars in Delhi and the rest of the country. The Indian emission control system follows largely the European standards and technologies, with adjusted driving cycle and temperature controls. We therefore use adjusted European emission factors to model exhaust emissions in India ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"DLo7fqKW","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Guttikunda and Mohan, 2014)","plainCitation":"(Guttikunda and Mohan, 2014)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":3612,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":3612,"type":"article-journal","title":"Re-fueling road transport for better air quality in India","container-title":"Energy Policy","page":"556-561","volume":"68","source":"CrossRef","DOI":"10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.067","ISSN":"03014215","language":"en","author":[{"family":"Guttikunda","given":"Sarath K."},{"family":"Mohan","given":"Dinesh"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2014",5]]}}}],"schema":""} (Guttikunda and Mohan, 2014). Emission controls up to Stage III are assumed for agricultural tractors and construction machinery as well as Stage I for diesel generators. Figure A.3: Penetration for Bharat emission standards for passenger cars in IndiaSimilar to the power and transport sectors, all recently implemented environmental pollution control norms at the State level and national level are simulated in GAINS for industry and waste sources. According to the Environment (Protection) Amendment Rules, as of 2018 all new brick kilns shall be allowed only with zig-zag or vertical method of brick making and shall comply to the new standards as stipulated in this notification ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"KYG8UmQq","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018a)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018a)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5718,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5718,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary – G.S.R. 233(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC)","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",8,6]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2018a). Existing brick kilns which are not using zig zag or vertical methods of brick making shall be converted so as to adopt zig zag or vertical methods within one year for kilns located near non-attainment cities, and within two years for other both kilns. The Environment Ministry has expanded the ambit of emission standard norms of SO2 and NOx for five industries – ceramic, foundry industries (furnaces based on fuel), glass, lime kiln and reheating furnace ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"B1V5vVtb","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018b)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018b)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5717,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5717,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary - G.S.R. 263(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC)","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",6,22]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2018b).In the latest effort to curb rising air pollution, India’s Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Climate Change (MoEFCC) placed restrictions on the use of petroleum coke and furnace oil to power up industries in the national capital territory (NCT) of Delhi and its surrounding region ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"3N2RCkMa","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018c, 2018d)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2018c, 2018d)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5715,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5715,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary - G.S.R. 96(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",7,29]]}},"label":"page"},{"id":5716,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5716,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary - G.S.R. 492-195(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC)","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",7,13]]}},"label":"page"}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2018c, 2018d). While India’s government plans to propose banning the use of petroleum coke as a fuel nationwide as part of a long-running case to clean the country’s air, the scenario in this study assume the ban of petroleum coke is in Delhi and it’s three neighboring States (i.e., Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh).The municipal solid waste management rules promulgated in 2000 prohibit the open burning of waste in Indian cities ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"bHSVDEbj","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEF, 2010)","plainCitation":"(MoEF, 2010)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5553,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5553,"type":"report","title":"Report of the Committee to Evolve Roadmap on Management of Wastes in India","publisher":"Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","author":[{"family":"MoEF","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2010"]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEF, 2010). The 2016 solid waste management rules require segregation, processing and recycling of waste ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"jsAGgpaN","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2016)","plainCitation":"(MoEFCC, 2016)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5721,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5721,"type":"report","title":"The Gazette of India: Extraordinary – S.O. 1357(E)","publisher":"Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India","publisher-place":"New Delhi","event-place":"New Delhi","URL":"Available at: ","author":[{"family":"MoEFCC","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2016"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",8,24]]}}}],"schema":""} (MoEFCC, 2016). The rules hold urban bodies, administration as well as users at source responsible for managing the waste. In November 2015, the National Green Tribunal banned crop residue burning in five States — Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi in which the government plans to spend $230 million over two years to prevent crop residue burning ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"8LcZcPv0","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Reuters, 2018)","plainCitation":"(Reuters, 2018)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":5708,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":5708,"type":"article-newspaper","title":"India's $230 million plan to stop crop burning that pollutes Delhi...","container-title":"Reuters","source":"","abstract":"nt's plan to spend $230 million over two years to prevent crop residue burn...","URL":"","language":"en","author":[{"family":"Reuters","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018",2,14]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",9,24]]}}}],"schema":""} (Reuters, 2018). FiguresFigure S1: PM2.5 concentrations in select Indian cities for the year 2016.Source: ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"G9boK9lt","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(WHO, 2018)","plainCitation":"(WHO, 2018)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":417,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":417,"type":"report","title":"WHO Global Ambient Air Quality Database (update 2018)","publisher":"World Health Organization (WHO)","publisher-place":"Geneva, Switzerland","event-place":"Geneva, Switzerland","URL":"","author":[{"family":"WHO","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2018",11,19]]}}}],"schema":""} (WHO, 2018)Figure S2: The relative contributions of different sectors to the precursor emissions of PM2.5 in the Indian States, GAINS estimate for 2015Figure S3: Population density of India ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"z0n0cKVC","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(GoI, 2011)","plainCitation":"(GoI, 2011)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":4395,"uris":[""],"uri":[""],"itemData":{"id":4395,"type":"report","title":"Census of India 2011","publisher":"Office of Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Government of India (GoI)","page":"New Delhi, India","URL":"","author":[{"family":"GoI","given":""}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2011"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2016",10,27]]}}}],"schema":""} (GoI, 2011) Figure S4: Distribution of population exposure to ambient PM2.5 in 2015 (GAINS estimates)3256915-9906000Figure S5: Contributions of emissions from other regions to population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations in each State/region (a) Macro-economic indicators(b) Primary energy consumption (in EJ/year)Figure S6: Assumed baseline trends of macro-economic development and energy consumption. (a)(b)Figure S7: a) Population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations, for