Tourist Industry Update - 2013



Tourist Industry Update - 20131.World PerformanceDespite a world economy which was described by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as being in “low-gear” global stay-over arrivals expanded by 5% in 2013 to a record breaking total of 1.087 billion. The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) reported that in absolute terms 52 million more international tourists travelled around the world in 2013. Additionally, UNWTO stated that arrivals continued to grow faster than the expected rate of 3.8%, with growth of arrivals to emerging economies outpacing that of advanced economies. All regions contributed positively to the overall performance with noteworthy performances being recorded in Asia and the Pacific (6.0%), Africa (5.6%) and Europe (5.4%), all of which attained growth levels higher than the global average. The Americas and more-so the Caribbean continued to struggle to maintain significant growth levels. The Caribbean was the third fastest growing region for 2012 but only outperformed the volatile Middle East in 2013. See table 1.1 below for more details. Table 1.1: Outlook for International Tourist Arrivals?20092010201120122013Real?Full Year, ChangeWorld-3.9%6.5%4.9%4.0%5.0%Europe-5.0%3.1%6.4%3.4%5.4%Asia and the Pacific-1.6%13.2%6.6%6.8%6.0%Americas-4.7%6.6%3.6%4.5%3.6% Caribbean-4.7%1.6%2.7%4.9%1.8%Africa3.4%9.3%-0.5%6.9%5.6%Middle East-5.1%11.6%-6.1%-5.2%0.3%Sources: UNWTO, CTO2. Caribbean Performance2.1. Stay-over (Tourist) ArrivalsBased on the latest information provided by CTO’s member countries, the Caribbean recorded modest growth in 2013. The mixed performances among the destinations resulted in an estimated 25.1 million tourists visiting the region, which was 1.8% (446.0 thousand) more than the revised 24.6 million of 2012. The Caribbean region continued to be adversely affected by relatively weak economic conditions which persist in its key markets. However, double digit growth in the South American market was recorded, reflecting intense focus on attracting tourists from emerging markets. Nevertheless, the momentum which was generated over the previous two years has been significantly reduced, as month-over-month changes in total stay-over arrivals were moderate. Growth in arrivals during the winter season of 2013 was slight (+0.7%), noteworthy growth recorded was only during March. Historically, March is the month in which the most tourists arrive. The performance in 2013 was even more significant as the 2.8 million tourists recorded then were the highest number at any point in time. The early Easter celebrations would have fortified the arrivals in March and overshadowed April’s number. With the exception of July and September which were flat, stop-over arrivals to the region grew in each month of the summer season (May-Dec). The best performances during this period were recorded in May (4.7%), November (4.5%), August (3.8%) and October (3.5%). December is forecast to increase by 1.3%. Collectively, arrivals rose by 2.5% during the summer season. Of the 26 Caribbean destinations submitting data to CTO for 2013, 18 reported increases in tourist arrivals. Only Guyana, Haiti and Montserrat managed to record double-digit increases of 11.6%, 20.2% and 37.9% respectively albeit from relatively low levels. Appreciable growth, in excess of 5%, was realized in Aruba, Belize, and Cayman Islands and the twelve (12) other countries with improved levels of tourist arrivals grew by less than 5%. Fewer tourists visited eight (8) destinations during 2013. This group included Cuba (-0.5%), the Bahamas (-5.3%) and Barbados (-5.5%). Added to these were smaller destinations which depend largely on intra-regional travel and/or visitors from the United Kingdom. (See appendix for more details).Table 2.1.1: Tourist Arrivals to the Caribbean by Sub-region (000s) SUB-REGION2013e2012e% CHCOMMONWEALTH