APPENDIX 4 - Inverclyde



APPENDIX 4

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROFILE

Summary

The following profile provides information on population and household trends for the Inverclyde Council area and for Scotland as a whole for comparison purposes. The key evidence set out in the following sections can be summarised as follows:

• The population of Inverclyde has been in overall decline for quite some time and this decrease is likely to continue over the period of the LHS and beyond.

• General trends in the make up of the population mask significant variations in migration patterns across the LHS sub areas reflecting wide differences in social and economic circumstances.

• In common with Scotland as a whole Inverclyde has a growing older population however the proportion of older people will be significantly higher than the national average in future years.

• There are fewer children and young people in the Inverclyde population than the regional and national averages and this will have an impact in future years as there will be fewer people of working age contributing to local taxation

• There are also fewer numbers of economically active people in the Inverclyde population and this will also impact on the ability to pay for services in the future.

• A general trend of out-migration of younger, economically active, people has been noted and this trend must be reversed if services are to be maintained in line with previously noted changes in demography.

• Whilst the overall population of Inverclyde is declining, there are a growing number of households forming, particularly single person households made up of both older and younger people.

• The combined effects of a growing older population and high household formation rates have to be taken account of in future strategic planning for housing of all tenures throughout Inverclyde.

Detailed information and supporting evidence is provided in sections 1.0 to 4.0 below.

1. Estimates of Population

1. Table 1 below provides an estimate of the Inverclyde population from the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley (GCV) Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 (the HNDA). Estimates from the assessment are only available at the HNDA sub area.

Table 1: Estimate of Population by HNDA Sub Area 2008

|LA Sub Area |2008 Estimate |Inverclyde % |

|Inverclyde East |49,169 |60.9% |

|Inverclyde West |26,428 |32.7% |

|Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village |5,183 |6.4% |

|Inverclyde |80,780 |- |

Source: Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011

1.2 Table 2 below provides estimates of population at a more local level of geography with additional detail on the age of the population.

Table 2: Estimate of Population by Intermediate Geography 2010

|Intermediate Geography |Population |Children (%) |Working Age |Pensionable Age (%) |

| | | |(%) | |

|Kilmacolm Central |2,391 |20.6 |53.9 |25.5 |

|Kilmacolm, Quarrier’s, Greenock Upper East/Central |3,663 |18.7 |60.2 |21.2 |

|Inverkip and Wemyss Bay |5,582 |20.5 |65.6 |13.9 |

|Port Glasgow Upper East |4,835 |20.0 |58.5 |21.5 |

|Port Glasgow Mid, East and Central |4,738 |17.6 |60.9 |21.5 |

|Port Glasgow Upper, West and Central |5,247 |17.3 |62.6 |20.1 |

|West Braeside, East Inverkip and West Gourock |4,784 |15.4 |64.0 |20.6 |

|Greenock East |5,500 |19.8 |64.0 |16.3 |

|Bow Farm, Barrs Cottage, Cowdenknowes & Overton |4,390 |15.4 |63.3 |21.3 |

|Greenock Upper Central |4,237 |15.3 |63.4 |21.3 |

|Greenock Town Centre and East Central |5,401 |13.6 |59.6 |26.8 |

|Braeside, Branchton, Lower Larkfield and Ravenscraig |4,501 |23.8 |59.7 |16.5 |

|Lower Bow & Larkfield, Fancy Farm, Mallard Bowl |4,718 |19.3 |61.2 |19.6 |

|Greenock West and Central |5,923 |16.4 |63.0 |20.6 |

|Gourock Central, Upper East and IRH |4,320 |14.5 |62.5 |23.0 |

|Gourock Upper and West Central & Upper Larkfield |4,282 |15.4 |59.7 |24.9 |

|Gourock East, Greenock West and Lyle Road |5,258 |13.1 |55.4 |31.6 |

|Inverclyde |79,770 |17.3% |61.3% |21.4% |

|Glasgow and the Clyde Valley (2008 estimate) |1,755,310 |17.9% |63.7% |18.4% |

Source: National Records of Scotland, 2010

*Children population aged between 0 – 15, working age is population aged between 16 -64 and pensionable age is population aged 65+

1.3 It will be seen from Tables 1 and 2 above that:

• Inverclyde’s population has a slightly lower proportion of children than the GCV Region and a higher proportion of the population aged over 65 than the GCV Region as a whole. Consequently there is a lower proportion of the Inverclyde population in the working age bracket than across the GCV Region.

• There are pockets of population composition that do not conform to the local authority norm. There are notably higher proportions of elderly people in the intermediate geographies that contain Gourock and Kilmacolm and the area of Greenock Town Centre and East Central. Inverkip and Wemyss Bay have a low proportion of elderly residents and a higher than average proportion of the population in the working age category.

