The Collapse of the Afghan Government: Implications for ...

6

The Collapse

of the Afghan

Government:

Implications for

the Indo-Pacific

Kenta Aoki

organizations once again? What

courses of action will China, Russia, India, and other regional powers take?

All the above questions need to be

answered, but the critical issue

concerns the security challenges

facing the Persian Gulf and surrounding region following the Afghan government¡¯s collapse. In

what follows, I place the Taliban¡¯s

return to power within the framework of the Indo-Pacific and examine the transformation in the regional balance of power.

The Fundamental Question of

Legitimacy

O

n 15 August 2021, the Taliban seized Kabul, and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

(the US-backed Afghan government) collapsed. The instant disintegration of a political system that

the United States and its allies

had supported so vigorously over

the past two decades came as a

shock to observers around the

world.

This new development gives rise to

many questions. It is unclear, for

example, whether the Taliban will

readopt its governance style from

20 years ago based on its own interpretation of sharia. Will Afghanistan become a safe haven for

international terrorist

There is no doubt that the Taliban¡¯s sophisticated military strategy and the Afghan National Security Force¡¯s weaknesses were the

major factors behind the former¡¯s

military takeover of Kabul. The

fact that (now former) Pres. Ashraf

Ghani fled the country when Kabul

was under siege will no doubt go

down in history as a disgrace. Decisions made by two successive US

administrations regarding the

withdrawal of troops were also critical factors in explaining the collapse of the US-backed government. However, to understand the

root causes of Afghanistan¡¯s current political crisis, it is necessary

to go back to the 1990s.

The early 1990s was a dark period

Indo-Pacific Perspective ©¦ 31

Aoki

when various mujahideen (freedom

fighters) factions were engaged in

a power struggle. At that time,

warlords took money from citizens

on the street in the form of tolls,

and assaults and looting were rampant in the city.1 The Taliban of

this era had the appearance of a

political movement. The organization was a combination of mujahideen fighters and students who

had studied at madrassas. This coalition began to work under the

banner of saving the country from

civil war and corruption, and in

1996, they declared the establishment of an Islamic state. Yet after

the toppling of the Taliban regime

in 2001, the core of the new USbacked Afghan government was

composed of former warlords and

the technocratic diaspora.

The formation of this new Afghan

government, which would last until the Taliban¡¯s return to power

earlier this year, was not truly endogenous. Rather, it was largely

the creation of outside forces. Even

the process of electing the head of

the interim government in June

2002 was heavily influenced by external pressures: it was on the recommendation of the US and Pakistani intelligence agencies that Hamid Karzai was given the nod.2

Later, Karzai¡¯s and Ghani¡¯s

tendencies to govern via tribal patronage networks led to widespread

corruption in the country.

Above all, it would be difficult to

conclude that nation building in

Afghanistan¡ªsupported by the

United States, NATO, Japan, India, and other allies¡ªhas been

successful. Rather, there is a sense

of helplessness among those involved in this process. The United

States has spent USD 2 trillion in

Afghanistan since 2001, Japan has

spent USD 6.8 billion, while India

has spent more than USD 3 billion.

Now, all these investments have

come to naught.

Security Challenges Facing the

Persian Gulf and Beyond

The fall of Kabul poses a threefold

security challenge for the countries

of the Persian Gulf. First, there is

a serious risk of a humanitarian

crisis unfolding under the Taliban.

Its interim cabinet, announced on

7 September, includes 17 individuals who are on the UN Security

Council¡¯s sanction list, two of

whom are on the FBI¡¯s most

wanted list. It is highly unlikely

that the organization will be able

to establish an inclusive government in the future, and democracies will be inhibited from recognizing its interim cabinet as a legitimate government for the foreseeable future. The problem here is

that nonrecognition means an asset freeze, which will deplete

Indo-Pacific Perspective ©¦32

The Collapse of the Afghan Government: Implications for the Indo-Pacific

Afghanistan¡¯s treasury for as long

as it lasts. On 18 August, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

said that Afghanistan would not be

able to access IMF resources, including a new allocation of Special

Drawing Rights reserves, due to

the lack of clarity over the recognition of its government.3 Likewise,

the World Bank announced that it

was halting financial support to

Afghanistan amid worries about

the fate of women under Taliban

rule.4 The UN Development Programme has estimated that as

much as 97 percent of the population is at risk of sinking below the

poverty line by mid-2022 unless a

response to the country¡¯s political

and economic crises is launched

without delay.5 Failure to act

would mean a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, one consequence of

which would be that countries

around the Persian Gulf would see

massive inflows of displaced people, illicit drugs, and arms.

