Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2014-2024

Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2014-2024

Contents

1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6. 1.7. 1.8. 1.9. 1.9.1. 1.9.2. 1.9.3. 1.9.4. 1.10. 1.10.1. 1.10.2. 1.10.3. 1.10.4. 1.11.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The value market for electric vehicles EVs of all types Profits League table of largest EV manufacturers Market sectors and technology trends Small and Medium Enterprises SME come to the fore Numbers of manufacturers Stronger value growth, hybrids gain value share Mark ups through the value chain Electric cars ? the most unpredictable market

Pure electric cars Car-like vehicles not homologated as cars The most unpredictable market Market drivers Market by territory Global China Pure electric vehicles in Europe USA Lessons from three EV events in late 2013

2. 2.1. 2.1.1. 2.1.2. 2.1.3. 2.2. 2.3. 2.3.1. 2.3.2. 2.3.3. 2.4. 2.4.1. 2.4.2. 2.5. 2.6. 2.7. 2.7.1. 2.7.2.

INTRODUCTION Definitions and scope of this report

Organisations involved in the EV industry value chain Commonality Key components and systems Pure vs hybrid; on-road economics Hybrid electric vehicles Here come range extenders Hybrids at no price penalty Born electric ? in-wheel electric motors Born electric ? smart skin, structural components Smart skin Structural components Objectives Benefits Electric vehicles become less poisonous How green are electric vehicles really? Contrast global automotive production 2012: major polluter

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Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2014-2024

3.

HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS

71

3.1.

What is included

71

3.2.

Challenges

71

3.3.

Listing of manufacturers

72

3.3.1.

Statistics for all types of industrial lift truck

72

3.3.2.

Manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs

75

3.4.

Market size

76

3.5.

Market forecasts 2013-2024

76

4.

LIGHT INDUSTRIAL, BUSES AND OTHER COMMERCIAL EVS

77

4.1.

What is included

77

4.1.1.

Sub categories

78

4.1.2.

Buses

79

4.1.3.

Vans, pick-up trucks and larger on-road trucks

79

4.2.

Market drivers

82

4.2.1.

Governments get involved

83

4.3.

Important initiatives

83

4.4.

EVs for local services

84

4.5.

Airport EVs: Ground Support Equipment GSE

84

4.6.

Small people-movers

85

4.7.

Light industrial aids

86

4.8.

Listing of manufacturers

87

4.9.

Market forecasts 2013-2024

90

5.

MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED

93

5.1.

Compelling and enduring need

93

5.2.

The demographic time-bomb

93

5.2.1.

Ageing population, obesity and the dependent elderly

94

5.2.2.

Laws make mobility easier

95

5.3.

Types of mobility vehicle

95

5.3.1.

Growth by new market segments

96

5.3.2.

Interchina Industry Group China

98

5.4.

Market drivers

99

5.4.1.

Geographical distribution

99

5.4.2.

Needs creating new segments

100

5.4.3.

What is driving regional differences?

101

5.4.4.

Pride Mobility, USA

102

5.5.

Listing of manufacturers

102

5.6.

Market forecasts 2013-2024

105

5.6.1.

Growth by creating new markets

105

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Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2014-2024

6.

TWO WHEELED EVS AND ALLIED VEHICLES

107

6.1.

What is included

107

6.1.1.

China - unprecedented growth of electric two wheelers

107

6.1.2.

Other countries

108

6.2.

Prices and performances compared

109

6.2.2.

Hybrid motorcycles

111

6.3.

Market drivers

112

6.3.1.

Bicycles and electric bicycles

112

6.3.2.

The big winners in western markets

113

6.4.

Statistics for all bicycles

115

6.5.

Listing of manufacturers

115

6.5.1.

China

117

6.6.

Market forecasts 2013-2024

119

7.

CAR-LIKE VEHICLES NOT HOMOLOGATED AS CARS: MICROEV, QUADRICYCLE,

E-TRIKE, NEV, GOLF CAR

121

7.1.

Many names, common factors

121

7.2.

Car-like vehicles that evade restrictions, taxes and other costs

124

7.3.

Estrima Bir? MicroEV Quadricycle removable battery

126

7.4.

Philippines: big new commitments to e-trikes

128

7.5.

Listing of manufacturers beyond golf cars

130

7.6.

Golf cars

133

7.6.1.

What is included

133

7.6.2.

Market drivers

133

7.6.3.

Prices and profits

134

7.6.4.

Listing of manufacturers

135

7.6.5.

Market forecasts 2013-2024

135

8.

CARS

137

8.1.

Adoption of electric cars

137

8.2.

Rapid increase in number of manufacturers

143

8.3.

