Traditional Marketing, Online Communication and Market ...

[Pages:152]Traditional Marketing, Online Communication and Market Outcomes

Essay 1: Marketing Activity, Blogging and Sales Essay 2: Consumers' Social Learning about

Videogame Consoles through Multi-Website Browsing Essay 3: Co-evolution of Network Growth and Group Formation

by Hiroshi Onishi

A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Business Administration) in The University of Michigan 2011

Doctoral Committee: Professor Puneet Manchanda, Chair Professor Gerald F. Davis Professor Fred M. Feinberg Associate Professor Lada A. Adamic Associate Professor Anocha Aribarg

? Hiroshi Onishi

2011

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank all the members of the doctoral dissertation committee, participants at the 2009 YCCI Conference at Yale SOM, at the Michigan Marketing PhD Camp 2008-2010, at the 2008 Marketing Science conference in Vancouver, at the 2009 Marketing Science conference in Ann Arbor and the 2010 Marketing Dynamics conference in Istanbul for valuable feedback, and Hotlink Inc., Dentsu Inc. and Video Research International Inc. for providing the data. I would also like to thank the Ross School of Business for research support via Phelps Doctoral Fellowship, Leo Burnett Fellowship and Spivey/Hall Fellowship.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ..........................................................................................................ii Lists of Figures ................................................................................................................ v Lists of Tables ................................................................................................................. vi Abstract ........................................................................................................................ viii

Chapter I Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 Tables and Figures.......................................................................................................5 References..................................................................................................................... 6

Chapter II Marketing Activity, Blogging and Sales ...................................................... 8 II-1 Introduction...........................................................................................................9 II-2 Data .....................................................................................................................13 II-2.1 Market Outcomes ......................................................................................... 13 II-2.2 Traditional Media.........................................................................................14 II-2.3 New Media .................................................................................................... 15 II-3 Model ...................................................................................................................16 II-4 Results .................................................................................................................22 II-4.1 Parameter Estimates ................................................................................... 22 II-4.2 Model Fit ....................................................................................................... 24 II-4.3 Text Mining and Analysis ............................................................................ 25 II-4.4 Managerial Implications .............................................................................. 28 II-5 Conclusion, Limitations and Directions for Future Research .......................... 30 Tables and Figures.....................................................................................................33 Appendix II-A Testing data series stationarity ........................................................ 57 II-6 Appendix II-B Testing Granger causality between dependent variables ........ 59 Appendix II-C Results of parameter estimates of carry-over constants ................. 60 Appendix II-D Robustness check with a three-equation system ............................. 61 References................................................................................................................... 71

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Chapter III Consumers' Social Learning about Videogame Consoles through Multiple Website Browsing ........................................................................................... 74

III-1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 75 III-2 Literature review...............................................................................................77 III-3 Data....................................................................................................................79

III-3.1 Videogame console ownership .................................................................... 79 III-3.2 Pre-purchase browsing behavior of videogame websites and classification of community-based websites ................................................................................ 79 III-3.3 TV GRPs and PRs (Public Relations).........................................................81 III-3.4 Limitation of the data: gap between the dates of launch and survey ...... 81 III-4 Model..................................................................................................................82 III-4.1 A learning process of product quality ........................................................ 82 III-4.2 Purchase choice based on the cumulative product beliefs ........................ 86 III-4.3 Identification and estimation ..................................................................... 87 III-5 Results and discussions.....................................................................................88 III-5.1 Results of the bivariate learning process .................................................. 88 III-5.2 Results of the pageview equations ............................................................. 89 III-5.3 Results of the purchase choice ................................................................... 90 III-5.4 Model comparisons......................................................................................92 III-5.5 Policy simulations: advertising schedule plans.........................................92 III-6 Conclusion..........................................................................................................93 Tables and Figures.....................................................................................................96 Appendix ................................................................................................................... 106 Appendix III-A Inter-rater agreement in classifying community-based websites106 Appendix III-B Parameter Recovery ....................................................................... 107 References................................................................................................................. 108