• The intermediate geographies that contain Kilmacolm have a higher than average proportion of children, as do parts of Larkfield (South West Greenock) and Inverkip and Wemyss Bay.

1.4 Figure 1 below illustrates the components of population change in Inverclyde and the GCV Region from 2001 – 2008. Natural change refers to the difference between births and deaths and net migration is the difference between out migration and in migration.

Figure 1: Annual Population Change 2001-2008 by Component

[pic]

Source: Glasgow and Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011

*Net migration in the chart refers to population moving in and out of the local authority area and not between the sub areas

• Overall, Inverclyde’s population has been declining at an average of -0.57% per year from 2001-2008 whilst the GCV Region has been increasing at an average annual rate of 0.04% per annum.

• There are marked differences in annual population change within the local authority area. The population in the Inverclyde West sub areas of West Greenock, Gourock and Inverkip & Wemyss Bay have increased at a far higher rate than the whole of the authority and the GCV Region. Migration from outside of the authority has been the main driver of this annual increase and is the highest rate in the GCV Region (0.99% per annum). There have been more deaths than births in Inverclyde West which has resulted in a negative natural change which is perhaps a reflection of the older demography in Gourock and West Greenock.

• The sub areas of Inverclyde East (Port Glasgow, Greenock Central East and Greenock South West) lost population at a quicker rate than any other part of the GCV Region from 2001 - 2008[1]. Migration is the main driver of this loss and the rate of loss was the greatest in the GCV Region (-1.03% per annum).

• A recent depopulation study[2] commissioned by Inverclyde Council showed that the population decline has been selective and has had a greater impact on young people, young families, and people of working age.

• The period from 2001 to 2008 was a time of relative economy stability and growth for Scotland and the UK. However, the Inverclyde population still declined over that period.

• A changing population has implications for local service provision, for the local economy, and the ability of Inverclyde to attract and retain investment. As the population changes, there can be an oversupply of the wrong type of housing which can create problems of low demand dwellings, problems of dereliction, property prices being driven down, and a reduction in revenue can lead to less housing investment. All of these factors create an environment in which it is difficult to attract investment.

2.0 Estimates of Households

2.1 Estimates of households by tenure for the GCV HNDA for 2008 are as shown in Table 3 below. However, the recent Private Sector House Condition Survey by David Adamson and Partners (June 2011) provided up to date estimates showing that there are 27,152 private sector households in 2011, which are made up of 23,544 owner occupied households and 3,517 private rented sector households[3]. There has been significant growth in the number of private rented sector households since 2008, which is likely to be a result of the dual occurrence of first-time buyer households unable to access owner occupation due to mortgage restrictions and home owners unable to sell properties and offering them for private rent to generate income.

Table 3: Household Estimates by Sub Area 2008 and 2011

|HNDA Sub Area |Social Rented Sector |Owner Occupied |Private Rented Sector|Households |

| | |Sector | | |

|Inverclyde East (2008) |8,762 |13,746 |1,241 |23,749 |

|Inverclyde West (2008) |1,247 |9,175 |741 |11133 |

|Kilmacolm & Quarriers Village (2008) |71 |2,082 |121 |2,274 |

|Inverclyde 2008 |10,050 |25,003 |2,103 |37,156 |

| | | | | |

|Inverclyde 2011 | |23,544 |3,517 | |

Source: Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011 and Inverclyde Private Sector House Condition Survey, David Adamson and Partners, 2011

2.2 Figure 2 below shows the composition of households in the social rented sector and the owner occupied sector in 2009/10.

Figure 2: Household Type in Inverclyde 2009/10

| |Owner Occupied Sector 2009/10 |

|Social Rented Sector 2009/10 | |

|[pic] |[pic] |

|[pic] |

Source: Social Rented Sector and Owner Occupied information from the Scottish Household Survey 2009/10 and Private Rented Sector information from

Inverclyde Private Sector House Condition Survey, David Adamson and Partners, 2011

2.3 Figure 2 shows that:

• There are a number of notable differences in household composition between the three sectors. The social rented sector is dominated by single person households (47% including single adult and single pensioner) and the private rented sector also has a relatively high proportion of single adults at 41% of total households. By contrast the figure for the owner occupied sector is 29% with only 12% of adults of non-pensioner age in owner occupation. This may be an issue of affordability if there is only one income in the household, i.e. many single households may not be able to afford owner occupation.

• There are a higher proportion of older households in the owner occupied sector (33%) than in the social rented sector (26%). The local authority average is 28%.

