3HourInvestor – ASX Stock portfolio management for busy …



Note this is part 2 of Week 18’s reportApologies for truncated reportStatus of US and Aus Markets. GreenREDUSA DJA1USA S&P5001USA Nasdaq1USA Russell 20001USA VIX (inverted (means Green is shown as RED)1USA DJA Futures1USA S&P 500 Futures1USA NASDAQ Futures1USA Russell 2000 Futures1Aus XJOAI1AUS XMD1AUS XSOAI1AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted)1Overall market signals look mostly GREEN to me. ASX Indices with ROAR above 20%New section for this report. Here are the ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR (6 months rather than annual) above 20%. (purpose of this section….if an index is going up…perhaps consider looking at its component stocks to check for anything worth buying). (if it closed green for the week I’ll mention it)Indices going up at or > 20% ROAR (6 mths)Indices that are positive and over 10% over 6 months ROAR.XEC emerging companiesXEJ ASX 200 energyXMJ ASX 200 MaterialsXSOAI Small Ords total returnXGD ASX 300 GOLDXJR ASX 200 ResourcesXMM ASX 300 Metals Mining.Looking at the above table the following might be reasonable conclusion. “ if you’re not in small companies and mining companies…you’re not where the growth is in our market!”. Does any of your portfolio fit with that conclusion? If not what are you going to do about it or do you have a good reason to stay as you are? VALUE index updateLet’s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteriaFinancial health = strong or satisfactoryDividend yield >2.5%PE <15Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5Enterprise value above $500mExcludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull) We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then “buying value stocks might be a good strategy”….If there are few perhaps it indicates we’re at the top of the market?Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this weekWe’re fully invested at the moment…so we won’t be buying unless one of our stocks is sold.Strategy 1 securitiesStrategy 2 StocksA2M*ABP*AGIBPT*ALU*CDA*APX*CSR*AWC*CTXBKLHFA*CGC*KMD*CIM*NHCGDIRCGIAA*RIOIEM*VLW*IFLIZZMIN*MLDMTRNHCORARFF*SDATWE*WHC*Note this week I’ve completely updated the list and personally would be prepared to buy any of the stocks or ETFs on the above list provided that the markets were trending up on the day of buying. As you can see I do already personally own many of the stocks on the list above.Strategy one = stocks with (a) acceptable fundamentals plus (b) are rising at over 20% (or close) on a 6 month ROAR basis or are ETFs with a growing price trendStrategy two = stocks with high return on assets and low PE and acceptable market support. Bonus Charts: In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)ChartCommentBKLStrong StockROA 19%+EPSG June 18 +28% forecastPEG 0.95 forecastAverage daily trade $5.2mDiv Yield above 4% (forecast)Is Blackmores back? Maybe worth a lookIEM*5, 3 and 1 yr return: 9%, 9% and 20%. Div yield about 1%Daily Turnover about $1mAs you can see this ETF has given a steady return over the past 5 years and provides a way to diversify your portfolio away from Australia and is currently trending up. What’s not to like?SDA Speedcast Australia3 and 1 year returns are 33% and 23% PE is 18 prospective and PEG is 0.35I’ve not come across this company before and yet I like what I see, perhaps worth a look for your portfolioParting commentEach of these charts show some interesting moves in the past week.USA’s small companies index is roaring up over the past few weeksAustralia’s small ordinaries index has also popped up in recent weeks after about a year in the doldrumsMaybe the market is seeing value at the smaller end of the market.Bond prices are taking a bit of a dive (implying higher interest rates)…the money seems to be going into small stocks What does it all mean? Here are the things that I remind myself ofWe are at least one day closer to a big correctionI have to be in the market to make a return…If I’m out of the market my return is fixed in Australian dollars are below 2% which is not a happy place to be.If I’m in the market I must be ready to sellThings change, views change, markets shift…often not that quickly…but fast enough that I have to be nimble with my views and respond accordingly. If I sit still I’ll lose money.What are you watching for in regards to your portfolios?Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I’m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service…it’s a great service and I feel great value for money!I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll usually mark the ones that I own with (**)…however it’s safe for you to imagine that I’m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here. ................
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