Study on understanding the causes of biodiversity …

[Pages:206]European Commission Directorate-General for Environment

Study on understanding the causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework

In the context of the Framework Contract No. DG ENV/G.1/FRA/2006/0073 Specific Contract No. DG.ENV.G.1/FRA/2006/0073

Final Report

Allister Slingenberg, Leon Braat, Henny van der Windt, Koen Rademaekers, Lisa Eichler, Kerry Turner

Member of Consortium

October 2009

Authors: Allister Slingenberg, ECORYS Leon Braat, Wageningen University / Alterra Henny van der Windt, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen (RUG) Lisa Eichler, ECORYS Kerry Turner, University of East Anglia

Quality Control: Koen Rademaekers, ECORYS

Contributing authors: Salim Morsy, ECORYS Associate Sil Boeve, ECORYS

Disclaimer: all opinions formulated in this report have been made by ECORYS and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission.

ECORYS Nederland BV P.O. Box 4175 3006 AD Rotterdam Watermanweg 44 3067 GG Rotterdam The Netherlands

T +31 (0)10 453 88 00 F +31 (0)10 453 07 68 E netherlands@ W Registration no. 24316726

ECORYS Macro & Sector Policies T +31 (0)10 453 87 53 F +31 (0)10 452 36 60

Table of contents

Table of contents

3

List of Figures

7

List of Tables

11

Executive Summary

13

1 Introduction

17

1.1 Background

17

1.1.1 Context

17

1.1.2 Current state of play

18

1.1.3 The debate on economics and biodiversity in a nutshell

20

1.2 Current research on biodiversity loss

21

1.2.1 Latest biodiversity research and models

21

1.2.2 Biodiversity frameworks and assessments

23

1.3 Approach

25

2 Direct causes of biodiversity loss

29

2.1 Introduction

29

2.2 Land-use change

33

2.2.1 Agricultural expansion: growing food production in developing

countries

34

2.2.2 Agricultural expansion: the case of biofuels

34

2.2.3 Infrastructure development

38

2.2.4 Deforestation

40

2.3 Pollution

42

2.3.1 Air pollution

42

2.3.2 Water pollution

42

2.3.3 Marine pollution from oil spills

43

2.4 Unsustainable natural resource use

47

2.4.1 Fisheries

47

2.4.2 Mining

49

2.4.3 Commercial wood extraction

51

2.5 Climate change

54

2.6 Invasive alien species

56

3 Biodiversity and the policy assessment framework

59

3.1 Introduction

59

Understanding the causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework

3

3.2 Economic drivers

59

3.2.1 Market failures

59

3.2.2 Economic structure, size and growth

60

3.2.3 Demand for ecosystem services

61

3.2.4 Macroeconomic factors

63

3.2.5 Trade-related biodiversity-loss

63

3.2.6 Technology

64

3.3 Demographic drivers

65

3.3.1 Population size

65

3.3.2 Public attitudes and individual behaviour

67

3.4 Institutional drivers

67

3.4.1 Property rights

68

3.4.2 Governance

71

3.4.3 Formal policies and their effects on biodiversity

73

3.5 Policy assessment applied: some examples

76

3.5.1 A closer look at the scaling mismatch and the effects of globalisation

on biodiversity in coastal ecosystems

76

3.5.2 Likely future effects of increased biodiversity protection efforts

77

3.5.3 A case study of biodiversity implications of biofuels policies

83

4 Bottlenecks and solutions

87

4.1.1 A closer look at possible marine ecosystem specific bottlenecks and

solutions

93

4.1.2 A closer look at the role of governance as a potential bottleneck

95

4.2 Conclusions and recommendations

99

5 Annex 1: Case studies on coastal ecosystems and biodiversity loss

101

5.1 Introduction

101

5.1.1 The DPSIR framework applied to coastal ecosystems

103

5.2 Case study 1a: Beach ecosystems in Italy

104

5.2.1 Management of beaches in Riviera del Beigua (Liguria)

107

5.3 Case study 1b: Mangrove ecosystems in Thailand

109

5.4 Case study 1c: Coastal wetlands in England, UK

114

5.4.1 Freshwater coastal wetlands: The Norfolk and Suffolk Broads

117

5.4.2 Saltmarsh ecosystems in coastal Eastern England, UK

123

6 Annex 2: Case studies on marine ecosystems and biodiversity loss

127

6.1 Introduction

127

6.2 Case study 2a: The North Sea

128

6.2.1 Direct causes of decrease of biodiversity

129

6.2.2 Underlying causes

131

6.2.3 Possible solutions

134

6.3 Case study 2b: the Coral Triangle

136

6.3.1 Direct causes of decrease of biodiversity

137

6.3.2 Underlying causes

138

6.3.3 Possible solutions

141

6.4 Case study 2c: the Arctic Ocean

142

6.4.1 Direct causes of decrease of biodiversity

143

6.4.2 Underlying causes

145

6.4.3 Possible solutions

148

7 Annex 3: Case studies on forest ecosystems and biodiversity loss

151

7.1 Case study 3a: the Congo Basin

157

7.1.1 Direct causes of deforestation

158

7.1.2 Underlying causes of deforestation

162

7.1.3 Actors and policy framework

175

7.1.4 Possible solutions

176

7.2 Case study 3b: the Amazon forest ecosystem

177

7.2.1 Direct causes of deforestation

178

7.2.2 Underlying causes of deforestation

183

7.2.3 Actors and policy framework

188

7.2.4 Possible solutions

189

7.3 Case study 3c: Forest ecosystems in Tanzania

190

7.3.1 Direct causes of biodiversity loss

191

7.3.2 Underlying causes of biodiversity loss

191

7.3.3 Actors and policy framework

192

7.3.4 Possible solutions

196

8 Bibliography

199

Understanding the causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework

5

List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Mapping the link between biodiversity, ecosystem services, and

