STUDY GUIDE UNIT 6-POPULATION 2011



STUDY GUIDE UNIT 6 - POPULATION 2011

PLEASE READ CHAPTERS 18 and 19 in your TEXT.

6.1.1 Define the terms population density, densely populated and sparsely populated (k)

Population density is a measure of how compact or concentrated a population is. It takes an area of land into account as well as population. For example Canada as a whole has a much larger population than St. John's. However, Canada is spread out over a much larger area than St. John's. Therefore, St. John's would have a higher population density than Canada.

• Population Density = population per unit area

(unit area is usually measured in Km² or miles²)

As of July 1st 2011 Canada's population is estimated to be 34,030,589 and total area is 9,984,670 km²

Population Density = population per unit area

Canada’s Population Density = 34,030,589 / 9,984,670 km²

Canada’s Population Density = 3.4 people per kilometer squared

Population density is the average number of people per square kilometre. It is a way of measuring population distribution and shows whether an area is sparsely or densely populated.

o Sparsely Populated = small number of people per unit area

Sparsely Populated = less than 100 people / Km²

o Densely Populated = high number of people per unit area

Densely Populated = higher than 100 people / Km²

It is important to note that these two classifications and the numeric cut off of 100 people / Km² are somewhat arbitrary. Some books use a middle category moderately populated @ 10-100 people / Km²

6.1.2 Explain why population density is not always an accurate indicator of population distribution (k)

Canada’s Population Density is 3.4 people per kilometer squared. This number may mislead people to think that Canada’s population is evenly distributed and that for every kilometer squared there are 3 people. This is not true because Canada’s population is unevenly distributed. Canada’s population density does not explain how Canada’s population is spread out.

There are three main population distribution patterns:

Dispersed - (spread out) patterns that are found in areas that have a strong agricultural base since people tend to be spread out on the farms in the region

Concentrated - (close together) occur in areas where resources are focused in small areas

Linear pattern - is a special kind of concentrated pattern where the most important economic reasons for settlement exist in lines

Canadians live in “islands” of population strung along the southern border. Canada's settlement pattern is linear along the United States border. The 'Golden Horseshoe' is a densely populated and industrialized region or urban agglomeration centered on the west end of Lake Ontario in Southern Ontario, Canada. Most of it is also part of the Windsor-Quebec City corridor.

Population density figures often give the average for each country, but

remember there can be great variety within a country. A good example is Japan,

where 75% of the land is mountainous and 77% of the population live on just 16%

of the land. Other countries which appear to have low population densities have

very crowded major cities for example the USA and Brazil.

6.1.3 Explain patterns in the distribution of population on the earth’s surface. (a)

Global Patterns of Population Density

• North America:

o Sparsely populated in North

o Densely populated along North Eastern US and South Western US

• South America:

o Sparsely populated in center

o Densely populated along Western Coast but most dense South Eastern Brazil

• Europe:

o Sparsely populated in extreme North

o Densely populated throughout remainder

• Asia:

o Sparsely populated in North & center

o Densely populated in South East

• Africa:

o Sparsely populated in Sahara

o Densely in North & Sub Sahara

6.1.4 Analyze the impact of selected factors on the population distribution of a given region. (a)

The “Too” theory suggests that people do not settle in areas that are too cold, too hot, too dry, too high, too steep, too wet, too hard to get to, too poor, too boring and so on…

• There are a range of human and natural factors that affect population distribution. The tables below illustrate this.

|Physical Factors |Densely Populated |Sparsely Populated |

|Relief |Low land which is flat e.g. Ganges Valley in India |High land that is mountainous e.g. Himalayas |

|(shape and height of land) | | |

|Resources |Areas rich in resources (e.g. coal, oil, wood, |Areas with few resources tend to be sparsely |

| |fishing etc.) tend to densely populated e.g. |populated e.g. The Sahel |

| |Western Europe | |

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|Climate |Warmer comfortable climates attract people. Notice |Areas with extreme climates of hot and cold |

| |that most people live in a moderate climate region.|tend to be sparsely populated e.g. the Sahara |

| | |Desert |

| |Areas with temperate climates tend to be densely | |

| |populated as there is enough rain and heat to grow | |

| |crops e.g. UK | |

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|Human Factors |High Density |Low Density |

|Political |Countries with stable governments tend to have a | |

| |high population density e.g. Singapore |Unstable countries tend to have lower |

| | |population densities as people migrate e.g. |

| | |Afghanistan. |

|Social |Groups of people want to live close to each other |Other groups of people prefer to be isolated |

| |for security e.g. USA |e.g. Scandinavians |

|Economic |Good job opportunities encourage high population | |

| |densities, particularly in large cities in MEDCs | |

| |and LEDCs around the world. A MEDC stands for More |Limited job opportunities cause some areas to |

| |Economically Developed Country. This is a country |be sparsely populated e.g. Amazon Rainforest |

| |like the United Kingdom that has a reasonably | |

| |stable economy and is high on the development | |

| |spectrum. A LEDC is the opposite of a MEDC. LEDC | |

| |stands for Less Economically developed country. | |

| |Population distribution has changed over time. No | |

| |longer are dense populations around primary | |

| |resources. Urbanization and the move to the | |

| |industrial and now the information ages have | |

| |changed population distribution. | |

| |Coastal regions attracted business and people | |

| |because of ocean transportation. It was true for | |

| |initial settlement and is still true today. Most | |

| |major cities are located on the coast. | |

Test yourself

• 1. _?_ = population per unit area. Population Density

• 2. _?_ = small number of people per unit area ( less than 100 people / Km²) SPARSELY POPULATED

