Journalism 499 - University of Southern California



IR331: The Global Economy 2030

Fall 2017

Professor: John Eatwell

Email je24@cam.ac.uk

Office: KAP360

Office Hours Tuesdays 4:00-5:00 and by appointment

Class: TT 2:00 - 3:20

Professor: Jonathan D. Aronson

Email aronson@usc.edu

Office: KER206 but will meet in VKC

Office Hours Tuesdays 3:30-5:00 and by appointment

Class: TT 2:00 - 3:20

TA: Mayaguez (Guez) Salinas

Email: mjsalina@usc.edu

Office Hours: TBD

The Global Economy 2030

This is not a course in prediction or crystal ball gazing - leave that to the fortunetellers. Precise economic predictions 20 years ahead are almost invariably wrong (just think of what someone in 1997 would have predicted for the global economy when there was no Google (1998), no Facebook (2004), Amazon (1994) was a child of 3, and the Chinese economy was still a fledgling economy. Instead, what the course seeks to do is to identify some of the main forces (drivers) that will shape the global economy in 2030, to provide a “tool-kit” for evaluating those forces, and to suggest some ways in which they may work out. (You are certainly free to contest our suggestions and provide your own suggestions.)

Along the way a significant amount of macroeconomics and finance will be covered. But this will be integrated with a discussion of practical issues in the global economy. A major part of the course will be about the United States (which remains largest economy in the world). But recent financial, economic, and political swings have taught, if it wasn’t realized before, that America’s performance is linked to the performance of the global economy as a whole.

John Eatwell anchors the course with first set of lectures – introducing the basic analytical concepts needed to start to understand what is happening in the global economy. Jonathan Aronson will then take over, preparing, on most Tuesdays, the discussion that will take place with visiting speakers on Thursdays.

Guest Lecturers will include:

Don Harris (Stanford – Economics) on Development issues (Sep 7)

Tom Hazlett (Clemson – Economics) on Regulation/Deregulation (Sep 28)

Gillian Tett (FT editor) on global finance (Oct 12 or 19)

Charles Clarke (was UK Home Secretary) on Terror and Security (Oct 26)

Baizhu Chen (USC-Marshall) on the Challenge of China (Nov 2)

Steve Lund (USC Earth Science) on Geography… (Nov 7)

Katie Purvis-Roberts (Claremont) on Environmental policy (Nov 9)

Guest Lecturer on Technology on Technology (Nov 14)

Jake Soll (USC-History) on Greece & The Eurozone (Nov 28)

Requirements:

1) 45% of your grade will be based on three closed-book, mid-term examinations that will cover the content of the early readings and lectures delivered by John Eatwell.

(Examinations in Class on September 14th (15% of grade), October 5th (15% of grade), and October 24th (15% of grade)

2) 15% of your grade will be based on the final examination (a non-cumulative exam that is in effect a fourth mid-term) on December 8th.

3) 30% of your grade will be based on a final project paper. Due in class on November 30th

4) 10% of you grade will be based on class & office hour participation and interaction.

Required Books for the Global Economy 2030

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig (2013) The Bankers’ New Clothes: what’s wrong with banking and what to do about it. Princeton University Press

Peter F. Cowhey and Jonathan Aronson, (2017) Digital DNA: Implications of the Information and Production Disruption for Global Governance. Oxford University Press

John Eatwell and Lance Taylor (2000) Global Finance at Risk: the case for international regulation, The New Press

John Eatwell and Murray Milgate (2011) The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics. Oxford University Press

Barry Eichengreen (2011) Exorbitant Privilege: the rise and fall of the dollar. Oxford University Press

Ruchir Sharma, (2016) The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World. W.W. Norton.

Reference

For basic concepts in macroeconomics it may prove valuable to refer to a basic textbook, such as N. Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Macroeconomics

Your Project Paper/Report

A description of possible project topics will be provided in class in early October. Students may undertake a topic not on the initial list if first approved by the faculty. We are considering, but have not yet decided, whether to permit group projects.

Academic Integrity:

The School of International Relations is committed to upholding the University’s Academic Integrity code as detailed in the Scampus Guide. It is the policy of the SIR to report all violations of the academic code. Any serious violation or pattern of violations of the Academic Integrity Code will result in the student’s expulsion from the International Relations major or minors. The University may also decide on further consequences.

Disability Accommodation:

Students requesting academic accommodations based on disability are required to register with Disability Services and Programs (DSP) each semester.  A letter of verification for approved accommodations can be obtained from DSP when adequate documentation is filed.  Please be sure the letter is delivered to me as early in the semester as possible.  DSP is open M-F, 8:30-5:00pm.  The office is in STU 301 and their phone is 740-0776.

Part I: The toolkit – concepts and methods for analyzing economic trends

Week 1:

Aug 22: The Problem: Thinking about the Global Economy 2030 (JE)

John Eatwell and Lance Taylor, Global Finance at Risk, pp. 1-28.

Adair Turner, Wealth, debt, inequality and low interest rates: four big trends and some implications,

Slides associated with this lecture are available at:

Aug 24: Economic Categories: National Income, Growth and Distribution (JE)

National Income Accounting (simple) MACROECON/PPTs/Chap005.ppt

Barry Wickes, Lecture Notes on National Income Accounting, (more difficult)

Gregory Mankiw, Macroeconomics, Ch. 1

Week 2:

Aug 29: Money, Finance and Interest Rates (JE)

Gregory Mankiw, Macroeconomics, Chaps. 13-14.

Ruchir Sharma, The Rise and Fall of Nations, Ch. 9, pp. 262-296.

Aug 31: The Determination of Economic Output (JE)

Gregory Mankiw, Macroeconomics, Chaps. 20-21.

