AP Research Academic Paper

2019

AP? Research Academic Paper

Sample Student Responses and Scoring Commentary

Inside:

Sample B RR Scoring Guideline RR Student Samples RR Scoring Commentary

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AP? RESEARCH -- ACADEMIC PAPER 2019 SCORING GUIDELINES

The Response...

Score of 1

Report on Existing Knowledge

Presents an overly broad topic of inquiry.

Score of 2

Report on Existing Knowledge with Simplistic Use of a Research Method Presents a topic of inquiry with narrowing scope or focus, that is NOT carried through either in the method or in the overall line of reasoning.

Score of 3

Ineffectual Argument for a New Understanding

Carries the focus or scope of a topic of inquiry through the method AND overall line of reasoning, even though the focus or scope might still be narrowing.

Score of 4

Well-Supported, Articulate Argument Conveying a New Understanding Focuses a topic of inquiry with clear and narrow parameters, which are addressed through the method and the conclusion.

Score of 5

Rich Analysis of a New Understanding Addressing a Gap in the Research Base Focuses a topic of inquiry with clear and narrow parameters, which are addressed through the method and the conclusion.

Situates a topic of inquiry within a single perspective derived from scholarly works OR through a variety of perspectives derived from mostly non-scholarly works.

Situates a topic of inquiry within a single perspective derived from scholarly works OR through a variety of perspectives derived from mostly non-scholarly works.

Situates a topic of inquiry within relevant scholarly works of varying perspectives, although connections to some works may be unclear.

Explicitly connects a topic of inquiry to relevant scholarly works of varying perspectives AND logically explains how the topic of inquiry addresses a gap.

Explicitly connects a topic of inquiry to relevant scholarly works of varying perspectives AND logically explains how the topic of inquiry addresses a gap.

Describes a search and report process.

Describes a nonreplicable research method OR provides an oversimplified description of a method, with questionable alignment to the purpose of the inquiry.

Describes a reasonably replicable research method, with questionable alignment to the purpose of the inquiry.

Logically defends the alignment of a detailed, replicable research method to the purpose of the inquiry.

Logically defends the alignment of a detailed, replicable research method to the purpose of the inquiry.

Summarizes or reports existing knowledge in the field of understanding pertaining to the topic of inquiry.

Summarizes or reports existing knowledge in the field of understanding pertaining to the topic of inquiry.

Conveys a new understanding or conclusion, with an underdeveloped line of reasoning OR insufficient evidence.

Supports a new understanding or conclusion through a logically organized line of reasoning AND sufficient evidence. The limitations and/or implications, if present, of the new understanding or conclusion are oversimplified.

Justifies a new understanding or conclusion through a logical progression of inquiry choices, sufficient evidence, explanation of the limitations of the conclusion, and an explanation of the implications to the community of practice.

Generally communicates the student's ideas, although errors in grammar, discipline-specific style, and organization distract or confuse the reader.

Generally communicates the student's ideas, although errors in grammar, discipline-specific style, and organization distract or confuse the reader.

Competently communicates the student's ideas, although there may be some errors in grammar, discipline-specific style, and organization.

Competently communicates the student's ideas, although there may be some errors in grammar, discipline-specific style, and organization.

Enhances the communication of the student's ideas through organization, use of design elements, conventions of grammar, style, mechanics, and word precision, with few to no errors.

Cites AND/OR attributes sources (in bibliography/ works cited and/or intext), with multiple errors and/or an inconsistent use of a disciplinespecific style.

Cites AND/OR attributes sources (in bibliography/ works cited and/or intext), with multiple errors and/or an inconsistent use of a disciplinespecific style.

Cites AND attributes sources, using a discipline-specific style (in both bibliography/works cited AND intext), with few errors or inconsistencies.

Cites AND attributes sources, with a consistent use of an appropriate discipline-specific style (in both bibliography/works cited AND intext), with few to no errors.

Cites AND attributes sources, with a consistent use of an appropriate discipline-specific style (in both bibliography/works cited AND intext), with few to no errors.