human wellbeing

18

Figure 1.2 Worldwide depiction of threatened biodiversity hotspots

19

Figure 1.3 Trends in biodiversity from 1700-2050

19

Figure 1.4 Global biodiversity hotspots and development levels

20

Figure 1.5 The drivers-pressures-states-impacts-responses (DPSIR) framework

applied to biodiversity

24

Figure 1.6 DPSIR framework with examples

25

Figure 1.7 Linking non-policy and policy-related causes of biodiversity loss

26

Figure 1.8 Socioeconomic biodiversity pressures and drivers ? a conceptual

model

27

Figure 1.9 Overview of the direct and underlying causes of biodiversity loss and

the policy assessment framework

28

Figure 2.1 Loss of biodiversity with continued agricultural expansion, pollution,

climate change and infrastructure development

29

Figure 2.2 Development of mean species abundance worldwide in the baseline

scenario from 2000 to 2050 and the contribution to this decline from

various environmental pressures

30

Figure 2.3 The relative significance of different direct causes for projected

biodiversity loss in South East Asia, 2000-2050 (GLOBIO 3.0).

31

Figure 2.4 Main direct drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems

32

Figure 2.5 General biofuel pathway with inputs and environmental impacts

36

Figure 2.6 Example of displacement mechanism causing indirect deforestation

37

Figure 2.7 Large tanker spills since 1984

44

Figure 2.8 Spawning biomass of Atlantic bluefin tuna, measured until 2007

(blue) and extrapolated till 2012 (red)

48

Figure 2.9 International trade of forest products

52

Figure 2.10 Woodfuel consumption in Africa

54

Figure 3.1 Economic worldwide benefits coming from biodiversity

62

Figure 3.2 Relationships among representative intermediate services, final

services and benefits

63

Figure 3.3 Possible policy effects of trade on biodiversity in developing countries 64

Figure 3.4 Projected population growth 2000-2030

66

Figure 3.5 Worldwide protected area for 2009 and additional protected area

according to biodiversity scenario for 2030

79

Figure 3.6 Congo basin countries: current protected area (2009) and additional

protected area according to biodiversity scenario for 2030 with

MODIS forest cover (2004)

80

Figure 3.7 Effects of biodiversity scenarios under BAU1 scenario without

incentive payments on deforestation rates in the 6 Congo Basin

Understanding the causes of biodiversity loss and the policy assessment framework

7

countries considering versus not considering projected protection

areas, 2010, 2020 and 2030

81

Figure 3.8 Effects of protected area on avoided deforestation (forest cover loss in

percent) in the Congo Basin for 2030

82

Figure 3.9 Sources for bioethanol and biodiesel production in Europe by 2020

84

Figure 4.1 Worldwide percentage of protected versus non-protected forest area

by forest type

98

Figure 4.2 Illegal logging and corruption linkage worldwide

98

Figure 5.1 Classification of coastal and marine ecosystem services

102

Figure 5.2 DPSIR for coastal ecosystems

103

Figure 5.3 Key anthropogenic pressures on sandy beaches

105

Figure 5.4 Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework applied

to beach ecosystems

106

Figure 5.5 Marginal benefits of retaining and converting natural habitats,

expressed as Net Present Value in 2000 US$/ha

112

Figure 5.6 Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework applied to

wetlands

116

Figure 5.7 Direct and indirect pressures and related use conflicts in the Broads 117

Figure 6.1 North Sea fish stocks, UK, spawning stock biomass for three fish

species (thousand tonnes)

129

Figure 6.2 Trends in spawning cod biomass and in fishing mortality

130

Figure 6.3 Arctic Sea ice extent (2007)

144

Figure 6.4 Arctic Sea ice extent (2009)

145

Figure 7.1 Number of native tree species per country

152

Figure 7.2 Designated forest functions, globally, 2005 (%)

152

Figure 7.3 Trends in forest area by region, 1990-2005 (million hectares)

155

Figure 7.4 Forests designated for conservation, 1990-2005 (million hectares)

156

Figure 7.5 Number of native tree species in Africa

158

Figure 7.6 Woodfuel consumption in Africa

160

Figure 7.7: Estimated deforestation rates in the 6 Congo Basin countries for 2010,

2020 and 2030 for BAU 1 Scenario (A) and BAU 2 Scenario (B)

without incentive payments (business as usual under constant

governance)

168

Figure 7.8: Effects of incentive payment (carbon price in USD/tC) on deforestation

rates in the Congo basin (6 countries) in 2010, 2020 and 2030 under

BAU 1 Scenario (A) and BAU 2 Scenario (B)

169

Figure 7.9: Congo Basin: change in forest cover 2000 versus 2030 according to

FAO scenario (BAU)

171

Figure 7.10: Congo Basin: difference in forest cover in 2030 according to FAO

BAU scenario and REDD scenario (10 $/tC)

171

Figure 7.11: Effects of incentive payment (carbon price in USD/tC) on

deforestation rate in the Congo Basin (6 countries) with governance

development scenario in 2010, 2020 and 2030 of deforestation BAU 1

Scenario (A) and BAU 2 Scenario (B)

172

Figure 7.12: Forest cover projections under different governance scenarios, 2000

and 2030

173

Figure 7.13 Diagram depicting interlinkages of global and local direct and

underlying causes of Amazonian deforestation

178

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