Chapter IV Co-evolution of Network Growth and Group Formation ....................... 110

IV-1 Introduction......................................................................................................111 IV-2 Literature review ............................................................................................. 112 IV-3 Data .................................................................................................................. 113 IV-4 Model ................................................................................................................ 116 IV-5 Results .............................................................................................................. 118

IV-5.1 Stickiness effect ......................................................................................... 118 IV-5.2 Co-evolution effect ..................................................................................... 119 IV-6 Discussion and Conclusion .............................................................................. 120 Tables and Figures...................................................................................................121 Appendix IV-A Regression results of stickiness effects and co-evolution effects . 132 Appendix IV-B Checking unobserved factors to make dyadic connections...........135 Appendix IV-C MCMC estimation procedure and the prior setting ..................... 137 References................................................................................................................. 138

Chapter V Conclusion..................................................................................................139

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Lists of Figures

Figure I-1 Framework of the dissertation ...................................................................... 5 Figure II-1 An Japanese Blog focused on "Spider-man 3" (May 1, 2007) ................... 51 Figure II-2 "Spider-man 3" Pre- and Post-Release Patterns (2007) ........................... 52 Figure II-3 Effect of 10% Increase in Adstock (Green Tea Drinks) ............................ 53 Figure II-4 Effect of 10% Increase in Adstock (Movies)............................................... 53 Figure II-5 Effect of 10% Increase in Adstock (Cellular Phone Service) .................... 54 Figure II-6 Long-term Effects of 10% Increase in Adstock (Green Tea Drinks) ........ 55 Figure II-7 Long-term Effects of 10% Increase in Adstock (Movies) .......................... 55 Figure II-8 Long-term Effects of 10% Increase in Adstock (Cellular Phone Service) 56 Figure III-1 Outline of the research and the proposed model ................................... 103 Figure III-2 Updates of mean personal beliefs...........................................................104 Figure III-3 Updates of mean social beliefs ............................................................... 104 Figure III-4 Simulated updates of mean personal beliefs of Wii .............................. 105 Figure III-5 Simulated updates of mean social beliefs of Wii ................................... 105 Figure IV-1 Facebook Fan page (e.g., Volks Wagen CC) ........................................... 128 Figure IV-2 Mean # connections (normalized by days)..............................................128 Figure IV-3 Mean # messages (normalized by days) ................................................. 129 Figure IV-4 Mean # visits (normalized by days) ........................................................ 129 Figure IV-5 Mean # connections with new users who registered within 1 day.......130 Figure IV-6 Mean # connections with new users who registered within 3 days ..... 130 Figure IV-7 Mean # connections with new users who registered within 7 days ..... 131

