IMPACT OF THE SUMMER 2004 HURRICANES ON COLLEGE …



PREFACE

This study arose out of the author’s observation of a significant decline in the fall-to-fall enrollment change at Florida A&M University (FAMU) in fall 2004 relative to previous periods. Based on the author’s hypothesis of a hurricane effect, the main purpose of this study was to examine the year-to-year changes in enrollments at other Florida public universities and community colleges in order to test the hurricane impact hypothesis.

The author utilized trend analysis to project the expected enrollments for Florida public universities in fall 2004, based essentially on each university’s historical data. The difference between the projected enrollments and the actual enrollments for fall 2004 was attributed to the hurricane impact. The author selected the most conservative enrollment growth model for each university. The main limitation of these projections was that they could not capture the specific qualitative factors, such as policy changes and initiatives, which may be associated with each university’s expected enrollments in fall 2004. However, the general direction of the author’s projections was consistent with each university’s historical growth pattern, and the expected negative impact of the summer 2004 hurricanes on enrollments. The projection models and levels of significance for each university’s projection can be viewed in the Appendices and Table 2.

Herman I. Brann, Ph.D.

Associate Vice President

Office of Institutional Research

Florida A&M University

E-Mail: herman.brann@famu.edu

OIR Web Site: famu.edu/oir

CONTENTS

Page

Preface ……………………………………………………………………

Tables …………………………………………………………………….

Figures ……………………………………………………………………

Executive Summary ………………………………………………………

1. Introduction …………………………………………………………..

2. Methodology ………………………………………………………….

3. Year-to-Year Changes in Enrollments at Florida Public Universities...

4. Actual vs. Projected Enrollments at Florida Public Universities ……..

5. Year-to-Year Changes in Enrollments at Florida Public Community Colleges...

6. Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………

7. References ………………………………………………………………………

8. Appendices: Trend Analysis Results of the Models used to Project Enrollments

for Florida Public Universities and the Community College System ……

Appendix 1. Trend Analysis Results for FAMU…………………………...

Appendix 2. Trend Analysis Results for FAU …………………………………...

Appendix 3. Trend Analysis Results for FGCU………………………………...

Appendix 4. Trend Analysis Results for FIU …………………………………...

Appendix 5. Trend Analysis Results for FSU …………………………………...

Appendix 6. Trend Analysis Results for NCF …………………………………...

Appendix 7. Trend Analysis Results for UCF …………………………………...

Appendix 8. Trend Analysis Results for UF …………………………………...

Appendix 9. Trend Analysis Results for UNF …………………………………...

Appendix 10.Trend Analysis Results for USF …………………………………...

Appendix 11.Trend Analysis Results for UWF …………………………………...

Appendix 12.Trend Analysis Results for the State University System …………...

Appendix 13. Trend Analysis Results for the Community College System ……...

TABLES

Page

Table 1. Total Enrollments and Year-to-Year Changes in Enrollments at

Florida Public Universities, 1995-2004 …………………………..

Table 2. Actual vs. Projected Enrollments for Florida Public Universities,

Fall 2004 ……………………………………………………………

Table 3. Fall Headcount Enrollments, Florida Community College System

1998- 2004 ………………………………………………………….

FIGURES

Page

Map 1. Path of Hurricane Charley across Central Florida, August 2004 ……..

Map 2. Location of Florida Public Universities and Community Colleges

By Counties ……………………………………………………………

Figure 1a. SUS Total Enrollments, 1995 – 2004 ……………………………….

Figure 1b. SUS Year-to-Year Changes in Enrollments …………………………

Figure 2. Trends in Total Enrollments by Florida Public Universities ………….

Figure 3a. Year-to-Year Changes in Enrollments by Florida Public Universities …

Figure 3b. Year-to-Year changes in Enrollments by Florida Public Univ. (Cont’d) ..

Figure 4a. Community College System Total Enrollments, 1998-2004 …………..

Figure 4b. Community College System Year-to-Year Changes in Enrollments ….

Figure 5a. Community Colleges with Declining Changes in Enrollments in

2003-2004 Relative to 2002-2003 ………………………………………

Figure 5b. Community Colleges with Declining Changes in Enrollments in

2003-2004 Relative to 2002-2003 (Cont’d) …………………………

Figure 5c. Community Colleges with Declining Changes in Enrollments in

2003-2004 Relative to 2002-2003 (Cont’d) …………………………

Figure 6. Community Colleges with Increasing Changes in Enrollments in

2003-2004 Relative to 2002-2003 ………………………………..…

THE IMPACT OF THE SUMMER 2004 HURRICANES ON ENROLLMENTS

AT FLORIDA PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES

Executive Summary

The author was puzzled by the significant loss in the year-to-year enrollments at Florida A&M University in 2003-2004 relative to previous periods. The author eventually hypothesized that the hurricanes of summer 2004 were the culprits. To test this hypothesis, the author examined the year-to-year enrollments at other Florida public universities and community colleges, and used trend analysis to project enrollments for fall 2004. The differences between the author’s projections and the actual enrollments were used to estimate the impact of the hurricanes on the enrollments of Florida residents at Florida public universities and community colleges. The findings are presented below.

