Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical

Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,

& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.

May 28, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

1

Global Growth Barometer

2

Economic Surprise Index

3

Investors Intelligence Sentiment

4

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

5

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

6

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

7

AAII Sentiment

8

Volatility

9

Volume

10

Dow Theory

11

S&P 500 Moving Averages

12-13

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

14

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 15

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50016

May 28, 2020 / Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Figure 1.

850

3500

S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

750

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index

650

5/28

3000

2500

550

2000

450

1500

5/28

350

1000



250

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 2.

-100

3500

S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

300

700 1100

5/28

3000

1500

S&P 500 Index

1900

2300

2700

3100

Initial Unemployment Claims

3500

(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,

inverted scale) 3900

4300

2500 5/23

2000

1500

4700 5100 5500

1000

5900



6300

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / May 28, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Global Growth Barometer

Figure 3.

3500

YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500

3000 YRI Global Growth Barometer* (796.0) S&P 500 Index (3029.7)

2500

3500

5/28

3000

2500

2000

2000

1500

1500

1000

1000 5/28

500 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

500

2020 2021

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 4.

200

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

175 S&P 500 Index

Brent Crude Oil Price*

150

(dollars per barrel)

125

3500

5/28

3000

2500

100

2000

75 1500

50

5/27

1000

25



0

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

* Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 2 / May 28, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Economic Surprise Index

Figure 5.

800

200

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)

600

150

400

100

200

50

0

5/28

0

-200

5/28

-50

-400

-100

-600

S&P 500 minus its

-150

200 day-moving average

-800

-200

Economic Surprise Index



-1000

-250

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

Figure 6.

23

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent)

21

150

5/21

100

19

50

17

0

15

5/28

-50

13

-100

S&P 500 Forward P/E*

11

Economic Surprise Index

-150



9

-200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Citigroup.

Page 3 / May 28, 2020 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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