Dr. David Kelly, CFA

Global Market Insights Strategy Team

Americas

Europe

Asia

Gabriela Santos New York

Meera Pandit, CFA New York

Jordan Jackson New York

Mary Park Durham New York

Erin Erdoes New York

Dr. David Kelly, CFA New York

Jack Manley New York

Stephanie Aliaga New York

Hugh Gimber, CFA London

Aaron Hussein, CAIA London

Max McKechnie London

Brandon Hall New York

Natasha May London

Marina Valentini S?o Paulo

Katie Korngiebel New York

Zara Nokes London

Karen Ward London

Vincent Juvyns Luxembourg

Tilmann Galler, CFA Frankfurt

Maria Paola Toschi Milan

Marcella Chow Hong Kong

Ian Hui Hong Kong

Jennifer Qiu Hong Kong

Tai Hui Hong Kong

Shogo Maekawa Tokyo

Fumiaki Morioka Tokyo

Chaoping Zhu, CFA Shanghai

Elena Domecq Madrid

Raisah Rasid Singapore

Arthur Jiang Shanghai

Lucia Gutierrez Mellado Madrid

Sahil Gauba Mumbai

Agnes Lin Taipei

Kerry Craig, CFA Melbourne

S&P 500 Price Index

6,200 5,800 5,400 5,000 4,600 4,200

Characteristic Index Level P/E Ratio (fwd.) Dividend Yield 10-yr. Treasury

3/24/2000 10/9/2007 2/19/2020

1,527

1,565

3,386

25.2x

15.1x

19.2x

1.4%

1.9%

1.9%

6.2%

4.7%

1.6%

1/3/2022 4,797 21.4x 1.3% 1.6%

8/27/2024 5,626 21.2x 1.4% 3.8%

Aug. 27, 2024 P/E (fwd.) = 21.2x

5,626

Jan. 3, 2022 P/E (fwd.) = 21.4x

4,797

+114%

+57%

3,800 3,400 3,000 2,600

+401%

Feb. 19, 2020 P/E (fwd.) = 19.2x

3,386

-34%

-25%

Oct. 12, 2022 P/E (fwd.) = 15.7x

3,577

2,200 1,800

Mar. 24, 2000 P/E (fwd.) = 25.2x

1,527

Oct. 9, 2007 P/E (fwd.) = 15.1x

1,565

Mar. 23, 2020 P/E (fwd.) = 13.3x

2,237

1,400 1,000

600

-49%

+106%

Dec. 31, 1996 P/E (fw d.) = 15.9x

741

+101%

-57% Oct. 9, 2002 P/E (fw d.) = 14.1x

777

Mar. 9, 2009 P/E (fwd.) = 10.4x

677

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E ratio

30x

Valuation measure Description

28x

P/E

Forward P/E

CAPE

Shiller's P/E

26x

Div. Yield

Dividend yield

P/B

Price to book

24x

P/CF

Price to cash flow

EY Spread

EY minus Baa yield

22x

+1 Std. dev.: 19.99x 20x

Latest

21.21x 35.57x 1.38% 4.39x 16.26x -1.04%

30-year avg.*

Std. dev.

over/under-valued

16.73x

1.37

27.90x

1.26

1.99%

1.74

3.16x

1.52

11.24x

2.17

0.05%

0.59

18x 30-year average: 16.73x

16x

14x

-1 Std. dev.: 13.48x 12x

10x

8x

'94

'96

'98

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

'18

'20

Aug. 27, 2024: 21.21x

'22

'24

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