• 3. _?_ = high number of people per unit area (higher than 100 people / Km² ) DENSELY POPULATED

• 4. Name the three most densely populated regions of the world. SOUTHEAST ASIA, AFRICA, EUROPE

• 5. Look at the map below and give a verbal description of the population density for Asia. SPARSELY POPULATED THROUGHOUT THE NORTH AND CENTER, DENSELY POPULATED IN THE SOUTH EAST

• 6. Name 3 factors that affect why the world's population is collected in pocket of high density? In other words what attracts people to the densely populated areas of the world? MODERATE CLIMATE, OCEAN TRANSPORTATION ROUTES, URBANIZATION

1. Compare the term absolute population growth and population growth rate.

Absolute population change - is the actual number of people the population has increased and decreased by in a certain period of time.

Population growth rate, this measures the average yearly percentage change over the same time frame. To calculate the population growth rate use the following formula:

Divide the absolute change by the beginning population, then multiply the value by 100 to get the percentage. Once you've done that, divide the percentage by the number of years over which the population change took place to get an average annual rate.

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Population Growth Rate

• It is a measure of "how fast is the population growing?"

• It is measured as the percentage increase in a population over a period of time.

• The calculation used to provide a measure is known as the Annual Growth Rate (AGR)

Formula:

• AGR = pop. change X 100 ÷ years for change

            pop. original

6.2.2 Sample calculation of AGR

Mexico

Mexico’s population changed from 49 million to 72 million between the years 1971 & 1981

AGR = pop. change ´ 100% ÷ years for change pop. Original

AGR = 72 – 49 ´ 100% ÷ 10 = 4.7% (very high annual growth rate)

Sweden

Sweden's population changed from 7.9 million to 8.3 million between the years 1971 & 1981

AGR = pop. change ´ 100% ÷ years for change pop. Original

AGR = 8.3 – 7.9 ´ 100% ÷ 10 = 0.5% (very low annual growth rate)

Canada's population growth in 2010 was lower than that observed in 2009. The Canadian population increased by 375,600 (+1.1%) in 2010 compared with 394,400 the year before (+1.2%).

6.2.3 Given relevant data, classify a country according to the demographic transition model.

The Demographic Transition Model

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STAGE 1

Both high birth rates and death rates fluctuate in the first stage of the

population model giving a small population growth (shown by the small total

population graph). There are many reasons for this:

• little access to birth control

• many children die in infancy (high infant mortality) so parents tend to have

more children to compensate in the hopes that more will live

• children are needed to work on the land to grow food for the family

• children are regarded as a sign of virility in some cultures

• religious beliefs (e.g. Roman Catholics and Hindus) encourage large families

• high death rates, especially among children because of disease, famine, poor

diet, poor hygiene, little medical science.

EXAMPLE: SOME TRIBES IN THE AMAZON

STAGE 2

Birth rates remain high, but death rates fall rapidly causing a high population

growth (as shown by the total population graph). The reasons for this could be:

• improvements in medical care - hospitals, medicines, etc.

• improvements in sanitation and water supply

• quality and quantity of food produced rises

• transport and communications improve the movements of food and medical supplies

• decrease in infant mortality.

EXAMPLE: BANGLADESH AND NIGERIA

STAGE 3

Birth rates now fall rapidly while death rates continue to fall. The total

population begins to peak and the population increase slows to a constant. The

reasons for this could be:

• increased access to contraception

• lower infant mortality rate means there is less need to have a bigger family

• industrialization and mechanization means fewer laborers are required

• the desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large

families as wealth increases

• equality for women means that they are able to follow a career path rather than feeling obligated to have a family.

EXAMPLE: BRAZIL

STAGE 4

Both birth rates and death rates remain low, fluctuating with 'baby booms' and

epidemics of illnesses and disease. This results in a steady population.

EXAMPLE UK

STAGE 5

A stage 5 was not originally thought of as part of the DTM, but some northern

countries are now reaching the stage where total population is declining where

birth rates have dropped below death rates. One such country is Germany, which

has taken in foreign workers to fill jobs. The UK's population is expected to

start declining by 2021.

The Demographic Transition Model in relation to Population Pyramids

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If you understand the demographic transition model and its relationship to

population structure, then you are well on the way to understanding population

dynamics.

Demographic Transitions Model

The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.

STAGE ONE is associated with pre Modern times, and is characterized by a balance between birth rates and death rates. This situation was true of all human populations up until the late 18th Century. When the balance was broken in western Europe. For example we would expect that native/tribal populations that exist in isolated parts of the world might still exist in the stage where birth rates are high and death rates are high.

STAGE TWO sees a rise in population caused by a decline in the death rate while the birth rate remains high, or perhaps even rises slightly. This would be the case in lesser developed and developing nations where there is enough health care and nutrition decrease death rates but birth rates are still high.

STAGE THREE moves the population towards stability through a decline in the birth rate. This would be the case in developing countries and those that have recently become developed nations.

STAGE FOUR is characterized by stability. In this stage the population age structure has become older. For example Canada, Sweden and other developed nations would be in this stage of the model.

Visit this site to find out more about the demographic transitions model.

6.2.4 Classify a population growth rate as slow, moderate or fast growing population

How Fast is Fast? AGR (Annual Growth Rate)

Most population statisticians recognize three categories of growth rates. They distinguish among slow, fast and moderately growing populations.