the full and effective implementation of the 2018 legislation and the benefits from the post-2015 legislation, for India (left panel) and Delhi NCT (right panel); b) Potential benefits of the emission control packages on population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations, for all of India (left panel) and Delhi NCT (right panel)Tables Table S1: Macro-economic development and energy consumption of the baseline projection Macro-economic parameters/FuelUnit2015Annual growth rate 2015-20302030Annual growth rate 2030-20502050Population1)Million12631.21%15130.46%1659Per-capita income1)Euro13366.12%32525.69%9830GDP1)Billion €16867.40%49216.18%16307Vehicle mileage2)Billion km7916.28%19735.35%5596Energy intensity2)MJ/€ GDP19-3.40%12-2.87%6Total primary energy consumption2)PJ326253.74%566223.14%105093Biomass consumption2)PJ6509-2.07%4753-3.90%2141Coal use2)PJ167733.91%298302.81%51911Liquid fuels2)PJ68254.55%133063.99%29062Gaseous fuels2)PJ13618.01%43263.71%8958Renewable energy2)PJ5589.87%22936.49%8061Other forms of energy2)PJ5998.78%21144.36%49611) Assumption, following the medium growth scenario of NITI Aayog 2) Result from the GCAM modelTable S2: Policies and measures considered in the 2015 legislation scenarioSectorPolicies and measuresPower Mix of sub critical technology and super critical technology in coal power plants after 2015Increased efforts to establish the financial viability of all power market participants, especially network and distribution companiesStrengthened measures such as competitive bidding to increase the use of renewables towards the national target of 175 GW of renewables capacity by 2022 (100 GW solar, 75 GW non-solar)Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and other fiscal measures to promote renewablesParticulate matter controls: Electrostatic precipitators (ESPs)SO2 controls: Very small share of FGD (<2%) in power plants (only 3 power plants).Mobile sourcesPassenger cars: Baharat Stage III (nationwide from 2010) Passenger cars: Baharat Stage IV (NCR and 13 cities from 2010). Light and heavy-duty trucks: Bharat Stage III (nationwide from 2010).Light and heavy-duty trucks: Bharat Stage IV (NCR and 13 cities from 2010)Two- and Three-wheelers: Bharat Stage III (from 2010). Agricultural tractors/construction machinery: Bharat (Trem) Stage III (from 2011).FAME scheme 1: Incentives for increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs)Table S3: Additional policies and measures considered in the 2018 legislation scenario (over and above 2015 measures scenario)SectorsPolicies and measuresPower plantsComplete move towards Super-Critical technologies in Coal Power PlantReverse bidding of solar and wind power plantsFlue gas desulphurization (FGD) for SO2Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) for NOxMobile sourcesBharat Stage VI controls (all road vehicles) from 2020 onwards.Bharat (Trem) Stage IV controls (non-road machinery) from 2020 onwards and Stage V from 2024FAME scheme 1: Incentives for increasing adoption of EVs and removing the barriers of infrastructure in IndiaIndustryFull compliance with the PAT-I and PAT-II cycle.Zig-zag or vertical shaft kilns for all new brick production installationsNew emission standards for SO2 and NOx for five industries (ceramic, foundry industries (furnaces based on fuel), glass, lime kiln and reheating furnaces) Ban of coke and furnace oil in industry in the NCR StatesOther sectorsBan of open burning of waste (trash) in Indian cities and crop residue burning in NCR StatesSolid Waste Management Rules 2016.Table S4: Population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations expected in Indian States under the 2018 air quality legislation scenario.RegionsPM2.5 concentration (?g/m?)201520302050Delhi126.5114.4136.1West Bengal67.460.170.7Haryana63.259.869.5Uttar Pradesh58.753.461.5Jharkhand58.650.164.6Bihar56.648.853.4Punjab51.953.364.1Gujarat42.537.044.6Odisha42.435.844.5Rajasthan40.839.445.8Chhattisgarh39.434.342.9Maharashtra38.931.537.9Madhya Pradesh38.033.139.1Uttarakhand32.726.130.2North East31.523.526.0Andhra Pradesh*30.424.730.3Goa26.620.424.6Assam24.124.924.3Karnataka21.216.620.1Kerala20.313.713.5Tamil Nadu18.914.918.1Jammu and Kashmir15.813.213.0Himachal Pradesh14.614.015.9Table S5: Distribution of population exposure in 2015 and for the 2018 legislation scenario in 2030 and 2050 (million people exposed to different levels of PM2.5)201520302050Above 40 ?g/m3 677674930Between 40 ?g/m3 and 25 ?g/m3 389466404Less than 25 ?g/m3 227367341Table S6: Additional policies and measures assumed in the advanced