Missoula County Public Schools Demographic Study …
Missoula County Public Schools: POPULATION AND ENROLLMENT FORECASTS, 2019-20 THROUGH 2028-29February 2019 McKibben Demographic Research, LLCJerome McKibben, Ph.D.Rock Hill, SCj.mckibben@978-501-7069CONTENTS TOC \o "1-3" \h \z \u EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PAGEREF _Toc529136276 \h 3INTRODUCTION PAGEREF _Toc529136277 \h 4DATA PAGEREF _Toc529136278 \h 5ASSUMPTIONS PAGEREF _Toc529136279 \h 5METHODOLOGY PAGEREF _Toc529136280 \h 8REFERENCES PAGEREF _Toc529136281 \h 10Appendix A: Supplemental Tables PAGEREF _Toc529136282 \h 11Appendix B: Population Forecasts PAGEREF _Toc529136283 \h 15Appendix C: Population Pyramids PAGEREF _Toc529136284 \h 27Appendix D: Enrollment Forecasts PAGEREF _Toc529136285 \h 33 TOC \o "1-1" \h \z \u EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe resident total fertility rate for the Missoula County Public Schools over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level. (1.63 vs. the replacement level of 2.1) If the college students are excluded from the calculations, the TFR rises to 1.93Most non-college in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-4 and 25-to-34 year old age groups.The local 18-to-24 year old population continues to leave the district, going to college or moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the largest segment of the district’s out migration flow and will increase steadily over the next 10 years. The second largest migration outflow is in the 70+ age groups.The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to increase over the next 10 years is the slowing in the increase in empty nest households, the growing number of elderly housing units turning over coupled with a sustained rate of in migration of young families.Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next five years will primarily be due to small cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with larger cohorts leaving the system. The elementary enrollment will begin to slowly decrease after the 2024-25 school year.The median age of the district’s population will increase from 31.5 in 2010 to 34.2 in 2030. This is a substantial increase for a school district that contains a large universityEven if the district continues to have a sustained amount of annual new housing unit construction over the next 10 years, the rate, magnitude and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant factor affecting the amount of population and enrollment change.Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 714 students, or 7.8%, between 2018-19 and 2023-24. Total enrollment will increase by 106 students, or 1.1%, from 2023-24 to 2028-29.INTRODUCTIONBy demographic principle, distinctions are made between projections and forecasts. A projection extrapolates the past (and present) into the future with little or no attempt to take into account any factors that may impact the extrapolation (e.g., changes in fertility rates, housing patterns or migration patterns) while a forecast results when a projection is modified by reasoning to take into account the aforementioned factors. To maximize the use of this study as a planning tool, the ultimate goal is not simply to project the past into the future, but rather to assess various factors’ impact on the future. The future population and enrollment change of each school district is influenced by a variety of factors. Not all factors will influence the entire school district at the same level. Some may affect different areas at dissimilar magnitudes and rates causing changes at varying points of time within the same district. The forecaster’s judgment, based on a thorough and intimate study of the district, has been used to modify the demographic trends and factors to more accurately predict likely changes. Therefore, strictly speaking, this study is a forecast, not a projection; and the amount of modification of the demographic trends varies between different areas of the district as well as within the timeframe of the forecast. To calculate population forecasts of any type, particularly for smaller populations such as a school district, realistic suppositions must be made as to what the future will bring in terms of age specific fertility rates and residents’ demographic behavior at certain points of the life course. The demographic history of the school district and its interplay with the social and economic history of the area is the starting point and basis of most of these suppositions particularly on key factors such as the age structure of the area. The unique nature of each district's and attendance area’s demographic composition and rate of change over time must be assessed and understood to be factors throughout the life of the forecast series. Moreover, no two populations, particularly at the school district and attendance area level, have exactly the same characteristics. The manifest purpose of these forecasts is to ascertain the demographic factors that will ultimately influence the enrollment levels in the district’s schools. There are of course, other non-demographic factors that affect enrollment levels over time. These factors include, but are not limited to transfer policies within the district; student transfers to and from neighboring districts; placement of “special programs” within school facilities that may