There was a drastic decrease in the year-to-year changes in enrollments for the majority of Florida’s public universities and colleges in 2003-2004 relative to previous periods. The Florida public university system recorded the lowest year-to-year increase of 6,245 students in 2003-2004 compared to the previous five year-to-year changes ( i.e., since the 1998-1999 period). There were no other previous periods in which the majority of Florida public colleges and universities experienced similar, consistent, year-to-year declines as in fall 2003-2004. Year-to-year changes of these magnitudes and frequencies are usually associated with catastrophic events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.

The author estimated that Florida public universities lost between 2,300 and 2,600 Florida residents due to Hurricane Charley, after adjusting for out-of-state and out-of-country students. Florida A&M University lost about 148 Florida residents due to Hurricane Charley. Almost one half of the losses in the Florida public university system may have occurred at the University of South Florida. The estimated losses of other Florida public universities are presented in the report.

For the Florida public community college system, there was an actual loss of 18,522 students in fall 2004 compared to fall 2003. The author projected that the community college system may have lost as much as 36,398 students in fall 2004 relative to fall 2003. In order to estimate the loss of Florida residents in the community college system due to Hurricane Charley, it will be necessary to adjust these numbers by the percentage of out-of-state and out-of-country students in the Florida public community college system.

The negative impact of Hurricane Charley on enrollments in Florida public universities and community colleges suggests that the long-term enrollment and degree projections submitted by Florida public universities to the Florida Division of Colleges and Universities in June 2004 should be revised, and reinforces the need to revise and update all long-term projections, at least annually, to take account of changes in environmental factors and university policies and initiatives.

While it is possible to use more complex econometric models to isolate the impact of other factors that could be associated with the drastic year-to-year change in enrollments in 2003-2004 relative to previous periods, the trend model used by the author provides a good general estimate of the enrollment loss, especially for only one year of projections.

Introduction

During the fall of 2004, the author of this report noticed a significant decline in the 2003 to 2004 change in enrollments at Florida A&M University (FAMU) relative to previous periods. The year-to-year increases in enrollments during the periods 2000-2001, 2001-2002, and 2002-2003 were 188, 119, and 555 students, respectively, while the increase in enrollments during the period 2003-2004 was only 47 students. This suggested that there was some unusual occurrence in the economy which was responsible for this relatively low increase in enrollments in 2003-2004. The hypothesis eventually evolved that the Florida hurricanes of August 2004 were the culprits. In order to test this hypothesis, the path of the most severe hurricane in Florida in August 2004 was examined to determine the impact of the hurricane on enrollments in the public universities and colleges serving the counties which were most impacted by the hurricane.

On August 14, 2004, the State of Florida was hit by Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 Hurricane, which made landfall on the S.W. coast of Florida, just north of Captiva, and passed over Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte with devastating results. Hurricane Charley continued N.E. over Central Florida, near Kissimee and Orlando, then towards Daytona Beach and the coast of S. Carolina. Hurricane Charley was reported by the National Hurricane Center to be the strongest hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The path of Hurricane Charley across Florida is illustrated in Map 1 below. The following counties were directly hit by Hurricane Charley on its path through Central Florida: Lee, Charlotte, Desoto, Hardee, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, and Volusia. Many neighboring counties also suffered severe damage. The names and location of these counties are illustrated in Map 2 below.

Map 1. Path of Hurricane Charley across Central Florida, August 2004

[pic]

(Photo reproduced from the National Hurricane Center)

2.0 Methodology

In order to test the hypothesis that Hurricane Charley was the main cause of the unusual decline in the year-to-year change in enrollments at FAMU in 2003-2004, the author examined the trends in the year-to-year changes in enrollments at all public universities in the Florida State University System (SUS) to determine whether most of the universities experienced similar relative year-to-year declines in 2003-2004 as did FAMU. The author then estimated the total loss in enrollments at individual universities and the SUS by examining the difference between the actual enrollments in fall 2004 and the enrollments projected by the universities and the author for fall 2004. The author used trend analysis to project fall 2004 enrollments for each university. In order to validate the findings concerning the hurricane impact, the author also examined enrollments in the Public Community Colleges in Florida for similar relative year-to-year declines in 2003-2004. This report provides an analysis of the impact of Hurricane Charley on the enrollments of public universities and colleges in Florida in fall 2004.