Second, whether the Taliban poses

a threat to neighboring countries

should be assessed carefully. Its

fighters managed to capture a

large number of state-of-the-art

US-made weapons during the

course of its takeover; if it gains

airpower, that could be a game

changer. For now, it is too early to

speculate about the threat of Taliban attacks on other countries. As

mentioned above, the organization¡¯s main objective was to restore

Islamic governance in Afghanistan;

thus, it is unlikely that the Taliban

poses a threat to neighboring countries¡ªor at least, there would be

no justification for such attacks.

However, considering that the situation in Afghanistan is volatile,

staying alert is advisable.

Third, the heightened threat of terrorism caused by the Taliban¡¯s return to power will likely necessitate future counterterrorism operations from outside powers. More

than 20 foreign terrorist organizations are operating in the country,

including al-Qaeda (AQ), the Islamic State¨CKhorasan Province

(ISKP), and Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. It is particularly notable

that many analysts believe that

the Taliban has not cut ties with

AQ. While it is true that the activities of international terrorist organizations have slowed down in

recent years, it would be imprudent to take the increased threat

lightly. In the future, the United

States may even consider collaborating with the Taliban to counter

the ISKP, especially if Washington

judges that over-the-horizon airstrikes need a local partner.6

Transformation in Regional

Balance of Power

Afghanistan has regularly been

Indo-Pacific Perspective ©¦33

Aoki

subject to the interference of great

powers. In the nineteenth century,

it was forced to play the role of a

buffer state between the Russian

Empire and British India; in the

latter half of the twentieth century, in the context of the Cold

War, it became the stage for a

proxy war between the United

States and Soviet Union; and in

the twenty-first century, it became

the front line of the US-led ¡°global

war on terror.¡± Because of its geostrategic location, Afghanistan is a

fault line of world order.

Now that the Taliban has achieved

a military victory, it is certain that

outside powers¡ªperhaps including

China and Russia¡ªwill attempt to

fill the ¡°power vacuum¡± created by

the US exit. Indeed, both China

and Russia have been establishing

channels of communication with

the Taliban for some time now. In

addition, regional powers such as

Pakistan, Iran, Qatar, and Turkey

are vying to hold the casting vote

over the future of Afghanistan. In

particular, Qatar, as a host of

peace talks, is thought to hold

some leverage over the Taliban

and is expected to play a crucial

role in bridging the communication

gap between the new government

and foreign countries.

has not been involved militarily)

plan to deal the Taliban may be

important in shaping the new government¡¯s actions. After all, the political future of Afghanistan will be

important not only regarding the

lives of its inhabitants but also as

a test of the universal values contained within the supposedly

¡°rules-based¡± regional order. The

Taliban¡¯s disregard for basic human rights cannot be tolerated

within this framework and must be

challenged if the framework is not

to be exposed as toothless. At the

same time, however, G7 countries

and their regional partners have

no choice but to continue engaging

with the Taliban, perhaps using

diplomatic recognition and humanitarian aid as bargaining chips.

Alas, it seems unlikely that the

most complicated and fundamental

issues surrounding Afghanistan¡¯s

future will be resolved any time

soon. ¡ö

Kenta Aoki

Mr. Aoki is a research fellow at the

Middle East Institute of Japan.

This work was supported by JSPS

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) Grant Number

JP21K01345.

Viewed in a wider Indo-Pacific

frame, how India (an existing regional power) and Japan (which

Indo-Pacific Perspective ©¦34

The Collapse of the Afghan Government: Implications for the Indo-Pacific

Notes

Afghanistan, Says It¡¯s ¡®Deeply Concerned¡¯ for Women,¡±

CNN, 24 August 2021, .

1 Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fun5 United Nations Development Programme, ¡°97 Percent

damentalism in Central Asia (New Haven: Yale Univer- of Afghans Could Plunge into Poverty by Mid 2022, Says

sity Press, 2000).

UNDP,¡± 9 September 2021, .

2 Steve Coll, Directorate S: The C.I.A. and America¡¯s Se6 Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of

cret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan (New York: Pen- Staff, said that the United States may coordinate with

guin Press, 2018).

the Taliban on counterterrorism strikes in Afghanistan.

3 ¡°IMF Suspends Afghanistan¡¯s Access to Fund ReSee Robert Burns and Lolita C. Baldor, ¡°Milley: US Coordination with Taliban on Strikes ¡®possible¡¯,¡± Associsources Over Lack of Clarity on Government,¡± Reuters,

ated Press, 1 September 2021, .

19 August 2021, .

4 Matt Egan, ¡°World Bank Halts Financial Support to

Indo-Pacific Perspective ©¦35

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