Instructor - Carey Business School
Managerial Decision Behavior2 CreditsBU.913.611.XX[Day & Time / ex: Monday, 6pm-9pm][Start & End Dates / ex: 3/24/17–5/12/17][Semester / ex: Spring 2017][Location / ex: Washington, DC]Instructor[Full Name]Contact Information[Email Address][Phone Number, ###- ###-#### (Optional)]Office Hours[Please specify the day and time of the 2 hours that will be dedicated to office hours each week. For evening classes, faculty may wish to hold their office hours by phone or email. While faculty are permitted to state “and by appointment,” office hours should not be held exclusively by appointment.]Required Texts & Learning MaterialsThere is no required textbook for this course. Students must purchase a course packet (link forthcoming). Assigned readings are found in the course packet as well as on the course Blackboard site.Course DescriptionManagerial Decision Behavior builds on the normative managerial economics and management science principles addressed in Business Analytics. The course contains two segments. The first segment introduces how principles of classical and Bayesian statistical analysis are used to account for the uncertainty and risks inherent in managers’ decision environments. The second segment of the course examines behavioral principles, showing how the normative tenets of decision making are often systematically influenced by managerial cognitive capabilities, motivational and emotional states, and socio-cultural factors. We use cases and experiential exercises to examine how these influences may be managed to enhance the quality and effectiveness of managerial decisions.Prerequisite(s)This class is restricted to Global MBA students.Learning ObjectivesBy the end of this course, students will be able to: Understand the nature and range of managerial decisions in global organizations.Appreciate the role of research in creating knowledge about managerial decision making and recognize how this knowledge helps create appropriate qualitative and quantitative formulations of managerial decision problems.Understand how the principles and tools of managerial economics relate to managerial decision making under uncertainty.Recognize how cognitive capabilities, motivational and emotional states, and socio-cultural factors influence managerial decision making and how these may drive systematic departures from normative rules. Develop the ability to assess the qualitative implications of managerial decisions and evaluate them for their ethical frames and behavioral feasibility.To view the complete list of Carey Business School’s general learning goals and objectives, visit the Carey website.Participation & Attendance Student attendance in assigned cohorts is mandatory, and there are no excused absences. Students who need to miss class should email the instructor in advance, and should arrange to recap the class with a peer. Students are expected to come to class on time. Cell phones must be in silent mode during class. Laptops and associated devices are permitted for legitimate classroom use only. Violations of these rules will be reflected in students’ course grades.PLEASE NOTE: Course reading is not optional and students are unlikely to do well in the class if they treat it as if it were. Students are expected to arrive prepared for engaged discussion. In-class contributions are evaluated daily (and especially during scheduled case discussions) based on the degree of understanding of the assigned content; managerially useful and analytic interpretation of readings and cases; thoughtful recommendations on case problems and application exercises, regularity, relevance, and depth of comments; and also the ability to synthesize and build on the comments of others.ResearchThis course is grounded in 50+ years of decision making research, much of which has been conducted in classes like this one. Because students will benefit from past research, and in the spirit of new knowledge creation, we may ask to use the results of some of the questionnaires and activities students complete inside and outside of class for the purposes of academic research. Any data you provide will be aggregated and anonymous; thus, student names will never be associated with the findings generated. Students who do not want the outcomes from any exercise used for research purposes should notify the instructor. All activities used to generate research data will be directly relevant to course objectives, and these data will be used throughout the course to demonstrate course concepts.Assignments & RubricsAssignmentLearning ObjectivesWeightClass participation and weekly assignments1, 2, 3, 4, 525%Individual case analysis1, 2, 3, 4, 525%Group project1, 4, 525%Final exam (used for Assurance of Learning)1, 2, 3, 4, 525%Total100%Weekly AssignmentsIn order to facilitate experiential learning, students will be asked to complete three rounds of questionnaires as indicated in the course calendar. The links for the questionnaires will be made available on Blackboard one week prior to their due date. In addition, students will be expected to complete several forecasting exercises at the end of each class session. Completion of these assignments will be factored into a participation score that comprises 25% of students’ final course grade.Individual Case AnalysisThe Individual Case Analysis requires students to understand and analyze a case of real-world managerial decision making. Each student will produce a report that applies course material to an assigned case. Additional details will be provided on Blackboard two weeks prior to the due date.Group ProjectThe Group Project involves the creation, administration, and analysis of a tool that can be