Fast growing: AGR > 2%

For example Mexico, between 1971 & 1981, had a fast growing population with an AGR of 4.7%

Moderately growing: AGR approximately = 2%

Slow growing: AGR < 2%

For example Sweden, between 1971 & 1981, had a slow growing population with an AGR of 0.5%

Trends in population growth rates

Most countries population growth rates are declining. Especially developed nations. Generally speaking the more developed the nation the more stable the population.

This trend towards lower growth rates should not be confused with decreasing populations. The world’s population is still growing at a phenomenal rate. Look at figure 18.6 TEXT page 305 and you can see that the world's population is still increasing at a rapid rate.

Test yourself

1. _?_ is a measure of how fast a population is growing. POPULATION GROWTH RATE

2. _?_ is a is a calculation to quantify population growth rate. AGR ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

3. What AGR constitutes a fast growing population? > 2%

4. What AGR constitutes a moderately growing population? = 2%

5. What AGR constitutes a slow growing population? < 2%

6. What is the trend of population growth rates for most countries on earth? DECREASING

6.2.5 Relate a country’s rate of population growth to its socio-economic conditions.

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Economic Conditions That Affect a Country's Annual Growth Rate

Better economic conditions affect a number of things that have allowed developed nations to stabilize their populations. Some of the amenities that developed nations enjoy that promote population control include:

1. Education rate of the masses:

• educated people are more aware of birth control and statistics show that increased education is correlated with decreased number of children.

2. Education of females:

• it is assumed that the education of women has resulted in them taking on a greater variety of societal roles in developed nations. Again statistics show that more educated women tend to have fewer children.

3. Employment for females:

• instances of females working outside the home are more common in developed nations. This goes hand in hand with increased education. Statistics show that in

developed nations women are having children later in life and are having fewer children as they put family on hold to develop a career.

4. Ability to access birth control:

• while a trip to the corner store for birth control is a simple task in a developed nation, in lesser developed nations the cost is prohibitive. Feeding the family takes precedent over birth control. Furthermore the availability of a corner store is a problem for some let alone the availability of birth control.

5. Service sector jobs & the move from agriculture to urbanization:

• people do not need large families to help on the farm if they work in the city where the jobs are predominantly in manufacturing and in the service sector.

6. Health care:

• prenatal and family planning services are expensive and are predominantly found in more developed nations. We may not recognize the services we have available to us because we are so accustomed to them. However our government collects millions of dollars in taxes that contribute to public health nurses, hospitals, family planning clinics, and family living courses in grade school.

6.2.6 Describe some of the problems that result from overpopulation

Overpopulation often leads to poverty.

The effects of overpopulation in developing countries are:

• Pressure on the land

• Land is over-utilized

• Housing shortages

• Lack of work

• The spreading of diseases

• Poor medical facilities

Attempts to solve population problems in MEDCs:

advertising, accepting immigrants, high family allowances, tax incentives,

banning contraception, childcare facilities for working mothers.

Attempts to solve population problems in LEDCs

Family planning and information services, better education, improved healthcare,

better employment prospects, later marriages, migration to cities, education and

careers for women.

A MEDC stands for More Economically Developed Country. This is a country like the United Kingdom that has a reasonably stable economy and is high on the development spectrum. A LEDC is the opposite of a MEDC. LEDC stands for Less Economically developed country.

7. Defend one’s own views upon the efficacy of controlling population growth.

In developed nation’s family planning, pension plans, easy access to birth control, education and a changing standard of living have all led to a controlled, stable population. However, in lesser developed nations, education, family planning, birth control and pensions are all very difficult to obtain.

What plan would you support to help developing nations control their population?

1. Legislation by government could make it illegal to have more than a certain number of babies. Is that humane? How do we ensure the correct number. What is done with children over the limit?

2. Some people have proposed that war and famine used to be our natural means of birth control. However if we want to have a manageable plan to control the earth's population surely we cannot let people in famine go unaided or reduce peacekeeping missions. Clearly this is not an option.

3. Increasing education of the masses is correlated with decreased births. Could we help to provide education in developing nations?

4. Pension plans & RRSP's allow us to be secure into our old age and we do not have to worry about having children to take care of us. Is this something we could promote in under-developed nations?

5. In some regions of the world the disparity between the education received by females and males is tremendous. We know that education of women is correlated with decreased births. Is the education of women something we could promote?

6. There is little doubt that birth control is the biggest factor limiting populations in developed nations. Could we provide less expensive birth control for developing nations?

7. Highly developed economies are associated with decreased birth rates. Should we concentrate on supporting improvements to their economies as an ultimate route to controlling birth rates?

6.3.1 Define the terms natural change, natural increase and natural decrease.

Births – Deaths = Natural Change

Natural change in a population is defined as the difference in births and deaths.

Natural Change = difference in births & deaths

Natural Increase occurs when there are more births than deaths

Natural Decrease occurs when there are more deaths than births

In Canada there were an estimated 382,000 births and 250,800 deaths in 2010, resulting in a natural increase of 131,200. This was lower than the natural increase of 135,600 recorded in 2009.

6.3.2 Express population change in mathematical terms

Rate of natural increase (RNI) takes into account only birth rate and death rate.

Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) is a measure of how fast the population is increasing due only to the births and deaths.