• Nearly a quarter of households in the social rented sector contain children (large family, small family, and single parent) which is slightly higher than the owner occupied sector however 41% of private rented sector households contain children living in single parent families (22%). This is far higher than the 2009/10 Scottish figure of 8% however, the difference in the dates of the sources should be noted and since 2009/10 there has been a sharp increase in the numbers of households that are renting privately.

• In terms of comparison with national averages, Inverclyde (across all tenures) has more single adult households in social renting (48% locally compared to 32% nationally) and slightly more single pensioners in owner occupation than social renting (66% locally compared to 62% nationally)[4].

2.4 Table 4 below provides a breakdown of household types in the private sector by sub area. Unfortunately, this level of detail is not available for the social rented sector.

Table 4: Household Type in the Private Sector (owner occupation and private rented sector) 2011

| |Single Person |

• In general, households in Inverclyde tend to be slightly older than households in the GCV Region. In Inverclyde, there are a higher proportion of older person households (aged 60 to 74 and 75+) and a lower proportion of younger households aged between 16 to 29 and 30 to 44. This is likely to be the impact of the selective population decline discussed earlier where people that are leaving the area are more likely to be young and are in the main household formation age groups.

2.7 Table 5 below shows the age of households by tenure for Inverclyde and for Scotland as a whole.

Table 5: Tenure of household by age of highest income householder 2009/10

| |Inverclyde | |Scotland |

|Households |Owner occupied |Social rented|Private rented |Other |

|Inverclyde East |23,749 |24,190 |24,324 |24,436 |

|Inverclyde West |11,133 |11,340 |11,402 |11,455 |

|Kilmacolm & Quarriers Village |2,274 |2,316 |2,329 |2,340 |

|Inverclyde |37,156 |37,846 |38,055 |38,231 |

|GCV Total |804,708 |859,147 |885,452 |918,408 |

Source: Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011

4.0 Economic Profile of Population and Households

Household Income

4.1 Table 7 below shows the household income for Inverclyde and the HNDA sub areas. As with other aspects of the household profile, there are marked differences across the sub areas.

Table 7: Household Income for Inverclyde and HNDA sub areas

|Area |Mean |Median |Lower Quartile |

|Inverclyde East |£24,119 |£19,334 |£11,765 |

|Inverclyde West |£38,431 |£31,250 |£21,000 |

|Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village |£50,235 |£42,299 |£24,285 |

|Inverclyde |£30,971 |£23,600 |£13,571 |

Source: CACI 2009

• The median household income for Scotland was £26,232 in 2009.

• There are large differences between the median household incomes of the sub areas. The household median income in Kilmacolm and Quarrier’s Village is almost twice the household income in the Inverclyde East sub area.

• Almost two thirds of Inverclyde’s households are in the Inverclyde East sub areas of Port Glasgow, Greenock Central East, and Greenock South West and it has the greatest impact on figure for the local authority as a whole.

• The Inverclyde Private Sector House Condition Survey (2011) reported that the median household income for the private rented sector is £15,080 per annum and for the owner occupied sector it is £27,300 per annum.

Employment

4.2 The ‘employment rate’ of an area is simply the proportion of the working age population that is in a job. It is a key labour market participation measure and one of the indicators used to assess Scotland’s progress towards the targets set out in the Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy. Table 8 below illustrates the relative rates for Inverclyde and for the whole of Scotland.

Table 8: Employment Rate for Inverclyde and Scotland 2009

| |Age 16-64 |

|Kilmacolm Central |1.5 |

|Kilmacolm, Quarriers, Greenock Upper East/Central |2.5 |

|Inverkip and Wemyss Bay |1.8 |

|Port Glasgow Upper East |7.6 |

|Port Glasgow Mid, East and Central |8.4 |

|Port Glasgow Upper, West and Central |5.0 |

|West Braeside, East Inverkip and West Gourock |2.9 |

|Greenock East |6.5 |

|Bow Farm, Barrs Cottage, Cowdenknowes and Overton |3.9 |

|Greenock Upper Central |8.0 |

|Greenock Town Centre and East Central |8.0 |

|Braeside, Branchton, Lower Larkfield and Ravenscraig |8.5 |

|Lower Bow & Larkfield, Fancy Farm, Mallard Bowl |7.3 |

|Greenock West and Central |3.7 |

|Gourock Central, Upper East and IRH |3.8 |

|Gourock Upper and West Central & Upper Larkfield |3.5 |

|Gourock East, Greenock West and Lyle Road |1.5 |

|Inverclyde |5.1% |

|Scotland |4.2% |

Source: Labour Market Statistics, Scottish Government 2010

4.4 There has been a rapid increase in the number of JSA claimants across Inverclyde, Scotland, and the UK over the past 18 months as a result of the recession. In August 2011 the working age population was 51,500 and the JSA Claimant count was 5.9% of all working age people. This is an increase of 19.6% on the same time last year (501 people). There are large variations in the claimant count rates across Inverclyde. Areas in Inverclyde West and Kilmacolm & Quarrier’s Village have a relatively low claimant count compared to the authority average and areas in Port Glasgow and in Greenock Central East have significantly higher rates of unemployment.

