Forecasting Population Changes in Croatia until 2050



Forecasting Population Changes in Croatia until 2050

Ante Rozga, Ph.D.

University of Split, Croatia

E-mail: rozga@efst.hr

Keywords: population, mortality, life expectancy, immigration.

Abstract:

Croatia has undergone dramatic demographic changes in recent years. Number of population felt from from 4,540,641 in 1991 to 4,422,248 in 2003. This is partially the consequence of the war, but there has been a downward trend for decades. Number of live births fell from 76,156 in 1960 to just under 40,000 in 2003, a drop of 47,5%, which is among the biggest in Europe. The number of deaths increased from 41,361 in 1960 to 50,569 in 2003. Using an optimistic scenario, we would expect 4,388,085 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. Infant mortality rate would fall from 11.46 in 1991 to 3.65 in 2050. Life expectancy would rise from from 69.51 to 78.47 years. Deaths per 1,000 population would remain steady, from 12.82 in 1991 to 13.01 in 2050. This is a projection if some measures are taken to stimulate population growth If these measures are taken but proven unsuccessful, the worst scenario would be 3,350,000 people living in Croatia in the year 2050. The number of people over 65 years of age would outnumber those under 15, posing a big problem for Croatian economy. In this scenario there would be lack of work force, and the emigration policy should be employed.

Key words: population, mortality, life expectancy, immigration.

1. Introduction

Population changes became very important issue for all countries in the world. Some of them worry about enormous (sometimes uncontrolable) population rise, the others about population decline. For both scenarios there are lot of concerning issues. For a big rise in population there could be problems regarding food shortages and nature devastation. Countries who experience ageing and declining of the population are mostly developed, but also there is a number of former socialist countries.

The ageing of the population pose a big problem for the economy, because of shortage of workforce and making a burden for pension funds. The life expectancy in those countries has been substantially extended due to ever rising living standards and the achievements of medicine. Those counties are mostly European, the Croatia among them. Due to constant emigration process since the end of nineteen century and three wars in twentieth century, Croatia has lost lot of young population, thus decreasing the fertility base for further growth. This was fueled further by temporary emigration for economic reasons, but in many cases temporary emigration became permanent one, particularly for the second and third generation of emigrants.

Being citizens of socialist country until 1990, Croats were allowed to travel abroad unlimited, contrary to other socialist countries. This was also reason for greater emigration of young people. Substantial number of emigrants were politically motivated, particularly after the second world war.

2. Population history of Croatia.

Figure 1.

| |Number of population |Indices |Average annual growth |Population density per |

|Year | |1857=100 |rate between censuses, % |km2 |

|1857. |2 181 499 |100,0 |- |38,6 |

|1869. |2 398 292 |109,9 |0,87 |42,4 |

|1880. |2 506 228 |114,9 |0,37 |44,3 |

|1890. |2 854 558 |130,9 |1,31 |50,5 |

|1900. |3 161 456 |144,9 |1,03 |55,9 |

|1910. |3 460 584 |158,7 |0,91 |61,2 |

|1921. |3 443 375 |157,8 |-0,05 |60,9 |

|1931. |3 785 455 |173,5 |0,95 |67,0 |

|1948. |3 779 858 |173,2 |-0,01 |66,9 |

|1953. |3 936 022 |180,4 |0,81 |69,6 |

|1961. |4 159 696 |190,7 |0,69 |73,6 |

|1971. |4 426 221 |203,0 |0,62 |78,3 |

|1981. |4 601 469 |210,9 |0,39 |81,4 |

|1991. |4 784 265 |219,3 |0,39 |84,6 |

|2001.1) |4 512 652 |206,9 |-0,19 |79,8 |

|2001.2) |4 437 460 |203,4 |-0,17 |78,4 |

|2002.3) |4 443 000 | | | |

|2003.3) |4 442 000 | | | |

1) Data were evaluated by applying the definition of the total population given in the Census 2001. In the 1991 Census, data on duration of temporary presence in the Republic of Croatia as well as data on traffic and economic connections of persons working or temporarily residing abroad with members of their households in the country were not collected.

2) The joint recommendations of the EU Economic Commission for Europe and the EU Statistical Office EUROSTAT were relevant for the Census 2001.

3) Estimate.