The formula is RNI = BR – DR

Birth Rate = Total Number of Births in One Year ÷ Total Population ×1000

Death Rate = Total Number of Deaths in One Year ÷ Total Population×1000

The rate of natural increase is found by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate.

For example Canada:

11/1000 (birth rate) – 7/1000 (death rate) = 4/1000 (natural increase)

4 ÷ 1000 x 100 = 0.4%

** Remember that this is ÷ 1000 before multiplying by 100, so Canada’s rate of natural increase

is 0.4%.

Test yourself ANSWERS

1. _?_ is the difference between births and deaths in a population. NATURAL CHANGE

2. _?_ is an increase in population due more births than deaths. NATURAL INCREASE

3. _?_ is a decrease in population due to more deaths than births. NATURAL DECREASE

4. _?_ is the number of births per 1000 people in the population. BIRTH RATE

5. _?_ is the number of deaths per 1000 deaths in the population. DEATH RATE

6. _?_ is the difference in the birth rate and the death rate for a population. RNI

7. Countries with a high standard of living generally have a _?_ RNI. LOW

8. Countries with a High RNI generally have a _?_ standard of living. LOW

9. _?_ birth rates are usually associated with low education rates, agricultural economies and less dev eloped economies. HIGH

6.3.3 Classify a given population as expanding, contracting or stationary

Population pyramids are graphs that show the age structure of a population by age & gender

Notice the following points about population pyramids:

• Generally, Males are on the left and Females are on the right

• Age categories are in 5 year increasing intervals labeled up the center axis

• The horizontal axis is measured in millions.

Reading Population Pyramids

Observing different characteristics of the population pyramid can tell you a lot about the population.

Width of the base:

Birth rate varies with the width of the base. A wide base indicates a high birth rate and a narrow base indicates a low birth rate.

Symmetry:

Statistically speaking pyramids should be relatively symmetrical. Any asymmetry indicates a difference in the male and female population.

Shape of sides:

Concave sides indicate a high death rate and convex sides indicate a low death rate.

Bumps in the sides:

Irregularities in the sides indicate a demographic anomaly. The 30 -50 age group in this population pyramid represents the baby boom. This bump will travel upward as the baby boomers age.

Figure 19.10 on page 332 of your text book shows different classifications of population pyramids.  ENSURE TO VIEW AND KNOW THEIR SHAPES.

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Expansive or expanding population pyramids have this classic triangular/pyramid shape. The wide base of this population pyramid indicates a high birth rate & the narrow top indicates a high death rate.

Generally speaking an expanding population is characteristic of a lower standard of living:

• high birth rate due to poor access to birth control, lack of education etc.;

• high death rate due to poor medical care & nutrition.

Stationary or Stable population pyramids have a 1/2 ellipse shape. The base of this population pyramid is similar in width to the population of the reproductive ages which indicates a stable population.

Generally speaking stable populations are characteristic of a high standard of living due to:

• low birth rate due to good family planning, access to birth control, financial planning, education, etc.;

• low death rate due to good medical care, nutrition, education etc.

Contractive or contracting population pyramids have a narrower base than the reproductive age population. This indicates a decreasing population trend. The low birth rate is indicative of a well developed country.

Test yourself ANSWERS

1. What does the vertical axis on the population pyramid represent? AGE CATEGORIES

2. What type of population pyramid is indicative of a lesser developed country? EXPANDING

3. What does a narrow base to the population pyramid indicate? LOW BIRTH RATE

4. What type of population pyramid has a triangular shape? EXPANDING

5. What type of population pyramid is wider at the reproductive age than at the pre-reproductive ages. CONTRACTING

6. _?_ are graphs that show the age structure of a population by age & gender. POPULATION PYRAMIDS

7. What type of population pyramid is depicted below? EXPANDING

8. What characteristic of this population pyramid indicate its high death rate? CONCAVE SIDES

6.3.4 Examine the relationship between birth rate and death rates to determine natural change in a population.

Higher birth rate than death rate = natural increase in population

Higher death rate than birth rate = natural decrease in population

6.3.5 Analyze factors that affect birth rates

6.3.6 Analyze factors that affect death rates

Reasons for high birth and death rates in developing countries:

• work on land/farms

• Care for family when ill/old

• Lots of children die from disease

• Child go to city to earn money

• Religious beliefs against birth control

• Having a large family gives status

• Tradition of having large families

• Children are regarded as insurance

Reasons for low birth and death rates in developed countries:

• Excellent standard of living

• Don’t need lots of children to work

• Children survive so don’t have to have more

• Excellent healthcare

• Excellent family planning

• Children live free from disease

• Want to spend money on other things

• Have pensions for when get old don’t need children to look after them

• Want careers

7. Define the term Dependency Ratio

Birth rate is not the only aspect of a country’s population that can be analyzed

by using a pyramid. Dependency ratio is another.

Dependency Ratio is based on the assumption that the very young

and the older age groups of a population are not employed (thus dependent)

and are supported by people who do work (working ages 15 to 64 years).

The Dependency ratio measures how many dependents are supported by each set

of 100 working age people. (Approximation only).

Think: It has to be taken into account the fact that in some countries people

work before age 15 and beyond age 64.

Still in other countries the working class may be between the ages of

22 and 60.

Still others are unable, or do not work so they are considered dependent.

Still this statistic is however useful in comparing populations and making predictions

about a countries present and future potential for economic growth.

6.3.8 Given population data, calculate dependency ratio

• People under 15 and over 65 are considered dependant upon the working population.