serve students from outside the attendance area; state or federal mandates that dictate the movement of students from one facility to another (No Child Left Behind was an excellent example of this factor); the development of charter schools in the district; the prevalence of home schooling in the area; and the dynamics of local private schools.Unless the district specifically requests the calculation of forecasts that reflect the effects of changes in these non-demographic factors, their influences are held constant for the life of the forecasts. Again, the main function of these forecasts is to determine what impact demographic changes will have on future enrollment. It is quite possible to calculate special “scenario” forecasts to measure the impact of school policy modifications as well as planned economic and financial changes. However in this case the results of these population and enrollment forecast are meant to represent the most likely scenario for changes over the next 10 years in the district and its attendance areas.The first part of the report will examine the assumptions made in calculating the population forecasts for the Missoula County Public Schools. Since the results of the population forecasts drive the subsequent enrollment forecasts, the assumptions listed in this section are paramount to understanding the area’s demographic dynamics. The remainder of the report is an explanation and analysis of the district's population forecasts and how they will shape the district's grade level enrollment forecasts.DATAThe data used for the forecasts come from a variety of sources. The Missoula County Public Schools provided enrollments by grade and attendance center for the school years 2010-2011 to 2018-19. Birth and death data for the years 2000 through 2017were obtained from the Montana Department of Health. The net migration values were calculated using Internal Revenue Service migration reports for the years 2000 through 2017. The data used for the calculation of migration models came from the United States Bureau of the Census, 2005 to 2010, and the models were designed using demographic and economic factors. The base age-sex population counts used are from the results of the 2010 Census. Recently the Census Bureau began releasing annual estimates of demographic variables at the block group and tract level from the American Community Survey (ACS). There has been wide scale reporting of these results in the national, state and local media. However, due to the methodological problems the Census Bureau is experiencing with their estimates derived from ACS data, particularly in areas with a population of less than 60,000, the results of the ACS are not used in these forecasts. For example, given the sampling framework used by the Census Bureau, each year only 900 of the over 29,000 current households in the district would have been included. For comparison 4,000 households in the district were included in the sample for the long form questionnaire in the 2000 Census. As a result of this small sample size, the ACS survey result from the last 5 years must be aggregated to produce the tract and block group estimates. To develop the population forecast models, past migration patterns, current age specific fertility patterns, the magnitude and dynamics of the gross migration, the age specific mortality trends, the distribution of the population by age and sex, the rate and type of existing housing unit sales, and future housing unit construction are considered to be primary variables. In addition, the change in household size relative to the age structure of the forecast area was addressed. While there was a slight drop in the average household size in the Missoula County Public Schools as well as most other areas of the state during the previous 20 years, the rate of this decline has been forecasted to slow over the next ten years.ASSUMPTIONSFor these forecasts, the mortality probabilities are held constant at the levels calculated for the year 2010. While the number of deaths in an area are impacted by and will change given the proportion of the local population over age 65, in the absence of an extraordinary event such as a natural disaster or a breakthrough in the treatment of heart disease, death rates rarely move rapidly in any direction, particularly at the school district or attendance area level. Thus, significant changes are not foreseen in district’s mortality rates between now and the year 2028. Any increases forecasted in the number of deaths will be due primarily to the general aging of the district’s population and specifically to the increase in the number of residents aged 65 and older.Similarly, fertility rates are assumed to stay fairly constant for the life of the forecasts. Like mortality rates, age specific fertility rates rarely change quickly or dramatically, particularly in small areas. Even with the recently reported rise in the fertility rates of the United States, overall fertility rates have stayed within a 10% range for most of the last 40 years. In fact, the vast majority of year to year change in an area’s number of births is due to changes in the number of women in child bearing ages (particularly ages 20-29) rather than any fluctuation in an area’s fertility rate. The resident total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of births a woman will have