CARIBBEAN 6,926.2 6,959.8 -0.5 OECS COUNTRIES 1,341.3 1,340.6 0.1 OTHER C’WLTH COUNTRIES 5,583.9 5,619.2 -0.6DUTCH CARIBBEAN 1,972.2 1,880.7 4.9FRENCH CARIBBEAN1,305.2 1,312.6 -0.6US TERRITORIES 3,916.7 3,776.0 3.7OTHER CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES 10,891.1 10,635.22.4TOTAL CARIBBEAN 25,010.3 24,564.31.8 of which CARICOM 6,326.56,313.0 0.2Note: Imputed from data on international travel to member countries.Source: CTO Member Countries and CTO estimates.?Table 2.1.2: Tourist Arrivals to the Caribbean by Main Market ('000)MARKETS20092010201120122013e%ch 13/12Total Arrivals22,426.522,790.123,407.024,564.325,010.31.8 United States11,278.111,305.411,404.211,975.912,323.12.9 Canada2,558.92,677.02,865.03,063.53,085.90.7 Europe4,916.24,857.04,962.84,916.54,734.3-3.7 Caribbean1,457.91,487.01,584.41,562.81,595.22.1 South America 858.9898.21,131.61,289.61,456.913.0 Other* 1,356.51,565.51,459.11,756.01,814.93.4Note: - * The list of countries included in “other” varies from country to country. Imputed from data on international travel to member countries.Source: CTO Member Countries and CTO estimates. By region, market shares were generally maintained. The Other Caribbean group, which includes the large destinations like Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Suriname, upheld its dominance (44%) on the total arrivals in 2013. The performance in Cuba was flat while DR recorded an increase of 2.0%. Consequently the group had an increase of 2.4% over the previous year. The 4.9% improvement in the Dutch Caribbean number can be attributed to an 18% upsurge in travel from the South American continent and a moderate 3.4% increase in arrivals from the more traditional US market. The OECS countries - with a market share of 5.4%, experienced little incremental growth in overall tourists (0.1%). Arrivals to Other Commonwealth countries fell slightly by -0.6%. Consequently, the collective 18-nation Commonwealth Caribbean declined by 0.5 % for the year. (Refer to Table2.1.1 and Figure 2.1.3).United States remained the most important supplier of tourists to the region as its share of total arrivals averaged 50% over the last five years. There was no further expansion of market share in 2013 despite a 2.9% increase in arrivals from this market. About 12.3 million Americans visited the region with most arriving in Bahamas, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Several other destinations received creditable returns from this market. (Refer to Table 2.1.2).Canadian stay-over visitors to the region moved from 3.06 million in 2012 to 3.09 million, an increase of 0.7%, making it the lowest year-over-year growth in this market since 1997. This performance reflected the fact that there was marginal growth in the number of Canadians (0.1%) undertaking international trips excluding those visiting the neighbouring USA. Altogether, total outbound travel from Canada increased by 2.0% up to November. This notwithstanding, the usual large number of tourists from this market visited Cuba, Dominican Republic and Jamaica. The ongoing challenges in Europe, though not as severe as in previous years, affected arrivals into the region as there was a further reduction of tourists from the European countries in 2013. By the end of the year an estimated 4.7 million Europeans visited the region, some 3.7% fewer than the previous year. Of the 11 destinations with 50,000 or more arrivals from this market, only Bahamas (0.5%) and Jamaica (5.5%) registered growth. Demand for Caribbean vacations is particularly reduced in the United Kingdom in light of the Air Passenger Duty and low economic growth (below an estimated 2% in 2013). This is reflected in falling arrivals from those countries with heaviest dependence on this market (See tables 2.1.2 and 2.1.3).Table 2.1.3: United Kingdom Arrivals by Sub-Region(‘000)REGION20092010201120122013% CHCommonwealth