• The working age of people varies from country to country 

• The dependency ratio (DR) of a population indicates how many people are dependant upon every 100 workers.

• formula is   

DR = (pop. 0-14) + (pop. 65+) X 100

                (pop. 15-64)

Dependency ratio formula: (TEXT PAGE 333)

Percent of people under 15 + Percent of people over 64

Percent of working-age (People 15-64)

For example, in Canada in 1961 percent of people under 15 was 33.8% and percent of people over 64 was 8.4% and the percent of working-age was 57.8%.

33.8 + 8.4 x 100 = 73.01 per 100 people of working age.

57.8

Canada’s dependency ration for 1961 was 73 dependents per 100 working age people.

This means that for every 100 people of working age that worked they supported themselves and

73 additional people.

Canada’s total demographic dependency ratio is projected to rise to 84 dependents for every 100 people of working age by 2056, as the proportion of seniors’ increases. 

The dependency load refers to the number of people who are restricted from working, usually by age. These are the people who are dependent on others to provide for their needs. The dependency load is used to calculate services needed for the young and the old.

Age Structure of the Populations in CANADA FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS PUBLIC EXAM.

1. Children (up to age 15) Dependency Load

2. Working adults (16-64) Support

3. Older Adults (65+) Dependency Load

6.3.9 Describe the factors that contribute to a graying of the population

The aging of a population results from declining fertility which reduces the number of children, and increasing longevity, which increases the number of old people.

6.3.10 Project future population trends from data provided.

Government policymakers and planners around the world use population projections to gauge future demand for food, water, energy, and services, and to forecast future demographic characteristics. Population projections can alert policymakers to major trends that may affect economic development and help policymakers craft policies that can be adapted for various projection scenarios.

You may be given a graph like Figure 1 below and asked some questions.

|FIGURE 1: World Population Projections to 2050 |

|and 2100: The United Nations, World Bank, U.S. |

|Census Bureau, and IIASA |

|[pic] |

|*International Institute for Applied Systems |

|Analysis. |

SOME TRENDS FROM WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS

According to the 2008 Revision, the world population is expected to rise by 2.53 billion people, to reach a total of 9.1 billion in 2050. The increase alone is close to the total world population in 1950. Essentially all of the growth will take place in the less developed countries, and will be concentrated among the poorest populations in urban areas.

By contrast, the overall population of the more developed countries is likely to show little change over the next 41 years, remaining at about 1.2 billion. Fertility is below replacement level (2.1 children per woman) in all 45 developed countries or areas, as well as in 28 developing countries including China. The population of developed regions is ageing and would actually decline were it not for migration. The populations of Germany, Italy, Japan and most of the successor states of the former Soviet Union are expected to be lower in 2050 than they are today.

1. Define the terms migration, immigration, and emigration

Migration Terminology

Immigration – refers to people entering into a country to permanently settle.

Emigration - refers to people leaving a country to permanently settle elsewhere.

Migration refers to the movement of people from one region to another. This is a rather familiar concept for Newfoundlanders and Labradoreans who see people migrate to Alberta yearly.

Immigration refers to the migration of people into the country, province or region. This is less familiar to Newfoundlanders and Labradoreans.

Emigration refers to the migration of people out of the country, province or region. This is the type of migration we are familiar with.

Net Migration refers to the difference between immigration and emigration. It would certainly seem the Newfoundland and Labrador as a whole has a negative net migration while Alberta, and Toronto likely have a positive net migration. As we will see in section 2 this is an indication of how desirable living condition are in a place.

Internal Migration refers to the migration of people within a country province or region. Newfoundland and Labrador experiences a fair degree of internal migration as people move from smaller outports to St. John's.

Newfoundland and Labrador has a stable population. Why?

• Newfoundland and Labrador is a real statistical anomaly. While in the 60's and 70's we had among the highest birth rates in Canada we now have among the lowest birth rates in Canada. However, while we still might have a slight natural increase we are still experiencing a high emigration rate which counterbalances any natural increase.

How can Newfoundland and Labrador have an actual decrease in population while there is an actual increase in St. John’s?

• Recognizing the fact that St. John's makes up only a portion of the province's population helps explain this. St. John's is likely experiencing immigration from outside the province and within the province. However the immigration from outside the province is not as great as the emigration from all parts of the island.

2. Define the term Actual Population Change

Actual change recognizes all the factors that can change a population. While natural change only deals with births and deaths, actual change deals with births, deaths, immigration and emigration.

The formula is AC = (B + I) – (D + E)

3. Express the actual change in population in mathematical terms.

AC (Actual Change) = (B (Births) + I (Immigration)) – (D (Deaths) + E (Emigration)

• The 4 factors affecting population change:

– Number of people born

– Number of people who die

– Number of people who move into the country

– Number of people who leave the country

Because these stats are so important they are called vital statistics

6.4.4 Examine the relationship among birth rate, death rate, emigration and immigration to determine the actual change in population.

Interesting Aspects of Actual Change

AC = (B + I) – (D + E)

A population can have a natural increase but an actual decrease. HOW?

• If the net migration is negative and greater in magnitude than the natural increase there will be an actual decrease in the population.

• If the relative size of the symbols in the formula can represent the concept:

AC = (B + I) – (D + E)

A population can have a natural decrease but an actual increase. How?

• If the net migration is positive and larger in magnitude that the natural decrease there will be an actual increase in the population.