while living in the school district during her lifetime, is estimated to be 1.63 for the total district for the ten years of the population forecasts. A TFR of 2.1 births per woman is considered to be the theoretical “replacement level” of fertility necessary for a population to remain constant in the absence of in-migration. Therefore, in the absence of migration, fertility alone would be insufficient to maintain the current level of population and enrollment within the Missoula County Public Schools over the course of the forecast period. However, the district’s TFR is lowered by the presence of a large number of university students living in the district. College students have been included in the census population counts of the locality then attend school at since the 1950 Census and on campus students are reported in the area’s group quarters population. If the college student population is excluded from the TFR calculation, the district’s resident TFR rises to 1.92.A close examination of data for the Missoula County Public Schools has shown the age specific pattern of net migration will be nearly constant throughout the life of the forecasts. While the number of in and out migrants has changed in past years for the Missoula County Public Schools(and will change again over the next 10 years), the basic age pattern of the migrants has stayed nearly the same over the last 30 years. Based on the analysis of data it is safe to assume this age specific migration trend will remain unchanged into the future. This pattern of migration shows most of the local out-migration occurring in the 18-to-24 year old age group as young adults leave the area to go to college or move to other urbanized areas. The second group of out-migrants is those householders aged 70 and older who are downsizing their residences. Most of the local in-migration occurs in the 0-to-4 and 25-34age groups (the bulk of the which come from areas within 150 miles of the Missoula County Public Schools) primarily consisting of younger adults and their children. As the Missoula County area is not currently contemplating any major expansions or contractions, the forecasts also assume that the current economic, political, social, and environmental factors, as well as the transportation and public works infrastructure (with a few notable exceptions) of the Missoula County Public Schools and its attendance areas will remain the same through the year 2028. Below is a list of assumptions and issues that are specific to the Missoula County Public Schools These issues have been used to modify the population forecast models to more accurately predict the impact of these factors on each area’s population change. Specifically, the forecasts for the Missoula County Public Schools assume that throughout the study period: The national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter) Interest rates have reached a historic low and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays below 5.0%;The rate of mortgage approval stays at 1999-2003 levels and lenders do not return to “sub-prime” mortgage practices;There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers;The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2008 average of Missoula County for any year in the forecasts;The district averages 450 to 500 existing home sales annually over the next 10 years;All currently planned, platted, and approved housing developments are built out and completed by 2027. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2028; The unemployment rates for the Missoula County and the Missoula Metropolitan Area will remain below 6.5% for the 10 years of the forecasts;The intra district student transfer policy remains unchanged over the next 10 years;The State of Montana does not change any of its current laws or policies regarding Charter Schools, Vouchers or inter district transfers;No Charter schools open in Missoula County over the next 10 years;The rate of students transferring into and out of the Missoula County Public Schools will remain at the 2014-15 to 2018-19 average;The Missoula County Public Schools does not adopt an “open enrollment” policy any time over the next 10 years;The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts;There will be no building moratorium within the district; Businesses within the Missoula Metropolitan Area and the Missoula County Public Schools will remain viable;The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year;Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the district) will remain at their current levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 60;Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant; The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the 2004-2008 average for Missoula County.If a major employer in the district or in the Greater Missoula Metropolitan Area closes, reduces or expands its operations, the population forecasts would need to be adjusted to reflect the changes brought about by the change in economic and employment conditions. The same holds true for any type of natural disaster, major change in the local infrastructure (e.g., highway construction, water and sewer expansion, changes in zoning regulations etc.), a further economic downturn, any additional weakness in the housing market or any instance or situation that causes rapid and dramatic population