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AP? RESEARCH 2019 SCORING COMMENTARY

Academic Paper

Overview This performance task was intended to assess students' ability to conduct scholarly and responsible research and articulate an evidence-based argument that clearly communicates the conclusion, solution, or answer to their stated research question. More specifically, this performance task was intended to assess students' ability to:

? Generate a focused research question that is situated within or connected to a larger scholarly context or community;

? Explore relationships between and among multiple works representing multiple perspectives within the scholarly literature related to the topic of inquiry;

? Articulate what approach, method, or process they have chosen to use to address their research question, why they have chosen that approach to answering their question, and how they employed it;

? Develop and present their own argument, conclusion, or new understanding while acknowledging its limitations and discussing implications;

? Support their conclusion through the compilation, use, and synthesis of relevant and significant evidence generated by their research;

? Use organizational and design elements to effectively convey the paper's message; ? Consistently and accurately cite, attribute, and integrate the knowledge and work of others, while

distinguishing between the student's voice and that of others; ? Generate a paper in which word choice and syntax enhance communication by adhering to established

conventions of grammar, usage, and mechanics.

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AP Research Sample B 1 of 22

USING SENTIMENT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT GOOGLE STOCK PRICES

Using Sentiment Analysis to Predict Google Stock Prices Word Count: 4434

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AP Research Sample B 2 of 22

USING SENTIMENT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT GOOGLE STOCK PRICES

Introduction Stock markets play an active role in the modern-day economy. In the month of February in 2019, the NASDAQ Stock Market recorded an average of 12 million shares traded daily (NasdaqTrader 2019). Based on a survey conducted in 2016, it is estimated that 52% of Americans have money invested in the stock market (Jones and Saad 2016, 1). Despite the vast number of stock investors, they mostly strive for a common goal of profiting. Typically, traders desire to find and purchase stocks that will rise in terms of prices in the future. As time passes and their stocks' value rises, they can choose to sell it at a higher price than before and earn a profit. As a result, it is essential for traders to have the ability to foresee future stock trends. This skill of prediction enables the trader to select the stock with great potential to rise in value and acquire it at a low price. Living in the age of the Internet, people are able to express their opinions with ease. Online news, public forums, and social media are examples of popular platforms available for people to communicate their thoughts. Facebook, an American online social media company, recorded 4 billion pieces of content posted daily in 2012 (Wilson et al. 2012, 203). Through online posts, users indirectly indicate their attitudes and views on certain events. This immense online content can be treated as data suggesting the mood of the public. The sentiment of online news attracts the attention of stock investors as it is directly related to the market. Traders read and interpret news articles related to their investments. The sentiment conveyed by the most up-to-date news will impact their decisions to buy or sell their stocks. Therefore, in logical terms, the general opinion of online reports has an impact on the stock market. By collecting the sentiment of news, analysts can derive a correlation between the public's mood with the stock market.

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AP Research Sample B 3 of 22

USING SENTIMENT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT GOOGLE STOCK PRICES

Literature Review Numerous studies had been done to examine the accuracy and applications of sentiment analysis. Sentiment analysis can be defined as a computational method that extracts opinions by analyzing raw text data (Kechaou et al. 2011, 1032). There are innumerous realworld applications of sentiment analysis, such as labeling customer reviews, developing recommendation systems, and etc. Studies in these areas generally reported a high accuracy in analyzing the sentiment of text data. For instance, in 2002, Bo Pang, a graduate student studying computer science at Cornell University, tested the accuracy of machine-based sentiment classification in analyzing movie reviews. He compared the sentiment results from movie reviews on IMDb with the corresponding numerical ratings (Pang et al. 2002, 80). From his results, the Na?ve Bayes classifier, a popular sentiment analysis technique using simple probabilities (Explained in detail in next paragraph), obtained a 78.7% accuracy of correctly labeling movie reviews as either positive, negative, or neutral. One study done by Sarkis Agaian and Petter Kolm in 2017 focused on the accuracy of sentiment analysis in financial news. Agaian, a consultant at Capstone Investment Advisors, compared the accuracy of measuring the sentiment of business news using support vector machine, maximum entropy, and Na?ve Bayes classifiers (Agaian and Kolm 2017, 3). In detail, the Na?ve Bayes classifier relies on Bayes' Theorem of Probability, which explains the probability of an event based on the conditions that could be associated with the event. Maximum entropy finds and determines a data group by considering the most extreme scenario of the dataset. The support vector machine classifies two clusters of data (In this case, whether the word is positive or negative) by finding the best-fit curve that can cut between them. Despite using various machine learning algorithms, Agaian's results revealed an average classification accuracy of around 75%. Through this study, Agaian concluded that using sentiment classification in analyzing financial articles is promising.