Providing charging infrastructure

147

8.3.1.

Recharging points

147

8.3.2.

Battery changing points

148

8.3.3.

Can the grid cope?

148

8.4.

Market 2013-2024

149

8.5.

National targets for plug-in (PHEV, BEV) on road vehicle sales 2010-2020

151

8.5.1.

United Kingdom

153

9.

PURE ELECTRIC CARS

155

9.1.

D?j? Vu

156

9.1.1.

Pure electric cars are a necessary part of the range?

161

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Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2014-2024

9.2.

Examples of pure EV cars

161

9.2.1.

Renault-Nissan Alliance France, Japan

161

9.2.2.

China

162

9.2.3.

High performance pure EVs ? Tesla USA

162

9.2.4.

Pininfarina Bollor? Bluecar France, Italy

163

9.2.5.

REVA India

164

9.2.6.

Club Car USA

165

9.2.7.

Toyota Japan

166

10.

HYBRID CARS

169

10.1.

Construction and advantages of hybrids

169

10.2.

Evolution

169

10.3.

Chevrolet Volt USA

170

10.4.

Ford hybrids USA

171

10.5.

Market drivers

171

10.5.1.

Leading indicators

171

10.6.

History of hybrids and planned models

172

11.

MILITARY

181

11.1.

Examples of military EVs

181

11.1.1.

Hummer USA / China

182

11.1.2.

Quantum Technologies USA Aggressor AMV

182

11.1.3.

US Army trucks etc ? ZAP, Columbia ParCar USA

183

11.1.4.

Oshkosh Truck Corp USA

183

11.1.5.

Plug-in trucks ? BAE Systems UK

185

11.1.6.

Electric robot vehicles USA

186

11.1.7.

UQM unmanned combat vehicle USA

186

11.1.8.

Balqon Corporation

186

11.2.

Electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)

187

11.2.1.

Small electrical UAVs

188

11.2.2.

SUAV batteries

188

11.2.3.

The most successful electric UAV

189

11.2.4.

Micro nano air vehicles

191

11.2.5.

Large electrical UAVs

192

11.2.6.

COM-BAT robot bat USA

193

11.3.

Examples of military EVs ? in the water

194

11.3.1.

US Naval Undersea Warfare Center

194

11.4.

Manufacturers of military EVs

195

11.5.

Market forecasts 2013-2024

196

12.

MARINE

199

12.1.1.

Hybrid and pure electric tugboats

199

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Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2014-2024

12.2.

Market segments

202

12.2.1.

Total market

202

12.2.2.

Underwater

202

12.2.3.

On the water

203

12.3.

Commonality with land EVs

204

12.3.1.

Grants for land and water

204

12.3.2.

Effect of land EV manufacturers entering marine

204

12.4.

Market drivers

204

12.4.1.

Pollution laws back electric boats ? India, Europe, USA

205

12.4.2.

Energy harvesting superyacht UK

205

12.4.3.

Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) ? Europe, USA

207

12.5.

Manufacturers by country and product

207

12.6.

Selling prices

208

12.7.

Market forecasts 2013-2024

209

12.7.1.

Outboard motor market size 2013-2024

209

13.

AIRCRAFT, MOBILE ROBOTS AND OTHER EVS

211

13.1.

Definition

211

13.2.

Market drivers

211

13.3.

Listing of other manufacturers by country and product

212

13.4.

Market size and trends

212

13.4.1.

Aircraft ? Renault, Piccard

213

13.4.2.

Solar Impulse

214

13.4.3.

Non-military mobile robots ? USA, UK, Japan

215

13.4.4.

The Electrolux Automower Sweden

217

13.4.5.

Rescue robots in Germany

218

13.4.6.

Robots on Mars

218

13.4.7.

Leisure on land

220

13.4.8.

Research and hobbyist

221

13.4.9.

Electric aircraft for civil use

221

13.4.10.

Robotic lawn mowers

221

13.5.

Market forecasts 2013-2024

223

APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY

227

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Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2014-2024