• If the relative size of the symbols in the formula can represent the concept:

AC = (B + I) – (D + E)

Test yourself ANSWERS

1. _?_ refers to the movement of people from one region to another. MIGRATION

2. _?_ refers to the migration of people into the country, province or region. IMMIGRATION

3. _?_ refers to the migration of people out of the country, province or region. EMIGRATION

4. _?_ refers to the difference between immigration and emigration. NET MIGRATION

5. _?_ refers to the migration of people within a country province or region. INTERNAL MIGRATION

6. The formula for Actual Change in a population is... AC = (B + I) – (D + E)

1. Define the terms push factor, pull factor, repel factor and intervening obstacle

• Push factors – are disadvantageous factors in the home country that makes a person want to leave (war, famine, etc)

• Pull factors – are advantageous factors in a receiving country that draw (attract) a person there (jobs, services, health care, etc)

• Repel factors are factors that force people away.

Repel Factors: These are forces which encourage people to stay in their country

despite the hardships there, and the more desirable conditions elsewhere.

These are conditions which make the decision to migrate very difficult.

• Moving from home to unfamiliar and uncertain conditions.

• Being separated from family and friends.

• Adjusting to a new language.

• Adjusting to a new culture.

Intervening obstacles – factors which get in the way of migration such as lack of money, family connections and immigration laws.

2. Examine the dynamics related to an individual’s decision to migrate.

Why do People Migrate?

People move for a wide variety of reason and if we had to establish every reason it would be an insurmountable task. However, we can classify all reasons for moving into one of two categories. People either want to get away from their place of origin or they want to go to a particular place. Instead of using the term get away factors we use "push factors" and instead of using the term go to factors we use "pull factors".

Besides push forces and pull forces are those forces that keep people in their home country. Besides pull factors or positive factors that would pull an outsider to the country there are factors such as, culture, lack of money to move, emigration/immigration laws, family connections and the feeling of home. These factors are referred to as intervening obstacles because they are obstacles to migration

Newfoundland Push Factors

Some people might report that they are pushed out of Newfoundland and Labrador for the following reasons:

1. lack of high-skilled jobs in the IT sector;

2. lack of high-paying jobs;

3. lack of amenities attainable in larger centers.

Some people might report that they were drawn or pulled to or back to Newfoundland and Labrador for the following reasons:

1. friendly people and violence-free atmosphere;

2. lack of hustle and bustle; peaceful life style.

Some people might report that they would leave Newfoundland and Labrador except for obstacles such as:

1. they love the salt water;

2. parents are aging and need help & company;

3. they can not afford the trip away let alone the cost of setting up and trying to find a job.

Test yourself ANSWERS

1. _?_ refer to disadvantageous factors in the home country that make people want to leave. PUSH FORCES

2. _?_ advantageous factors in the drawing country that attract people. PULL FORCES

3. _?_ those forces that prevent or inhibit people from moving such as lack of money, family connections and immigration laws. INTERVENING OBSTACLES

3. Determine the major source areas for international migrants - TEXT page 330.

Canada received more than 280,000 immigrants in 2010, the highest level recorded since the 1950's. This was 28,500 more immigrants than in 2009. Increases in immigration were recorded by most provinces and territories.

Over the last two-and-a-half decades, the shift in source regions in Canada was characterized by a decline in the share of immigrants from Europe and the U.S. and a large increase in the share of immigrants from Asia in particular (from where 56% now come). Put differently, new immigrants from developed economies and countries with cultures similar to that of Canada have been replaced by immigrants from developing countries.

China and India have been Canada’s largest source of immigrants for years, but the trends are changing. Earlier this year (2011), the Philippines surpassed China and India, becoming Canada’s number one source of immigrants.

The increase in the number of Filipinos immigrating to Canada may be explained by Canada’s immigration programs that are aimed at the caring industries. Canada’s Live-In Caregiver Program brings workers to Canada to care for children and the elderly. Over 90% of Canada’s Live-In Caregiver Program consists of immigrants from the Philippines. As Canada’s elderly population continues to rise, even more Live-in Caregivers are needed.

Filipino immigrants have been more successful at integrating into Canadian society than most other immigrants. Having been educated in English, many Filipinos find work in Canada fairly quickly and employment rates for Filipinos are above the national average.

The Top 10 Major Source Areas for International Migrants to Canada - 2006 census:

1. China

2. India

3. Philippines

4. Pakistan

5. United States

6. Iran

7. United Kingdom

8. Republic of South Korea

9. Colombia

10. France

6.5.4 Use population data to make a demographic argument for the admission of migrants to a country.

Canada should welcome 100,000 more immigrants per year: Report

 By Douglas Todd 31 Mar 2011 Filed under: Vancouver, immigrants, Metropolis B.C.

Talk about a discussion starter. Canadian professor Tony Fang is making the contentious recommendation Canada would economically benefit from hiking its annual quote of immigrants to about 350,000 from the current 250,000.

Increasing immigration to Canada by 100,000 per year would boost Canada’s gross domestic product and spur investment in housing, and would not add to unemployment, according to results of Fang's study, which were released at the national Metropolis conference last week in Vancouver.

The York University professor led the study for The Metropolis Project. He claims his projections for the period 2012-2021 show that adding one million immigrants – an extra 100,000 annually over the current level of about 250,000 − would increase productivity and help the government’s balance sheets.

