DOE Presentation to NAS H2 Feedstock Study Committee
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
National Academy of Engineering (NAE)
Institute of Medicine (IOM)
National Research Council (NRC)
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)
Tentative Agenda
Workshop on Trends in Oil Supply and Demand and Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production
Location: AAAS Building
1200 New York Avenue, NW
Auditorium
Washington, D.C. 20005
October 20-21, 2005
Objectives
● Foster dialogue and communication about trends in global oil supply & demand, the potential for peaking of global production of conventional oil, the adequacy of data and analysis, and the options for providing for future demand.
● Suggest follow-on studies that would help governmental decision makers make informed decisions.
Thursday, October 20
SETTING THE STAGE Mike Ramage Chair
7:30 a.m. Sign In
8:00-8:10 Overview of plan for the workshop
Michael Ramage, Chairman, Workshop Planning Group (retired Executive Vice President, ExxonMobil R&D Company)
8:10-8:45 Issues in the ‘Peaking of Global Oil Production’ Debate
David Greene, Corporate Fellow, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
8:45-9:20 World Oil Demand: Key Trends and Uncertainties
Nicola Pochettino, Senior Energy Analyst, International Energy Agency
9:20-9:55 Global Overview of Petroleum Resources
Thomas Ahlbrandt, Project Chief, United States Geological Survey
FUTURE GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE Scott Tinker Chair
9:55-10:00 Introduction
Scott Tinker, Director, Bureau of Economic Geology, and Dept. of Geological Sciences, University of Texas, Austin
10:00-10:35 A View from CERA
Peter Jackson, Cambridge Energy Research Associates
10:35-11:10 A Case for a Near-term Peak in Global Oil Production
Jeremy Gilbert, Barrelmore Ltd.
11:10-11:45 Questions Regarding Saudi Arabian Petroleum Supplies
Matt Simmons, Simmons & Company International
11:45-12:20pm Exploration Trends, Diminishing Success & Implications for Future Crude Supplies
Michael Rodgers, Senior Director, E&P Portfolio and Business Development Unit, PFC Energy
12:20-1:40 Recess
1:40-2:15 The View from ExxonMobil
Scott Nauman, Manager, Energy & Economics, Corporate Planning Department, ExxonMobil Corporation
2:15-2:50 Looking In from the Outside
Kjell Aleklett, Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), & Professor of Physics, Uppsala University
2:50-3:25 A View of Global Oil Peaking
Herman Franssen, President, International Energy Associates, Inc.
3:25-4:00 OPEC Outlook on Oil Supply and Demand
Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Acting Secretary General, OPEC
4:00-5:15 Group Discussion
5:15 Adjourn
Friday, October 21
MITIGATION OPTIONS AND TIME TO IMPLEMENTATION David Greene Chair
7:30 a.m. Sign In
8:00- 8:05 Introduction
David Greene, Corporate Fellow, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
8:05- 8:50 Overview of Mitigation Strategies
Robert Hirsch, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
8:50- 9:35 Key Technology Trends Impacting Exploration & Production
Donald Paul , Chief Technology Officer, Chevron Corporation
9:35- 10:10 The Potential of Heavy Oil
Robert Heinemann, President & CEO, Berry Petroleum Company
10:10- 10:45 Oil Sands Development and Future Outlook
Eddy Isaacs, Managing Director, Alberta Energy Research Institute
10:45- 11:20 The Potential of Shale Oil
Stephen Mut, Shell Exploration & Production Company
11:20- 11:55 Producing Liquid Fuels from Coal
David Gray, Director of Energy Systems Analysis, Mitretek Systems
11:55-1:00pm Recess
1:00- 1:35 Liquid Fuels from Natural Gas
Emil Jacobs, ExxonMobil Research & Engineering Co.
1:35- 2:10 Producing Liquid Fuels from Biomass
Daniel Sperling, Professor & Director, Institute for Transportation Studies, University of California—Davis
2:10-2:55 Opportunities for Reducing Oil Demand for Transportation
John Heywood, Director, Sloan Automotive Laboratory, MIT
2:55-3:10 Break
POTENTIAL FOLLOW-UP STUDIES & ACTIVITIES Bob Hirsch Chair
3:10- 3:15 Overview and purpose of the session
Robert Hirsch, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
3:15- 4:30 Group Discussion
4:30-5:00 Summary of salient points from the group discussions and suggestions for follow-on studies
Robert Hirsch, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)
5:00 Adjourn
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