Countries728.4686.9696.2654.3645.5-1.3 OECS Countries218.7207.4219.7219.8208.9-5.0 Other Commonwealth509.7479.5476.5434.5436.60.5Other Caribbean433.3432.1409.5353.8349.0-1.3Total Caribbean1,161.51,119.01,105.81,008.2994.6-1.4 of which CARICOM660.5628.4639.9595.4584.3-1.9Note: Imputed from data on international travel to member countries.Source: CTO Member Countries and CTO estimates.While arrivals from the main source markets were teetering, tourists from South America were flocking to the region. The numbers moved from an estimated 858.9 thousand in 2009 to in excess of 1.4 million at the end of 2013, almost 13.0% more than in 2012 and 70% more than in 2009. The main destinations to record positive results in 2013 were Aruba (26.1%), Jamaica (15.9%), Suriname (12.4%), and Curacao (9.5%) and Dominican Republic (4.6%).Statistics for 2013 revealed that 2.1% more Caribbean residents visited neighboring destinations than in 2012. It is estimated that 1.6 million Caribbean people travelled between islands for touristic purposes. Non-Commonwealth Caribbean countries dominated in numbers with an increase of 3.7%. The Commonwealth Countries experienced a decrease in visits from Caribbean nationals of 0.5%. The OECS which have significant intra-Caribbean tourism (accounting for 20-50% of total market share across countries), showed 3.4 % contraction in the arrivals. Table 2.1.4: Intra-Caribbean Arrivals by Sub-Region (‘000)REGION20092010201120122013e% CHCommonwealth Countries 631.3 601.8 654.7 624.3 621.5-0.5 OECS Countries 298.9 284.9 284.6 283.6273.9-3.4 Other Commonwealth 332.3 316.9 370.1 340.6 347.62.1Other Caribbean 826.6 885.2 929.7 938.50 973.73.7Total Caribbean1,457.91,487.0 1,584.41,562.8 1,595.22.1 Of which CARICOM 573.0 541.8 575.2 575.4 579.90.82.2. Caribbean Performance - Cruise ActivityFor 2013, the Caribbean was reported to be the leading cruise destination by Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) and accounted for 45.3% of global ship deployments. Cruise passengers to the region totaled 21.8 million which represented a moderate pickup in cruise activity of 2.7% when compared to 2012. The fluctuations in cruise arrivals in individual destinations ranged from declines of 21.8% (Grenada) to increases of 45.1% in Curacao. Twice as many destinations (12), of the 23 destinations upon which the estimates are based, recorded increased cruise activity in 2013 over 2012. However, many destinations which are located furthest away from the US still struggle to boost cruise arrivals. A review of the monthly performance showed that the summer months of 2013 were the best since 2010 for cruise in the Caribbean.Table 2.2.1: Cruise Passenger Arrivals to the Caribbean 2009 - 2013 ('000)?20092010201120122013%ch 13/12Cruise Pax 19,452.421,125.421,544.221,313.121,884.82.7NOTE: Imputed from data on Cruise Passenger travel to member countriesSource: CTO Member Countries and CTO estimates. 3. Accommodation performanceAll major hotel performance indicators remained positive for 2013, but at slower rates of growth. The 2013 occupancy rate (67.1%) was directly in line with pre-crisis levels. The average room rate reached US$186.55 compared to US$175.62 in 2012. The revenue per available room (revPAR) also grew in the period from US$116.42 to US$125.20. There was no month during the year in which either of these indicators fell below the 2012 level. The number of available rooms remained unchanged but room revenue increased by 7.6% (refer to Table 3.1). Table 4.1: Estimates of Visitor Expenditure(US$ M)?20092010201120122013Total24,419.1 25,497.0 26,460.6 27,413.228,054.9Y-o-Y % -10.24.43.83.62.3Source: CTO Member Countries and CTO estimatesTable 3.1: Caribbean Hotel Performance 2009-2013(January-December *)20092010201120122013% ChgPercent Room Occupancy (%)61.661.161.866.367.11.2Average Room Rate (US$)156.32161.41167.56175.62186.556.2revPAR (US$)96.2598.66103.59116.42125.207.6% change Room Revenue-17.14.46.28.97.6-16.43.85.210.97.6%changeRoom Avail0.80.50.9-1.80.0Notes: *- As reported in given year. The information contained in this table is based upon independent surveys and research from sources considered reliable but no representation is made as to its completeness or accuracy.Copyright: 2011 Smith Travel Research ?4. Visitor SpendingThe collection and tabulation of visitor expenditure data is primarily obtained through the more rigorous process of surveying visitors at the ports of departure lags behind those of visitor arrivals statistics. Thus official expenditure data for 2013 is not generally available yet. However, CTO estimated that visitors spent US$28.1 billion regionally, an increase of 2.3% when compared to 2012. The positive outcome is supported by the fact that all leading hotel performance indicators are positive and the recent rising trends of visitors spending.5. Air CapacityHigh oil prices, relatively weak economic growth and price wars between the low cost carriers and legacy airlines, have been part of the aviation landscape in recent times. Despite these hindrances the demand for air travel, driven by improved industry efficiency, remains robust. For 2013, the International Civil Aviation Organization, (ICAO) estimated that 3.1 billion passengers travelled through the air transport network and that the number of aircraft departures, grew by over one million to a new record of 33.0 million.Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) accounted for 5% of the world air transport market, only ahead of Africa (2%), but its growth in 2013 of 6.3% was higher than the world average (5.2%), Europe (3.8%) and North America (2.2%). The fastest growing regions are the Middle East (11.2%), Asia and Pacific (7.2%) and Africa (7.0%). When only international passengers are considered, LAC region has the second highest growth rate of 8.6%. The load factor in the region (76.1%) was slightly below the global average of 79.1%6. Summary/Conclusion and OutlookIt is expected that 2014 will be a better year generally. According to the IMF, the impetus for global growth should come largely from recovery in advanced economies. Our main markets from which tourists originate are expected to grow between 1% (Euro zone) and 2.8 % (USA). The demand for travel will remain buoyant and the Caribbean should expect tourist arrivals to increase between 2% and 3% in 2014. Cruise activity should pick up as well, more ships are being delivered, several of which will be deployed in regional waters. For 2014, cruise passenger arrivals should increase by about 3%.About the Caribbean Tourism OrganizationThe Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), with headquarters in Barbados and offices in New York and London, is the Caribbean’s tourism development agency comprising membership of over 30 countries and territories including Dutch, English, French and Spanish, as well as a myriad of private sector allied members. The CTO’s vision is to position the Caribbean as the most desirable, year round, warm weather destination, and its purpose is Leading Sustainable Tourism - One Sea, One Voice, One Caribbean. Among the benefits to its members the organization provides specialized support and technical assistance in sustainable tourism development, marketing, communications, advocacy, human resource development, research and information technology. In addition the CTO, in partnership with the Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Association, jointly and equally owns the Caribbean Tourism Development Company, a marketing and business development entity dedicated to promoting the Caribbean brand worldwide.The CTO’s Headquarters is located at Baobab Tower, Warrens, St. Michael, Barbados BB 22026; Tel: (246) 427-5242; Fax: (246) 429-3065; E-mail: CTObarbados@. The CTO’s New York office is located