used to assess decision making biases. Students will work in assigned groups to develop the tool, conduct primary research, and produce a written and oral report on their results. Additional details will be provided on Blackboard. Final ExamThe Final Exam will consist of multiple-choice and essay questions and will be administered on Week 8.GradingEffective Fall 2017: The grade of A is reserved for those who demonstrate extraordinarily excellent performance as determined by the instructor. The grade of A- is awarded only for excellent performance. The grades of B+, B, and B- are awarded for good performance. The grades of C+, C, and C- are awarded for adequate but substandard performance.?The grades of D+, D, and D- are not awarded at the graduate level (undergraduate only). The grade of F indicates the student’s failure to satisfactorily complete the course work.Please note that for Core and Foundation courses, a maximum of 25% of students may be awarded an A or A-; the grade point average of the class should not exceed 3.3. For Elective courses, a maximum of 35% of students may be awarded an A or A-; the grade point average of the class should not exceed 3.4. (For classes with 15 students or fewer, the class GPA cap is waived.)Student performance in all aspects of the course will be graded according to the following rubric:Fair (C+/B-)Good (B/B+)Excellent (A-/A)Comprehension of course materialThe student demonstrates basic understanding of course concepts, and is able to apply relevant concepts to decision problems. The student demonstrates sound understanding of course concepts, and is able to apply and extend relevant course concepts to decision problems. The student demonstrates impressive understanding of course concepts. The student draws non-obvious and constructive connections between course concepts and decision problems.Critical thinkingAnalysis of course content is accurate. The student can articulate conceptual understanding.Analysis of course contents is accurate and perceptive. The student can identify strengths and weaknesses of various perspectives studied in class.Analysis of course contents is accurate and insightful. The student is able to offer on-point critiques of material, and advances thinking on the topic.Effective communicationThe student’s written and oral contributions are sufficiently clear, with few errors that limit understanding.The student’s written and oral contributions are clear and organized. Communication is on-point and logical.The student’s written and oral contributions are clear, organized, and persuasive. Communication is logical and introduces novel ways of thinking. The student can communicate to various audiences.General citizenshipThe student does his/her part: attends classes, participates occasionally, submits assignments on time, responds to written and oral communication in a timely manner, and contributes his/her share in group work. The student adheres completely to the Carey Business School Honor Code.The student meets all of the previous criteria, and exceeds some of them through regular and on-point participation, high quality assignments, obvious engagement with course material, and/or leadership behavior in group work.The student meets all of the previous criteria, and exceeds them, acting as a model citizen in all aspects of the course. The student contributes greatly to other students’ learning and course experience.Tentative Course CalendarThe instructors reserve the right to alter course content and/or adjust the pace to accommodate class progress. Students are responsible for keeping up with all adjustments to the course calendar.DateTopic/Content in classRequired reading prior to classAssignmentsdue prior to class Basics in the science of decision makingForecasting exercise: Forecast 1Reading 1-3Decision making “by the numbers”: Normative approaches to decisions under uncertainty Case discussion: What went wrong in predicting the 2016 U.S. election?Forecasting exercise: Forecast 2Reading 4 Weekly Assignment 1:Intake questionnaire due by 11:59 PM on DATE (Qualtrics link posted on Blackboard)Cognitive and motivational Influences on DecisionsWeighting evidence in everyday social judgment (applying Bayes)Advice from Charlie MungerHeuristics and biases assessmentForecasting exercise: Forecast 3Reading 5-7Weekly Assignment 2:Networks questionnaire due by 11:59 PM on DATE (Qualtrics link posted on Blackboard)Decision making simulation exercise*Bring laptops to class*Case discussion: Does awareness of biases matter?Forecasting exercise: Forecast 4Reading 8-9Individual case analysis due by 11:59 PM on DATE (submitted through Turnitin on Blackboard)Social influences on decision making and perceptions of influenceForecasting exercise: Forecast 5Reading 10-11Weekly Assignment 3:Sender-Receiver questionnaire due by 11:59 PM on DATE (Qualtrics link posted on Blackboard)Sensemaking exerciseCase discussion: How do experts make decisions?Forecasting exercise: Forecast 6Reading 12-13Group presentationsForecasting exercise: Forecast 7No assigned readingGroup Assignment due by 11:59 PM on DATE (submitted through Turnitin on Blackboard)Final ExaminationReadingsNote that items marked with a * are included in the HBSP Course packet. All other readings will be made available through Blackboard.Buchanan, Leigh and Andrew O’Connell (2006), “A Brief History of Decision Making.” Harvard Business Review, January, (HBSP Reprint #R0601B).How do you know a “good” decision? Reading TBAChapter 4 of Tetlock, P., & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Penguin Random House.In an effort to provide the most current thinking on this topic, links to this set of readings will be made available on