changes that could not be foreseen at the time the forecasts were calculated.The high proportion of high school graduates from the Missoula County Public Schools that attend college or move to urban areas outside of the district for employment is a significant demographic factor. Their departure is a major reason for the extremely high out-migration in the 18 to 24 age group, and was taken into account when calculating these forecasts. The out-migration of graduating high school seniors is expected to continue over the period of the forecasts and the rate of out-migration has been forecasted to remain the same over the life of the forecast series. Finally, all demographic trends (i.e., births, deaths, and migration) are assumed to be linear in nature and annualized over the forecast period. For example, if 1,000 births are forecasted for a 5-year period, an equal number, or proportion of the births are assumed to occur every year, 200 per year. Actual year-to-year variations do and will occur, but overall year to year trends are expected to be constant.METHODOLOGYThe population forecasts presented in this report are the result of using the Cohort-Component Method of population forecasting (Siegel, and Swanson, 2004: 561-601) (Smith et. al. 2004). As stated in the INTRODUCTION, the difference between a projection and a forecast is in the use of explicit judgment based upon the unique features of the area under study. Strictly speaking, a cohort projection refers to the future population that would result if a mathematical extrapolation of historical trends. Conversely, a cohort-component forecast refers to the future population that is expected because of a studied and purposeful selection of the components of change (i.e., births, deaths, and migration) and forecast models are developed to measure the impact of these changes in each specific geographic area. Five sets of data are required to generate population and enrollment forecasts. These five data sets are: a base-year population (here, the 2010 Census population for the Missoula County Public Schools and its attendance areas); a set of age-specific fertility rates for the district to be used over the forecast period and its attendance areas; a set of age-specific survival (mortality) rates for the district and its attendance areas; a set of age-specific migration rates for the district and its attendance areas; and;the historical enrollment figures by grade.The most significant and difficult aspect of producing enrollment forecasts is the generation of the population forecasts in which the school age population (and enrollment) is embedded. In turn, the most challenging aspect of generating the population forecasts is found in deriving the rates of change in fertility, mortality, and migration. From the standpoint of demographic analysis, the Missoula County Public Schools is classified as a “small area” population (as compared to the population of the state of Montana or to that of the United States). Small area population forecasts are more complicated to calculate because local variations in fertility, mortality, and migration may be more irregular than those at the regional, state or national scale. Especially challenging is the forecast of the migration rates for local areas, because changes in the area's socioeconomic characteristics can quickly change from past and current patterns (Peters and Larkin, 2002.)The population forecasts for Missoula County Public Schools were calculated using a cohort-component method with the populations divided into male and female groups by five-year age cohorts that range from 0-to-4 years of age to 85 years of age and older (85+). Age- and sex-specific fertility, mortality, and migration models were constructed to specifically reflect the unique demographic characteristics of each of the attendance areas in the Missoula County Public Schools.The enrollment forecasts were calculated using a modified average survivorship method. Average survivor rates (i.e., the proportion of students who progress from one grade level to the next given the average amount of net migration for that grade level) over the previous five years of year-to-year enrollment data were calculated for grades two through twelve. This procedure is used to identify specific grades where there are large numbers of students changing facilities for non-demographic factors, such as private school transfers or enrollment in special programs.The survivorship rates were modified or adjusted to reflect the average rate of forecasted in and out migration of 5-to-9, 10-to-14 and 15-to-17 year old cohorts to each of the attendance centers in Missoula County Public Schools for the period 2010 to 2015. These survivorship rates then were adjusted to reflect the forecasted changes in age-specific migration the district should experience over the next five years. These modified survivorship rates were used to project the enrollment of grades 2 through 12 for the period 2015 to 2020. The survivorship rates were adjusted again for the period 2020 to 2025 to reflect the predicted changes in the amount of age-specific migration in the district for the period.The forecasted enrollments for kindergarten and first grade are derived from the 5-to-9 year old population of the age-sex population forecast at the elementary attendance center district level. This procedure allows the changes in the incoming grade sizes to be factors of forecasted population change and not an extrapolation of previous class sizes. Given the potentially large amount of variation in Kindergarten enrollment due to parental choice, changes in the state's minimum age requirement, and differing district policies on allowing children to start Kindergarten early, first grade enrollment is deemed to be a more accurate and reliable starting point for the forecasts. (McKibben, 1996) The level of the accuracy for both the population and enrollment forecasts at the school district level is estimated to be +2.0% for the life of the forecasts. REFERENCESMcKibben, J.The Impact of Policy Changes on Forecasting for School Districts. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, December 1996McKibben, J., M. Gann, and K. Faust.The Baby Boomlet's Role in Future College Enrollment. American Demographics, June 1999.Peters, G. and R. LarkinPopulation Geography. 7th Edition. Dubuque, IA: Kendall Hunt Publishing. 2002.Siegel, J. and D. SwansonThe Methods and Materials of Demography: Second Edition, Academic Press: New York, New York. 2004.Smith, S., J. Tayman and D. SwansonState and Local Population Projections, Academic Press, New York, New York. 2001.Appendix A: Supplemental TablesTable 1: Forecasted Elementary Area Population Change, 2010 to 2020201020152010-2015Change20202015-2020Change2010-2020ChangeChief Charlo4,6864,9305.2%5,1304.1%9.5%Jeannette Rankin7,4737,9005.7%8,4106.5%12.5%Franklin6,5356,8605.0%7,1604.4%9.6%Hawthorne6,2226,5705.6%6,8704.6%10.4%Lewis and Clark8,7208,9702.9%9,2102.7%5.6%Lowell7,8078,3106.4%8,7405.2%12.0%Paxson12,02812,2902.2%12,5902.4%4.7%Rattlesnake8,2898,4802.3%8,6702.2%4.6%Russell4,9875,2405.1%5,4504.0%9.3%District Total66,74769,5504.2%72,2303.9%8.2%Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 CensusHH w/ Pop Under 18% HH w/ Pop Under 18Total HouseholdsHousehold PopulationPersons Per HouseholdChief Charlo63536.0%176446792.65Jeannette Rankin104038.6%269573752.74Franklin65621.2%308964562.09Hawthorne73227.0%270861682.28Lewis and Clark92023.8%385987142.26Lowell67916.8%403175101.86Paxson78416.7%469896742.06Rattlesnake87924.2%362981702.25Russell59026.1%226049872.21District Total691524.1%28733637332.22Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 CensusPercentage of Householders aged 35-54Percentage of Householders aged 65+Percentage of Householders who own homesChief Charlo38.3%15.2%73.3%Jeannette Rankin42.1%17.6%76.1%Franklin31.0%16.0%47.8%Hawthorne33.7%18.2%53.2%Lewis and Clark26.1%19.8%50.9%Lowell27.4%10.3%25.8%Paxson27.1%12.4%38.5%Rattlesnake34.1%20.6%63.9%Russell30.5%19.7%47.4%District Total31.3%16.3%50.3%Table 4: Percentage of Households that are Single Person Households and Single Person Households that are over age 65 by Elementary Area , 2010 CensusPercentage of Single Person HouseholdsPercentage of Single Person Households and are 65+Chief Charlo20.1%5.5%Jeannette Rankin16.4%5.7%Franklin38.4%9.0%Hawthorne31.3%8.9%Lewis and Clark28.5%9.3%Lowell47.2%7.6%Paxson38.2%6.1%Rattlesnake30.2%8.7%Russell33.3%9.2%District Total33.0%7.8%Table 5: Elementary Enrollment (K-5), 2018, 2023, 2028201820232018-2023Change20282023-2028Change2018-2028ChangeChief Charlo414 390 -5.8% 366 -6.2%-11.6%Jeannette Rankin497 573 15.3% 596 4.0%19.9%Franklin295 335 13.6% 330 -1.5%11.9%Hawthorne405 416 2.7% 409 -1.7%1.0%Lewis and Clark477 478 0.2% 460 -3.8%-3.6%Lowell298 312 4.7% 327 4.8%9.7%Paxson477 513 7.5% 478 -6.8%0.2%Rattlesnake475 437 -8.0% 429 -1.8%-9.7%Russell354 351 -0.8% 344 -2.0%-2.8%District Total3,692 3,805 3.1% 3,739 -1.7%1.3%Table 6: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Area: 2010 CensusUnder 1year1 year2 years3 years4 years5 years6 years7 years8 years9 years10 yearsChief Charlo4472726168546568746961Jeannette Rankin9385115113881219712311113295Franklin8891867967525551526449Hawthorne8690968569867056546267Lewis and Clark10086959792767879839674Lowell103921068985656864514942Paxson8890677680848083647555Rattlesnake9078867695919988867774Russell6266726854435958405653District Total753750794743698672671669615679570Table 7: Comparison of District Resident Enrollment by Grade with 2010 Census Counts by Age, 2014-20182010 CensusUnder 1 year1 year2 years3 years4 years5 years6 years7 years8 years9 years10 years11 years12 years13 yearsMissoula Public Schools7537507947436986726716696156795706305865882018 Enrollment611635628598611513993938911892?81.2%84.7%79.1%80.5%87.6%76.3%148%140%148%131%2017 Enrollment608641637609618524542946916925890?80.8%85.5%80.2%82.0%88.6%78.0%80.8%142%149%136%156%2016 Enrollment593646644596604522560525928970912863?78.8%86.2%81.1%80.3%86.6%77.7%83.5%78.5%151%143%160%137%2015Enrollment595646648611617522565511524975912899851?79.1%86.2%81.6%82.3%88.5%77.7%84.3%76.4%85.3%144%160%143%145%2014Enrollment642659643623517565490526533921934876831?85.7%83.0%86.6%89.3%76.9%84.3%73.3%85.6%78.5%162%148%150%141%First grade cohorts are in redAppendix B: Population ForecastsMissoula County Public Schools Total Population201020152020202520300-43,7363,8804,0103,8003,7405-93,3053,4503,7303,8803,72010-143,0233,2803,4003,6903,85015-195,1835,0905,2205,3705,59020-249,6939,6109,5609,6009,61025-296,9357,0306,9806,8906,97030-345,1255,4705,7505,6805,61035-393,6904,3204,6804,9404,92040-443,5273,5104,0704,4204,71045-493,8953,4303,3603,9304,27050-544,2033,7803,2603,2303,81055-594,1974,0603,6403,1703,10060-643,3523,9703,7903,3602,94065-692,2472,9803,5403,4103,01070-741,4942,0502,6803,2503,11075-791,1801,3901,9302,5103,07080-841,0101,1801,3801,9202,46085+9561,0701,2501,4401,830Total66,74769,55072,23074,49076,320Median