Fang's recommendation conflicts with the impressions of many Metro Vancouver and Toronto residents who worry that housing prices are rising far too high because of a river of immigrants into urban centers, and that strong immigration levels keeps Canadian wages low.

Canada has the highest immigration rate per capita of any major country.

However, a news release about Fang's report justifies his findings on the basis of the way he and his fellow researchers considered the interdependence of factors such as interest rates, wages, inflation, monetary economic policy and standard of living.

"To study the impacts of large-scale immigration on the Canadian economy, the researchers took into account many factors including: immigrants’ participation in the labor force; associated spending on government services and infrastructure; funds brought by immigrants; and labor market differences between migrants (in order to capture the effect of large-scale immigration on Canadian-born workers)," says the release.

Fang, a professor of human resources management professor in the Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies at York, performed a series of macroeconomic simulations with Professor Morley Gunderson, of the Centre of Industrial Relations and Human Resources at the University of Toronto, and Professor Peter Dungan, director of the Policy & Economic Analysis Program at the University of Toronto.

Fang's report -- which focuses on the economics of immigration and not other factors, such as cultural and environmental -- says that adding 100,000 more immigrants per year would:

• Increase real GDP by 2.3 per cent over the 10-year period by 2021 

• Increase Canada’s population cumulatively by 2.6 per cent, creating demand for goods and services (especially housing)

• Add $14 billion to government coffers because taxes paid by immigrants exceed government expenditures

Conducted with funding from the Social Sciences & Humanities Research Council of Canada and The Metropolis Project, the study proposes to "provide policymakers at all levels of government with information about the costs and benefits of large-scale immigration, to better inform their decisions."

4. Describe the economic impact of immigration and emigration.

INFORMATION BELOW CAME FROM WEBSITE -

Economic Effects of Migration

The economic effects of migration vary widely. Sending countries may experience both gains and losses in the short term but may stand to gain over the longer term. For receiving countries temporary programs help to address skills shortages but may decrease domestic wages and add to public welfare burden. "While every mouth brings a pair of hands, these hands sometimes make more than they eat and sometimes less," noted a writer in the Financial Times.

Nevertheless, most commentators argue that the net effects of migration are generally positive. The Economist magazine, for example, claimed that loosening restrictions on labor migration "would be one of the fastest ways to boost global economic growth." The positive effects, they say, would be significantly greater than removal of any trade barriers.

For sending countries, the short-term economic benefit of emigration is found in remittances. A remittance is a transfer of money by a foreign worker to his or her home country.According to the World Bank, remittances worldwide were estimated at $414 billion in 2009, a decrease of six percent from 2008.22 This figure though only takes into account funds sent by formal channels, so the number is much larger.

For example, Somaliland, a breakaway region of conflict-devastated Somalia, receives an estimated $500 million a year in money sent home from abroad, four times more than the income from the main export, livestock, according to a study by the researcher Ismail Ahmed reported in the Financial Times. In the case of Mexico, remittances have become the country's second most important source of foreign exchange, after oil. The income is so large that Mexicans working outside of the country were able to gain the right to vote after threatening to withhold remittances.

In Tajikistan, remittances from its cheap unskilled labor force abroad in countries like Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan has helped the country rebound from the failures of a planned economy and government instability, contributing around 50percent of Tajikistan’s GDP in recent years.23  Although difficult to measure the impact of remittances on developing countries, one World Bank study has concluded that a one per cent increase in the share of remittances in a country’s GDP leads to a 0.4 per cent decline in poverty.24

Meanwhile, for developed countries, the positive gains from immigration are a result of the infusion of cheap and eager labor into the economy. In the United States and Canada migrant workers often fill low-wage jobs for which there is not enough local supply of labor, such as farm labor. Just as cheap imports of industrial goods benefit the American economy, so too does the import of cheap labor. Economists who support the notion of these positive gains claim that immigration has little impact on wages or job availability for domestic workers.

On the other hand, the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) discounts the positive gains of immigration. One CIS study states that Mexican immigrants have a generally negative economic effect on the United States. It claims that Mexican immigrants have caused a five percent reduction in wages for the poorest ten percent of the American workforce. At the same time, impoverished immigrant households use social services at twice the rate of native-born Americans (31 percent vs. 15 percent) the study says.

Other studies, however, have found just the opposite. The British government, for example sponsored a study that found little evidence that immigrants drove down wages for native workers in the United Kingdom. It also found that immigrants contributed about 10 percent more to public finances than they took out.

At the same time, developing countries can suffer from "brain drain"—the loss of trained and educated individuals to emigration, an example of the possible negative effects of emigration for developing countries. For example, there are currently more African scientists and engineers working in the United States than there are in Africa, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a worldwide agency that assists migrants. In Zambia, emigration has reduced the number of practicing doctors from 1,600 a few years ago, to a mere 400 today. The IOM estimates Africa's brain drain has cost nearly $9 billion in lost human capital and growth potential since 1997. According to the United Nations Population Fund, 2006 State of the World Population report, Africa only retains 1.3 percent of the world’s health care practitioners. Thus, despite having over a quarter of the world’s tuberculosis cases and 64 percent of the total numbers of people infected with HIV, Africa only has, on average, a mere one nurse per 1,000 people.14

Nearby in India, 100,000 skilled technology workers are expected to leave in the next three years. Since it costs India about $20,000 per student to educate these individuals, India essentially will subsidize the rest of the world for $2 billion worth of technology education.