Map 2. Location of Florida Public Universities and Colleges by Counties

3.0 Year-to-Year Changes in Enrollments at Florida Public Universities

Table 1 provides data on total enrollments and year-to-year changes in enrollments in the public universities in Florida. These data are illustrated in Figures 1a and 1b. Total enrollments in the SUS increased steadily from 1995 to 2004 (Figure 1). There was also a general increase in the year-to-year changes in enrollments from 1995 to 2001, but a general decline afterwards (Figure 1b). Note, however, that the SUS recorded the smallest year-to-year change in enrollments in 2003-2004 relative to the previous four periods. For individual universities, there was also a general increase in total enrollments (Figure 2), and significant declines in the year-to-year changes in enrollments in 2003-2004 relative to the previous four periods, for most of the universities (Figure 3a). This pattern for most of the individual universities and the SUS supports the hypothesis of the Hurricane Charley effect. It is important to note that there were no other periods in which the majority of the universities experienced similar consistent declines.

Figure 3a displays those universities with declining year-to-year changes in 2003-2004 relative to the previous period. Universities such as UCF in Orange County, USF in Hillsborough County, and FGCU in Lee County were in close proximity to the path of Hurricane Charley as indicated in Maps 1 and 2. The steep decline in year-to-year enrollments for USF during 1996-1997 seems to be associated with the opening of FGCU in 1997. Other universities like FAU, although located in Broward County which was not close to the path of the hurricane, enroll a large number of students from Palm Beach to Indian River County. These counties suffered serious damage from Hurricane Charley. Map 1 also indicates that Escambia County, where UWF is located, was struck by Hurricane Ivan in September 2004. Only FAMU and UF were well outside the path of Hurricane Charley suggesting that these universities enroll a more dispersed student population in Florida. Figure 3b reveals that only two universities, FIU and FSU, showed a significant positive year-to-year change in enrollments in 2003-2004 relative to the previous period. Both of these universities were outside the path of Hurricane Charley. The year-to-year enrollment increase for UNF in 2003-2004 relative to the previous period seems to be consistent with normal enrollment growth.

Significant hurricane damage in Florida usually results in some families leaving the state, while others may migrate to other counties within the state. Migration may explain the relative increases for 2003-2004 observed for FIU and FSU. The question of FAMU’s relative year-to-year loss in 2003-2004 in the context of a similar gain by FSU can be explained also. FAMU’s student population is approximately 95 percent African-Americans, with median family incomes of less than $30,000, while the median family incomes of FSU students are about $50,000. Therefore, the asset base of many FAMU families may be very low or non-existent. These families are likely to take a much longer time to recover from a catastrophic event than the families of FSU students, and are more likely to postpone investments in higher education in the event of a financial catastrophe.

Table 1. Total Enrollments and Year-to-Year Changes in Enrollments in Florida

Public Universities, 1995 to 2004

|Universities  |

| | | |

| | | |

| | | |

| | | |

| | | | |

| Universities |

| | | | | | | |

|  |

| |

| |







Of the twenty-eight (28) public community colleges in Florida, all but five reported declining year-to-year changes during 2003 to 2004 relative to earlier periods. Figure 5 illustrates the year-to-year changes for those community colleges reporting declining year-to-year enrollments in 2003 to 2004 relative to earlier periods, while Figure 6 illustrates the year-to-year changes for those community colleges reporting increasing year-to-year enrollments in 2003 to 2004 relative to earlier periods.









Except for Valencia Community College located in Orange County, most of the community colleges reporting increasing enrollments in 2003-2004 relative to 2002-2003 were not located close to the path of Hurricane Charley. These community colleges were Florida Keys C.C. in Monroe County; North Florida C.C. in Madison County; Gulf Coast C.C. in Bay County; and St. John’s River C.C. in Putnam County. The increase observed in Valencia C.C., despite its location in Orange County, may be due to potential UCF students switching to Valencia C.C. in order to reduce costs following Hurricane Charley.