at 80 Broad St., Suite 3302, New York, NY 10004, USA: Tel: (212) 635-9530; Fax: (212) 635-9511; E-mail: CTOny@; The CTO’s London office is located at The Quadrant, Richmond, Surrey TW9 1BP, England. Tel: 011 44 208 948 0057; Fax: 011 44 208 948 0067; E-mail: CTOlondon@;For more information on the Caribbean Tourism Organization please visit . Get the latest CTO updates on Twitter at . Connect with CTO on Facebook at Table 1A - Tourist (Stop-Over) Arrivals and Cruise Passenger Visits in 2013DestinationTourist ArrivalsCruise Passenger VisitsPeriodTourists% Change2013/12PeriodCruisePassengers% Change2013/12Anguilla Jan-Nov61,0066.2---Antigua & Barbuda *Jan-Jul149,464-5.4Jan-Aug379,291-1.1ArubaJan-Dec979,2568.3Jan-Oct523,78325.4BahamasJan-Oct1,136,898-5.3Jan-Nov4,174,7026.1Barbados PJan-Nov457,493-5.5Jan-Nov490,99911.0Belize PJan-Nov263,0657.0Jan-Oct521,5366.7BermudaJan-Nov223,0657.0Jan-Nov319,459-15.4Bonaire---Jan-Sep96,818-10.7British Virgin IslandsJan-Sep281,8313.7Jan-Sep263,961-7.7Cayman IslandsJan-Dec345,3877.0Jan-Dec1,375,872-8.7Cozumel (Mexico)---Jan-Nov2,414,824-1.6Cuba Jan-Nov2,544,308-0.5---CuracaoJan-Dec440,0444.9Jan-Dec610,18641.4Dominica PJan-Oct65,895-0.9Jan-Nov176,601-20.6Dominican Republic *Jan-Dec4,689,7702.8Jan-Oct299,82812.4GrenadaJan-Sep89,070-0.8Jan-Jun133,165-21.8Guyana n ***Jan-Oct165,84111.6---HaitiJan-Mar99,63720.3Jan-Aug438,5961.6JamaicaJan-Nov1,807,0620.7Jan-Nov1,105,192-5.9MartiniqueJan-Dec489,7060.3Jan-Dec103,77011.0MontserratJan-Sep5,15137.9---Puerto Rico **Jan-Sep1,217,6551.5Jan-Sep835,6408.9Saint Lucia Jan-Dec318,6263.9Jan-Dec594,1183.9St. Kitts & Nevis ^Jan-Oct82,5403.0---St. Maarten Jan-Sep351,7891.3Jan-Sep1,248,323-3.1St. Vincent & the G’dinesJan-Oct57,548-4.7Jan-Oct58,75318.4SurinameJan-Sep182,4024.3---Turks & Caicos islands---Jan-Apr217,383-25.1US Virgin IslandsJan-Oct579,614-5.5Jan-Dec1,998,5794.9Notes:- * Non-Resident Air Arrivals; **Non-Resident Hotel registrations only; *** From 2013, Guyana’s figures include arrivals at the land borders(Moleson Creek & Lethem) which were previously not captured; - No Cruise Figures are Reported, ^ Excludes data from Vance M. Amory Int’l Airport in Nevis ; P Preliminary figures; n New Series; N.B: Figures are subject to revision by reporting countries Source - Data supplied by member countries and available as at SAVEDATE \@ "MMMM d, yyyy" February 8, 2014Table A2 - Arrivals by Main Market - 2013DestinationPeriodUnited StatesCanadaEuropeOtherTotalTourists% ch.Tourists% ch.Tourists% ch.Tourists% ch.Tourists% ch.Anguilla Jan-Nov39,7157.43,2008.76,5672.811,5243.361,0066.2Antigua & Barbuda *Jan-Jul57,013-10.420,71828.651,743-6.419,990-12.9149,464-5.4ArubaJan-Dec556,2584.844,338-3.477,006-3.2`301,65421.8979,2568.3BahamasJan-Oct897,277-6.696,377-8.665,2990.577,9452.21,136,898-5.8Barbados PJan-Nov108,447-8.759,689-6.1186,412-0.7102,945-9.6457,493-5.5Belize PJan-Nov164,0024.323,21011.528,79811.047,05512.7225,6547.6Bermuda *Jan-Nov162,9801.225,354-11.027,17811.58,23416.1223,7461.2Cayman IslandsJan-Dec265,4384.823,640-1.927,81330.028,49624.1345,3877.4Cuba 1 Jan-Oct--904,8291.8523,898-17.0881,3157.62,310,042-1.3CuracaoJan-Dec61,4770.09,568-1.4175,2170.8193,78211.0440,0444.9Dominica PJan-Sep14,246-4.32,221-1.19,6813.231,149-4.857,297-3.3Dominican Republic *Jan-Dec1,587,4049.0684,071-0.31,128,765-1.11,289,5300.94,689,7702.0GrenadaJan-Sep22,79010.87,21536.220,443-16.038,622-2.389,070-0.8Guyana n ***Jan-Oct69,294-17.820,826-0.18,17812.367,54386.7165,84111.6JamaicaJan-Nov1,152,9630.8349,816-1.8211,8105.592,473-0.31,807,0620.7MontserratJan-Sep1,22921.638353.21,63673.51,90324.25,15137.9Puerto Rico **Jan-Sep1,111,7231.916,529-9.023,027-0.866,376-1.01,217,6551.5Saint Lucia Jan-Dec128,33111.535,985-4.688,492-5.265,8188.5318,6263.9St. Kitts & Nevis ^Jan-Oct53,9633.65,3270.97,6679.615,583-1.282,5403.0St. Maarten *Jan-Sep187,5501.533,31713.777,416-2.653,506-0.5351,7891.3St. Vincent & the