Age31.532.232.833.534.2Births3,9604,0003,9003,830Deaths1,7601,9802,2002,550Natural Increase2,2002,0201,7001,280Net Migration610600590550Change2,8102,6202,2901,830Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Chief Charlo Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-43162802902802805-933036032033032010-1430633036032033015-1936829030034030020-2436932028029032025-2940039034028030030-3429943041036031035-3929134047044040040-4430329033046044045-4932530028033046050-5435132029028033055-5932234032029027060-6430331033030028065-6918228028030028070-747718024026027075-79727016022024080-8438707016022085+34306070120Total4,6864,9305,1305,3105,470Median Age34.336.037.840.242.0Births290280280270Deaths 100 130 140 190 Natural Increase 190 150 140 80 Net Migration 70 70 60 60 Change 260 220 200 140 Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Jeanette Rankin Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-44935706405905705-958251065071065010-1452661051065071015-1958650058049061020-2452754048055046025-2940855057050057030-3446445059061054035-3948952050064066040-4456051052052066045-4956556050052052050-5451455055049051055-5953050055053048060-6439649046050049065-6928634042039044070-7418927032040037075-7915017026030037080-8411115017026029085+97110140180230Total7,4737,9008,4108,8309,130Median Age36.537.136.937.538.4Births490510510500Deaths200240270330Natural Increase290270240170Net Migration80100120110Change370370360280Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Franklin Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-44114304303903605-927427031034033010-1425726025029033015-1932430030030033020-2491080074074073025-2982783072066066030-3465773074064058035-3937657065066056040-4433938057059061045-4940934037055057050-5441439033036054055-5936939038031034060-6428635037036029065-6919926032035033070-7413718024029032075-7912713017023028080-8412213013017022085+97120140150180Total6,5356,8607,1607,3807,560Median Age32.033.735.737.539.1Births460450420390Deaths180200220250Natural Increase280250200140Net Migration40404040Change320290240180Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Hawthorne Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-44244304704104005-932733035038035010-1433231031033037015-1937241037037038020-2468573071066061025-2961660065063061030-3450652052057056035-3934743046046053040-4431534043046046045-4942732034042044050-5442843030034042055-5941742041030033060-6433340040039029065-6923031038038038070-7415122030036036075-7912715021028034080-849312014021028085+96100120150190Total6,2226,5706,8707,1007,300Median Age33.534.635.637.238.5Births440460420400Deaths170200220270Natural Increase270260200130Net Migration60505040Change330310250170Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Lewis and Clark Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-44694504704404305-941243043043041010-1443741043043043015-1942946043045044020-241,5531,4701,5001,4701,49025-2987691083084082030-3460471074065068035-3941545055059051040-4440641044055058045-4945640041044055050-5451645039040044055-5956850044039040060-6446455049042037065-6932044052047040070-7422931041049043075-7920921029039047080-8419421021029038085+163200230240290Total8,7208,9709,2109,3809,520Median Age31.532.533.534.835.6Births490500470470Deaths280310330370Natural Increase210190140100Net Migration40404040Change250230180140Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Lowell Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-44755105105105105-929732035037037010-1421228031033035015-1935339046048051020-241,4381,4901,4701,5401,56025-291,2841,2801,2601,2301,30030-3482180086083080035-3947852056062058040-4441342046050056045-4937741041046049050-5445637040040045055-5939644037040039060-6429339043035038065-6914125033038030070-7411514023032036075-799311012022029080-847410011012021085+9190100120130Total7,8078,3108,7409,1809,540Median Age29.429.630.130.831.1Births610590610610Deaths160180210230Natural Increase450410400380Net Migration30303030Change480440430410Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Paxton Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-44024604504504105-938640050051049010-1432436038048049015-192,0052,0702,0102,0302,12020-242,8642,9302,9702,9102,92025-291,3241,3101,4601,5001,44030-3479673081096099035-3955258048057071040-4449748050040049045-4946544044045036050-5453443040039041055-5963250039035034060-6444959044034031065-6928138051038028070-7415424034047034075-7912214023030045080-849912014023030085+142130140150210Total12,02812,29012,59012,87013,060Median Age25.124.925.025.225.3Births420430440400Deaths230250270310Natural Increase19018017090Net Migration110100100100Change300280270190Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Rattlesnake Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-44254304204104305-944148049047047010-1439345049051049015-1941440047051053020-2472669072075079025-2971765061066067030-3455867061057060035-3947252062055052040-4445244048059053045-4958142042046057050-5465955041042045055-5966465053041041060-6458762059049037065-6942053055052042070-7428337045047045075-7915926035042045080-8417316026034042085+165190200240320Total8,2898,4808,6708,7908,890Median