Midyear population , by Age and Sex in 2000.

|Total, all ages 4,410,830 2,127,016 2,283,814 100.0 100.0 100.0 |

| 0- 4 250,361 128,653 121,708 5.7 6.0 5.3 |

| 5- 9 255,613 131,184 124,429 5.8 6.2 5.4 |

| 10- 14 267,849 136,907 130,942 6.1 6.4 5.7 |

| 15- 19 303,865 155,377 148,488 6.9 7.3 6.5 |

| 20- 24 310,253 157,541 152,712 7.0 7.4 6.7 |

| 25- 29 295,159 149,801 145,358 6.7 7.0 6.4 |

| 30- 34 292,421 147,162 145,259 6.6 6.9 6.4 |

| 35- 39 315,812 158,272 157,540 7.2 7.4 6.9 |

| 40- 44 346,512 174,251 172,261 7.9 8.2 7.5 |

| 45- 49 347,818 177,101 170,717 7.9 8.3 7.5 |

| 50- 54 289,349 147,131 142,218 6.6 6.9 6.2 |

| 55- 59 218,382 104,082 114,300 5.0 4.9 5.0 |

| 60- 64 249,233 112,466 136,767 5.7 5.3 6.0 |

| 65- 69 241,594 102,896 138,698 5.5 4.8 6.1 |

| 70- 74 192,062 74,130 117,932 4.4 3.5 5.2 |

| 75- 79 133,617 41,649 91,968 3.0 2.0 4.0 |

| 80+ 100,930 28,413 72,517 2.3 1.3 3.2 |

Median age in 2000 was 38.6 for both sexes, 36.8 for males and 40.4 for females. Sex ratio was 93.1.

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3. Forecasting population in 2050

|Total, all ages 3,864,201 1,855,313 2,008,888 100.0 100.0 100.0 |

| 0- 4 169,960 87,231 82,729 4.4 4.7 |

|4.1 |

| 5- 9 173,030 88,796 84,234 4.5 4.8 |

|4.2 |

| 10- 14 174,653 89,619 85,034 4.5 4.8 4.2|

| 15- 19 178,700 91,647 87,053 4.6 4.9 4.3|

| 20- 24 188,119 96,314 91,805 4.9 5.2 4.6|

| 25- 29 199,999 102,147 97,852 5.2 5.5 4.9 |

| 30- 34 209,062 106,522 102,540 5.4 5.7 5.1 |

| 35- 39 215,656 109,584 106,072 5.6 5.9 5.3 |

| 40- 44 218,653 110,752 107,901 5.7 6.0 5.4 |

| 45- 49 215,309 108,520 106,789 5.6 5.8 5.3 |

| 50- 54 256,710 128,476 128,234 6.6 6.9 6.4 |

| 55- 59 260,242 128,662 131,580 6.7 6.9 6.5 |

| 60- 64 261,883 126,829 135,054 6.8 6.8 6.7 |

| 65- 69 275,679 130,250 145,429 7.1 7.0 7.2 |

| 70- 74 253,966 115,175 138,791 6.6 6.2 6.9 |

| 75- 79 208,014 90,117 117,897 5.4 4.9 5.9 |

| 80+ 404,566 144,672 259,894 10.5 7.8 12.9 |

Median age in 2050 would be 49.7 years for both sexes, 47.1 for males and 52.0 for females. This is substantial increase from 38.6 median age in 2000. Sex ratio would be 92.4, compared with 93.1 in the year 2000. The number of people in the group (0 - 4) year would fall dramatically, by 32.11%. The number of people ageing 65 or more would increase by 70.9 % and would account for almost one third of population.

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1995 4496683, 53870, 55489, -52251, -1619, -53870

2000 4410830, 43755, 50239, 13674, -6484, 7190

2005 4495904, 43026, 51163, 7104, -8137, -1033

2010 4486881, 43209, 53080, 7134, -9871, -2737

2015 4464844, 42193, 54382, 6206, -12189, -5983

2020 4427282, 40864, 55120, 5357, -14256, -8899

2025 4374007, 38710, 55725, 4461, -17015, -12554

2030 4300965, 36515, 56687, 3570, -20172, -16602

2035 4209297, 35232, 57752, 2652, -22520, -19868

2040 4103751, 34882, 58807, 1765, -23925, -22160

2045 3988061, 34497, 59382, 877, -24885, -24008

2050 3864201, 33734, 59122, 0, -25388, -25388

REFERENCES

2003 Statistical Yearbook, Central Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb. Croatia.

Hinde, A. (1998): Demographic Methods, Edward Arnolds. London.

Keyfitz, N. (1985): Applied Mathematical Demography, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg.

Newell, C. (1990): Methods and Models in Demography. Guilford Press. New York.

Preston, S.H., Heuveline P., Guillot M. and Guillon M. (2000): Demography: Measuring and Modelling Population Processes. Blackwell Publishers. Oxford.

U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. Washington D.C. U.S.A.

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