G’dinesJan-Oct15,896-8.35,625-0.716,101-0.519,926-6.157,548-4.7SurinameJan-Sep5,374-10.91,325-21.272,551-7.6103,15216.4182,4024.3Notes: * Non-Resident Air Arrivals; **Non-Resident Hotel registrations only; *** From 2013, Guyana’s figures include arrivals at the land borders(Moleson Creek & Lethem) which were previously not captured; P Preliminary figures; n New Series N.B U.S.V.I reported figures in this tables are Hotel Registrations whereas they reported Stay Over totals are Air Arrivals Figures are subject to revision by reporting countries 1 USA total included in Other ^ Excludes data from Vance M. Amory Int’l Airport in NevisSource - Data supplied by member countries and available as at SAVEDATE \@ "MMMM d, yyyy"February 8, 2014Glossary of Tourism IndicatorsTourists - visitors staying at least 24 hours in the country visitedSame-day - visitors staying less than 24 hours in the country visited. Cruise Passengers are regarded as a special type of same-day visitor (even if the ship overnights at the port).Yacht Visitors are included among the tourist (stay-over) or same day populations based on their length of stay.Length of Stay - Obtained by dividing the number of overnight stays by the number of arrivals. This is usually calculated by country of residence of the guest and the type of accommodation.Occupancy Rate - Provides information on differences in the use between various types of accommodation and when measured on a monthly basis measures the seasonal patterns in occupancy. Occupancy can be divided into; Bed Occupancy - The gross occupancy rate of bed places is calculated by dividing the hotel overnight stays by the product of bed places on offer and the number of days in the corresponding month for the same group of establishments, then multiplying the quotient by 100 to express as a percentage.Room Occupancy Rate - For Hotels and similar establishments the net rate of room occupancy is a measure of capacity utilization. It is calculated by dividing the monthly or yearly sum of occupied rooms by the number of rooms available for use, then multiplying the quotient by 100 to express as a percentage.Tourism Expenditure - the total consumption expenditure made by a visitor for and during his or her trip and stay at a destination. This can be broken down into;international and domestic tourism expenditureExpenditure on Same-day visitsthe products to which the expenditure relates to (e.g accommodation, meals and drinks, shopping, entertainment etc...)Average Daily Rate (ADR) - Room revenue divided by rooms sold, displayed as the average rental rate for a single room.Percent Change - Amount of growth - up, flat, or down - this period versus same period last year (month or year-to-date). Calculated as ((TY - LY) / LY) * 100.Revenue (Room Revenue) - Total room revenue generated from the sale or rental of rooms.RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) - Room revenue divided by rooms available. Regional GroupingsCaribbean:OECS Countries - Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, Saint Lucia, St Kitts & Nevis, St Vincent & GrenadinesOther Commonwealth Countries - Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Is., Cayman Islands, Guyana , Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Turks & Caicos IslandsCommonwealth Countries - OECS + Other CommonwealthDutch Caribbean - Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Saba, St Eustatius, St MaartenFrench Caribbean - Guadeloupe, MartiniqueUS Territories - Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands Other Caribbean - Cancun, Cozumel, Cuba, Dom Republic, Haiti, SurinameCARICOM - Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Lucia, St Kitts & Nevis, St Vincent & Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & TobagoSouth America- Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela ................
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