4.5 Table 10 below shows that average resident wages are higher than average workplace wages and the higher than average resident-to workplace ratio indicates that residents from Inverclyde have high earning jobs outside of the authority area. The average workplace wages in Inverclyde are significantly lower than both the GCV Region and Scotland as a whole. This suggests that Inverclyde has more low skill, low paid employment than neighbouring local authorities. However as the average resident wage is higher than the workplace wage it may be the case that the resident population is more skilled than the employment opportunities available locally.

Table 10: Average weekly earnings for Inverclyde and GCV Region 2009

| |Average weekly |Average weekly |resident/ |

| |wage - residence |wage - workplace |workplace ratio |

| |based 2009 |based 2009 | |

|Inverclyde |£428.80 |£388.50 |1.10 |

|GCV area |£457.30 |£457.80 |1.00 |

|Scotland |£457.00 |£455.50 |1.00 |

Source: Oxford Economics, Economic Outlook and Scenarios for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City-Region 2009

Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)

4.6 Deprivation and regeneration are long-recognised priorities in Inverclyde. This has a close relationship with housing in terms of neighbourhoods and tenure. The social sector has increasingly come to house mainly households that are income-poor or otherwise deprived, due to the impact of policies such as the Right to Buy. Spatial concentrations of deprived households and people have become closely tied to spatial concentrations of social housing. The Inverclyde Alliance produced a report on the results of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 for Inverclyde and the following key results were highlighted:

• Inverclyde has had increasing numbers of data zones in the 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% that are most deprived, making it relatively worse off between 2004 and 2009. The most deprived datazone in Inverclyde is Port Glasgow Mid, East and Central.

• The data zones in the 5% most deprived bracket contain the highest concentration of multiple deprivation and Inverclyde has the second highest local share with 15.5% of it’s datazones in the 5% most deprived data zones.

• Inverclyde has the second highest local share with 39% of its data zones in the15% most deprived in Scotland. Glasgow City has the highest proportion at 43.1%.

• Around 45% of data zones in Inverclyde are ranked in Scotland’s 20% most deprived data zones in the SIMD 2009. Inverclyde has seen an increase in the proportion of its data zones in the 10% most deprived and a decrease in data zones in the 10-20% most deprived over the three versions of the SIMD.

• The five local authorities with the largest proportion of data zones in the 15% most deprived are Glasgow City, Inverclyde, Dundee City, West Dunbartonshire, and North Ayrshire.

• On the income domain in SIMD 2009, 39 (35.5%) of Inverclyde’s 110 data zones were found in the 15% most deprived data zones in Scotland, compared to 40 (36.4%) in 2006 and 31 (28.2%) in 2004.

• The most deprived data zone in terms of income domain in Inverclyde is Greenock East.

• In the employment domain, 42 (38.2%) of Inverclyde’s 110 data zones were found in the 15% most deprived data zones in Scotland, compared to 46 (41.8%) in 2006 and 37 (33.6%) in 2004.

• The most deprived data zone on the SIMD 2009 employment domain in Inverclyde is Port Glasgow Mid, East and Central.

• Inverclyde has the second highest percentage of employment deprived people, but there has been a decrease between SIMD 2006 and SIMD 2009. This fall means other areas will see an increase in levels of deprived data zones.

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[1] Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2011

[2] Inverclyde Depopulation Study, Draft Final Report, Slims 2011

[3] A further 91 households describe as other

[4] Scottish Household Survey, Local Authority Analyses, 2009/10

[5] Glasgow Central and West had an annual household change of 2.49% from 2001-2008

[6] Glasgow North East had an annual household change of -0.63% from 2001-2008

[7] Oxford Economics, Economic Outlook and Scenarios for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City-Region 2009

[8] Wealthier and Fairer Inverclyde, Slims Consulting 2010

[9] Count of claimants of Jobseeker's Allowance. The level measures the number of claimants on the second Thursday of each month (the "count date"). The latest provisional data will be added every month. The local area claimant count is not seasonally adjusted. The denominator used to calculate local area claimant count rates for is resident population (aged 16-64).

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