Tables

Table 1.1

Table 1.2

Table 1.3 Table 1.4

Table 1.5

Table 1.6

Table 1.7

Table 1.8

Table 1.9

Table 1.10 Table 1.11 Table 1.12

Table 1.13

Table 1.14 Table 2.1

Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3

Table 3.4 Table 4.1

Table 4.2

League table of the world's largest EV manufacturers and their dollar sales of EVs in 2014, % market share by gross sales value in EVs, hybrid + pure electric, league position trend, sectors of activity and technology. Categories of electric vehicle, saturating and growth subsectors within these categories and technology trends by size/ duty cycle. Numbers of EVs, in thousands, sold globally, 2013-2024, by applicational sector Explanation of trends in market numbers by sector and background statistics and forecasts by other analysts of future numbers by sector and country Ex-factory unit price of EVs, in thousands of US dollars, sold globally, 2013-2024, by applicational sector, rounded Ex-factory value of EVs, in billions of US dollars, sold globally, 2013-2024, by applicational sector, rounded Approximate number of manufacturers of electric vehicles worldwide in 2014 by application with numbers for China Global sales of pure electric cars by country in 2012 including Chinese cars not homologated as cars in the West. Pure electric on-road cars sold by type in 2012 K numbers excluding delivery vans and carlike vehicles not homologated as cars in the West such as cars sold in China and the Renault Twizy Pure electric cars sold in China in 2012 Main market drivers 2013-2023 Monthly US electric vehicle sales for January to October2013 according to trade association EDTA The value of the electric vehicle market by territory % East Asia, Europe, North America, Other 2013 and 2023 % NEV output in China for 2011 and 2012 including exports Energy, number of riders and energy per 100 kilometers per person for different on-road travel options. Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs Global automotive production by country 2012 27 examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country Percentage split of global manufacture of heavy industrial trucks Global sales of heavy industrial (heavy lifting, eg forklift and heavy earthmoving/pulling) EVs by numbers, ex-factory unit price and total value 2013-2024, rounded Sales of heavy electric vehicles by region by percentage of units 150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive trains by country and examples of their products Global sales of buses, ex-factory unit price and total value 2013-2024, rounded

Page

4

12 14

16

22

24

27

28

28 28 30

38

40 42

57 63 69 75 76

76 76

88 90

Electric Vehicle Forecasts, Trends and Opportunities 2014-2024

Table 4.3 Global sales of light industrial and commercial EVs excluding buses by numbers thousands,

ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024,

rounded

90

Table 4.4 Approximate number of light industrial and commercial vehicles by type in 2013 in thousands

excluding buses

91

Table 4.5 Sales of light electric/commercial vehicles by region 2013 and 2023 by percentage of units

91

Table 5.1 Statistics relevant to the challenge to society caused by ageing population

94

Table 5.2 Evolution of three families of powered vehicles for the disabled to 2013

97

Table 5.3 Evolution of power chairs 1980 to 2013

98

Table 5.4 Evolution of scooters for the disabled 1980 to 2013

98

Table 5.5 The continental percentage split of markets for vehicles for the disabled by value in 2013

99

Table 5.6 The percentage split of market for vehicles for the disabled by country within Europe

99

Table 5.7 The numbers in thousands of scooters plus power chairs that were and will be sold in Europe

2005 to 2015

100

Table 5.8 Features of mobility vehicles that may hold up the price by offering more in future

101

Table 5.9 The percentage distribution of manufacture between Taiwan and Mainland China by value of

vehicles for the disabled 2005, 2010 and 2015

103

Table 5.10 Market for EVs for the disabled by geographical region, ex works pricing and percentage split

in 2005, 2010 and 2020

103

Table 5.11 82 examples of manufacturers of EVs for the disabled by country

103

Table 5.12 Global sales of EVs used as mobility aids for the disabled by number, ex-factory unit price in

thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars, 2013-2024, rounded

106

Table 6.1 Prices and performance of electric two wheelers

109

Table 6.2 70 examples of manufacturers of two wheel EVs and electric quad bikes

115

Table 6.3 Largest suppliers of electric bicycles by number (not in order)

117

Table 6.4 34 sources of two wheelers in China by brand, region and battery chemistry

117

Table 6.5 Listing of light electric scooter makers in China. Most use lead-acid battery chemistry but

there is a move to lithium-ion batteries

118

Table 6.6 Global sales of two wheel and allied EVs number, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars

and total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024 rounded

119

Table 6.7 Sales of Light Electric Vehicles LEVs (two wheelers and allied eg electric quad bikes and on

road three wheel micro cars) by region by percentage of units 2013 and 2023

120

Table 7.1 85 examples of car and microEV manufacturers beyond golf car, by country

130

Table 7.2 MicroEV quadricycle forecasts 2012-2024

132

Table 7.3 19 examples of golf EV manufacturers

135

Table 7.4 Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised caddies in number thousands, ex-factory unit

price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded

136

Table 7.5 Geographical split of golf EV sales by value 2010, 2015 and 2020

136

Table 8.1 Global stimulus for fuel efficient cars in 2009

138

Table 8.2 113 examples of manufacturers of EV cars

143

Table 8.3 Global sales of car hybrid number thousands, ex-factory unit price in thousands of dollars

and total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded

149

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