Losses expressed in terms of full-time-equivalent (FTE) students were also reported by the Florida Division of Community Colleges (Table 3). The Florida Community College System reported a loss of 5,049 FTEs in fall 2004 which were associated with the summer 2004 hurricanes. These losses were reported by individual community colleges as the reasons given by students who requested withdrawals; therefore, under-reporting or no reporting by some students may exist. The highest reported FTE losses were in Daytona Beach C.C. (828); Seminole C.C. (806); Pensacola C.C. (725); Indian River C.C. (676); Edison C.C. (406); and Florida C.C. at Jacksonville (334). All of these community colleges were located close to the path of one or more of the summer 2004 hurricanes.

6.0 Conclusion

There was a drastic decrease in the year-to-year changes in enrollments for the majority of Florida’s public universities and colleges in 2003-2004 relative to previous periods. There were no other previous periods in which the majority of Florida public colleges and universities experienced similar, consistent, year-to-year declines as in fall 2003-2004. Year-to-year changes of these magnitudes and frequencies are usually associated with catastrophic events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, etc. The author estimated that Florida public universities lost between 2,300 and 2,600 Florida residents, while Florida A&M University lost about 148 Florida residents due to Hurricane Charley.

For the Florida public community college system, there was an actual loss of 18,522 students in fall 2004 relative to fall 2003. The author projected that the community college system may have lost as much as 36,398 students in fall 2004 relative to fall 2003. In order to estimate the loss of Florida residents in the community college system due to Hurricane Charley, it may be necessary to reduce these numbers by the percentage of out-of-state and out-of-country students in the Florida public community college system.

The negative impact of Hurricane Charley on enrollments in Florida public colleges and universities suggests that the enrollment and degree projections submitted by public universities to the Florida Division of Colleges and Universities in June 2004 should be revised, and reinforces the need to revise and update all long-term projections, at least annually, to take account of changes in environmental factors, policies, and initiatives.

While it is possible to use more complex econometric models to isolate the impact of other factors that could be associated with the year-to-year change in enrollments in 2003-2004 relative to previous periods, there is sufficient evidence to support that the drastic changes observed in 2003-2004 were mostly associated with Hurricane Charley, and the trend model used by the author provides a good general estimate of the enrollment loss, especially for only one year of projections.

7.0 References

Florida Division of Colleges and Universities. Interactive Enrollment Reports

()

Florida Division of Colleges and Universities. Strategic Planning Resources

()

Florida Community College System. FACT BOOK. Department of Education.

Division of Accountability, Research, and Measurement, 1998 – 2004

Florida Community College System. FTE Projections. May 2005.

APPENDICES

Trend Analysis Results of Models Used to Project Enrollments for

Florida Public Universities and the Public Community College System

Appendix 1. Trend Analysis Results for FAMU

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

FAMU LIN .946 7 123.06 .000 10148.1 321.833

FAMU QUA .969 6 92.39 .000 9747.62 540.253 -21.842

FAMU CUB .973 5 60.99 .000 9435.67 838.964 -92.738 4.7264

FAMU GRO .937 7 104.33 .000 9.2308 .0277

[pic]

Appendix 2. Trend Analysis Results for FAU

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

FAU LIN .951 7 136.65 .000 16746.6 907.200

FAU QUA .974 6 114.12 .000 17890.9 283.023 62.4177

FAU CUB .976 5 66.51 .000 18321.3 -129.16 160.246 -6.5219

FAU GRO .962 7 179.19 .000 9.7480 .0423

[pic]

Appendix 3. Trend Analysis Results for FGCU

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

FGCU LIN .957 5 110.88 .000 738.000 540.500

FGCU QUA .990 4 197.21 .000 2595.52 -156.07 58.0476

FGCU CUB .990 3 99.31 .002 2305.52 12.2619 28.0476 1.6667

FGCU GRO .986 5 341.97 .000 7.4381 .1356

[pic]

Appendix 4. Trend Analysis Results for FIU

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

FIU LIN .961 7 171.37 .000 27978.0 680.867

FIU QUA .962 6 76.29 .000 27766.8 796.061 -11.519

FIU CUB .966 5 47.06 .000 27200.3 1338.53 -140.27 8.5833

FIU GRO .958 7 159.00 .000 10.2434 .0218

[pic]

Appendix 5. Trend Analysis Results for FSU

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

FSU LIN .955 7 147.89 .000 28235.0 1013.38

FSU QUA .970 6 97.73 .000 29276.7 445.147 56.8236

FSU CUB .994 5 292.75 .000 31457.7 -1643.3 552.493 -33.045

FSU GRO .956 7 152.40 .000 10.2586 .0303

[pic]

Appendix 6. Trend Analysis Results for NCF

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

NCF LIN .994 1 164.28 .050 503.667 18.5000

NCF QUA 1.000 0 .00 -INF 662.000 -21.500 2.5000

NCF CUB 1.000 0 . . 605.267 -.2016 .1126

NCF GRO .995 1 204.29 .044 6.2524 .0284

Notes: Rsq = 1.0; some dependent variables were not entered.

