Hurricane Katrina August 23-31, 2005

Service Assessment

Hurricane Katrina August 23-31, 2005

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) Silver Spring, Maryland

Cover: NOAA-15 satellite image of Hurricane Katrina at 7:47 a.m. Central Daylight Time, August 29, 2005, just east of New Orleans, Louisiana.

Service Assessment

Hurricane Katrina August 23-31, 2005

June 2006

NOAA's National Weather Service David L. Johnson Brigadier General, USAF (ret.) Assistant Administrator for Weather Services

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Preface

The devastation along the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Katrina was staggering. The physical destruction and personal suffering surmounted that of any U.S. weather disaster in recent history. The loss of life and extraordinary damage made Katrina the costliest hurricane in U.S. history and one of the five deadliest hurricanes to ever strike the U.S. However, without NOAA's National Weather Service forecasts, warnings, communication, outreach, and education, the impacts and loss of life would have been far greater.

I chartered a team to assess NWS performance during the event. The Team found the NWS performed exceptionally well in forecasting, warning, communication, preparedness, and post-storm recovery efforts. This is confirmed by the overwhelming positive response received from users and partners of the NWS.

Our National Hurricane Center predicted the central Gulf Coast, including the New Orleans metropolitan area, would be directly affected by Katrina as a major hurricane about 56 hours before landfall. Forecasts of Katrina's path from NHC were better than long-term average errors and better than the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) 2006 goals established for hurricane track forecasts.

The evacuation rate during Hurricane Katrina was near 80 percent. This is an impressive public response to an approaching threat. This remarkable response resulted from a long-working relationship and open communication between NWS, the emergency management community at all levels, and the media.

While NOAA's National Weather Service performed well in forecasts and services, there is room for improvement. The Assessment Team made 16 recommendations, most of which concern the infrastructure of the NWS such as electrical power, communications, computing systems, and data gathering systems. During extremely difficult working conditions, the ingenuity, dedication, and sheer will of NWS employees enabled the provision of products and services as infrastructure and back-up systems failed. Relying on NWS employees to overcome infrastructure failure is not an ideal solution. The recommendations in this report will be addressed and the 13 best practices will be considered nationwide.

David L. Johnson Brigadier General, USAF (Ret.) Assistant Administrator for Weather Services June 2006

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Table of Contents

Preface................................................................................................................................. ii Service Assessment Team.................................................................................................. iv Acknowledgements............................................................................................................. v Acronyms........................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 Service Assessment Report Introduction......................................................................................................................... 4 Event Overview .................................................................................................................. 5 NWS Forecast and Warning Services................................................................................. 9

National Centers for Environmental Prediction.............................................................. 9 Florida Weather Forecast Offices ................................................................................. 15 Gulf Coast Weather Forecast Offices ........................................................................... 16 Operations Coordination................................................................................................... 23 Continuity of Operations................................................................................................... 26 Support Activities ............................................................................................................. 32 Outreach and Preparedness ............................................................................................... 34 Best Practices .................................................................................................................... 36 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 37 Appendices The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale .............................................................................. A-1 Best Track Analysis for Hurricane Katrina .................................................................... B-1 Tornado Reports Associated with Hurricane Katrina..................................................... C-1

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