CarTalk/BestRide poll results - Find New & Used Cars for Sale

CarTalk/BestRide poll results

Does Your Ride Predict Your Vote? Dan Fortunato

February 15, 2016

Contents

1 General information

2

2 Summary

2

3 Brand popularity

3

3.1 What are the most popular brands per candidate? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3

3.2 What are the top models per candidate? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4

3.3 How do the most popular models compare? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6

4 What does the average car for a candidate look like?

7

5 How does car class compare?

8

5.1 Electric cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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5.2 Luxury cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8

5.3 Age of cars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8

1

1 General information

The poll was dominated by votes for Bernie and Hillary, due to the NPR online-only nature of the poll. Here's the overall poll breakdown.

Candidate

Percentage of votes

Bernie Sanders

48.84%

Hillary Clinton

24.25%

Donald Trump

6.68%

Ted Cruz

4.41%

Marco Rubio

4.45%

Jill Stein

3.11%

John Kasich

2.07%

Ben Carson

2.03%

Jeb Bush

1.16%

Chris Christie

1.15%

Gary Johnson

0.87%

Carly Fiorina

0.81%

Rick Santorum

0.10%

Roque De La Fuente 0.08%

Jim Gilmore

0.02%

This skewing affects how many data points we have to go off of for each candidate, but doesn't affect trends we see necessarily, since we normalize the data to account for this. To find many of the trends discussed below, I compute probabilities for a subset of the data and compare it to those same probabilities over the whole dataset. This involves computing a z-score and p-value that quantifies the statistical significance of differences we see between the two distributions. When I say something is statistically significant below, I am usually using the metric of p < 0.05. I've also dropped the candidates or cars that only got a couple votes, so that their small sample sizes don't skew things.

I'll also say something like "electric car owners are more likely to support Hillary Clinton relative to the background population." This does not mean that electric car owners support Hillary more than Bernie. This means that the percentage of votes for Hillary among electric car owners is greater than the percentage of votes for Hillary among the entire poll population, and that this difference is statistically significant.

2 Summary

? Bernie Sanders supporters are statistically more likely to drive Honda, Subaru, or Volvo, while Hillary Clinton supporters are statistically more likely drive Toyota, Lexus, and Acura. Both are statistically less likely to drive Ford, but Bernie's disfavor of the 1% shows in that his supporters are unlikely to drive Lexus too.

? Supporters of Republican candidates (specifically Trump, Cruz, and Rubio) are more likely to drive truck brands like Ford, Chevrolet, or Dodge, and less likely to drive Toyotas. Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and John Kasich supporters are more likely to drive higher-end brands.

2

? Bernie supporters drive Honda Fits, Subaru Foresters, and Volvo 240s, as expected.

? Prius owners support Hillary Clinton 40% more than the general population, and support Ted Cruz 126% more than the general population. Similarly, Dodge owners favor Trump 50% more than the general population.

? Toyota Camry drivers are more statistically likely to support a Democrat, and Honda Accord and Ford Fusion drivers are more likely to support a Republican.

? Supporters of democratic and green party candidates (Jill Stein, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders) drive more fuel-efficient cars than supporters of Republican candidates (Carly Fiorina, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz) on average. Stein supporters clearly live up to the Green party name. Ben Carson supporters also tended to drive more fuel-efficient cars, in line with Hillary and Bernie, but this could be slightly skewed by the smaller population of votes for him and the fact that he had multiple Tesla owners (whose MPG was set at 100).

? Sanders, Cruz, and Clinton supporters drive the cheapest cars on average, and Fiorina, Kasich, and Stein supporters drive the most expensive cars on average.

? Electric car owners are more statistically likely to support a Democrat. They are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than the general population is, and less likely to support Ted Cruz.

? Luxury car owners are twice as likely to support Carly Fiorina and 50% more likely to support Marco Rubio as the general population is. They are about 20% likely to support Bernie Sanders and 20% more likely to support Hillary Clinton.

? Owner of older cars (pre-2000) are more likely to support Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, and less likely to support Hillary Clinton, relative to the background population. Owners of newer cars (post-2000) are more likely to support Hillary Clinton.

3 Brand popularity

3.1 What are the most popular brands per candidate?

Here's a breakdown of the top brands by candidate, normalized by overall brand popularity.

Candidate Ben Carson Bernie Sanders Carly Fiorina Chris Christie

Most statistically likely brands THINK Chevrolet Aston Martin Honda Subaru Volvo Porsche Ford Suzuki Mercury Cadillac BMW

Most statistically unlikely brands Subaru Volkswagen Mazda Lexus Ford Buick Toyota Honda Volkswagen Honda Toyota Kia

3

Dodge Donald Trump Ford

Pontiac

Gary Johnson

Jeep Land Rover

Dodge

Toyota Hillary Clinton Lexus

Acura

Jeb Bush

Ford Studebaker

Oldsmobile

Jill Stein

Toyota DeSoto

Lamborghini

John Kasich

Infiniti Acura

BMW

Marco Rubio

GMC Lexus

Ford

Ted Cruz

Chevrolet GMC

Mercury

Toyota Honda Volkswagen Toyota Lexus Mercedes-Benz Chevrolet Ford Pontiac Subaru Volvo Kia Honda Subaru Ford Hyundai Saturn Scion Toyota Subaru Kia Toyota Volkswagen Volvo

3.2 What are the top models per candidate?

Within those top brands, we can look at the top performing models for each candidate.

Candidate

Most statistically likely models

THINK City

Ben Carson

Chevrolet Corvette

Aston Martin Virage

Honda Fit

Bernie Sanders Subaru Forester

4

Volvo 240

Carly Fiorina

Porsche Boxster Ford Mustang

Suzuki Samurai

Chris Christie

Mercury Monterey Cadillac Escalade EXT

BMW 525

Dodge Durango Donald Trump Ford Explorer

Pontiac Grand Prix

Gary Johnson

Jeep Wrangler Land Rover Discovery

Dodge Charger

Toyota RAV4 Hillary Clinton Lexus RX 350

Acura RDX

Jeb Bush

Ford Taurus Studebaker Avanti

Oldsmobile Intrigue

John Kasich

Infiniti J30 Acura NSX

BMW Z4

Marco Rubio

GMC Canyon Lexus GS 300

Ford Fusion

Ted Cruz

Chevrolet Silverado GMC 1500

Mercury Sable

5

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