Up Against a Full House - University of Connecticut



Up Against a Full House

Amateurs Pack Poker Tourney,

Changing Odds for the Pros;

Just $10,000 and a Dream

By GEORGE ANDERS

Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

May 21, 2004; Page W1

David Ulliott is a onetime burglar and nightclub bouncer who now runs a small jewelry store in England. John Aglialoro is chairman of Cybex International Inc., a publicly traded fitness-equipment company. Chris Moneymaker is a restaurant accountant who lives in Spring Hill, Tenn.

Ordinarily, there's no way these men would want to spend a week in nonstop contact with each other. But starting tomorrow all of them will convene at the Binion's Horseshoe Casino in Las Vegas for the championship of the 35th World Series of Poker. Like thousands of other contestants, they each will buy $10,000 of chips and will then try to bankrupt their rivals during marathon sessions that run until next Friday. The ultimate winner gets a prize that could top $5 million.

A generation ago, the World Series of Poker was a small-time event that attracted barely 100 contestants. Players typically were backroom hustlers from states where gambling wasn't legal. They made most of their money in ways that the Internal Revenue Service never heard about.

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The current poker craze has changed everything. This year, at least 2,000 players are expected to enter, more than double last year's record turnout of 839. The Horseshoe -- an aging downtown casino with low ceilings and tattered maroon carpeting -- has briefly become the place to be. Camera crews from ESPN are bustling about. Fans are lining up for gamblers' autographs. Entrants are so plentiful that only half the players will be able to sit down tomorrow at one of the casino's 1,000 seats; the rest will have to wait until Sunday.

While full-time gamblers regard this week as the high point of their year, more than a few venture capitalists, computer scientists and even Hollywood actors will be squeezing around the tables, too. Enormous numbers of Internet-poker enthusiasts also are coming, many of whom gained cheap seats at the World Series by winning giant online tournaments run as marketing stunts for various Web casinos.

Veteran poker pros -- who originally pegged all these newcomers as easy marks -- now are shuddering at the notion of a field so huge that it will take an eerie run of luck for anyone to prevail. "It's going to be pretty random," says 70-year-old Doyle Brunson, a two-time winner of the World Series championship in the 1970s. "To win it now would be like winning the lottery."

Consolation Prizes

Mr. Ulliott, a top British player, takes the upstarts' challenge even more personally. "Everyone's trying to pull some aggressive move on you," he says. "They've seen us play on TV, and they'd love to bust us out. Half the time they don't even know if they've made the right move." Usually, Mr. Ulliott figures, the odds will be overwhelmingly in his favor. But if he has to withstand a half-dozen or more showdowns that could ruin him or his opponent on a single hand, eventually bad luck may catch up to him.

Last year, Mr. Moneymaker won the World Series championship despite having almost no tournament experience beyond the Internet. The year before, first prize went to Robert Varkonyi, a developer of Wall Street trading systems. Although 90% of this year's contestants will go home empty-handed -- and most of the rest will win only small consolation prizes -- the dream of winning millions is luring contestants from as far away as Finland, Russia and Costa Rica.

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|Knowing when to hold: David Ulliott (left), a top British| |

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Does any full-time gambler have what it takes to win? Will this be the year that someone with a high-profile day job -- who is playing just for the fun of it -- triumphs? Or are the odds once again in favor of the blue-collar strivers who have honed their games playing Internet poker round the clock? Here's one way to handicap each group's chances:

The lifelong gamblers: There's a fierce debate under way among top pros about the best strategy for giant tournaments such as the World Series. Some contend that it's wisest to play cautiously the first few rounds, winning a few ultra-safe hands and mainly avoiding the early shakeouts, where as many as three-quarters of the players can go bust. Once the field has thinned out, then they feel more comfortable taking chances.

Others argue for taking big risks early. Their goal: Build up a huge stack of chips that will let them steamroll weaker players by making bullying bets with impunity, when it's still unclear who has the better hand. Such players may go broke in the first hour. But if their early forays pay off, they could be in command for the rest of the tournament.

Among the high-risk players worth watching are Gus Hansen of Denmark, Layne Flack of Las Vegas, and Kiril Gerasimov of Russia. Mixing styles constantly is Phil Ivey, one of the few African-American players on the pro circuit. And in the more prudent camp are Howard Lederer, a onetime professional chess player, and T.J. Cloutier, a standout Texas player who has won just about every major event except the World Series championship.

Competing with a style that defies stereotyping is Phil Hellmuth Jr., who won the championship in 1989, when he was just 23 years old. Mr. Hellmuth shows up late for most tournaments, snaps at his opponents, and is known for unprintable outbursts when he loses a few hands that he thinks he should have won. In spite of such antics, he is one of professional poker's top money-winners of all time and is famous for taking apart weaker players in a hurry.

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|Players in the preliminary stages of the 35th World | |

|Series of Poker. These games took place Tuesday at | |

|Binion's Horseshoe Casino in Las Vegas. | |

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Odds-makers in England have made Mr. Hellmuth one of the top three favorites to win the tournament (albeit as a 130:1 long shot). Part of that reflects Mr. Hellmuth's celebrity status as an author, lecturer and poker personality. Still, top opponents give Mr. Hellmuth credit for being able to "read" opponents and to know, sight unseen, what cards they hold, based on the way they bet, the way they sit, and other small clues.

Respectable People: People with real careers insist -- for at least a moment or two -- that they are in Vegas just for the fun of it. "It's like playing a round of golf," says Mr. Aglialoro, the Cybex chairman. "It's a nice way to categorize your skill level at something, but you don't expect it to pay off financially."

Press a little harder, though, and it's clear that many of the interlopers have been putting serious time into their poker games. Mr. Aglialoro made it to the final table in the 1994 championship and ended up in seventh place, winning $43,680. He's glad to share his hard-won lessons from playing with the pros: "If you've got good cards, bet. If you don't have good cards, get out. Players who aren't very good bluff too much."

In a class by himself is Ben Affleck, the Hollywood actor, who in recent months has become a regular at both celebrity poker events and the regular gamblers' tour. Poker pros say that Mr. Affleck's game has improved greatly. Judging by the odds, though, he may have a bit more improving to do; book-makers are quoting him as a 600:1 long shot

The Internet Crowd: For small-time poker players, Internet gambling sites are providing an ever-widening path to the big event. At least a half-dozen sites stage tournaments where players pitch in $100, $50 or even nothing at all for the chance to play for days until a few top finishers are told they have qualified for the World Series championship.

Such tourneys are online stampedes that reward whatever strategies can help a player pull out of the pack fast. Purists regard these events as a mockery of classic, face-to-face poker. But given the enormous size of this year's World Series field, the Internet players may be the best prepared. Besides, they are arriving in such large numbers -- an estimated 850 this year -- that the luckiest are likely to last until the tournament's final stages.

Catching special attention are Internet players from Sweden, Norway and Finland. Most are complete unknowns to U.S. players. But in preliminary events at the World Series, a surprisingly large number of the Nordic online players have been placing in the top 50.

England's Mr. Ulliott says that if he survives the first five days of play and makes it to the final table of nine players on Friday, he expects to see one or two Internet players there as well. He has a plan for rattling them. He will dress all in black. He will put on two huge rings that together spell out his nickname, Devil Fish. "I've been on TV many times," he explains. "I've played for huge sums of money. I'm comfortable at the final table. But they're going to be nervous. And in that case, you've got to scare them."

Write to George Anders at george.anders@

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