Measuring Public Opinion



Measuring Public Opinion

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In recent years, poll-taking has increased in scope and importance. Pollsters want to determine what the American public is thinking. The results are widely reported in the media, and in a number of cases polls themselves are newsworthy. The qualities that are measured in polls include:

▪ How intense people are in their beliefs and attitudes

▪ The real wants and needs of individuals that can be translated into policy

▪ Whether public opinion on any given issue is constant or changing

▪ The extent to which the public is polarized or has a consensus on any given issue

Using scientific methodology and computer technology, professional pollsters such as Gallup, CNN, and daily newspapers have mastered the art of measuring public opinion. In presidential election years, pollsters aggregate (take the average) all the tracking polls. When looking at political polls, these pollsters consider:

▪ Who conducts the poll—there is a real difference between a candidate who reports polling results and a neutral organization that conducts a poll

▪ The sample size—make sure that a random sample was obtained

▪ If a clear distinction is made regarding the population sample

▪ When the poll was conducted

▪ The poll methodology

▪ The sampling error, which gives the poll statistical validity (+/- 3 percent is usually acceptable)

▪ How clearly the questions were worded

How Polls Are Conducted

Sample: a small proportion of people who are chosen in a survey to be representative of the whole

Random Sampling: the key technique employed by sophisticated survey researchers which operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal probability of being selected for the sample

Sampling Error: the level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll

The Role of Polls in American Democracy

Polls help politicians detect public preferences.

But critics say polls make politicians think more about following than leading public

Exit Polls: used by the media to predict election day winners

• May discourage people from voting

• 2000 presidential election in Florida

Question wording may affect survey results

What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information

Americans don’t know much about politics.

Americans may know their basic beliefs but not how that affects policies of the government.

The Decline of Trust in Government

– Since 1964, trust in government has declined.

– Trust in government has gone up somewhat since September 11, 2001.

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Tasks:

1. Read 20 Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results (on my webpage), by the National Council on Public Polls.

2. Below is a partial list of organizations that conduct polling:

Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen Reports, New York Times, Bloomberg, Fox News, Wall Street Journal, CNN Polling Center, ABC News

Visit the websites and review the polls available on various issues.

3. Select 5 recent polls that you find interesting. Try to cross-check them with similar polls from other organizations. Can you determine whether the poll meets the requirements of the NCPP (from 1 above)? How might the wording of questions have skewed the poll?

4. Enter your findings in the chart below and be prepared to discuss in class. This assignment will be collected and graded.

Sample of Public Opinion Polls

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Polling Date of Subject of Results of Valid? What other

Organization Poll Poll Poll info would help?

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Grade ____/5 points

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