measures scenario (additional to 2018 legislation)SectorPolicies/measuresPower plants High efficiency PM controls at power plants Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) at existing and new oil and gas power plantsIndustryHigh efficiency PM controls for boilersMore stringent PM controls for furnacesCombustion modification and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) on oil and gas boilers and furnacesStringent emission controls for industrial processes, including Ferrous and non-ferrous industryRefineriesCoke plantsCarbon black productionFertilizer plantsBrick kilns (increasing capacity of tunnel kilns)Improved control of flaring in refineries Suppressing fugitive emissions during coal handling HouseholdsAnnual inspection and maintenance of residential oil boilersReplacement of wick kerosene lamps with Hurricane lanternsNationwide ban on open burning of solid waste (trash)AgricultureImproved enforcement of bans on agricultural waste burning,Improved manure management in livestock productionEfficient use of urea based mineral fertilizers Suppressing dust emissions from storage and handling of agricultural cropsLow-till farming, alternative cereal harvestingTable S7: Population-weighted annual mean ambient PM2.5 concentrations (?g/m?) by State, in 2015 and for the Advanced Control Technology scenario variants in 2030 and 2050GAINS regionsPopulation-weighted annual mean ambient PM2.5 concentrations (?g/m?)2015203020502018 legislationAdvanced controls with clean household fuelsAdvanced controls without clean household fuels2018 legislationAdvanced controls with clean household fuelsAdvanced controls without clean household fuelsDelhi126.5114.5108.2111.2136.1110.5112.6West Bengal67.460.254.659.070.549.955.3Haryana63.359.656.558.469.657.960.2Jharkhand58.750.144.446.864.642.845.8Uttar Pradesh58.653.449.952.961.648.652.0Bihar56.748.845.148.953.340.544.9Punjab51.953.350.852.363.955.556.8Gujarat42.636.935.236.244.637.838.7Odisha42.435.632.234.044.430.933.0Rajasthan41.039.638.138.945.740.541.3Chhattisgarh39.634.331.132.343.030.832.1Maharashtra38.831.329.230.638.129.931.3Madhya Pradesh38.033.131.332.538.932.233.4Uttaranchal32.826.024.425.730.123.625.0North East31.723.522.523.725.922.924.3Andhra Pradesh30.524.822.624.030.322.423.5Goa26.620.119.019.424.519.519.9Assam24.224.823.625.124.420.122.1Karnataka21.216.715.416.219.915.216.0Kerala20.113.712.513.713.410.211.6Tamil Nadu19.114.813.414.518.013.214.0Jammu and Kashmir15.713.212.413.612.810.712.0Himachal Pradesh14.714.113.213.816.012.312.9Table S8: Additional policies and measures assumed in the sustainable development scenario (additional to 2018 legislation and advanced measures case)SectorAdditional policies and measuresPower plants /industryVariable Renewable Energy integration cost will be borne by the government. No CCS technology introduction due to high technology cost as compared to conventional technologyIncrease in domestic manufacturing of solar panelsIndustrial energy efficiency improvements by 54% penetration of electricity in total fuel mix. Increase in energy efficiency of industrial sectorNear doubling of non-fossil electricity generation capacity by 2050Increased share of renewables in industryMobile sourcesImprovements in energy efficiencyIncreased incentives for greater adoption of EVsImproved public transport infrastructure and capacity in the cities Road dust control (road paving, cleaning, increasing green areas)HouseholdsIncreased efficiency improvements in buildings and appliances Replacement of kerosene lamps with LED lamps for domestic lightingAdvanced cookstoves for the remaining population using solid fuels for cooking Phase-out of biomass use in domestic cooking by 2040 in rural area and by 2030 in urban areaAgricultureMore stringent policies for manure management and fertilizer applicationEfficient enforcement of ban of agricultural waste burningTable S9: Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions by State/regionState/region2018 legislation scenarioAdvanced control scenarioSustainable development scenario2015203020502030205020302050Andhra Pradesh?853.3438.3807.0363.1456.2352.4264.2Assam57.938.164.831.937.430.524.5Bihar176.579.0131.967.475.663.344.6Chhattisgarh497.7216.6364.4186.5211.8173.988.3Delhi79.930.243.325.425.09.95.4Goa36.712.620.812.015.611.68.9Gujarat1038.3585.21092.1476.2624.9429.7268.5Haryana381.1123.3245.9101.4118.9177.1239.2Himachal Pradesh 23.320.837.716.519.216.312.1Jammu & Kashmir27.911.318.310.211.610.07.2Jharkhand601.2298.9503.1250.0269.0227.174.6Karnataka438.8190.4365.3153.9180.4161.2117.5Kerala170.482.8132.970.574.573.143.3Madhya