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Lists of Tables

Table II-1 List of Past Studies and Comparisons ........................................................ 33 Table II-2 Brand Market Share (Green Tea Drinks) ................................................... 35 Table II-3 Movie List ..................................................................................................... 35 Table II-4 Number of Subscribers (Cellular Phone Service) ....................................... 35 Table II-5 Market Outcomes ......................................................................................... 36 Table II-6 Traditional Media (TV GRPs)......................................................................36 Table II-7 New media (Number of blogs) ..................................................................... 36 Table II-8 Blog Valence Percentage (Movies and Cellular Phone Service) ................ 37 Table II-9 Correlation Matrix (Green Tea Drinks) ...................................................... 38 Table II-10 Correlation Matrix (Movies) ...................................................................... 38 Table II-11 Correlation Matrix (Cellular Phone Service) ............................................ 39 Table II-12 Sales Volume Equation (Green Tea Drinks).............................................40 Table II-13 Sales Volume (Audience) Equation (Movies) ............................................ 41 Table II-14 Sales Volume (Subscribers) Equation (Cellular Phone Service)..............42 Table II-15 Blog Equation (Green Tea Drinks)............................................................43 Table II-16 Blog Equation (Movies) .............................................................................. 44 Table II-17 Blog Equation (Cellular Phone Service)....................................................45 Table II-18 Model Fit.....................................................................................................46 Table II-19 Holdout (last observation) test AIC...........................................................47 Table II-20 Holdout (chosen at random) test AIC........................................................47 Table II-21 Word Counts (Movies) ................................................................................ 48 Table II-22 Word Counts (Cellular Phone Service) ..................................................... 49 Table II-23 Word Percentage (Movies) ......................................................................... 50 Table II-24 Word Percentage (Cellular Phone Service) ............................................... 50 Table II-25 Root Mean Square Deviation Comparison................................................50 Table II-26 Results of Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for a unit root (stationarity of data series) ........................................................................................... 57 Table II-27 Results of Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation of disturbances ........ 58 Table II-28 Results of Granger causality test .............................................................. 59 Table II-29 Results of parameter estimates of carry-over constants .......................... 60 Table II-30 Sales Volume Equation Comparison (Green Tea Drinks)........................62 Table II-31 Sales Volume (Audience) Equation Comparison (Movies) ....................... 63 Table II-32 Sales Volume (Subscribers) Equation Comparison (Cellular Phone Service) ........................................................................................................................... 64 Table II-33 Blog Equation Comparison (Green Tea Drinks).......................................65 Table II-34 Blog Equation Comparison (Movies) ......................................................... 66 Table II-35 Blog Equation Comparison (Cellular Phone Service) .............................. 67 Table II-36 Advertising Equation (Green Tea Drinks)................................................68 Table II-37 Advertising Equation (Movies) .................................................................. 69 Table II-38 Advertising Equation (Cellular Phone Service)........................................70

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Table III-1 A list of videogame related websites..........................................................96 Table III-2 Data description: Videogame console possessions .................................... 98 Table III-3 Mean daily pageviews of videogame-related websites..............................98 Table III-4 Average of Pearson's correlation coefficients across videogame-related websites .......................................................................................................................... 98 Table III-5 Mean daily GRPs of videogame ads and PRs ............................................ 99 Table III-6 Estimates of the bivariate learning process .............................................. 99

Table III-7 Estimates of (personal) pageview equation: ln(nit ) ................................100 Table III-8 Estimates of social (community-based) pageview equation: ln(niCt OM ) ..100

Table III-9 Estimates of purchase choice ................................................................... 101 Table III-10 Cross elasticity ........................................................................................ 101 Table III-11 Model comparisons ................................................................................. 102 Table III-12 Key parameters with true values and 5%-95% confidence intervals ... 107

Table IV-1 Network statistics: Monthly growth ........................................................ 121 Table IV-2 Network activity statistics........................................................................121 Table IV-3 Group statistics ......................................................................................... 121 Table IV-4 Group topics...............................................................................................122 Table IV-5 List of dependent variables (Network activity) ....................................... 122 Table IV-6 List of independent variables: User baseline characteristics ................. 123 Table IV-7 List of independent variables: User-group related characteristics ........ 123 Table IV-8 List of independent variables: Group characteristics ............................. 123 Table IV-9 Model selection compared by posterior log likelihood ............................. 124 Table IV-10 Stickiness effect estimates (DV: Connections) ...................................... 124 Table IV-11 Stickiness effect estimates (DV: Messages) ........................................... 125 Table IV-12 Stickiness effect estimates (DV: Visits) ................................................. 126 Table IV-13 Co-evolution effect estimates (DV: New Users within 1 day) ............... 127 Table IV-14 Regression results DV: Days of visits (among all users).......................132 Table IV-15 Regression results DV: # Connections of each user (among all users) 133 Table IV-16 Regression results DV: # Connections of each user (among group users) ...................................................................................................................................... 133 Table IV-17 Regression results DV: # Messages of each user (among all users) .... 133 Table IV-18 Regression results DV: # Messages of each user (among group users) ...................................................................................................................................... 134 Table IV-19 Comparison of # connections at pre vs. post join groups ...................... 136 Table IV-20 Comparison of # connections among homophily vs. non-homophily ... 136

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