Age40.039.539.239.739.5Births420400400420Deaths290300350410Natural Increase1301005010Net Migration70807070Change20018012080Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Russell Elementary Total Population201020152020202520300-43213203303203505-925635033034033010-1423727036035035015-1933227030040037020-2462164069069073025-2948351054059060030-3442043047049055035-3927139039041045040-4424224034035038045-4929024019030031050-5433129019015026055-5929932025019014060-6424027028021016065-6918819023024018070-7415914015019021075-7912115014015018080-8410612015014014085+72100120140160Total4,9875,2405,4505,6505,850Median Age32.933.031.931.431.8Births320310310340Deaths150170190190Natural Increase170140120150Net Migration80707060Change250210190210Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.Appendix C: Population PyramidsAppendix D: Enrollment ForecastsMissoula Public Schools: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K59557862460461861961861961661660760359660016465935776396286366376336346316316226166082648646608575640631644645641642639640630624361164464161157363963264564664264364264363346175966376356035686356276406416376396386385522604609628631597567634628640641636638636Total: K-53,6393,6613,6963,6923,6933,6903,7333,8033,8053,8123,7983,7823,7613,739656552261859863363260056464363364564764164375115605246115976326305985626416316436456398533524525542513603589621620589553631621632Total: 6-81,6001,6071,6841,7221,8331,8531,8511,7821,7941,8271,9071,9111,9181,91699759289469939211,0821,0711,1291,1141,0581,0031,1401,1311,129109129709169389799071,0651,0561,1121,0971,0421,0011,1391,129118999129259119139538811,0351,0251,0791,0651,0129721,105128518638908928928929318611,0121,0021,0521,041988950Total: 9-123,6373,6733,6773,7343,7053,8343,9484,0814,2634,2364,1624,1944,2304,313Total: K-128,8768,9419,0579,1489,2319,3779,5329,6669,8629,8759,8679,8879,9099,968Total: K-128,8768,9419,0579,1489,2319,3779,5329,6669,8629,8759,8679,8879,9099,968Change11665116918314615513419613-8202259%-Change1.32%0.73%1.30%1.00%0.91%1.58%1.65%1.41%2.03%0.13%-0.08%0.20%0.22%0.60%Total: K-53,6393,6613,6963,6923,6933,6903,7333,8033,8053,8123,7983,7823,7613,739Change-102235-41-3437027-14-16-21-22%-Change-0.3%0.60%0.96%-0.1%0.03%-0.08%1.17%1.88%0.05%0.18%-0.37%-0.42%-0.56%-0.58%Total: 6-81,6001,6071,6841,7221,8331,8531,8511,7821,7941,8271,9071,9111,9181,916Change517773811120-2-6912338047-2%-Change3.29%0.44%4.79%2.26%6.45%1.09%-0.11%-3.7%0.67%1.84%4.38%0.21%0.37%-0.10%Total: 9-12 3,637 3,673 3,677 3,734 3,705 3,834 3,948 4,081 4,263 4,236 4,162 4,194 4,230 4,313 Change36457-29129114133182-27-74323683%-Change0.99%0.11%1.55%-0.78%3.48%2.97%3.37%4.46%-0.63%-1.75%0.77%0.86%1.96%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment. Chief Charlo Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K69735962626160595857555655571787370616465646362616058575627580766562656766656463626059384778077666367696867666564624828374777867646870696868676654985907275766663676968676766Total: K-5437471449414407397388388390387380376370366Total: K-5437471449414407397388388390387380376370366Change34-22-35-7-10-902-3-7-4-6-4% Change7.8%-4.7%-7.8%-1.7%-2.5%-2.3%0.0%0.5%-0.8%-1.8%-1.1%-1.6%-1.1%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Jeanette Rankin Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K767971858688909294969593929018169817887899193959799989796286867581809091939597991009998386868576848393949698100102103102485868484788785959698100102104105579839193878089879798100101103105Total: K-5493489487497502517539554573584593596598596Total: K-5493489487497502517539554573584593596598596Change-4-21051522151911932-2% Change-0.8%-0.4%2.1%1.0%3.0%4.3%2.8%3.4%1.9%1.5%0.5%0.3%-0.3%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Franklin Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K39415652525353545455545352511403738575454555556565756555424840413658555556565757585756340485049375957575858595859584533849474635575555565655555552949415448473658565657575656Total: K-5249253275295295303313335335338340337334330Total: K-5249253275295295303313335335338340337334330Change42220081022032-3-3-4% Change1.6%8.7%7.3%0.0%2.7%3.3%7.0%0.0%0.9%0.6%-0.9%-0.9%-1.2%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Hawthorne Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K64756969737372727171706968691826767727374747373727271706927677616569707272717170717069354836958626667696968686869684585383675660656668686767676855155567464545863646666666666Total: K-5385410405405397397408415416416413412410409Total: K-5385410405405397397408415416416413412410409Change25-50-8011710-3-1-2-1% Change6.5%-1.2%0.0%-2.0%0.0%2.8%1.7%0.2%0.0%-0.7%-0.2%-0.5%-0.2%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Lewis and Clark Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K80738481787778777776757474751897971868282818180807978777628698817288848483838282818079379848780718683838282818180794857578867567827979787878777657788747283726580777776767675Total: K-5496497475477477468473483478475471468464460Total: K-5496497475477477468473483478475471468464460Change1-2220-9510-5-3-4-3-4-4% Change0.2%-4.4%0.4%0.0%-1.9%1.1%2.1%-1.0%-0.6%-0.8%-0.6%-0.9%-0.9%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Lowell Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K56485950535455565657575858591486143565252535354545555565625235604554505152525353545455346454154425148495050515253534493452465543535051525252535454138364744524251494950494950Total: K-5292261291298300302302311312315318320323327Total: K-5292261291298300302302311312315318320323327Change-313072209133234% Change-11%11.5%2.4%0.7%0.7%0.0%3.0%0.3%1.0%1.0%0.6%0.9%1.2%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Paxton Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K73668281848382818078777675741806678858687868483828079787727480717684858887858483818079375787576788787908987868583824568172847577858588878584838156057767587787988889190888785Total: K-5418428454477494497507515513509501493486478Total: K-5418428454477494497507515513509501493486478Change102623173108-2-4-8-8-7-8% Change2.4%6.1%5.1%3.6%0.6%2.0%1.6%-0.4%-0.8%-1.6%-1.6%-1.4%-1.6%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Rattlesnake Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K83718968737372727171706968701878276867274747373727271706927980887684717373727271717069370748488788772747473737373724847380828979897375757475757558089667580867787727474737474Total: K-5483469483475476470457452437437434432430429Total: K-5483469483475476470457452437437434432430429Change-1414-81-6-13-5-150-3-2-2-1% Change-2.9%3.0%-1.7%0.2%-1.3%-2.8%-1.1%-3.3%0.0%-0.7%-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Russell Elementary: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29K55525556575756565555545554551615953585859595858575756565527270555961616363626261626060377697053555758606059595859574657365625153555658585758575855660796663525557586060596059Total: K-5386383377354345339346350351351348348346344Total: K-5386383377354345339346350351351348348346344Change-3-6-23-9-67410-30-2-2% Change-0.8%-1.6%-6.1%-2.5%-1.7%2.1%1.2%0.3%0.0%-0.9%0.0%-0.6%-0.6%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment. Porter Middle School: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29615716720019023621120718423222823123423223171411561711961912372122081852332292322352338163147149168193188232208204181228224227230Total: 6-8461470520554620636651600621642688690694694Total: 6-8461470520554620636651600621642688690694694Change95034661615-51212146240% Change1.95%10.6%6.54%11.9%2.58%2.36%-7.8%3.50%3.38%7.17%0.29%0.58%0.00%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Meadow Hill Middle School: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29617914917920118217816416616417517918017918271641761521772001811761621641621731771781778153172177144173196177172159161159170173174Total: 6-8496497508522555555517500487498511527530533Total: 6-8496497508522555555517500487498511527530533Change11114330-38-17-1311131633% Change0.20%2.21%2.76%6.32%0.00%-6.9%-3.29%-2.60%2.26%2.61%3.13%0.57%0.57%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Washington Middle School: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-29622920623920721524322921424723023523323023072062282012382062142422282132462292342322298208206216201237205212240226211244227232230Total: 6-8643640656646658662683682686687708694694689Total: 6-8643640656646658662683682686687708694694689Change-316-1012421-14121-140-5% Change-0.5%2.50%-1.52%1.86%0.61%3.17%-0.2%0.59%0.15%3.06%-2.0%0.00%-0.7%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Hellgate High School: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-299340319293321297351303314355334312361336343102853263172983182943473003113513313153653391129628929932229231228834029430534432430935812323271284302319289309285337291302341321306Total: 9-121,2441,2051,1931,2431,2261,2461,2471,2391,2971,2811,2891,3411,3311,346Total: 9-121,2441,2051,1931,2431,2261,2461,2471,2391,2971,2811,2891,3411,3311,346Change-39-1250-17201-858-16852-1015% Change-3.1%-1.0%4.19%-1.4%1.63%0.08%-0.6%4.68%-1.2%0.62%4.03%-0.8%1.13%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Big Sky High School: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-299283294295311328376367452406398353445437431102752952852813053213683604433983903514434351127028928026126729030535034242137837133342112249267281272251256278293336328404363356320Total: 9-121,0771,1451,1411,1251,1511,2431,3181,4551,5271,5451,5251,5301,5691,607Total: 9-121,0771,1451,1411,1251,1511,2431,3181,4551,5271,5451,5251,5301,5691,607Change68-4-162692751377218-2053938% Change6.31%-0.4%-1.4%2.31%7.99%6.03%10.4%4.95%1.18%-1.3%0.33%2.55%2.42%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Seeley-Swan High School: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-2993025252222262927262424242626102428221719192326242321232325112326262217191923252423212323123023272722171919232624232123Total: 9-121071021008880819095989792919397Total: 9-121071021008880819095989792919397Change-5-2-12-81953-1-5-124% Change-4.7%-2.0%-12%-9.1%1.25%11.1%5.56%3.16%-1.0%-5.2%-1.1%2.20%4.30%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.Sentinel High School: Total Enrollment2015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-299322290333339274329372336327302314310332329103283212923423372733273703343253003123083301131030832030633733226932236432932029630730312249302298291300330325264316357322314290301Total: 9-121,2091,2211,2431,2781,2481,2641,2931,2921,3411,3131,2561,2321,2371,263Total: 9-121,2091,2211,2431,2781,2481,2641,2931,2921,3411,3131,2561,2321,2371,263Change122235-301629-149-28-57-24526% Change0.99%1.80%2.82%-2.4%1.28%2.29%-0.1%3.79%-2.1%-4.3%-1.9%0.41%2.10%Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment. ................
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