The 2020-2023 Business Cycle - MHEDA
Economic Outlook: The 2020-2023 Business Cycle
Presented by Brian Beaulieu
Monday, May 6 1:30 p.m. ? 2:30 p.m.
Sponsored by
The 2020-2023 Business Cycle
BRIAN BEAULIEU CEO & CHIEF ECONOMIST
2018 Forecast Results
If you heard ITR around two years prior...
2
Duration
Accuracy
US GDP
24
US Ind. Production
34
Europe Ind. Production
24
Canada Ind. Production
27
China Ind. Production
30
Retail Sales
28
Housing (Single Family Units)
26
Employment (Private Sector)
30
99.9% 99.4% 99.2% 97.1% 99.9% 99.6% 99.2% 99.4%
ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.
First in Forecasts Since 1948
1
US Economy Stalls in 2019 and Into 2020
US Gross Domestic Product, SAAR, Chained 2012 $
US Gross Domestic Product
Quarter-over-Quarter Growth Rate
3-Month Moving Average
3/12 Rate-of-Change
20
20 6
6
4
4
18
18
2
2
16
16 0
0
-2
-2
14
14
-4
-4
12
12
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
? .$18.8 trillion ? Phase: B ? Quarter-over-Quarter: 3.0%
First in Forecasts Since 1948
-6
-6
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
2019: 0.9%
ITR Outlook
2021092:0:0.19.%8% 2022002:1:1.18.%3% 2022200122:23::1-.231.%.11%%
Source: BEA
Manage the Business Cycles to Maximize Profits
US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product
US IP
GDP
12
12
8
8
4
3.2% 4
0
0
-4
-2.9%
-4
-8 -6.9%
-5.2%
-8
-12
GDP
-12
US IP
-15.5%
-16
-16
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12) Sources: FRB, BEA
2
Availability is a Huge Advantage
World Natural Gas Production by Region
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Producers United States Russia Iran Canada Qatar China Norway Australia Algeria Saudi Arabia Rest of World World
bcm 760 694 214 184 169 142 128 105 94 94 1,184 3,768
% of World Total
20.2 18.4 5.7 4.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.5 31.3 100
Billion Cubic Meters Source: IEA
Freed Up Money Likely Not going to Capex 6 US Corporate Tax Rate and Gross Business Investment
70%
70%
Corporate Tax Rate %
60%
Gross Business Investment (% of GDP)
60%
50%
Linear (Gross Business Investment (% of GDP))
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
'60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Percent Sources: Tax Policy Center, FRED
3
Global Issues
? Business Cycle ? Tariffs
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Trade Stress Becomes Acute on the Downside of the Cycle
World IP 15
World Industrial Production Index to G7 Leading Indicator
Fair Trade
Indicator 6
10
12/12
5
Competition
4
1/12
2
0
0
-5
-10
-15 '92
World IP Indicator
'94 '96 '98 '00
First in Forecasts Since 1948
-2
-4
-6 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
Rates-of-Change Sources: CPB Netherlands Bureau For Economic Policy Analysis, OECD
4
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