6.5.6 Support a position taken on an issue related to immigration.

Question 12 – PAGE 330 TEXT

Adopt and defend a position on the following statement: “Canada should take an open-door approach to immigration-it should accept all applicants with no restrictions.”

OR

Do immigrants contribute more to the Canadian economy than they extract in social programs?

OR

What is the economic impact of migration?

Much debate on benefits of migration…

POINTS USED IN DEBATE

Higher unemployment

New skills

New businesses

Increases demand for goods

Increased tax base

Cultural enrichment

Cultural/ethnic conflict

Need for adaptation

Some argue that

Disadvantage - take work from Canadians

Disadvantage - add to the poor population (strain on social services)

Some agree that

Advantage - Immigration boosts the economy (are creative, skilled and hard-working).

Advantage - Analysts associate newcomers with growth and prosperity(newcomers create

demand for goods and services and also create labor and businesses)

Advantage - Many immigrants arrive in the prime of their work lives (bring knowledge/skills)

Advantage - They pay taxes which support social programs for all Canadians

Some demographers agree that immigrants may benefit the country in the long term BUT do in particular cases, compete against citizens of Canada for limited jobs.

Disadvantage/Advantage some may focus on the cultural enrichment that immigrants

bring with them.......while others see that this would cause cultural ethnic conflicts.

One important thing to remember is that with immigration everyone must

learn to adapt to changing situations.

THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF CANADA’S VIEW ON IMMIGRATION IS EXPRESSED CLEARLY WITHIN CANADA’S MULTICULTURAL POLICY…IMMIGRATION IS VIEWED AS AN ADVANTAGE.

Canadian multiculturalism is fundamental to our belief that all citizens are equal. Multiculturalism ensures that all citizens can keep their identities, can take pride in their ancestry and have a sense of belonging. Acceptance gives Canadians a feeling of security and self-confidence, making them more open to, and accepting of, diverse cultures. The Canadian experience has shown that multiculturalism encourages racial and ethnic harmony and cross-cultural understanding, and discourages ghettoization, hatred, discrimination and violence.

Through multiculturalism, Canada recognizes the potential of all Canadians, encouraging them to integrate into their society and take an active part in its social, cultural, economic and political affairs.

Canada was the first country in the world to adopt multiculturalism as an official policy. By so doing, Canada affirmed the value and dignity of all Canadian citizens regardless of their racial or ethnic origins, their language, or their religious affiliation. The 1971 Multiculturalism Policy of Canada also confirmed the rights of Aboriginal peoples and the status of Canada’s two official languages.

6.6.1 Define the term census

|What is a Census? |

|A modern Population Census may be defined as the total process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic |

|and social data pertaining to all persons in a country at a specified time. A Census can also be described as a form of |

|national stock-taking. The Census is a complete count of the population and provides detailed bench-mark data on the size of |

|the population, age structure, educational attainment, labor force and socio-economic characteristics. |

6.6.2 Defend a position on issues related to population dynamics

Is there a Carrying Capacity for Homo sapiens?

As we have seen, the human population growth curve is currently following an exponential curve or a "J-shape" (figure 18.6 Your TEXT page 305). Common sense tells us that such growth cannot continue - otherwise within a few hundred years every square foot of the Earth's surface would be taken up by a human. Furthermore, experience with other species tells us that, ultimately, resource limitations and/or habitat degradation will force the human population curves to approach an upper limit or asymptote - the carrying capacity, often symbolized as " K" by ecologists. It is very natural to ask the linked questions - does humanity have a carrying capacity and, if so, what is it - and when will we reach or overshoot this limit?

Joel Cohen's recent book on human carrying capacity summarizes the continuing lack of scientific consensus on the subject. Estimates of the number still vary widely according to the specific assumptions used. In fact, the estimates are more scattered than before - indicating a quantitative field still very much in its infancy. One strand of thought, represented by the author Julian Simon discards the notion of a human carrying capacity altogether, claiming that the additional people will provide sufficient creativity and innovation to break through any possible natural barriers to human population growth. Most of the serious estimates of K for humans, however, lie in the range 10 -20 billion people.

There are no easy answers to the questions:  “How many people can the earth support?”, and “At what level of well-being?”.  Cohen suggests we think in terms of three possible (and non-exclusive) solutions:

1. Make a bigger pie: Increase human productive capacities through technology and innovation

2. Put fewer forks on the table: Reduce numbers and expectations of people through such means as family planning and vegetarian diets

3. Teach better manners: Change the terms of people’s interactions through improved planning and government to enhance social justice.

What do you think of each of these approaches, and what is your reasoning?

6.6.3 Assess the usefulness of census data for a stated purpose.

In Canada Census of Population data are used to:

• determine representation in Parliament

• calculate transfer payments between levels of government

• develop programs such as daycare and select sites for schools

• plan important public services such as daycare, select sites for schools, and fire and police protection.

• help governments develop immigration policy

Without proper data regarding the population it is serving, a government cannot adequately prepare for the future. For example, knowing the number of one year olds will allow school board officials to determine how many kindergarten classrooms and teachers will be needed in four years. If there is a significant increase compared with the existing situation then school officials will have time to prepare. In another example, if the number of seniors is going to increase significantly in the future, then health officials can start preparing for this increase with more geriatric medical facilities and seniors’ housing. An increase in seniors increases the dependency ratio, which means fewer members of the potential labor force will be supporting more dependents. Knowing about the increasing demands to be faced by their pension plans, plan managers will have time to make certain their plans are properly funded and will not collapse.

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