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AP Research Sample B 4 of 22

USING SENTIMENT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT GOOGLE STOCK PRICES

Although a general consensus could be drawn that sentiment analysis can measure the mood of public opinions with high accuracy, there are not many studies focusing on the applications of sentiment analysis in predicting the stock market. Out of the studies that did focus on forecasting financial markets through sentiment analysis, the results generally revealed a low correlation between public sentiment and the stock market.

A research study was conducted to explore the influence of news reports on stocks using sentiment analysis in 2013. In his paper, XiaoDong Li, a graduate student at the City University of Hong Kong computer science department, and his colleagues examined the accuracy of using sentiment analysis to predict the Hang Seng Index (HSI). The Hang Seng Index, containing the top 50 companies in Hong Kong, is regarded as the main measure of market performance in the region. As for business articles, Li extracted news from FINET, an archive comprised of articles relating to both individual companies and the Hong Kong market from January 2003 to March 2008 (Li et al. 2014, 16). A dictionary-based method of sentiment analysis is then applied to the news articles. Li utilized both the Harvard IV-4 sentiment dictionary (HVD) and the Loughran-McDonald financial sentiment dictionary (LMD) in his study. Both sentiment dictionaries were compiled manually. The HVD contains over 10,000 words with 15 dimensions to each word while the LMD consists of more than 3,911 words with 6 dimensions. These dimensions include positive/negative connotation, cognitive orientation, motivation, and etc. By cross-referencing the news articles with the dictionaries, Li produced a data chart tallying articles that fit under specific dimensions. Essentially, he converted each article's sentiment into numerical values. Moreover, each article had a time stamp and a tag indicating its relevance to certain companies. This allowed Li to match the news sentiment data with changes in the Hang Seng Index of a certain day. With this dataset, Li extrapolated a correlation to predict changes in the stock price index based on the latest news articles. He found that both dictionary-based sentiment analysis

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AP Research Sample B 5 of 22

USING SENTIMENT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT GOOGLE STOCK PRICES

techniques had around the same accuracy of 57% in predicting the rise or fall of the Hang Seng Index. Considering that a random binary guess would yield a 50% accuracy, Li concluded that his model would be 7% better than a random guess.

In 2000, another study used a different approach from Li et al. to investigate this topic. Kenneth L. Fisher, the founder of Fisher Investments, and Meir Statman discovered that there was a negative relationship between investor sentiment and stock price changes (2000, 16). To obtain data about investor sentiment, Fisher surveyed three groups of stock investors: Wall Street strategists, investment news writers, and small individual investors. Respectively, these groups represented the large, medium, and small investors in the stock market. Unlike Li's method to obtain sentiment data, Fisher conducted surveys and questionnaires on each investor group. For instance, Merrill Lynch, an American wealth management group, conducted and provided the surveys on around 15 to 20 Wall Street strategists since September 1985. In the form of questionnaires, each survey measured how bullish its subjects are. In stock market terms, to be bullish is to have a high inclination of purchasing stocks. Fisher selected data surveyed monthly from September 1985 to July 1998. He then compared each group's sentiment values with movements in the S&P 500 index according to trading days. Three scatter plots (One for each investor group) visualized the dataset and displayed the correlation of the data. Though all three groups had a negative correlation between investor mood and stock price changes, only the correlations for individual investors and Wall Street strategists were statistically significant at the 1 percent level with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.05 and 0.03 respectively. Although the R-squared values suggest that investor sentiment justifies only 3 to 5 percent of S&P 500 returns, Fisher explained that the information could be useful to stock traders. According to Clarke et al. in another study about correlations between the stock market and information, an R-squared value of 0.09 gives stock traders a 5.9 percent higher accuracy in forecasting expected stock

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