[pic]

Appendix 7. Trend Analysis Results for UCF

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

UCF LIN .971 7 234.65 .000 23685.8 1847.45

UCF QUA .999 6 5392.36 .000 26242.8 452.677 139.477

UCF CUB 1.000 5 4631.47 .000 25887.2 793.255 58.6439 5.3889

UCF GRO .988 7 564.90 .000 10.1134 .0556

[pic]

Appendix 8. Trend Analysis Results for UF

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

UF LIN .989 7 606.54 .000 38272.2 1182.87

UF QUA .990 6 293.24 .000 37927.5 1370.90 -18.803

UF CUB .995 5 326.72 .000 39072.4 274.579 241.399 -17.347

UF GRO .986 7 491.78 .000 10.5592 .0269

[pic]

Appendix 9. Trend Analysis Results for UNF

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

UNF LIN .997 7 2207.66 .000 10027.3 445.817

UNF QUA .997 6 1138.53 .000 10110.6 400.330 4.5487

UNF CUB .997 5 659.45 .000 10173.2 340.428 18.7659 -.9478

UNF GRO .997 7 2262.01 .000 9.2269 .0365

[pic]

Appendix 10. Trend Analysis Results for USF

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

USF LIN .542 7 8.30 .024 33671.3 651.867

USF QUA .951 6 58.33 .000 38250.5 -1845.9 249.773

USF CUB .954 5 34.54 .001 38894.3 -2462.3 396.086 -9.7542

USF GRO .533 7 8.00 .025 10.4291 .0172

[pic]

Appendix 11. Trend Analysis Results for UWF

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

UWF LIN .731 7 19.03 .003 7661.06 180.967

UWF QUA .934 6 42.37 .000 8432.29 -239.70 42.0671

UWF CUB .967 5 48.92 .000 8954.34 -739.61 160.716 -7.9099

UWF GRO .728 7 18.72 .003 8.9500 .0207

[pic]

Appendix 12. Trend Analysis Results for the SUS

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

SUS LIN .980 7 345.80 .000 195675 8047.30

SUS QUA .998 6 1813.39 .000 204545 3208.75 483.855

SUS CUB .999 5 1792.27 .000 207504 375.816 1156.23 -44.825

SUS GRO .988 7 573.16 .000 12.1977 .0339

[pic]

APPENDIX 13. TREND ANALYSIS RESULTS FOR THE

COMMUNITY COLLEGE SYSTEM

Independent: Time

Dependent Mth Rsq d.f. F Sigf b0 b1 b2 b3

CCSystem LIN .917 4 44.00 .003 280631 18503.3

CCSystem QUA .938 3 22.64 .015 298616 5014.66 1926.95

CCSystem CUB .993 2 96.07 .010 358098 -69811 26711.3 -2360.4

CCSystem GRO .913 4 41.73 .003 12.5612 .0533

[pic]

-----------------------

|[pic] |UNIVERSITIES |COMM. COLL |

| | | |

|COUNTIES | | |

|Alachua |UF |Santa Fe CC |

|Bay | |Gulf Coast CC |

|Brevard | |Brevard CC |

|Broward | |Broward CC |

|Columbia | |Lake City CC |

|Dade |FIU |Miami-Dade CC |

|Duval |UNF | at Jackson. |

|Escambia |UWF |Pensacola Jr. Coll. |

|Highlands | |S.Florida CC |

|Hillsborough |USF |Hisborough CC |

|Hernando | |Pasco-Hernando |

|Jackson | |Chipola CC |

|Lake | |Lake-Sumter |

|Lee |FGCU |Edison CC |

|Leon |FAMU, FSU |Tallahassee CC |

|Madison | |N. Florida CC |

|Manatee | |Manatee CC |

|Marion | |C. Florida CC |

|Monroe | |Florida Keys CC |

|Okaloosa | |Okaloosa-Walton |

|Orange |UCF |Valencia CC |

|Palm Beach |FAU |Palm Beach CC |

|Pinellas | |St. Petersburg CC |

|Polk | |Polk CC |

|Putnam | |St. Johns CC |

|Sarasota |New College of FL | |

|Seminole | |Seminole CC |

|St. Lucie | |Indian River CC |

|Volusia | |Daytona Beach |

EDISON

NORTH FLA

BROWARD

Figure 5c. Community Colleges with Declining Changes in Enrollments in 2003-2004 Relative to 2002-2003

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