Blackboard one week prior to the due date.Advice from Charlie Munger: , John S., Ralph L. Keeney and Howard Raiffa (2006), “The Hidden Traps in Decision Making.” Harvard Business Review, January. (HBSP Reprint #R0601K)Lovallo, Dan and Daniel Kahneman (2003), “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’ Decisions.” Harvard Business Review, July, 57-63 (HBSP Reprint #4279 PDF-ENG)*Petersen, M. A., & Singhal, R. (2007). Vioxx: Too risky for Merck? This reading serves as the basis for the Individual Case Analysis. Note that this is the Kellogg case.Pronin, E. (2007). Perception and misperception of bias in human judgment. Trends In Cognitive Science, 11, 37-43.Cross, R., & Prusak, L. (2002). The people who make organizations go – or stop. Harvard Business Review, June (HBSP Reprint #R0206G)Personality and decision making. Reading TBAKlein, G., Calderwood, R., & Clinton-Cirocco, A. (2010). Rapid decision making on the fire ground: The original study plus postscript. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 4, 186-209.Phillips, J. K., Klein, G., & Sieck, W. R. (2004). Expertise in judgment and decision making: A case for training intuitive decision skills. Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 297-315.*Readings marked with an asterisk are available through the Harvard Business Publishing Course Pack only. All other readings are available through the E-reserves course link on Blackboard.Carey Business SchoolPolicies and General InformationBlackboard SiteA Blackboard course site is set up for this course. Each student is expected to check the site throughout the semester as Blackboard will be the primary venue for outside classroom communications between the instructors and the students. Students can access the course site at . Support for Blackboard is available at 1-866-669-6138.Course EvaluationAs a research and learning community, the Carey Business School is committed to continuous improvement. The faculty strongly encourages students to provide complete and honest feedback for this course. Please take this activity seriously; we depend on your feedback to help us improve. Information on how to complete the evaluation will be provided toward the end of the course.Disability Support ServicesAll students with disabilities who require accommodations for this course should contact Disability Support Services at their earliest convenience to discuss their specific needs. If you have a documented disability, you must be registered with Disability Support Services (carey.disability@jhu.edu or 410-234-9243) to receive accommodations. For more information, please visit the Disability Support Services webpage.Academic Ethics PolicyCarey expects graduates to be innovative business leaders and exemplary global citizens. The Carey community believes that honesty, integrity, and community responsibility are qualities inherent in an exemplary citizen. The objective of the Academic Ethics Policy (AEP) is to create an environment of trust and respect among all members of the Carey academic community and hold Carey students accountable to the highest standards of academic integrity and excellence.It is the responsibility of every Carey student, faculty member, and staff member to familiarize themselves with the AEP and its procedures. Failure to become acquainted with this information will not excuse any student, faculty, or staff from the responsibility to abide by the AEP. Please contact the Student Services office if you have any questions. For the full policy, please visit the Academic Ethics Policy webpage.Students are not allowed to use any electronic devices during in-class tests. Calculators will be provided if the instructor requires them for test taking. Students must seek permission from the instructor to leave the classroom during an in-class test. Test scripts must not be removed from the classroom during the test.Student Conduct CodeThe fundamental purpose of the Johns Hopkins University’s regulation of student conduct is to promote and to protect the health, safety, welfare, property, and rights of all members of the University community as well as to promote the orderly operation of the University and to safeguard its property and facilities. As members of the University community, students accept certain responsibilities which support the educational mission and create an environment in which all students are afforded the same opportunity to succeed academically. Please contact the Student Services office if you have any questions. For the full policy, please visit the Student Conduct Code webpage.Student Success CenterThe Student Success Center offers free online and in-person one-on-one and group coaching in writing, presenting, and quantitative courses. The center also offers a variety of workshops, exam study sessions, and instructor-led primer seminars to help prepare students for challenging course content, including statistics and accounting. For more information or to book an appointment, please visit the Student Success Center website.Other Important Academic Policies and ServicesStudents are strongly encouraged to consult the Carey Business School’s Student Handbook and Academic Catalog and Student Resources for information regarding the following items:Statement of Diversity and InclusionInclement Weather PolicyCopyright StatementUnless explicitly allowed by the instructor, course materials, class discussions, and examinations are created for and expected to be used by class participants only.?The recording and rebroadcasting of such material, by any means, is forbidden. Violations are subject to sanctions under the Honor Code. ................
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