Week Five September 13, 2021 2.6 Malthusian Theory 2.5 ...

Population & Migration Patterns & Processes 2.5 Demographic Transition Model 2.6 Malthusian Theory

Week Five September 13, 2021

Welcome to week 5 of the bell ringers! Students will continue to consider how the interplay of environmental, economic, cultural, and political factors influences mortality and fertility, causing changes in population. They will learn specifically about topics 2.5 Demographic Transition Model and 2.6 Malthusian Theory. Materials to use directly with students, formerly known as the 3 for 3s, follow the teacher materials.

A note to teachers new to teaching APHG: These two topics enhance student understanding of the migration topics in unit 2 in addition to several others in later units, including (but not necessarily limited to) 3.5 Historical Causes of Diffusion, 5.4 The Second Agricultural Revolution, 5.5 The Green Revolution, 6.1 The Origin and Influences of Urbanization, 7.1 The Industrial Revolution, 7.2 Economic Sectors and Patterns, and 7.4 Women and Economic Development. If you have access to the Amsco (2nd edition) or the BFW textbook, you may wish to read about these topics to enhance your own understanding and teaching of 2.5 and 2.6. As an alternative, consider listening to this podcast episode: .

Lesson plans related to 2.5 include and . A paid resource ($15) I highly recommend is Earth Matters. It includes all of the paid lesson plans from Population Education plus many other high quality lesson plans and readings related to other units in APHG. An interesting Story Map to have your students work through can be found at .

Lesson plans related to 2.6 include (reading, discussion/debate), (excellent video with questions for discussion), and one that allows students to compare Malthus and Boserup, found here: .

What's where? Why is it there? Why do we care?

2.5 Demographic Transition Model/IMP 2.B.1

FLASHBACK TO PREVIOUS CONTENT: Students must understand how population composition, topic 2.3, is reflected by age-sex graphs and how population dynamics, topic 2.4, are the changes that occur as a country moves through the demographic transition. Common student misconceptions about the DTM include:

that the model is static; rather, the model is a process, so different countries move through the DT at different rates, spending different amounts of time in each stage

that the model correlates perfectly with level of economic development; although changes that cause a country to transition are typically associated with economic development, there are some exceptions. The model was based on western countries, so in general, there is a stronger correlation with economic development in countries that moved through the DT first. This might make an excellent explain the degree question after students have studied development in unit 7: Explain the degree to which a country's stage in the demographic transition reflects its level of economic development.

The DTM and ETM are the first models many students will learn about in APHG. Be sure to discuss the nature and purpose of models: they are imperfect representations of reality that provide a starting point for thinking and learning about a concept. Models have both strengths and limitations and can apply to varying degrees depending on scale, region, place, and moment in time.

Introduce the topic with slide A. Be sure students understand that they're looking at issues on a relatively large scale, such as the national scale, and involving matters of public health. Most will correctly say death rates. Use slides B and C to develop or assess student understanding of the general ways in which birth rates, death rates, and total population change as countries move through the demographic transition. Students could draw the model themselves, or you could print slide B and give it to them.

Q3 from 2010 was related to the demographic transition and was used as inspiration for slide D. The one on the left is the population pyramid for Zambia, and the one on the right is that of the Netherlands. Find suggested answers on the scoring guidelines here by scrolling to page 5:

2.5 Demographic Transition Model/IMP 2.B.1, continued

EXTENSION: Although the concept of a second demographic transition is not part of the CED, teachers and advanced students may be interested in the notion that falling birth rates are not due to delayed childbearing (i.e. childbearing at older ages) but rather to never having children at all. You can read more here: . Advanced students may wish to consider the following after reading the article: Is this a brand new model, or is it an extension of stage 5 or a new stage 6? What information would we need to determine that?

2.5 Demographic Transition Model/IMP 2.B.2

Use slide E to introduce the epidemiological transition. Our World in Data has background and great visuals containing suggested answers to slide E here: . The CED says students must understand the causes of changing death rates as countries move through the demographic transition. Slides F and G develop student understanding of how changing causes of death affect death rates, with a focus on communicable disease (generally causing more deaths at younger ages) vs non communicable diseases (generally causing delayed degenerative diseases that lower death rates as a country moves through the DT and cause deaths at older ages). The graphs on slide F come from Death At the Opposite Ends of the Eurasian Continent: Mortality trends in Taiwan and the Netherlands 1850-1945 by Theo Engelen, John R. Shepherd, and Yang Wen-shan, a book you can find online if you wish to delve into the weeds of the epidemiological transition. The conclusion on pg. 42 is particularly worthwhile reading. Slide G uses Zambia (DT stage 2, with a birth rate of 36 and a death rate of 6, causing a rate of natural increase of 3%) and the Netherlands (DT stage 4, with a birth rate of 10 and a death rate of 10, causing an RNI of 0), the two countries for which population pyramids on slide D are given, to build student understanding of how the epidemiological transition is related to the demographic transition.

2.6 Malthusian Theory/IMP 2.B.3

FLASHBACK TO PREVIOUS CONTENT: In 2.1 Population Distribution, students learned about the different types and uses of population density, including the concept of carrying capacity. In 1.5, they learned about land use and sustainability. You may wish to review both before teaching 2.6. If you are teaching the topic in 45 minute segments over two days, you could spend one day on Malthus and the next on its critiques. If you have only one 45 minute day, use the Malthus/Boserup plan linked on the first page of the bell ringers.

2.6 Malthusian Theory/IMP 2.B.3, continued

"HOOK" SUGGESTION: Play the first few minutes of NPR's Hidden Brain "The Bomb That Didn't Explode" (the sounds of the eight tiny mouse that lived in Universe 25), which you can find here: . Another option is to show the first several minutes about how Malthus's theory inspired the Avengers character of Thanos (spoiler alert) from the Foundation for Economics Education, which you can find here: . The last few minutes are related to the strengths of capitalism and not to Malthusian theory, so you may not want to show the entire video.

Use slides H and/or I to introduce Malthusian theory. Crash Course World History 215 "Population, Sustainability, and Malthus," found at , effectively addresses the Malthusian perspective. Although the CED doesn't specifically state which "critiques" of Malthus to use, most of us teach it by discussing the work of Ester Boserup. Ester Boserup is also notable for her work studying the role of women in economic development. A simple Google search can help you find information about Ester Boserup, or you may wish to use the lesson plan at the link provided in the teacher materials. Be sure to teach about neo-Malthusian perspectives, which are referred to in questions in AP Classroom. I use the video from Retro Report, which discusses Paul Ehrlich's work The Population Bomb, published in 1968. You can find ch. 1 here: . As it's not appropriate for all students, and requires the teacher to contextualize it for students, please read it before sharing it with your students.

Use slides I and/or J to assess student understanding. Slide I represents Malthusian theory and its critiques in graph form. Slide J was adapted from Q2 in 2011, and suggested answers can be found on pages 4-5 here: .

COMING NEXT WEEK: SPATIAL PATTERNS & SOCIETAL CHANGE/TOPICS 2.7-9

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