John Eatwell and Murray Milgate, The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics. Preamble, Ch.1 and Chaps. 8-10, pp. 1-20, 155-231.

Week 3:

Sep 5: The Distribution of Income (JE)

Ruchir Sharma, The Rise and Fall of Nations, Ch. 3, pp. 95-131.

Read reviews of Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Harvard University Press, 2014.

The Guardian,

James Galbraith in Dissent



Lawrence Summers in Democracy ?

Sep 7: Guest Lecture: Don Harris (Stanford Economics)

Week 4:

Sep 12: International Monetary Policy (JE)

Gregory Mankiw, Macroeconomics, Chaps. 18-19.

Barry Eichengreen, Exorbitant Privilege, Chaps. 1-4. pp. 1-96.

John Eatwell and Lance Taylor, Global Finance at Risk, Chaps. 2-3, pp. 29-95,

Sep 14: First Mid-Term Exam (15%)

Week 5:

Sept. 19: The Financial Crisis and the Future of Finance (JE)

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig, The Bankers’ New Clothes, Intro & Part I, pp. 1-78.

Sep 21: International Trade and Finance (JE)

John Eatwell and Lance Taylor, Global Finance at Risk, Chaps. 4-5, pp. 96-179.

Ruchir Sharma, The Rise and Fall of Nations, Ch. 5, pp. 166-200.

Week 6:

Sep 26: The Role of the State (JE)

Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig, The Bankers’ New Clothes, Part III, pp. 167-228.

John Eatwell and Murray Milgate, The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics, Chaps. 6, 7, and 12, pp. 193-250, and 251-272.

Sep 28: Guest Lecture on Regulation: Tom Hazlett, former FCC chief economist

Part II: Issues and Guest Lectures

Week 7:

Oct 3: (Driver): Demography and Migration (JA)

Watch TED Talk: Jared Diamond: How societies can grow old better



Watch TED Talk: Hans Rosling, “Religions and Babies,”

Ruchir Sharma, The Rise and Fall of Nations, Prologue, Introduction, and Chapter 1, pp. vii-xii and pp. 1-57.

Oct 5: Second Midterm Exam (15%)

Week 8:

Oct 10: (Driver): International Linkages and Challenges (JA)

Peter Cowhey and Jonathan Aronson, Digital DNA: Prologue and Ch. 1, pp. xi-xxi and 3-22.

Oct 12: Guest Lecture: Gillian Tett (Editor FT)

Week 9:

Oct 17: (Driver) Innovation and Technology (JA)

Peter F. Cowhey and Jonathan Aronson, Digital DNA: Ch. 2, pp. 23-48.

Craig Lambert, “Disruptive Genius: Innovation guru Clayton Christensen on spreading his gospel, the Gospel, and how to win with the electric car,” Harvard Magazine, July-August 2014. (

Jill Lepore, “The Disruption Machine: What the gospel of innovation gets wrong, The New Yorker, June 23, 2014 (

WATCH: Dan Breznitz, Strategies for Innovation Based Growth (Online at: )

Ruchir Sharma, The Rise and Fall of Nations, Ch. 6, pp. 201-233.

Oct 19: The Information and Production Disruption (JA)

Peter Cowhey and Jonathan Aronson, Digital DNA: Ch. 3-4, pp. 49-93.

Week 10:

Oct 24: Review and Third Midterm Exam (15%)

Oct 26: Guest Lecture by Charles Clarke

Week 11:

Oct 31: Democracy, Authoritarianism, & the Future of the State and Liberty (JA)

Ruchir Sharma, The Rise and Fall of Nations, Ch. 4, pp. 132-165.

Peter Cowhey and Jonathan Aronson, Digital DNA: Ch. 5, pp. 94-122.

Nov 2: Guest Lecture: Baizhu Chen (USC) on the Challenge of China

Davfid Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson, “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects on Import Competition in the United States,” American Economic Review (October 2013), 2121-2168. Online at:

Week 12:

Nov 7: Geology, Environment and Climate Change (JA) or Steve Lund (USC) Earth Science

Read: Introductory Essay on Climate Change at:

Review: Environmental Policy,  Scientific American, August 2014,

Watch: James Hansen, “Why I must speak out about climate change,” at

Nov 9: Katie Purvis-Rogers (Claremont) Environment

Gabe Kahn, “Did California Figure Out How to Fix Global Warming?” researched and reported. At:

Watch TED Talk by Allan Savory: “How to fight desertification and reverse climate change,” at

Watch: TED Talk by Amory Lovins, “A 40-Year Plan for Energy,”

Week 13:

Nov 14 Guest Lecture: on Technology: (Maybe Dinesh Moorjani or Flint Dille)

Nov 16: (Driver): Security and Privacy (JA)

Peter Cowhey and Jonathan Aronson, Digital DNA, Chaps. 7-8, pp. 187-216.

Week 14:

Nov 21 (Driver): The Web, the Cloud, and Social Networking (JA)

Kenneth Neil Cukier and Victor Mayer-Schönberger, “The Rise of Big Data: How It's Changing the Way We Think About the World,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2013.

Peter Cowhey and Jonathan Aronson, Digital DNA: Ch. 6, pp. 125-166.

Nov 23: Thanksgiving: No Class

Week 15:

Nov 28: Guest Lecture: Jake Soll (USC-History) Greece and the Eurozone

Peter Cowhey and Jonathan Aronson, Digital DNA: Ch. 9, pp. 233-261.

Nov 30: Rethinking Economic Policy (JE)

Ruchir Sharma, The Rise and Fall of Nations, Chapter 10, pp. 329-357.

Reread: Adair Turner, Wealth, debt, inequality and low interest rates: four big trends and some implications,

Dec 7: Thursday, 2-4: FINAL EXAMINATION

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