Pradesh 548.4203.7383.2172.4223.4160.1115.8Maharashtra1222.2387.3664.0344.0417.0354.0275.8North East?55.721.327.918.815.421.09.4Odisha 406.0239.1424.5194.8224.5189.6118.7Punjab309.3132.0248.1117.2147.4257.7315.8Rajasthan715.3577.01112.9533.8907.6839.01236.1Tamil Nadu708.7335.9612.5289.6376.8277.5175.7Uttar Pradesh 896.7345.3618.9302.9386.1823.91081.5Uttarakhand 29.317.130.914.317.014.711.8West Bengal511.6210.9347.4183.1201.2188.5120.7Total9786.34597.18297.73936.15036.44862.14659.7?Including Telangana?Excluding Assam Table S10: Nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions by State/regionState/region2018 legislation scenarioAdvanced control scenarioSustainable development scenario2015203020502030205020302050Andhra Pradesh?555.9710.5960.7641.8678.1575.5332.8Assam89.095.897.591.380.784.058.5Bihar191.1209.0263.6198.9212.0170.7127.9Chhattisgarh277.7358.0481.5333.8386.7286.5119.4Delhi173.4145.5119.5145.5111.886.850.0Goa35.738.838.836.331.634.016.4Gujarat629.5689.1813.9650.6646.3610.7304.0Haryana355.9357.1319.3350.2268.7291.3136.0Himachal Pradesh 59.867.673.162.548.958.431.2Jammu & Kashmir52.053.648.551.640.747.125.7Jharkhand306.2390.6524.2383.1479.8321.7113.5Karnataka358.7393.2461.3362.6331.6338.3196.0Kerala281.3267.2165.3257.5144.8251.0100.0Madhya Pradesh 388.4436.1569.5392.5384.0357.5185.5Maharashtra709.1769.9918.0729.6737.1660.2315.3North East?93.595.573.889.655.786.938.8Odisha 255.1302.0387.5287.6321.7249.1119.7Punjab227.4249.4298.5240.4246.1196.8117.2Rajasthan478.4529.3662.8486.8424.0473.3462.1Tamil Nadu685.8724.1717.2669.3510.8632.3265.2Uttar Pradesh 582.2650.9876.0642.1715.8578.9457.7Uttarakhand 37.945.561.041.643.037.325.9West Bengal392.9430.3498.7414.9425.2359.6180.9Total7216.88009.19430.37560.17325.26787.93779.5?Including Telangana?Excluding Assam Table S11: PM2.5 emissions by State/regionState/region2018 legislation scenarioAdvanced control scenarioSustainable development scenario2015203020502030205020302050Andhra Pradesh?431.6377.5430.9314.7187.4121.991.1Assam130.290.962.981.036.122.918.0Bihar396.0277.7175.7251.3107.265.242.3Chhattisgarh212.7246.3327.3192.1128.880.940.7Delhi25.119.022.518.418.58.410.7Goa9.89.413.18.18.04.63.8Gujarat332.8255.9294.8221.0172.9107.889.1Haryana130.692.189.981.355.729.121.8Himachal Pradesh 30.227.331.122.813.89.67.7Jammu & Kashmir40.629.923.926.815.38.36.8Jharkhand277.6364.3550.2261.6183.6138.631.7Karnataka279.9230.8253.6200.0137.180.663.3Kerala134.993.463.485.043.128.121.1Madhya Pradesh 368.8280.3252.6242.5133.481.757.9Maharashtra509.0414.5463.8357.4272.6154.3120.6North East?64.745.735.140.120.112.410.0Odisha 280.6265.6324.7219.3140.988.977.1Punjab124.2107.7123.692.170.732.029.7Rajasthan357.0293.7293.1250.4156.072.671.2Tamil Nadu312.1237.5250.5214.3156.991.791.6Uttar Pradesh 820.8677.2635.4597.4379.6152.2123.8Uttarakhand 37.826.925.323.613.47.87.9West Bengal445.2379.4400.4321.8190.1112.778.6Total5752.34842.95143.74123.02641.21512.41116.5?Including Telangana?Excluding Assam Table S12: Ammonia (NH3) emissions by State/regionState/region2018 legislation scenarioAdvanced control scenarioSustainable development scenario2015203020502030205020302050Andhra Pradesh?714.0924.91154.6817.8872.7710.0585.4Assam187.4207.9250.8189.8202.4170.9154.6Bihar501.1634.7750.0568.9585.7501.5421.7Chhattisgarh201.3234.6274.0213.8222.9193.2170.8Delhi19.826.629.826.228.425.026.4Goa5.05.97.45.35.84.63.8Gujarat403.1527.6612.2484.3507.4438.5394.4Haryana334.4456.1541.7397.3396.6197.6216.1Himachal Pradesh 56.667.178.163.569.259.860.3Jammu & Kashmir98.6124.5148.0116.9128.6109.1109.1Jharkhand171.8198.9248.7183.7207.4170.4163.6Karnataka383.5444.4540.4392.6410.2339.3277.5Kerala61.556.462.453.355.049.747.1Madhya Pradesh 555.9666.5770.6613.8641.1558.2509.8Maharashtra623.5760.9909.8680.0708.1595.4499.0North East?84.697.3121.187.594.577.268.5Odisha 286.8326.6382.5300.8317.2275.0251.2Punjab342.9439.3521.0374.8364.2155.3172.9Rajasthan535.1663.1766.7604.4624.1414.8459.5Tamil Nadu400.6514.7666.5456.2506.5397.4339.9Uttar Pradesh 1327.71686.91965.41503.61518.4886.8975.8Uttarakhand 76.492.0107.184.588.576.869.9West Bengal556.3688.5842.3620.2663.0551.5481.5Total7927.79845.411751.28839.09217.96958.56459.0?Including Telangana?Excluding Assam References ADDIN ZOTERO_BIBL {"uncited":[],"omitted":[],"custom":[]} CSL_BIBLIOGRAPHY Amann, M., Purohit, P., Bhanarkar, A.D., Bertok, I., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Cofala, J., Heyes, C., Kiesewetter, G., Klimont, Z., Liu, J., Majumdar, D., Nguyen, B., Rafaj, P., Rao, P.S., Sander, R., Sch?pp, W., Srivastava, A., Vardhan, B.H., 2017. 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